Get app

Seahawks vs. BroncosFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalEmpower Field at Mile High
Seahawks3–2
14–17Final
Broncos3–2
Score by period
Team12345T
SEA30011014
DEN01400317

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under total 35.5 33¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Denver offense: -0.144 EPA/play and 1.674 points/drive; Seattle defense: -0.180 EPA/play allowed.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 100 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 32-30 on this game · −3% return

  1. Seattle Seahawks to win10 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    10 modelsDrift, high-confidence main markets +8
    Why 10 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating 60.5%; Seattle has +0.1974 offensive EPA/play, +0.1517 defensive EPA/play, +8.93 points success rate, and +3.38 points explosive-rate edges over five games.
    • Seattle leads current form by 8.6 average margin and 0.513 points per drive; Bo Nix and Sam Darnold are confirmed starters, while Denver loses Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga.
    • Most likely loss: Denver's home field and Bo Nix win the turnover or field-position battle despite Seattle's efficiency advantage.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Seattle's recent offense: +0.0536 EPA/play and 48.6% success versus Denver's -0.1438 and 39.7%.
    • Seattle's defense allows -0.1801 EPA/play versus Denver's -0.0283; Seattle also leads recent explosive rate 12.0% to 8.6%.
    • Denver has home-field and altitude advantages on a short four-day turnaround.
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • Seattle leads pre-kickoff offense EPA/play 0.0536 to Denver -0.1438 and defense EPA allowed -0.1801 to -0.0283.
    • PFF team grade favors Seattle 78.0 to 67.1; its passing grade leads Denver 82.6 to 52.6.
    • Denver has home field and both teams have four rest days; the venue is outdoor at altitude.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures agree: Seattle is thin at the quote but materially deeper behind it.
    • Directional coherence check: backing Seattle Seahawks, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference only; there is no independent order-flow confirmation and no proven statistical edge.
  2. Seattle Seahawks spread −2.54 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 54.0%; Seattle current-season offense -0.0456 EPA/play versus Denver -0.0847.
    • Seattle defense -0.1360 EPA/play allowed versus Denver -0.0578; success rates are 44.1% versus 41.4%.
    • Most likely loss: Denver's defense controls Seattle's efficiency and the Broncos win or lose by fewer than three.
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • Seattle leads recent offense EPA/play 0.0536 to Denver's -0.1438 and success rate .4863 to .3970.
    • Seattle's defense allows -0.1801 EPA/play versus Denver's -0.0283.
    • Seattle committed seven turnovers in its two losses, including defensive touchdowns, per the official preview.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Five-game read: Seattle offense +0.0536 EPA/play versus Denver defense -0.0283 allowed, a +0.0819 matchup gap.
    • Denver offense -0.1438 versus Seattle defense -0.1801 allowed gives Denver only +0.0363; net efficiency matchup favors Seattle by +0.0456 EPA/play.
    • Most likely loss: Denver's 78.6 pass-rush grade overwhelms Seattle's 63.4 pass-block grade, producing a close Broncos win or cover.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Seattle's EPA strategy score is 0.729 versus Denver's -0.386, a 1.115-point edge.
    • Seattle's primary EPA score is 0.427 versus Denver's -0.184, a 0.611 edge; both trigger thresholds clear.
    • Only five 2026 regular-season games are in the sample; split counts range from 135 to 172 plays per side.
  3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 93.5 receiving yards4 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    4 modelsTarget Quality Yards, Shoulders of Giants +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Target Quality Yards
    • NGS REG, 5 current-season games: 11.7 average intended air yards over the last four qualifying rows; latest rose to 12.58, with 53.8% current air-yards share.
    • PFF REGPO, 5 games: depth-derived aDOT 10.7, with 49.0% deep-plus-medium targets; NGS and PFF together put the quality threshold around 11.
    • The formal game-specific shadow assignment is unresolved; Denver may rotate McMillian, Moss, and safety help rather than give JSN a single matchup.
    Shoulders of Giants
    • OL gate verified: Seattle has no offensive lineman on the final injury list; Denver's first-team OL is intact, with backup Kage Casey inactive.
    • Pass matchup: Seattle OL 66.6 grade, 96.9 PBE and five sacks allowed versus Denver's 70.9 pass-rush grade and 12.1% win rate.
    • Denver's 70.9 pass-rush grade remains a real pressure threat despite the low sack total.
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • 116.6 season receiving yards per game versus a 93.5 line (+24.7%).
    • Cleared 93.5 in 4 of 5 games: 122, 155, 128, 76, 102 yards.
    • Sam Darnold is active and QB1 but carried a limited-practice designation Wednesday.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 116.6 receiving yards per game through five, 24.7% above the 93.5 line.
    • Exceeded 93.5 in four of five games: 122, 155, 128, and 102 yards.
    • One recent miss at 76 yards shows the line can lose if target quality or efficiency drops.
  4. Seattle Seahawks spread −3.52 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSunday Ledger, Key Number Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
    • Pinnacle main spread Seattle -2.5, devigged Seattle cover probability 52.6%; p_anchor at -3.5 is 43.6%.
    • Seattle leads current-season offensive EPA/play 0.054 to Denver -0.144; Seattle defensive EPA allowed is -0.180 versus Denver -0.028.
    • Seattle can win by exactly 3, the key-number loss that makes this rung fragile.
    Key Number Pairs
    • Current EPA-to-date favors Seattle: offense +0.0536 vs Denver -0.1438, defense allowed -0.1801 vs -0.0283.
    • 2026 PFF team grade is Seattle 78.0 vs Denver 67.1; passing grade is 82.6 vs 52.6.
    • Denver is home, and the warehouse FPI projection gives Seattle only 52.569% win probability and a +0.712 projected margin.
  5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions2 models agree
    +74%Won

    Taken at −136 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • Joint simulation: 62% CDF for 7+ receptions versus 57.6% DraftKings breakeven.
    • 50 targets and 37 catches through five games; 35.2% team target share.
    • Denver can force shorter distribution while Seattle plays from ahead.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 37 receptions on 50 targets through five games: 7.4 catches and 10.0 targets per game.
    • 82.6% snap share and primary Seattle WR role; active with full participation confirmed.
    • Denver can bracket Smith-Njigba or force Seattle toward its backs and secondary receivers.
  6. Seattle Seahawks −2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsNFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    • Regressed fair line is approximately Seattle -3.5, about one point better than the ticket.
    • Seattle's last-five net EPA/play is +0.2337 versus Denver's -0.1155; the 0.3492 gap is supported by opponent-adjusted efficiency inputs.
    • Five-game samples are noisy; Denver and Seattle are both 3-2, so regression could erase much of the efficiency gap.
    Number Earned
    • PIT feature: Seattle +0.054 offensive EPA/play versus Denver -0.144; success rate 48.6% versus 39.7%.
    • Seattle defense allows -0.180 EPA/play versus Denver's -0.028; explosive-play rates are 12.0% versus 8.6%.
    • Seattle is depleted at running back: Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are out, increasing Emanuel Wilson workload uncertainty.
Show all 43 picks
  1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 92.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsEarly Down, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    Why 2 models like it
    Early Down
    • 128, 76 and 102 receiving yards over the last three; 102-yard trailing average exceeds the 92.5 line.
    • Denver has allowed 552 receiving yards to opposing wide receivers over four recent games, 138 per game.
    • yard game in the last three shows the margin is thin and variance remains substantial.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • 4/5 L5 (80%), 8/10 L10 (80%), and 4/5 2026-season games cleared 92.5.
    • Recent-game average is 116.6 yards, 26.0% above the 92.5 line.
    • Denver can bracket Smith-Njigba or pressure Darnold, reducing target quality despite his role.
  2. Seattle Seahawks spread over 7.5Long shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full anchor gives p_anchor 29.9% at Seattle over 7.5; p_model 34.7%; EV_anchor +3.1%, EV_model +19.7% at 29¢.
    • Seattle must win by eight; a one-score Denver game loses despite Seattle covering the main number.
  3. Denver Broncos exact margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's main spread is Denver +2.5 (-103), anchoring Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite.
    • 2,838-game NFL histogram recomputed this wake: margins 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, and 14 comprise 44.4%, Tier 1.
    • Denver 7-14 contains three key numbers (7, 10, 14); reweighting the smooth -2.5, 14.12-SD baseline lifts this bucket above generic smoothing.
    • Seattle is the sharp favorite; Denver's underdog 7-14 tail is still materially less likely than the corresponding favorite-side outcomes.
  4. Under total 35.5Long shot
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver offense: -0.144 EPA/play and 1.674 points/drive; Seattle defense: -0.180 EPA/play allowed.
    • FULL coverage: Bo Nix and Sam Darnold are depth-chart QB1s; both teams have 5 current-season games; key-number mass computed from 2,838 games.
    • Seattle's 32.15-second pace and both teams' positive PROE can create more possessions and scoring.
  5. Game first-half total over 20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Denver 4 days, Seattle 4; no rest boost, but both scripted plans are intact.
    • combined points per drive is 3.8602, with Seattle pace 32.15 versus Denver 30.01.
    • the stronger Seattle offense and positive first-half winner lean support an early scoring over.
    • No rest mismatch supports the 4% front-load adjustment; that assumption is model uncertainty.
  6. Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos game total under 40.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seahawks defense: -0.180 EPA/play allowed over five games.
    • Broncos offense: -0.144 EPA/play with a 0.397 success rate.
    • Seattle allowed 105 points in five; Denver scored 97.
    • Seattle offense is +0.054 EPA/play and averaged 26.8 points.
  7. Seattle Seahawks first-quarter winnerFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live score is Seattle 3-0 with 2:32 left; Seattle currently has 2nd-and-5 at its own 36.
    • First-quarter opening-script signal is the most projectable quarter; Seattle already converted its opening drive into a 55-yard field goal.
    • Season-to-date Seattle has 1.76 points per drive versus Denver 1.67, plus stronger offense EPA (+0.054 vs -0.144) and defense EPA allowed (-0.180 vs -0.028).
    • Denver needs only a touchdown to overturn the quarter, and 2:32 remains for a short-field or explosive-play swing.
  8. Denver Broncos +1.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the liquid full-game board makes Seattle +2.5, while the first-half Seattle -1.5 contract is priced near 50¢; Denver +1.5 is 52¢.
    • Pace inputs are 30.01 seconds/play for Denver and 32.15 for Seattle; roughly 10, 11 combined first-half drives leave a wide margin distribution.
    • Points per drive are 1.67 Denver versus 2.19 Seattle; after home-field adjustment the fitted half margin is close to pick'em, making +1.5 materially safer than the market's near-even quote.
    • Seattle's five-game points-per-drive and EPA sample is thin, and its efficiency advantage can overwhelm Denver's home-field anchor.
  9. Seattle Seahawks–Denver Broncos 1H total under 22.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current points per drive are Denver 1.674 and Seattle 2.186; approximately five drives each projects about 19.3 first-half points.
    • Pace inputs are 30.01 and 32.15 seconds per play, supporting ordinary opportunity but not a 23-point baseline.
    • Square-root scaling: half-game variance contracts by roughly √(1/2), so variance is not halved linearly; the 22.5 tail remains high.
    • No first-half-specific histogram exists; the full-game key-number distribution is directional only and cannot be transferred unchanged.
  10. Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 91.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 583 receiving yards in five games (116.6 per game); current line is below his season average.
    • Last three games: 128, 76, 102 yards on 25 combined targets; he cleared 91.5 twice.
    • Denver safety Talanoa Hufanga is expected to miss 2, 3 weeks after consecutive non-participations, weakening the middle-field matchup.
    • Denver's final cornerback alignment, especially Pat Surtain II's status, remains unresolved.
  11. Jaylen Waddle under 45.5 receiving yards
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Waddle produced 10, 35, and 19 receiving yards in his last three regular-season games.
    • 45.5 yards is more than double his 21.3-yard three-game average; DraftKings under is -111.
    • Seattle's 77.4 PFF coverage grade and Denver's 19-point implied total support a difficult efficiency environment.
    • Denver is a 2.5-point home underdog, so trailing script could increase Waddle's late targets.
  12. Total points under 40.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle allows -0.1801 EPA/play and Denver produces -0.1438; current pace is 32.15 and 30.01 seconds per play.
    • Seattle averages 2.1864 points per drive and a .120 explosive rate; efficient explosive offense can clear 40.5.
  13. Courtland Sutton under 3.5 receptions
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on DraftKings

    Mister PriceDown 7% profit over 40 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 2026: 11 catches on 25 targets, 2.2 receptions per game; 2025 REGPO baseline was 4.26 catches.
    • Recent catches: 2, 3, 3, 1, 2; he stayed under 3.5 in all five games.
    • Denver averages -0.1438 offensive EPA/play and 1.674 points per drive over five; Seattle allows -0.1801 defensive EPA/play.
    • 2025 production supports 4.26 catches per game, so current 2.2 rate can regress.
  14. Total Points under 42.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game sample: Denver offense is -0.1438 EPA/play against Seattle defense at -0.1801 allowed, the game's clearest scoring drag.
    • Seattle's offense is +0.0536 EPA/play, but Denver's defense is also -0.0283 allowed; the mismatch points to Seattle control more than a shootout.
    • Pace is modest at 30.01 seconds/play for Denver and 32.15 for Seattle; both teams have four rest days and the venue is non-neutral.
    • Seattle can score efficiently against Denver's 65.6 defense, while short fields or defensive touchdowns can break a low-total script.
  15. Evan Engram over 20.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58.4% average snap share across his last three games; opportunity gate clears 55%.
    • 11 targets over three games produce 3.67 targets per game.
    • Projection is 27% above the 20.5-yard market line; DraftKings offers -114.
    • The three-game sample is only 11 targets and can be noisy.
  16. Seattle Seahawks over 20.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Seattle +0.0536 offensive EPA/play versus Denver -0.0283 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Seattle averages 2.186 points per drive, 12.4 drives per game, and 61.1% red-zone conversion.
    • Denver has Surtain II out and Riley Moss questionable, supporting a Seattle passing matchup.
    • Only five games of current-season efficiency create substantial estimation error.
  17. Bo Nix under 14.2 fantasy points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean 13.3 PPR points; estimated under probability 61% versus Kalshi NO at 51c.
    • Scoring gate verified: Sleeper full-PPR formula matches ESPN's 4-point pass TD, 1/25 pass yards, -2 interception, 6-point rushing TD rules.
    • Seattle allowed -0.180 EPA/play over its last five, second-best in the supplied matchup board; coverage grade 77.4.
    • A second passing touchdown or a rushing touchdown can clear 14.2 despite modest yardage.
  18. Seattle Seahawks winning margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SEA last-five offense EPA/play is +0.0536 versus Denver -0.1438; defense EPA allowed is -0.1801 versus -0.0283.
    • adjusted projection is Seattle by about 5.0 versus the market's Denver -2.5, a 7.5-point divergence.
    • After the Polymarket US fee estimate, effective cost is about 22.2 cents, leaving roughly 17% relative edge.
    • The EPA sample is only five regular-season games and matchup translation is noisy.
  19. Seattle Seahawks under 40.5 total points
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 40.5 total at FanDuel (-105); NWS forecast has 15, 22 mph wind and gusts to 34 mph.
    • Denver season offense: -0.1438 EPA/play and 1.6738 points/drive; Seattle defense: -0.1801 EPA/play allowed.
    • Pace inputs are 30.01 and 32.15 seconds/play, indicating a slower combined environment.
    • Seattle owns +0.0536 offensive EPA/play and a 12.0% explosive-play rate; a few chunk gains can beat the under.
  20. Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos under 36.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At 2:32 Q1, the game was 3-0 with 18 combined offensive plays and no explosive plays recorded.
    • Live EPA was -0.130 for Seattle and -1.204 for Denver; both offenses were below a 50% success rate.
    • Denver's latest drive reached 3rd-and-8 at the Seattle 31 after four plays, while Seattle had already run 14 plays at a 30.4-second pace.
    • Only the opening quarter is observed; one early turnover or explosive touchdown can materially change the scoring path.
  21. Denver Broncos to winFavorite
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi

    Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • @RealSkipBayless feed item at 6:40 PM PDT: “Sam Darnold looks lost tonight in Denver.”
    • The same post calls Darnold “a fraudulent QB,” a strong negative read on Seattle’s game outcome.
    • Skip did not explicitly write “Denver to win”; the outright side is an implied conversion of his QB criticism.
  22. Bo Nix under 34.5 passing attempts
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 59% versus 51.5% break-even at DraftKings -106: +7.5 percentage points.
    • Nix has averaged 32.4 attempts through five games; he stayed under 34.5 in four of five.
    • Denver's offense is -0.1438 EPA/play with a 39.7% success rate; Seattle's defense is -0.1801 EPA/play allowed.
    • Seattle's running-back injuries could improve Denver field position or create a pass-heavy game script.
  23. Emanuel Wilson first Seattle Seahawks touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Wilson is Seattle's RB1 with a 41.6% snap share and an early_down_hammer role.
    • The 10/15 depth chart has Wilson first among Seattle RBs; no higher-ranked back is ahead of him.
    • Seattle has 18 red-zone attempts and 11 conversions this season; Denver has allowed 11 scores on 18 red-zone attempts (61.1%).
    • Wilson is not a workhorse: George Holani's 36.5% snap share leaves meaningful committee and goal-line competition.
  24. Emanuel Wilson 1+ touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58.9% run-snap rate and 41.6% snap share; Wilson is Seattle's RB1 and an early-down hammer.
    • Seattle has averaged 3.6 red-zone attempts per game, with 18 trips through five games.
    • Denver opponents have converted 8 of 15 red-zone trips (53.3%); matchup is not prohibitive.
    • George Holani still owns a 36.5% snap share and can siphon goal-line work.
  25. Emanuel Wilson under 18.5 rushing attempts
    +84%Won

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wilson has 73 carries through five games, 14.6 per game, below the 18.5-attempt threshold.
    • He is a 41.6% snap-share early-down hammer, while George Holani holds a 36.5% share: a real committee.
    • Wilson is active and expected in his primary role; Seattle also has a separate fullback role in the rotation.
    • Zach Charbonnet is out, which could push additional early-down work to Wilson.
  26. Seattle Seahawks first-half spread over 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest gap: Denver 4 days, Seattle 4; no fatigue edge, so this is an efficiency/script projection.
    • Seattle leads Denver by 0.1974 EPA/play on offense and has a 0.1518 defensive EPA/play advantage.
    • Pinnacle full-game Seattle -2.5 at -107; DERIVED REFERENCE: 0.52 first-half scaling implies a +1.3 Seattle margin, nudged to 49% by the efficiency gap.
    • Equal four-day rest removes the brief's strongest first-half lever.
  27. Seattle first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest: Denver 4 days, Seattle 4; no mismatch, so the signal is efficiency rather than fatigue.
    • Seattle's offensive EPA is +0.1974/play better and defensive EPA allowed is 0.1518 lower.
    • full-game Seattle -2.5; a 0.52 first-half weight implies roughly Seattle -1.3.
    • No rest edge: equal four-day preparation removes the brief's strongest lever.
  28. Seattle Seahawks spread −2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle leads Denver by 0.1974 offensive EPA/play, 8.63 percentage points in success rate, and 3.38 points in explosive rate through five games.
    • Seattle also owns the defensive EPA edge: -0.1801 allowed/play versus Denver's -0.0283; equal four-day rest removes a schedule disadvantage.
    • Denver's home field and a lower-possession game can turn the efficiency gap into a one-score result; exactly two is a push.
  29. Alex Singleton over 8.5 tackles + assists
    +79%Won

    Taken at −126 on DraftKings

    NFL Defensive Tackles & Assists Quant ModelDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of 5 2026 games cleared 8.5; Singleton averages 10.6 combined tackles/assists (15, 9, 8, 14, 7).
    • Full-time deployment: 60-86 PFF defensive snaps in all five games; snap-share proxy held at 101%-109% of opponent plays, about 3.1 percentage-point SD.
    • Seattle has two linebackers ruled out, while Singleton is confirmed active and no Denver same-level starter is Questionable.
    • The 9.5 projection only clears the required gap by 0.0 after rounding; this is a threshold-level edge.
  30. Jaylen Waddle under 4.5 receptions
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Route snaps declined from 34 to 36 to 27 across Weeks 3-5; snap share fell from 73.1% to 64.5%.
    • Waddle has 18 receptions through five games, a 3.6-per-game baseline below 4.5.
    • Seattle has allowed -0.2188 defensive EPA per play in 2026, offering no verified matchup weakness to attack.
    • Denver's secondary is unsettled: Pat Surtain II was a nonparticipant and Riley Moss remained limited on the latest report.
  31. Bo Nix under 200.5 passing yards
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Nix stayed under in 3 of 5 2026 games: 131, 186 and 123 yards; his median is 186.
    • Denver's season-to-date offense EPA/play is -0.1438 with a 39.7% success rate.
    • Seattle's defense is allowing -0.1801 EPA/play in the recent five-game feature set, while 19, 24 mph forecast wind adds pressure to the under.
    • Denver could trail and increase pass attempts; 42 attempts produced 214 yards in one recent game.
  32. Sam Darnold under 220.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • In his three full 2026 starts, Darnold has gone under this number twice (168 and 195 yards); his median is 195.
    • Forecast sustained wind of 19, 24 mph at the KDEN regional proxy adds a passing-efficiency headwind.
    • Denver's recent defensive EPA allowed is only -0.0283, not an elite pass-defense signal.
  33. Game total under 40.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • NWS forecast updated 12:46am MDT: NNW sustained wind 19, 24 mph in the afternoon, with gusts to 37 mph.
    • The >15 mph wind gate is met at the regional KDEN proxy; Denver is an outdoor venue.
    • Seattle's last-five offense averages 26.8 points and Denver's 19.4, but wind creates a plausible downward adjustment to the 40.5 market.
    • Recent offensive scoring averages imply 46.2 combined points, so 40.5 is already a low number.
  34. Game total under 40
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX first-half total is 20; 2x equals 40, isolating the team-total ladder as the two-point disagreement.
    • Five-game inputs show pace_to_date 32.15 for Seattle and 30.01 for Denver; both have four rest days and the game is non-neutral.
    • The first-half check agrees exactly at 40, so only one of the two internal checks supplies the edge.
  35. Game first-half total under 21.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects 18.8 first-half points, 2.7 below the 21.5 threshold.
    • Full-game 40.5 implies a naive 20.25 first half; drive-adjusted estimate is 1.45 lower.
    • Seattle averaged 10.2 first-half points and Denver 4.6 across five 2026 games.
    • Both teams carry positive first-half pass-rate-over-expectation signals, increasing scoring variance.
  36. Jaylen Waddle under 11.2 fantasy points
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sleeper projects 11.34 PPR points and ESPN 10.00; my blended center is approximately 10.8.
    • Waddle has exceeded 11.2 in only 2 of 5 games, with 18 receptions for 204 yards in that span.
    • Denver's implied team total is only 19.0 against Seattle's -0.180 defensive EPA per play.
    • The 138-yard Week 2 outlier shows Waddle's right-tail remains substantial.
  37. AJ Barner under 23.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • p_raw 72.0%; p_market 50.0% from FanDuel -113/-113 devigged; shrink_factor 0.25; p_final 55.5%; final edge +5.5 percentage points.
    • Barner stayed under 23.5 yards in four of five current-season games; the results were 13, 8, 69, 12, and 20 yards.
    • Direct role data shows 82.4% route rate, 131 routes, 20 targets, and 12 receptions across five games.
    • The 69-yard Week 3 outlier demonstrates real explosive-play variance above this low line.

Questions

Who won Seahawks vs. Broncos?

The Broncos won 17–14 on Thursday, Oct 15, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.