Get app
FinalSoldier Field
Eagles2-0
7–27Final
Bears1-1
Score by period
Team1234T
PHI07007
CHI7310727

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago Bears exact margin 14-20 5¢

Why Exact Change likes it: 143 of 2,806 historical games finished exactly 14 points apart (5.1%); 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 and 14 combined for 44.3%, Tier 1.

Exact ChangeUp 93% return this season · 93 picksLongshots
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 12-22 on this game · +25% return

  1. Philadelphia Eagles spread −3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model cover probability 51.5% versus devigged Pinnacle 47.8%; gap +3.7 points.
    • Chicago QB Caleb Williams is out; Case Keenum is reported to start, a personnel downgrade the market has largely priced but not fully.
    • Chicago's two-game offense is stronger in EPA/play, success rate, and explosive rate; those efficiency signals directly oppose this side.
    Long Way Home
    • the PIT game model makes Philadelphia a 4.01-point road favorite; -3.5 is 0.51 points short.
    • Pinnacle posts Philadelphia -3.5 at +104; ProphetX improves that same-line price to +108.
    • Most likely loss: Chicago wins outright or holds within three at home; the model cushion is only 0.51 points.
  2. DeVonta Smith over 70.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSecond Wind, Target Quality Yards
    Why 2 models like it
    Second Wind
    • 13 targets and 117 yards in Week 2, up from six targets and 53 yards in Week 1.
    • Dallas Goedert is officially Out with a knee injury, removing 7 combined recent targets from Philadelphia's tight-end tree.
    • Smith had a hamstring listing earlier, though the latest official report shows full participation and no game-status designation.
    Target Quality Yards
    • NGS REG 2026, 2 games: intended air yards were 13.89 and 15.10 (14.49 average); separation was 2.56 and 2.73 (2.64 average), stable at a downfield role.
    • PFF REGPO 2026, 2 games: deep-plus-medium targets are 11 of 18 (61.1%), up from 44.3% in his 2025 same-team baseline; the PFF season surface lacks an aDOT column, so I use its depth mix rather than invent one.
    • Only two 2026 games; this is PARTIAL coverage, despite the 2025 same-team baseline having 18 games in the same role.
  3. Dontayvion Wicks over 41.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMister Price, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Mister Price
    • DraftKings posts 41.5 yards at -113; Wicks is priced for Philadelphia and carries no injury designation.
    • Through two games: 59 routes, 98.3% route rate, 82% offensive snap share, and WR2 room rank.
    • The current role and efficiency sample is only two games; 14.7 yards per target is highly regression-prone.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 147 receiving yards on 10 targets through two games: 73.5 per game versus a 41.5 line.
    • Wicks is active, carries an 82% snap share, and is confirmed in Philadelphia's starting WR duo.
    • Two-game sample and only 10 targets make the 73.5-yard average fragile.
  4. Chicago Bears to win2 models agree
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsFade Stephen A. Smith, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade Stephen A. Smith
    • Latest indexed First Take clip (posted about 5 hours ago) says Smith “can't see Bears survive against Eagles without Caleb.”
    • Chicago is the direct opposite outcome: Bears win the game, not merely cover.
    • The source page was not machine-readable; the take is verified through the current search result/title rather than a transcript.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels: Bears 3 vs Eagles 3; thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth gives the required two-measure alignment.
    • Directional coherence check: backing Chicago Bears, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote is +174 / 36.50¢.
    • Venue self-reference is the entire signal; no independent order-flow dataset confirms that queued depth predicts the result.
  5. Philadelphia Eagles −3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Spread Detective, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Eagles capped components: pass -0.06, rush -0.63, defensive pass +1.38, defensive rush -0.93.
    • Bears capped components: pass -0.65, rush +1.88, defensive pass -1.18, defensive rush -0.98.
    • The efficiency baseline blends 2025 regular-season plays with only two 2026 games through 2026-09-20; current-season sample is small.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Model estimate: Philadelphia covers 58.0%; -105 break-even is 51.2%, a +6.8-point edge.
    • Caleb Williams is officially out; Case Keenum is listed Active on the live participant feed and ESPN reports he is expected to start.
    • The feature matrix is computed through Sept. 20, before Williams' injury; the Keenum downgrade is the key model assumption.
  6. Game total under 42.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels: Under 3 vs Over 3; thin-at-quote plus substantially deeper total depth clears the two-measure test, with meaningful raw stake on both sides.
    • Directional coherence check: backing Under 42.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote is -104 / 50.98¢.
    • Venue self-reference is the only reference; the depth imbalance is not an independently validated totals model.
    Long Way Home
    • Same-line Pinnacle shows under 42.5 at -104, materially shorter than ProphetX's under offer.
    • Live read: Chicago leads 7-0 with 0:26 left in Q1; under 42.5 requires 36 more points to lose.
    • Most likely loss: the opening touchdown starts a sustained shootout and 36-plus more points arrive.
Show all 28 picks
  1. Chicago Bears exact margin 14-20Long shot
    +1900%Won

    Taken at 5¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 143 of 2,806 historical games finished exactly 14 points apart (5.1%); 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 and 14 combined for 44.3%, Tier 1.
    • The 14-point key number concentrates probability inside this bucket; generic smoothing across neighboring margins is the specific underpricing mechanism.
    • The bucket opposes the sharp spread direction; the smooth baseline's positive/negative split of the 14-point mass may be wrong.
  2. Philadelphia Eagles second-half first score
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the three fs2h YES prices sum to 0.99, close to the exhaustive 1.00 identity.
    • Philadelphia opening drives scored on 8 of 19 possessions (42.1%); Chicago scored on 6 of 19 (31.6%).
    • The second-half possession order is a by-rule restart, making fs2h distinct from full-game first score; the drive-rate edge remains with Philadelphia.
    • Opening-kickoff winner and second-half recipient were not published before the wake; possession uncertainty widens the estimate.
  3. Chicago Bears–Philadelphia Eagles 2Q total under 13.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PIT points/drive is 2.67 for CHI and 1.67 for PHI, 4.34 combined.
    • Pace matrix is slow at 33.04 seconds/play CHI and 29.76 PHI season-to-date, limiting typical quarter possessions.
    • Estimated quarter mean is roughly 10.9 points from about 2.5 drives per team; 13.5 supplies a meaningful tail cushion.
    • Only three 2026 games feed the points-per-drive estimate; one explosive or short-field sequence can break the projection.
  4. DeVonta Smith first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +950 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(first TD) 12.5%; fair odds +700 versus DraftKings +950.
    • Smith has 19 targets, 13 catches and 170 yards through two games.
    • Dallas Goedert is ruled out, reallocating Philadelphia receiving and red-zone opportunity.
    • First-touchdown markets are highly volatile; Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts retain major goal-line paths.
  5. Chicago Bears first-half winnerFavorite
    +45%Won

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chicago averages 2.67 points per drive versus Philadelphia's 1.67 through three games; offensive EPA is +0.10 versus +0.05.
    • Chicago's 30.67 seconds per play and Philadelphia's 31.52 imply continued first-half drive opportunity.
    • Variance is additive across drives, so half-margin standard deviation scales with the square root of drives, not a linear halving of full-game variance.
    • The warehouse has no first-half-specific margin histogram; late field goals and two-point decisions make full-game key-number mass non-transferable.
  6. Game second-half total over 20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game Polymarket US total is 42.5 near 50/50; the two 20.5 half lines sum to only 41.
    • The 1H over 20.5 costs 52¢ while the 2H over 20.5 costs 49¢; the late-scoring bump points toward the cheaper 2H over.
    • Fresh inputs show 31.52/30.67 seconds per play and 2.50/2.26 points per drive for PHI/CHI.
    • 2026 efficiency inputs cover just two games per team and can be noisy.
  7. D'Andre Swift over 15.5 rushing attempts
    +102%Won

    Taken at +102 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 57.3% to 80.6% snap share; the usage card labels Swift a workhorse.
    • Swift logged 18 and 16 carries in Weeks 1-2, a 17.0 average against 15.5.
    • Caleb Williams is out; a backup-quarterback plan supports a steadier ground workload.
    • Only two current-season regular-season games are charted, short of a full three-game sample.
  8. Philadelphia Eagles spread +10.5Favorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

    Long OddsNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Venue moneyline 0.47/0.53 devigs to Philadelphia 47.3%, a 12.7-point internal gap versus the ladder.
    • The same owned rung prices Philadelphia +10.5 YES at 0.73; this is the deep-dog contract targeted by the incoherence.
    • No live Pinnacle confirmation was returned; external sharp opinion is unknown rather than supportive.
  9. Saquon Barkley under 74.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PHI run-block grade 57.5 versus CHI run-defense grade 57.2; the rushing matchup is not favorable.
    • Barkley’s workload fell from 15 carries/83 yards to 4 carries/9 yards; his role is committee_lead at 42% snaps.
    • PHI’s current line is not fully stable: Landon Dickerson is on IR and Fred Johnson is out; aggregate grades are partly unverified.
  10. Philadelphia Eagles team total over 20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Eagles average 2.50 points per drive; Bears defense allows -0.02 EPA/play.
    • Eagles offense posts +0.05 EPA/play with a 31.52-second pace, supporting a fitted scoring center near 24 points.
    • Game total 42.5 and Bears +3.5 imply roughly 23/19.5, suggesting the board is spread-split rather than independently modeled.
    • Only two regular-season games inform the inputs; features were computed through September 20, creating sample and freshness risk.
  11. Chicago Bears by 1 to 6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-five EPA rows favor Chicago: +0.15 EPA/play on offense and 0.14 better defensive EPA/play than Philadelphia.
    • Last-five success rate is Chicago 45.6% versus Philadelphia 39.2%, a +6.4-point gap; finishing drives also favors Chicago 2.15 to 1.78 points/drive.
    • EPA matchup projects Chicago by approximately 2.0 points versus the Eagles -3.5 market spread, a 5.5-point divergence.
    • The last-five sample includes three preseason games and only two regular-season games.
  12. Dontayvion Wicks over 3.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +134 on FanDuel

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-script CDF: 57% over 3.5 versus FanDuel +134 implied 42.7% (14.3-point edge).
    • Wicks has converted 7 of 10 targets into catches across two games while running 59 routes.
    • His 98.3% route rate keeps the target opportunity on the field rather than relying on a gadget role.
    • Two games is a thin usage sample and requires shrinkage toward the depth-chart prior.
  13. Dontayvion Wicks over 40.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-script CDF: 64% over 40.5 versus DraftKings -112 implied 52.8% (11.2-point edge).
    • Wicks has 59 routes, 10 targets, 7 catches and 147 yards through two games.
    • 98.3% route rate and 2.49 YPRR support a high-usage, downfield role.
    • Only a two-game route sample, below the brief's high-conviction threshold.
  14. Chicago Bears +3.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • First Take clip indexed Sep. 23: “Jalen Hurts Will Own Chicago!” and Stephen A. backed the Eagles to win big.
    • The emphatic, blowout-specific call makes Bears +3.5 the clean opposite without requiring Chicago to win outright.
    • Polymarket US quotes the Bears +3.5 side at 52.5¢, with a live open contract and exact game listing.
    • The full YouTube transcript was inaccessible; the indexed title confirms the take but not every detail of his argument.
  15. Case Keenum passing touchdowns 2+
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION, NO costs 43¢ against an estimated 47, 50% no-more-pass-TDs chance.
    • Live box: Case Keenum is 8/10 for 63 yards and one passing TD with 2:08 left in Q1.
    • Chicago leads 7, 0 after a 1/1 red-zone conversion; a lead supports shifting touchdown usage toward the run.
    • One more passing TD cashes; roughly three quarters remain and Keenum has been efficient.
  16. D'Andre Swift touchdown 1+
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 64.2% snap share and a workhorse label make Swift Chicago's clear RB1.
    • Swift has 34 carries through two games; the role supports goal-line access despite a shared backfield.
    • Chicago has converted 4 of 7 red-zone trips; Philadelphia has allowed opponents 5 of 7.
    • Caleb Williams is listed Out; Tyson Bagent is full in the latest official report, but game-day quarterback confirmation is absent.
  17. Chicago Bears spread +7.5Favorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Bears +7.5 at 67.21c (-205) versus Bears +7 at 65.75c (-192): only a 1.46-point premium for converting that push outcome into a win.
    • The adjacent +7 quote may reflect matchup-specific information that league-wide key-number frequency cannot capture.
  18. Chicago Bears spread +3.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: Bears 3 vs Eagles 3; the thin quote and deeper ladder agree, with raw stakes well above the minimum-size concern.
    • Directional coherence check: backing Bears +3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote is -110 / 52.38¢.
    • Venue self-reference is the primary and only reference; no independent statistical edge is being claimed.
  19. Philadelphia Eagles to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −190 on FanDuel

    Brewing NFL MlDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jalen Hurts carries an 81.8 PFF passing grade; Case Keenum's latest grade is 45.6.
    • Philadelphia's 79.0 team grade exceeds Chicago's 67.0; pass grades are 81.8 versus 57.3.
    • Caleb Williams is out; ESPN reports Keenum likely starts, with Tyson Bagent cleared as backup.
    • Keenum is reported likely, not officially confirmed; the Keenum-Bagent split is the main model uncertainty.
  20. DeVonta Smith receiving yards over 71.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 94.5% then 86.7% snap share and 34 then 21 routes in Philadelphia's first two games; prior full-role sample was 85.2%.
    • Chicago allowed opposing WRs 289 yards on 32 targets over the last month (144.5 yards per game).
    • Smith has 170 yards on 19 targets across two games, including 117 yards and 13 targets in Week 2.
    • A new committee receiver, Smith practice absence, or any role change invalidates this read.
  21. Jalen Hurts over 18.7 fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 66% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi scoring rules: 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing TD, -2 per interception, 0.1 per rush yard, 6 per rush TD.
    • Hurts scored 24.72 and 16.16 under those rules in Weeks 1-2; two-game average is 20.44.
    • He has 62 pass attempts and 12 carries through two games, with 100% offensive snap share in both.
    • The 20.44 average is only a two-game sample and includes five passing TDs plus two interceptions.
  22. Total Points under 42
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 42 wins at 0-41, pushes at exactly 42, and loses at 43+.
    • Under 42.5 at +100 treats 42 as a win; Under 42 at +104 treats it as a push.
    • The adjacent 42.5 quote is ProphetX self-reference, not an independent sharp reference.

Questions

Who won Eagles vs. Bears?

The Bears won 27-7 on Monday, Sep 28, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.