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Spurs vs. MavericksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmerican Airlines Center · Dallas
Spurs
122–106Final
Mavericks
Score by period
Team1234T
SAS32362430122
DAL31292917106

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 230.5 51¢

Why High Bar likes it: Posted total is 230.5, above the 226.0 high-total threshold.

High BarUp 27% return this season · 32 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 17-7 on this game · +31% return

  1. Game total under 230.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    2 modelsHigh Bar, BETALAB 6.0
    Why 2 models like it
    High Bar
    • Posted total is 230.5, above the 226.0 high-total threshold.
    • Combined season and last-10 scoring average is 222.5 points (107.0 Spurs, 115.5 Mavericks).
    • Only two regular-season games support the current scoring sample; the fair number is highly uncertain.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • 227.1-point matchup estimate from current efficiency and 104.4-possession pace inputs.
    • Current two-game ratings: Spurs 101.0 offense, Mavericks 113.3 defense; Dallas offense 112.4, Spurs defense 108.5.
    • Only two current-season games per team; the estimate is heavily sample-sensitive.
  2. Dallas Mavericks +12.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Novig

    2 modelsPower Gap, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    Why 2 models like it
    Power Gap
    • Fair probability 90% for Dallas +12.5 after conservatively accounting for early-season uncertainty and availability risk.
    • Current regular-season net ratings are Dallas -0.9 and San Antonio -7.45; that is a 6.55-point Dallas edge before the 2.0-point home adjustment.
    • Dallas starters are only expected, not confirmed; Kyrie Irving is questionable and several Mavericks are out.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • San Antonio's lineup is confirmed, while Dallas remains expected with six listed outs, matching the market's current uncertainty.
    • Dallas' lineup is still expected rather than confirmed, and late rotation news could materially move a double-digit spread.
  3. game total under 231.52 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsPace Pair, Tempo Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    Pace Pair
    • sharp references fell from 231.5/230.5 to 230/229.5; ProphetX still posts 230.5.
    • Opponent-adjusted L10 profile: Dallas 105.2 pace, 110.6 offense/118.0 defense; San Antonio 104.2, 115.9/109.6.
    • Most likely loss: transition and three-point shot-making produce a 105-plus-possession game.
    Tempo Clock
    • Tempo Clock midpoint is 227, 4.5 points below the 231.5 rung.
    • Possession blend is about 103, 104: current paces are 106.0 and 102.8, with both teams playing the previous day.
    • Only two current-season games per team; the eight-game gate fails, so the prior-season blend caps this at LEAN.
  4. Game under 230.5 total points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total is about 227 points from a 104.4-possession matchup and blended offensive/defensive efficiencies.
    • Spurs average 101.0 offensive rating; Dallas allows 113.3, but San Antonio allows only 108.5.
    • Combined early-season three-point rates are modest: 12.3% Spurs and 14.9% Mavericks of field-goal attempts.
    • The estimate uses only two regular-season games per team, so efficiency and pace samples are very thin.
  5. Devin Vassell under 20 pointsFavorite
    +10%Won

    Taken at 91¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20-point rung is well above Vassell's 12.39-point average across 18 recent starts.
    • He stayed under 20 in 17 of those 18 starts; under in all seven 15+ blowout starts.
    • San Antonio blowout-over-12.5 rung is 59.5%, supporting meaningful starter-minute truncation.
    • The projected lineup is expected, not officially confirmed at this wake.
  6. Game total under 228.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    Crew CallUp 104% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NBA official assignment: Karl Lane, Tre Maddox and Phenizee Ransom; the 30-game crew sample averaged 38.23 fouls and 40.23 free throws.
    • That crew sample's 0.2063 free-throw rate is well below the latest league sample's 0.2567; both teams' current FTA/possession rates are also below league average.
    • The team profile is only two games old, and both projected lineups remain unconfirmed; Kyrie Irving is listed questionable.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Game under 233.5 total
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Novig

    Tired LegsUp 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams played regular-season games on Oct. 23, making this each club's second night of a back-to-back.
    • Projected lineups are not confirmed; Dallas has several questionable reserves, so late availability could change pace or scoring.
  2. Game total under 229.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Schedule Tax ContrarianUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season efficiency blend projects roughly 218 points, about 11 below 229.5.
    • Combined season scoring is 222.5 points per game; both teams are below 106 possessions in their latest games.
    • Dallas is on a compressed Wednesday-Friday-Saturday run and is missing Irving, Flagg, Lively II, Aldama and Martin.
    • Only two regular-season games per team make the efficiency sample thin and volatile.
  3. Game total under 224.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Novig

    Cheap SideUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 pace is 103.5 Spurs and 105.0 Mavericks versus a 104.8 league mean; scoring rates were 1.060 and 1.111 points per possession.
    • Cross-matched offense/defense produces roughly 227.6 points before rest; both teams are on back-to-backs.
    • Historical two-season back-to-back splits support roughly a 3-point reduction, placing the fair mean near 224.5 and Under probability near 50%.
    • Projected lineups are not confirmed; Kyrie Irving and Tobias Harris are among the listed questionables.
  4. San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks total under 229
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Stiff Line PairDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cooper Flagg is officially out; he leads Dallas at 23.0 PPG with 30.5% usage in the two regular-season games.
    • The total opened 230.5 and has fallen only 1 point to 229.5; the under-229 rung remains under-adjusted to the news.
    • Expected replacements Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington are at 52.8% and 51.1% TS, versus Flagg's 71.3%; pace inputs project roughly 224, 225.
    • Kyrie Irving is doubtful rather than confirmed out; if he plays, Dallas gains shot creation and scoring efficiency.
  5. Game total under 230.5 points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Minutes CapDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed outs affect both offenses: Cooper Flagg is out for Dallas and Tobias Harris is out for San Antonio.
    • Flagg averaged 21.0 points in five regular-season games, 17.8% of Dallas's 118.2 points per game.
    • Recent regular-season averages are Dallas 114.7 and San Antonio 112.3, a blended 227.0 against the 230.5 ladder rung.
    • Kyrie Irving and Max Christie remain questionable, and the expected Dallas lineup is not confirmed.
  6. Game total under 230
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Minutes CapDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back; prior-season team-game totals averaged 228.3 (Dallas) and 226.3 (San Antonio).
    • Nine projected starters have documented prior-B2B samples; several meaningful veterans typically fall into the 20s, below yesterday's 30-plus-minute workloads.
    • Current five-game team total averages are 231.0 for Dallas and 224.2 for San Antonio; a B2B/minutes adjustment puts my projection near 225.5, about 4.5 points below 230.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups: Dallas has Kyrie Irving doubtful and Max Christie questionable; late status changes can alter minutes and pace.
  7. P.J. Washington under 24.5 points+rebounds+assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington averaged 17.4 PRA over his last five active games, 29.0% below the 24.5 line.
    • His last five active outputs were 33, 16, 15, 10 and 13; four of five stayed below 24.5.
    • San Antonio's latest two-game defensive rating average is 108.5, better than Dallas' 113.3 mark.
    • Dallas is without Kyrie Irving, Cooper Flagg, Dereck Lively II and several rotation players, increasing Washington's workload.
  8. Victor Wembanyama under 42.5 points+rebounds+assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wembanyama averaged 29.0 PRA across his last five active games, 31.8% below 42.5.
    • He cleared 40 PRA only once in that five-game sample; the line requires 43.
    • Dallas' injury-depleted roster creates blowout/late-minutes risk for Wembanyama if San Antonio controls the game.
    • Dallas posted a 113.3 defensive rating across its first two regular-season games, a soft matchup for opposing stars.
  9. San Antonio Spurs over 10.5 points
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi's stated middle-rung step is roughly 2.5, 3¢, implying the broader 10.5 rung is modestly cheap.
    • Nearby ladder moves are 4¢ from 9.5 to 10.5 and 3¢ from 11.5 to 12.5, isolating the 10.5/11.5 compression.
    • Both quotes are tight; the 10.5 rung has 454 contracts traded and 11.5 has 6,527, with a monotone ladder.
    • The estimated edge is only about 0.5, 1¢, so normal quote noise can erase it.
  10. Dallas Mavericks spread +14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Steam CoolerUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • opener +11.5 to current +14.5 is a 3-point move; my rotation-adjusted Kyrie swing is about 1.5.
    • Kyrie Irving moved Questionable to Doubtful at 2:45 PM PDT; the market is pricing near-certain absence before starters.
    • Dallas' last-two margin is -1.0 versus San Antonio's -8.0, not evidence for an added three-point gap.
    • Kyrie sitting alongside Flagg, Lively, Martin and Aldama could overwhelm the replacement rotation.
  11. Game total under 232.5 points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PACE/efficiency PROJECTION: Dallas dictates toward its slower 102.8 pace; San Antonio is 106.0, but both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Blended pace 104.4 with matchup efficiency implies approximately 227 points before the live-state adjustment; 232.5 is the same-rung market threshold.
    • Live score is 59- at 1:03 of Q1; using 59 plus baseline remaining scoring still projects roughly 229-230.
    • The 59 points through almost one quarter imply an extreme early scoring pace; sustained shot-making can invalidate the under.
  12. Victor Wembanyama under 27.5 points
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wembanyama stayed below 27.5 in each of his last five played games: 25, 12, 14, 19 and 13 points.
    • Dallas is without Dereck Lively II, Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving, but the projected blowout risk can reduce Wembanyama's fourth-quarter minutes.
    • The Spurs are 0-2 with 107.0 points per game; Wembanyama's recent five-game scoring average is 16.6.
    • The early-season sample is only five played games, and his latest outing reached 31.98 minutes.
  13. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +30300

    Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas is on a second-night back-to-back and 3-in-4; San Antonio is on a back-to-back only.
    • New Orleans played Oct. 21 and Oct. 23; Denver last played Oct. 22, creating the cleaner rest edge.
    • Both spread numbers held from opening: Spurs -12.5 and Nuggets -11.5; the board has not advanced against the schedule reads.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups leave late status risk despite no unresolved key status on either favored side.
  14. Over 229.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current ratings/pace plus home adjustment produce a 229.5-point projection; both teams show 3.5 days average recent rest.
    • Pinnacle is 230, over -103, within 0.5 point of ProphetX's 229.5.
    • Expected, not confirmed, starting order: Max Christie and Jett Howard remain questionable, while Kyrie Irving is doubtful.
  15. Dallas Mavericks spread +15.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current regular-season net ratings favor Dallas by 6.6 points per 100 possessions: -0.9 vs. San Antonio's -7.45.
    • Dallas has a 112.4 current offensive rating against San Antonio's 108.5 defense; the matchup profile does not support a 15.5-point baseline.
    • Conservative stress test trims cover probability to about 56.5%, preserving roughly a 5.4-point edge.
    • Dallas has an expected, not confirmed, lineup; Kyrie Irving is doubtful and Max Christie/Jett Howard are questionable.

Questions

Who won Spurs vs. Mavericks?

The Spurs won 122–106 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.

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