Nuggets vs. JazzFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalDelta Center · Salt Lake City
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 24 | 41 | 30 | 22 | 117 |
| UTA | 31 | 28 | 22 | 25 | 106 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDenver Nuggets spread −1 50¢
Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: 2025 net rating: Denver +5.05 versus Utah -8.03, a 13.08-point baseline gap.
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 15% return this season · 84 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-0 on this game · +91% return
- Denver Nuggets spread −1+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2025 net rating: Denver +5.05 versus Utah -8.03, a 13.08-point baseline gap.
- 2025 point differential was +5.15 for Denver versus -8.43 for Utah.
- ProphetX offers Denver -1 at 50¢, materially below the prior-season team-strength gap.
- Neither team has a completed 2026 game; preseason rotation minutes are unknown.
- Game total under 230.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 206 points in the first preseason meeting; the same matchup stayed well below 230.5.
- Adelman is limiting key-starter minutes and using unproven rotation pieces, reducing Denver's offensive continuity.
- Hardy's fast preseason units have produced rushed possessions and turnovers; Utah's center rotation remains unsettled.
- Adelman specifically called for better shooting after Denver made 40% overall and 28% from three in the opener.
- Game total under 224.5 points+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Baseline: 98.0 blended possessions × 210.2 matchup efficiency implies 206.0 points.
- Utah pace 98.8 versus Denver 97.2; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0, with Utah the slight tempo side.
- First-quarter total of 55 implies a 220 pace; blending live pace with the baseline gives roughly 217, below 224.5.
- Each team has only one 2026 preseason game, making pace and efficiency estimates highly noisy.
Questions
Who won Nuggets vs. Jazz?
The Nuggets won 117–106 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.