Get app
FinalSports Illustrated Stadium · Harrison
Toronto
2–0Final
New York RB
Score by period
Team12T
TORO112
NYR000

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total goals under 3.5 49¢

Why Two Nil likes it: xG 2.81 versus the live ladder's roughly 3.6, 3.7 tail-implied mean; mixed tempo profile (PPDA 11.13/15.30) supplies no hot-match bump.

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 5-0 on this game · +166% return

  1. Total goals under 3.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • xG 2.81 versus the live ladder's roughly 3.6, 3.7 tail-implied mean; mixed tempo profile (PPDA 11.13/15.30) supplies no hot-match bump.
    • Only 10 xG matches per side, below the brief's 12-match top-band threshold; the model number is less stable.
  2. Under 3.5 total goals
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.83 projected total goals (1.46 NYRB + 1.37 Toronto) implies 68.5% under 3.5.
    • Three or more goals loses; an early goal can create a high-variance open match.
  3. Both Teams To Score NO
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: NYRB scoring read ≈78% and Toronto ≈77% from 10/10 xG matches each; this is a symmetric both-sides-score case, not an asymmetric BTTS-NO setup.
    • Toronto has a 0% clean-sheet rate and allows 2.2 goals per match in the 10-match defensive sample, so the NO path is fragile.
  4. New York RB spread NO 1.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • λ New York RB 1.46, Toronto 1.37; opponent-adjusted xG inputs are 1.44/1.41 and 1.27/1.51.
  5. Toronto to winLong shot
    +355%Won

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 12.8-point model-versus-price gap remains after accounting for the three-way result.
    • Toronto's 1.37 away xG faces a New York RB defense allowing 1.71 home xGA.
    • Toronto is only 1-3-1 in its last five; New York RB is 3-2.

Questions

Who won Toronto vs. New York RB?

Toronto won 2-0 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.