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Saints vs. GiantsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMetLife Stadium
Saints1–4
34–27Final
Giants3–1–1
Score by period
Team1234T
NO01017734
NYG7301727

Top model pick, graded

Won

New Orleans Saints spread −1.5 +105

Why Always wins likes it: 78% of spread tickets reportedly backed the Giants, clearing the >65% public-concentration gate.

Always winsDown 5% this season · 20 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 18-36 on this game · −30% return

  1. New York Giants to win9 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    9 modelsPickEm, Drift +7
    Why 9 models like it
    PickEm
    • Own win probability 55.8% versus 49.3% de-vigged market probability: +6.5 points.
    • Last-six net EPA/play differential favors New York by approximately 0.163 EPA/play: +0.001 Giants versus -0.162 Saints.
    • Giants offensive tackles Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor are questionable, creating pass-protection uncertainty.
    Drift
    • Model 53.0%: Giants home offense EPA/play -0.0265 versus Saints -0.0765; defense allowed .0365 versus .1059.
    • Movement is flat-to-slightly against: Giants opened 50.5%, current 50.0%, a 0.5-point move away.
    • Most likely loss: Saints quarterback Tyler Shough and the New Orleans offense overcome the Giants' modest defensive rating edge.
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • Recent defense EPA allowed: New York -0.1138 versus New Orleans +0.0557; offense also favors New York .0173 to -.0872.
    • New York is 3-1-1 with a +0.6 recent scoring margin; New Orleans is 1-4 with a -6.6 margin.
    • Andrew Thomas, Jermaine Eluemunor and Abdul Carter are questionable for New York; several Giants defensive backs are out.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • five-game PIT read favors New York; Giants offense -0.0265 plus Saints defensive allowance +0.1059 implies +0.0794, versus Saints -0.0400 against Giants.
    • PFF card supports the defensive side: Giants defense 67.0 versus Saints 56.9; both teams have seven rest days and the game is non-neutral.
    • Most likely loss: Saints overcome the efficiency gap with explosive plays from a healthier-than-expected offense and win outright.
  2. Cam Skattebo over 11.5 rushing attempts3 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    3 modelsJay Money PrizePicks Matrix, +EV Volume Handicapper +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 16.2 rushing attempts per game over his last five, 40.9% above the 11.5 line.
    • Skattebo cleared 11.5 attempts in all five prior games, ranging from 12 to 20.
    • Najee Harris is listed RB2, creating some workload competition.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 16.2 carries per game (81 in 5); he cleared 11.5 in all five outings: 18, 12, 20, 18, 13.
    • Workhorse role: 64.6% snap share, RB1, and 87 run snaps in 2026.
    • Five-game sample is small; the 12-carry low leaves little margin.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5 hit rate 100% (5/5); L10 90% (9/10); 2026 season 100% (5/5).
    • L5 average is 16.2 attempts, a 40.9% projection edge over 11.5.
    • H2H is only one game: 15 Skattebo carries against New Orleans in 2025; sample is not meaningful.
  3. New Orleans Saints spread −1.52 models agreeHigh conviction
    +105%Won

    Taken at +105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsAlways wins, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    Always wins
    • 78% of spread tickets reportedly backed the Giants, clearing the >65% public-concentration gate.
    • The spread reversed from Giants -1.5 to Giants +1.5 while public money stayed on New York: clear sharp resistance.
    • Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara were both officially questionable at the 8:47am PT injury update.
    Resting Money
    • Backing New Orleans Saints -1.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. No independent sharp reference is used.
    • The hypothesis is unproven and venue-self-referenced; one stale, strategic, or mis-entered order can mimic patient demand.
  4. Isaiah Likely over 5.5 receptions2 models agree
    +106%Won

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSnap Share, NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    Why 2 models like it
    Snap Share
    • Role trend: W3 84.4%/25 routes, W4 65.7%/31, W5 79.8%/56.
    • TE1, position-group rank 1; 70.0% season snap share and 165 routes; odds feed lists Likely Active.
    • Only five games support the role; Week 5's 56-route spike may be noisy rather than a lasting change.
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • Five direct current-season games: 48 targets, 33 receptions; 9.6 targets/game with a 68.8% catch rate.
    • Reception results are volatile: Likely's five-game totals range from 2 to 11.
  5. New York Giants exact margin 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home margins of 1-6 occurred in 20.218% of 2016-26 NFL finals; this bucket contains key numbers 3, 4, and 6.
    • The sharp spread is Giants +1 at Pinnacle (-109), so the selected home-side tail is directionally coherent.
    • The key-number histogram is 44.418%, within the brief's Tier 1 stability band.
    • The 20.218% home-bucket rate is unconditional; this matchup-specific estimate is uncertain.
  6. New Orleans Saints spread +1.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number mass computed from 2,839 completed 2016-2026 regular/postseason games; p_anchor at Saints +1.5 is 54.0%.
    • Current Saints success rate is 45.5% versus Giants 44.3%; a live +1.5 cushion is the strongest qualifying near-number rung.
    • Giants are 3-1-1 over their last five while New Orleans is 1-4; current EPA form also leans New York.
Show all 42 picks
  1. New York Giants spread 7.5Long shot
    +300%Won

    Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full tier: both QB1s confirmed, five current-season games each, and the 2,839-game key-number histogram was computed this wake.
    • Most likely loss: New York wins by seven or fewer, or New Orleans wins; this is a thin-tail contract.
  2. Under total 45.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle total 46.0: Over -105 / Under -107; devigged Under probability is 50.2%.
    • Derived rung: p_anchor 50.2%, p_model 52.1%, gap 1.9p; EV_anchor +2.5%, EV_model +6.3%.
    • Giants pace is slow, but Saints pace is faster and their +17.2% PROE can add possessions.
  3. New York Giants −0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV ModelUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0.017 offensive EPA/play and -0.114 defensive EPA allowed: Giants materially outperform Saints’ -0.087 and +0.056.
    • Giants are 3-1-1 with a +0.6 recent margin; New Orleans is 1-4 with a -6.6 margin.
    • Giants’ 67.0 defensive grade and 63.6 coverage grade exceed New Orleans’ 56.9 and 50.7.
    • Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor are game-day questionable; both tackles missing would erase the matchup edge.
  4. Juwan Johnson anytime touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +260 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model anytime-TD probability 31% versus 27.8% break-even at +260; fair price about +223.
    • Johnson has 32 targets, 25 receptions, and three touchdowns across five games.
    • The Saints' 2.0986 recent points-per-drive figure leaves room for a red-zone receiving score.
    • New Orleans' four-way backfield committee makes touchdown allocation less stable than the price implies.
  5. Isaiah Likely first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +950 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model first-TD probability 10.5% versus 9.5% break-even at +950; fair price about +852.
    • Likely leads New York at 48 targets and four touchdowns through five games.
    • 70% offensive snap share and 165 routes provide the strongest Giants tight-end access.
    • First-touchdown outcomes are highly dispersed across rushers, receivers, and defensive scores.
  6. New Orleans Saints–New York Giants 2H total over 20.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1H 22.5 plus 2H 20.5 equals 43, versus the liquid full-game 45.5.
    • To-date pace is 31.724 seconds/play for New York and 28.066 for New Orleans; home/away PPD inputs are 2.530 and 2.385.
    • Square-root scaling: half-game variance grows with sqrt(drives), not linear possession halving, widening the over-tail around 20.5.
    • Second-half scoring is conditioned on halftime score and game script, which the to-date averages cannot fully model.
  7. New York Giants over 23.5 team total
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Conversion LedgerNew model
    Why it likes it
    • REG third down: Giants 31/70 (44.3%) versus Saints defense 29/60 allowed (48.3%); adjusted rate 46.3%.
    • REG red zone: Giants 9/14 TDs (64.3%) versus Saints defense 14/22 allowed (63.6%); adjusted rate 64.0%.
    • Possession context supports scoring: Saints averaged 28.1 seconds/play with +17.1% PROE; Giants PROE was +6.1%.
    • Andrew Thomas is questionable and Jermaine Eluemunor is out; a weakened Giants line can end drives early.
  8. Tyler Shough first-quarter passing yards under 47.5
    +86%Won

    Taken at −116 on DraftKings

    NFL 1st Quarter Player PropsUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 67.0%; devigged market 50.5%; +16.5 points at DraftKings -116.
    • Shough's Q1 passing yards were 15, 11, 31, 100, and 9; four of five stayed under 47.5.
    • Saints averaged 6.6 Q1 pass plays; Shough averaged 6.4 Q1 attempts across five starts.
    • Saints pass rate is 61.1% with +17.2% PROE, creating extra-attempt upside.
  9. Malik Nabers over 72.5 receiving yards
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snap share rose 78.1% to 88.8%; routes rose 21 to 61 and targets rose 6 to 20.
    • Saints allow +0.1059 defensive EPA/play to date and carry a 50.7 coverage grade.
    • The 20-target game is a spike, while his prior three-week yardage range was 26 to 121.
  10. New York Giants spread −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  11. First-half total under 22.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp total is 46 and unchanged from open; 47, 49% maps to a 21.6, 22.5 first-half baseline.
    • Recent first-half scoring averages 19.6 for New York and 20.0 for New Orleans across five regular-season games each.
    • Opening-drive scores: Giants 2 of 5; Saints 0 of 5, supporting a downward script adjustment.
    • Five-game first-half samples are noisy; one explosive play or short-field turnover can clear 23 points.
  12. Devaughn Vele over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +114 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Role trend: W3 87.8%/45 routes, W4 89.2%/50, W5 95.6%/27.
    • WR1, position-group rank 1; 91.5% season snap share and 223 routes; odds feed lists Vele Active.
    • Most likely loss: Vele's Week 5 route reduction persists and he finishes with four or fewer catches.
  13. New York Giants over 3.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Early NumberNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Projected Giants margin is 3.6 points: 26.0 projected NYG points versus 22.4 Saints points from current scoring splits.
    • 2021-25 NFL margins show 3 as the largest exact margin bucket: 199 of 1,358 games, supporting key-number reweighting around 3.
    • The 3.6-point projection uses early-season raw scoring splits and lacks full opponent adjustment.
  14. Game total over 46
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game pre-kick sample: Saints and Giants defenses allow +0.1059 and +0.0365 EPA/play; both are positive allowed rates.
    • Last-five game totals average 53.8 in Saints games and 43.0 in Giants games; the combined ten-game sample leans above 46.
    • Pinnacle also posts 46, with over -105; ProphetX offers the same rung at +101. Seven rest days and both QB1s verified.
    • Most likely loss: one or both offenses stall and the game finishes 45 or fewer; exactly 46 is a push.
  15. Darnell Mooney over 20.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected 25.6 yards from 4.0 targets/game × 6.4 season yards/target; line is 20.5.
    • Snap share is rising 43.8% → 55.2% → 65.2% over the last three games.
    • DraftKings posts 20.5 at -114, a live price against a projection 24.9% above the line.
    • Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely command substantial target share in this offense.
  16. New Orleans Saints over 17.5 team points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Saints offense is -0.0765 EPA/play, but the Giants defense is +0.0365 EPA/play allowed; the matchup offsets some offensive weakness.
    • Saints average 2.0986 points per drive with 28.066 seconds per play; a 46.5 total and Giants -3.5 imply roughly 21.5 Saints points.
    • Pinnacle's live team-total reference is Saints 22.5, with over -117; that independently supports the 17.5 rung.
    • New Orleans has 0 points with roughly one quarter played; 18+ still requires sustained scoring after the slow start.
  17. New York Giants over 23.5 team points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Giants -0.0265 offensive EPA/play meets Saints +0.1059 defensive EPA allowed; the specific matchup favors NYG scoring.
    • Giants have scored 21.8 points per game through five 2026 games; New Orleans has allowed 30.2 per game.
    • Giants average 1.99 points per drive versus New Orleans at 1.86; the pace is slower, but the defensive mismatch supports 24-plus.
    • Giants red-zone conversion is only 13-for-26 (50%), creating field-goal drives below the threshold.
  18. New York Giants spread −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fresh QB gate: the 10/18 12:01 AM PDT depth chart lists Tyler Shough and Jameis Winston as QB1; latest injury data has no Out/Doubtful status for either.
    • Matchup projection: Giants defense allowed 0.0365 EPA/play versus Saints 0.1059, while New York's recent scoring margin is +0.6/game versus New Orleans -6.6.
    • PFF 2026 card favors New York's defense 67.0 to 56.9 and pass block 70.9 to 56.0.
    • The ticket loses if New York loses or wins by 1-2; exactly 3 is a key-number landing zone.
  19. New York Giants win by 7 to 14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended net EPA projects Giants +11.9 points over Saints: +7.8 recent, +16.0 season.
    • Market spread is Saints -1.5, creating a 13.4-point EPA/model divergence.
    • Key-number adjustment concentrates probability at 7 and 10 inside this 7, 14 band.
    • Giants lead success rate by only 1.2 percentage points against New Orleans over the last five.
  20. New York Giants +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 59% independent cover estimate; fair price -144 versus FanDuel -122.
    • Giants allow 0.0365 EPA/play this season; Saints allow 0.1059.
    • Giants are 3-1-1 with +0.6 recent margin; Saints are 1-4 with -6.6.
    • Saints have the stronger 2026 offense grade, 72.7 to 63.8.
  21. Game total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7-0 Giants at 2:00 Q1; only 7 points across 21 live offensive plays.
    • New Orleans is at -0.618 EPA/play and 16.7% success; the Saints produced no explosive play in the live sample.
    • New York is +0.184 EPA/play with a 53.3% success rate, but its touchdown is the game's only score and the Saints just punted after a 3-play, 1-yard drive.
    • The sample is only the opening quarter; live EPA and 21 plays can be noisy.
  22. Isaiah Likely first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1000 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My 10.5% estimate implies fair odds near +852; FanDuel offers +1000.
    • Likely has 4 touchdowns on 48 targets, including two red-zone touchdowns last week.
    • He ranks TE1 with a 70.0% snap share and 165 routes through five games.
    • Exact season-long goal-line target share is not fully published, despite multiple verified inside-20 targets.
  23. Isaiah Likely over 51.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 56.8 receiving yards per game in 2026, exactly matching his current five-game sample.
    • Likely cleared 51.5 yards in 3 of 5 games, including 66 and 94 in his last two.
    • Saints pass defense allowed +0.0557 EPA/play recently; coverage grade is only 50.7.
    • Only 3 of 5 current games cleared this number; the misses were 33 and 13 yards.
  24. New Orleans Saints first team touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Saints converted 13 of 16 red-zone trips (81.3%) through five games.
    • Giants' defense has allowed opponents 9 conversions on 13 red-zone trips (69.2%), a favorable scoring-chance matchup.
    • Saints' offense has the stronger red-zone conversion profile; usage leaders show a stable Shough-led offense and multiple high-snap skill options.
    • Coin-toss result and opening-drive script are unknown; first-touchdown markets are highly path-dependent.
  25. Cam Skattebo touchdowns over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cam Skattebo has a 64.6% snap share, RB1 chart rank, and workhorse label; Devin Singletary is out.
    • Giants have converted 9 of 14 red-zone trips (64.3%); Saints have allowed 14 of 22 (63.6%).
    • Giants' -0.0265 offensive EPA/play is better than New Orleans' -0.0765, supporting modest positive script equity.
    • Goal-line carries are not directly charted; the role judgment is derived from snap share, depth chart, and team red-zone proxies.
  26. Game total under 44
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing under 44, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. No independent sharp reference is used.
    • The hypothesis is unproven and venue-self-referenced; a single stale or strategic order can create the apparent depth asymmetry.
  27. Tyler Shough over 35.0 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 41.0 pass attempts per game over his last five starts, 17.1% above the 35.0 line.
    • Saints averaged a 64.6% pass rate across their first five games.
    • Shough is the live depth-chart QB1 and the odds feed lists him active for this game.
    • Saints could lean run-first if Alvin Kamara is effective or play from ahead.
  28. New York Giants first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • rest is even, 7 days each; no short-week edge to override the efficiency gap.
    • Giants lead EPA-to-date by 0.119 points/play in the combined offense-defense comparison: +0.050 offense and +0.069 defense.
    • this is consistent with the existing under-20.5 first-half position, but uses the unheld winner market.
    • Rest is exactly 7-7, so the brief's strongest lever supplies no advantage.
  29. First-half total under 20.5 points
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Rest is 7 days for New Orleans and 7 for New York; there is no rest mismatch.
    • EPA gap favors New York: offense -0.0265 vs. New Orleans -0.0765 (+0.0500), defense allowed +0.0365 vs. +0.1059 (0.0694 better); success rate is .4434 vs. .4551.
    • Pinnacle directly quotes the first-half total at 21.5, with Under +102; that higher rung supports the lower-scoring direction but is not treated as a same-rung price.
    • No rest edge exists, and the 19.43 projection depends on a 4.5-drives-per-team assumption plus a 4% scripted lift.
  30. New York Giants spread +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Giants' current offense is -0.0265 EPA/play versus New Orleans at -0.0765; the 0.0500 gap supports the home side at a forgiving number.
    • Giants' defensive EPA/play allowed is 0.0365 versus Saints 0.1059; lower is better, a 0.0694-play matchup advantage.
    • Personnel gate clears: current official injury data lists Tyler Shough as active/no game designation, while current reporting identifies the Giants' Winston-led quarterback setup; the side is +1 rather than moneyline.
    • Likeliest loss path: New Orleans wins by two or more; exactly a one-point Saints win pushes rather than wins.
  31. Cam Skattebo first-quarter rushing yards under 10.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    NFL 1st Quarter Player PropsUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 57.0%; devigged market 48.6%; +8.4 points at DraftKings -107.
    • Skattebo averaged 4.4 Q1 carries and 9.4 Q1 rushing yards; he stayed under 10.5 in three of five games.
    • Giants averaged 7.4 Q1 rush plays, while Skattebo owns a stable 64.6% snap share and workhorse role.
    • Saints' 51.2 run-defense grade is vulnerable, so one early crease can produce 11-plus yards.
  32. New York Giants +1.5 first half
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Novig

    Half MeasureUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game Pinnacle spread is Saints -1; the half-line rule implies roughly Saints -0.5 / Giants +0.5.
    • Giants scored 10.67 first-half points and allowed 10.00 over their last six completed regular-season games.
    • The 1.0-point line gap is exactly the minimum threshold; first-half variance can overwhelm a small projection edge.
  33. Cam Skattebo over 58.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17.0 carries and 59.0 rushing yards per game over the last three.
    • Snap share stayed high at 76.6%, 64.2%, and 62.9%; role remains a workhorse.
    • New Orleans allowed 126.0 running-back rushing yards and 25.0 carries per game over the last four.
    • The trailing rushing average is only 0.5 yards above the line; variance dominates.
  34. Chris Olave over 77.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on BetMGM

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate 80% (4/5); L10 70% (7/10); 2026 season 80% (4/5).
    • L5 average is 107.4 receiving yards, a 38.6% projection edge over 77.5.
    • Olave has 54 targets, 39 receptions, 537 yards, 2.62 YPRR and a 93.6% route rate.
    • Olave is officially questionable with an illness as of the 6:05 AM injury report; final inactives are not posted.
  35. Cam Skattebo over 42.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate 80% (4/5); L10 80% (8/10); 2026 season 80% (4/5).
    • L5 average is 58.8 rushing yards, a 38.4% projection edge over 42.5.
    • Three-game active hit streak; Skattebo has 294 yards on 81 carries this season.
    • H2H is one favorable game: 59 rushing yards against New Orleans in 2025, below the meaningful-sample threshold.
  36. New York Giants spread −2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, 2026 five-game EPA/play profile favors New York by roughly 0.35 points per play versus New Orleans.
    • Giants are 3-1-1 with +0.6 average margin over their last five; Saints are 1-4 at -6.6.
    • New York has materially better recent offensive EPA and a less damaging defensive EPA profile than New Orleans.
    • Most likely loss: New Orleans wins the line of scrimmage and keeps the Giants from separating at home.

Questions

Who won Saints vs. Giants?

The Saints won 34–27 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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