Hawks vs. MavericksFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalAmerican Airlines Center · Dallas
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 39 | 34 | 29 | 33 | 135 |
| DAL | 34 | 20 | 24 | 33 | 111 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 250.5 points 51¢
Why Shot Clock likes it: Neither side clearly dictates tempo: Hawks 106.3 and Mavericks 105.6 possessions, both pace deltas 0.0.
Shot ClockUp 1% return this season · 238 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-1 on this game · −2% return
- Game total under 250.5 points+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Neither side clearly dictates tempo: Hawks 106.3 and Mavericks 105.6 possessions, both pace deltas 0.0.
- Efficiency projection: 106.0 possessions × 222.0 blended points/100 ≈235.3 pregame; live-start adjustment ≈245 total.
- Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only; edge class PROJECTION; band LEAN.
- 73 combined points with 25 seconds left in Q1 leaves 177.5 points to reach 250.5.
- Game total under 236.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 235.2 expected points from 105.95 possessions and blended matchup efficiency; 1.3 below the 236.5 rung.
- Tempo read is neutral, not inflated: Atlanta 106.3 pace and Dallas 105.6; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
- Blended scoring read: Atlanta offense/Dallas defense 111.55, Dallas offense/Atlanta defense 110.45 points per 100.
- Preseason samples are only 4 Atlanta games and 3 Dallas games; the 1.3-point projection gap is small.
Questions
Who won Hawks vs. Mavericks?
The Hawks won 135–111 on Friday, Oct 16, 2026.