Bulls vs. NuggetsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBall Arena · Denver
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 27 | 41 | 26 | 34 | 128 |
| DEN | 29 | 30 | 40 | 34 | 133 |
Top model pick, graded
WonChicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets over 234.5 total points (2026-10-11) 51¢
Why Snapp Decision of the Day likes it: Denver and Chicago averaged 239.0 and 237.8 total points per game, respectively, in the prior regular season.
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 4% this season · 2678 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-3 on this game · −51% return
- Game under 234.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 234.5 is 15.5 points above the teams' combined 2026 preseason scoring rates: Chicago 112.0, Denver 107.0.
- Denver is averaging 97.85 possessions in two 2026 preseason games; Chicago is at 103.8.
- David Adelman has the Nuggets' first 8, 9 rotation spots set and expects the starters to play this game, supporting controlled execution.
- Only two current preseason games per team create a thin pace and efficiency sample.
- Game under 230.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Chicago's current pace is 103.8 versus Denver's 97.85; Chicago is the slight tempo dictator, although both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0.
- Current two-game cross-efficiency math gives 218.3 points; blending that with each team's 2025 regular-season baseline of 238.5 gives a conservative 228.4 projection.
- The exact 230.5 rung is 2.1 points above the blended projection. Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; edge class: PROJECTION; band: LEAN.
- Buzelis and Tre Jones remain game-time decisions; Jalen Smith is questionable, while Claxton and Collins are out and Murray's availability is unconfirmed.
- Denver Nuggets −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Denver finished 54-28 with a +5.05 net rating; Chicago finished 31-51 at -5.02.
- The 10.1-point last-season net-rating gap supports a margin above the 7.5 threshold before home-court credit.
- Denver's coach said the starting lineup should play in this final preseason stretch; core rotation minutes are reportedly guaranteed.
- Preseason rotations are volatile; the starting group is expected, not yet an official confirmed lineup.
- Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets over 234.5 total points (2026-10-11)+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Denver and Chicago averaged 239.0 and 237.8 total points per game, respectively, in the prior regular season.
- The teams' average listed possessions were 102.2 for Denver and 105.2 for Chicago, supporting a high-tempo baseline.
- The total is 4.5 points below Denver's and 3.3 points below Chicago's prior-season average game totals.
- Those averages are from last season and both teams changed personnel materially.
Questions
Who won Bulls vs. Nuggets?
The Nuggets won 133–128 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.