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Updated

FinalSoFi Stadium
Bills3-1
37-34Final/OT
Rams2-2
Score by period
Team1234OTT
BUF67615337
LAR07720034

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 68.5 8¢

Why Chain Movers likes it: PROJECTION, Tier 2: model mean 50.5 and SD 15.5 imply 12.3% over 68.5.

Chain MoversUp 74% return this season · 47 picksLongshots
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How the picks did

Models went 15-14 on this game · +45% return

  1. Buffalo Bills first-half winner2 models agree
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSplit Decision, Locker Room
    Why 2 models like it
    Split Decision
    • Rest gap: 0 days; Buffalo and Los Angeles each have 8 days.
    • to-date: BUF offense +0.14 versus LAR defense −0.14; LAR offense −0.04 versus BUF defense +0.05 allowed.
    • No rest advantage; the brief's strongest first-half lever is absent.
    Locker Room
    • Buffalo current-season offense is +0.14 EPA/play versus Los Angeles Rams at −0.04.
    • Current-season points per drive are 3.10 for Buffalo versus 1.78 for Los Angeles across four games each.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; EPA and points-per-drive estimates are noisy and opponent adjustment is limited.
  2. Buffalo Bills spread +3.52 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model, Drift
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    • Model fair line is Rams −2.0, creating a 1.5-point cushion at +3.5.
    • PIT features show Buffalo ahead in success rate .5221 to .4985 and explosive rate .1522 to .1322.
    • Buffalo loses Ed Oliver and Josh Palmer; DJ Moore remains questionable, with late inactive risk before kickoff.
    Drift
    • Bills current-season offense: +0.16 EPA/play versus Rams +0.01; success .514 versus .487; explosives .140 versus .113.
    • Both quarterbacks are identified for this game by the official Rams preview: Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen; rest is equal at 8 days.
    • Most likely loss: Rams' −0.12 defensive EPA/play versus Buffalo's −0.04 creates enough pressure to win by four or more.
  3. Buffalo Bills to win2 models agree
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Independent power rating is Bills 42%: EPA/play +0.14 vs Rams −0.04, success 52.2% vs 49.8%, explosives 15.2% vs 13.2%.
    • Pace is Bills 30.63 seconds/play versus Rams 29.48; rest is equal at eight days, with Allen and Stafford confirmed starters.
    • Most likely loss: Rams' −0.14 defensive EPA/play and home field suppress Buffalo's offensive efficiency enough to win outright.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Buffalo’s last-five offense EPA/play is +0.14 versus Los Angeles at −0.02.
    • Last-five net EPA/play favors Buffalo: +0.12 versus Los Angeles at +0.08.
    • Rams’ 2026 PFF defense grade is 79.1 versus Buffalo’s 56.5, a substantial matchup warning.
  4. Keon Coleman over 3.5 receptions2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +126 on DraftKings

    2 modelsSnap Share, Second Wind
    Why 2 models like it
    Snap Share
    • Weeks 2-4 snap share/routes: 74.3%/30, 48.5%/18, 78%/32; recent role is confirmed despite one dip.
    • Observed WR1: 63.3% season snap share and 101 routes; the live odds participant feed lists Coleman Active.
    • No prior 2026 game isolates Moore/Palmer absorption; redistribution is league-average and caps this to Tier 3.
    Second Wind
    • Coleman caught 6 of 7 targets in Week 4 while playing 78% of snaps and running 32 routes.
    • Coleman is Active with full practice participation; the roster feed was fresh at today’s lookup.
    • The Rams’ defense is strong overall at −0.14 defensive EPA/play to date; there is no broad matchup tailwind.
  5. Game total over 68.5Long shot
    +1150%Won

    Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 77% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION, Tier 2: model mean 50.5 and SD 15.5 imply 12.3% over 68.5.
    • Pinnacle anchors the sharp central total at 49; no Pinnacle tail quote is posted.
    • Tier 2 has no Pinnacle quote at 68.5; interpolation and the non-sharp tail cross-check add model error.
  6. Keon Coleman over 40.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Target Quality YardsUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF REGPO depth mix, 4 games: weighted depth proxy 12.5 yards; 4 deep, 3 medium, 8 short, 1 behind-LOS target.
    • NGS REG, Weeks 2 and 4: intended air yards rose 7.81 to 12.13; separation held 3.45 to 3.33 yards.
    • vs-CB history was queried; current Rams assignment is unpublished, with primary coverage reference Trent McDuffie at 90.4.
    • Only two current-season NGS rows; PFF supplies depth buckets rather than a published aggregate aDOT, so coverage is partial.
Show all 25 picks
  1. Game total under 54.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 53.0 combined average points across both teams' four 2026 games.
    • Rams average 1.82 points per drive in the recent window, below Buffalo's 2.93.
    • Recent EPA profiles are mixed but do not show market-confirmed steam against the under.
    • Buffalo's +0.14 offensive EPA per play creates a high-end scoring path.
  2. Buffalo Bills +3.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bills average +0.17 offensive EPA per play over the latest ten-game window.
    • Buffalo is 3-1 with a plus-20 point differential; Los Angeles is 2-2 with plus-2.
    • The spread is flat at 3.5 with no visible steam or RLM against Buffalo; FanDuel offers −115.
    • Rams own the stronger PFF profile: 81.5 overall and 79.1 defense versus Buffalo’s 72.3 and 56.5.
  3. Puka Nacua under 7.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Puka has 14 receptions on 21 targets through two 2026 games: 7.0 catches per game versus a 7.5 line.
    • The 7.5-reception under is −122 at DraftKings, while the live board confirms Nacua is an active participant.
    • No visible market steam or RLM was found opposing the under.
    • Nacua's 10.5 targets per game can overwhelm the line if his catch rate holds.
  4. Over total 55.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 18% last 30 days
  5. Buffalo Bills first-half spread NO over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest gap is 0 days: Buffalo and Los Angeles each have 8 days; no fatigue edge is being invented.
    • to-date splits: BUF offense +0.14/play versus LAR defense −0.14, while LAR offense is −0.04 versus BUF defense +0.05 allowed.
    • PPD favors Buffalo 3.10 to 1.78, but the defensive split and 3-0 early lead point more toward a narrow Buffalo half than a four-point margin.
    • The current 3-0 score is only 1:45 into Q1; Buffalo can extend with one touchdown and lose this NO quickly.
  6. First-half over 26.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest gap: 0 days; Buffalo and Los Angeles each have 8 days, so no short-week distortion.
    • to-date matchup: BUF offense +0.14 versus LAR defense −0.14; LAR offense −0.04 versus BUF defense allowed +0.05.
    • LAR defense EPA −0.14 and BUF defense allowed +0.05 can suppress scoring despite Buffalo's 3.10 PPD.
  7. Buffalo Bills by 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live main spread is Los Angeles Rams −3.5 (+103), anchoring a close home-favorite margin distribution.
    • The 7-14 bucket contains three key numbers, 7, 10 and 14, creating concentrated scoring mass that generic tail smoothing can underprice.
    • The sharp anchor favors Los Angeles; Buffalo must win by 7-14, not merely cover or stay close.
  8. Los Angeles Rams spread −3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    NFL Luck RegressionUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Luck Scores: Bills −0.23, Rams −0.88; Buffalo is 0.65 luckier, clearing the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary Luck: Bills −0.06, Rams −0.50; Buffalo is 0.45 luckier, clearing the 0.20 trigger.
    • Fumble luck favors Buffalo: +0.09 versus Rams −1.07; raw recovery residuals were −0.5 versus −2.5.
    • Both teams have only four 2026 games; the luck estimates are early-season and high variance.
  9. Buffalo Bills spread +2.5High conviction
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bills' four-game form leads on offense EPA (+0.14 vs Rams −0.04), success rate (.522 vs .498), and explosive rate (.152 vs .132).
    • Most likely loss is a Rams win by 3 or more, with the 3-point key number especially relevant to this +2.5 rung.
  10. Total points under 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game samples: Buffalo's +0.14 offensive EPA/play faces Los Angeles' −0.14 defensive EPA/play; Rams offense is −0.04 versus Buffalo defense at +0.05.
    • The matchup does not produce two efficient attacks: Rams' opposing efficiency cushion is only +0.01, while their defense grades 79.1 overall and 85.0 in coverage.
    • Recent combined scoring is 53.0 points per game across the four-game samples, below the 55.5 posted total.
    • Buffalo has allowed 107 points in four games and carries +0.05 defensive EPA allowed; Matthew Stafford can turn the weak link into points.
  11. Buffalo Bills spread +4.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bills offense is +0.14 EPA/play against Rams defense at −0.14; the matchup gap is +0.29 for Buffalo.
    • Rams offense is −0.04 EPA/play against Bills defense at +0.05; the opposing matchup gap is only +0.01 for Los Angeles.
    • Both teams have four 2026 games covered; rest is equal at eight days and the venue is non-neutral.
    • Rams' 2026 defense grades 79.1 overall with 85.0 coverage, which can suppress Buffalo's efficiency.
  12. Los Angeles Rams under 28.5 team total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 3% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 28.5-point Rams team total at 47c; matchup fit is roughly 24.5, 25.5 points.
    • Rams home points per drive is 1.62 across two games; their home offensive EPA is −0.07.
    • Rams offense EPA-to-date is −0.04/play against a Bills defense allowing +0.05/play: not a favorable offensive mismatch.
    • Bills defense has allowed positive EPA, giving Los Angeles a path to 29+ points.
  13. Game second-half total over 26.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Own second-half fit: 28.5 points, above the board's 26.5 threshold.
    • Full-game total 55.5 plus the 1H ladder centered at 26.5 implies roughly 29 points for 2H before the usual late scoring bump.
    • Pace is brisk (BUF 30.63, LAR 29.48 seconds/play); EPA inputs support a live scoring environment, with BUF offense +0.14 and LAR defense −0.14.
    • Second-half outcomes are conditioned on halftime score and strategy; the season-to-date fit cannot fully model that state dependence.
  14. Buffalo Bills spread 3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberDown 1% last 30 days
  15. Blake Corum over 0.5 receptions
    +65%Won

    Taken at −154 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 3% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 2-4 snap share/routes: 45.2%/7, 29.1%/13, 15.5%/7; the role is present across three games, not a one-week spike.
    • Observed RB2 with committee role: 27.3% season snap share, 16.2% route participation, 30 routes; Corum is active on the participant feed.
    • Rams average 70.75 plays and a 60.7% pass rate; project 70 plays, 42 dropbacks, 1.5 targets, and 1.0 reception for Corum.
    • Most likely loss: Kyren Williams' workhorse role absorbs the passing-down work and Corum finishes without a catch.
  16. Josh Allen fantasy points: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorDown 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model blend is 20.5 PPR points versus the 22-point threshold.
    • Rams rank 3rd in opponent EPA/play and allow 14.5 QB fantasy points per game.
    • Allen’s 8.5 weekly rushing touches add upside, but the Rams’ pass defense and 58.2 Bills OL pass-block grade restrain efficiency.
    • Allen’s rushing-TD projection is 0.82, so one short-yardage score can break the under.
  17. James Cook III over 1 touchdown
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 68.4% snap share and RB1 workhorse label; Ty Johnson 27.2%, Ray Davis 9.4%.
    • Buffalo has 16 red-zone trips in four games, converting 11 (69%); goal-line role is derived from usage proxies.
    • Rams opponents converted 7 of 12 red-zone trips (58%), supporting Buffalo touchdown chances.
    • 50c entry leaves a modest estimated six-point probability margin before Polymarket's fee.
  18. Kyren Williams over 3.0 receptions
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 11% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5.25 receptions per game across four 2026 games versus a 3.0 line (+75%).
    • Cleared this line in 3 of 4 games, with 10 and 6 receptions in his last two.
    • Buffalo's pregame defensive EPA is +0.05, while the Rams' pass-rate-over-expectation is +0.16.
    • He recorded only 2 receptions in Week 2; the distribution remains volatile.
  19. Los Angeles Rams first touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 50% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 71 Buffalo opening drives produced 27 touchdowns (38%); 72 Rams opening drives produced 17 (23.6%).
    • 2026 opening-drive TDs are Buffalo 1/4 and Los Angeles 0/4; the current sample is small but points the same direction.
    • Opening kickoff/coin-toss outcome is unpublished; the model band for LAR NO is 55.1%-72.2%.

Questions

Who won Bills vs. Rams?

The Bills won 37-34 on Monday, Oct 12, 2026.

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