FinalChildren's Mercy Park · Kansas City
Real Salt Lake
3–1Final
Sporting KC
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSL | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| SK | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals under 5.5 53¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Current Kalshi rung is 5.5, with Over 5.5 mid-price 0.47; the model makes two or fewer additional goals roughly 65%, above the 53c Under price.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · +4% return
- Total goals under 5.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current Kalshi rung is 5.5, with Over 5.5 mid-price 0.47; the model makes two or fewer additional goals roughly 65%, above the 53c Under price.
- Secondary tempo read is not hot: PPDA 15.63 Sporting KC / 13.53 Real Salt Lake, field-tilt proxies 0.48 / 0.44; both sides have three days rest.
- Live projection assumes the pregame 3.10-goal rate persists; three goals in the opening 29 minutes create substantial pace uncertainty.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opponent-adjusted xG total is 3.10: SKC attack/defense 1.62/1.86, RSL 1.39/1.35.
- Pinnacle independently shows an off-line 3.25 total with Under -117; band is RECOMMENDED.
- Only 9 and 10 xG-covered matches support the sides; the sub-12 sample increases model variance.
- Match total under 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates set Sporting KC at 1.48 and Real Salt Lake at 1.62 goals; combined mean 3.10.
- Pinnacle’s current 3.25 total at -107/-107 is the sharp anchor for the comparison.
- The warehouse model’s own lambda pair is higher at 1.57/1.85, implying only 33.6% under 2.5.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sporting KC scoring read: blended xG lambda 1.60 from 1.62 opp-adjusted xGF and 1.59 RSL xGA; pregame P(score) 79.9%.
- Real Salt Lake scoring read: blended lambda 1.75 from 1.39 opp-adjusted xGF and 2.12 Sporting KC xGA; pregame P(score) 82.6%, symmetric pregame, but live 0-2 means only Sporting KC remains needed.
- The xG features are pregame, not a live-state model; Sporting KC trailing 0-2 may attack more aggressively and raise its remaining scoring chance.
- Real Salt Lake spread 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Inputs: Sporting KC home xGF/xGA 1.62/2.12; Real Salt Lake away xGF/xGA 1.33/1.59; model lambdas are 1.57 home and 1.85 away.
- MLS empirical sample: 7 of 120 comparable recent matches were away wins by 3+, while the matchup model raises this rung because of the away/home scoring-rate inputs.
- The 9/10-match xG base is adequate but not deep; the 120-match MLS distribution is league-wide rather than team-specific.
- Real Salt Lake spread YES 1.5+335%Won
Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 MLS margins are lumpy: 0 goals 25.9%, +1 22.3%, +2 13.3%; this is a rung-specific PROJECTION.
- no independent sharp full-match handicap price; therefore Band LEAN, not Recommended.
- RSL must win by at least two; a draw, loss, or one-goal RSL win loses.
Questions
Who won Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting KC?
Real Salt Lake won 3-1 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.