Heat vs. RaptorsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalVideotron Centre · Quebec City
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 41 | 35 | 19 | 34 | 129 |
| TOR | 23 | 32 | 25 | 25 | 105 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame over 229.5 total points 53¢
Why Shot Clock likes it: Projection is approximately 232 points versus the exact 229.5 Kalshi rung; converted 53¢ is -113 American equivalent.
Shot ClockEven this season · 240 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-0 on this game · +90% return
- Game over 229.5 total points+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection is approximately 232 points versus the exact 229.5 Kalshi rung; converted 53¢ is -113 American equivalent.
- Toronto likely dictates the pace: L10 pace 100.6 versus 101.9 season; Miami is 104.3 versus 106.4, both recently slower.
- Efficiency read supports scoring: Miami 113.9 ORtg versus Toronto 110.4 DRtg; Toronto 112.9 ORtg versus Miami 111.8 DRtg.
- Availability remains unresolved: Dru Smith is questionable, Keshad Johnson is out, and Toronto lists Battle, Bittle, Anderson, and Graves questionable.
- Miami Heat +2.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Toronto's live injury report lists Kawhi Leonard ruled out, plus Kyle Anderson, Jamison Battle, Allen Graves, and Trayce Jackson-Davis.
- Warehouse baseline rates are Miami +1.0 net rating versus Toronto -0.9 before tip.
- The market still prices Toronto -2.5 despite the late Leonard absence.
- Preseason minutes and rest plans are not fully confirmed; Miami's Giannis Antetokounmpo availability is not explicitly confirmed.
Questions
Who won Heat vs. Raptors?
The Heat won 129-105 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.