Ravens vs. BrownsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHuntington Bank Field

Ravens4–1

10–13Final

Browns3–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
BAL	10	0	0	0	10
CLE	0	0	3	10	13

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game first-half total under 24.5 58¢

Why Locker Room likes it: At 7-0 with 6:02 left in Q1, the over needs 18+ additional first-half points; Cleveland is at -0.138 offensive EPA/play and 1.274 points/drive.

Locker RoomUp 1% return this season · 218 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 20-6 on this game · +47% return

Cleveland Browns +33 models agree
+98%Won
Taken at −102 on DraftKings
3 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model +1
Why 3 models like it
NFL Trench Mismatch
- Primary pass-trench edge is Cleveland +1.09 weighted score units: 71.2 OL pass-block grade versus Baltimore's 50.7.
- Baltimore's pressure-allowed rate is 38.5% versus Cleveland's 24.4%; standardized protection favors Cleveland by roughly 2.53 z units.
- Cleveland's offensive sack rate allowed is 11.3% versus Baltimore's 7.4%; the sack component slightly favors Baltimore.
NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
- Model fair margin is Ravens by 1.4, 1.6 points short of the Ravens -3 market.
- Baltimore's OL grades 50.7 in pass blocking and 22.0 at center versus Cleveland's 71.2 OL grade.
- Pinnacle stayed at -3 and moved Ravens from -110 to -114, signaling sharp resistance to the dog.
Number Earned
- Fair spread is Ravens -1; Cleveland +3 projects about 54% to cover.
- Lamar Jackson is officially out, and NFL.com confirms Tyler Huntley starts for Baltimore.
- Cleveland's offense has produced only 93 points in five games and can lose by four or more.
Cleveland Browns +3.52 models agree
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCLV Sharp ATS, ProphetX Pairs
Why 2 models like it
CLV Sharp ATS
- Lamar Jackson is officially OUT; Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson has no game-day designation.
- Model projects Ravens -0.5 after the quarterback adjustment versus the -3 consensus, a 2.5-point analytical edge.
- Baltimore's last-five net EPA/play remains +0.129 versus Cleveland's -0.117 before the QB adjustment.
ProphetX Pairs
- Lamar Jackson is officially out and Tyler Huntley is confirmed to start; my QB-adjusted lens makes Cleveland +3.5 a 56% cover.
- The current ProphetX board still offers the key 3.5 points despite the confirmed quarterback downgrade, while the captured books were mainly at Cleveland +3.
- Likeliest loss path: Baltimore's defense and rushing game overcome the Huntley downgrade, producing a win by four or more.
Cleveland Browns to win2 models agree
+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsResting Money, Brewing NFL Ml
Why 2 models like it
Resting Money
- Book levels are Cleveland 3 versus Baltimore 3; two of three measures agree. Band: RECOMMENDED.
- Only two measures agree; book-level count ties 3-3 and does not corroborate Cleveland.
Brewing NFL Ml
- Cleveland's 71.2 pass-block grade and 97.5 PBE compare with Baltimore's 50.7 and 96.6; Baltimore has allowed 57 pressures versus Cleveland's 41.
- Home field and a one-day rest edge support Cleveland after turnover-luck regression.
- Baltimore's recent defense has been much stronger: -0.1238 EPA allowed/play versus Cleveland's 0.0054.
Baltimore Ravens spread −3
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model 54.5% Ravens -3: Baltimore holds a +0.243 EPA/play offensive edge, +5.9 success points, +5.6 explosive points and +1.04 points/drive.
- Deshaun Watson has 1,010 yards, 7 TD and 2 INT in five games; Tyler Huntley is confirmed to start and is 32-of-41 for 264 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT.
- Pinnacle devig moved from 49.1% open to 52.0% current, +2.9 points toward Baltimore; ProphetX moved -106 to -107, also slightly toward Baltimore.
- Most likely loss: Huntley regresses against Cleveland's home defense while Watson converts enough drives to erase Baltimore's efficiency edge.
Game first-half total under 24.5
+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- At 7-0 with 6:02 left in Q1, the over needs 18+ additional first-half points; Cleveland is at -0.138 offensive EPA/play and 1.274 points/drive.
- Baltimore's +0.104 offensive EPA/play and 3.307 points/drive support scoring, but the blended half center remains roughly 22, 23 points.
- First-half standard deviation scales with the square root of drives, not linearly with possessions; I widen the half distribution instead of mechanically halving full-game variance.
- A Ravens short field, defensive touchdown, or quick Browns response can add two scores and erase the small cushion.
Mark Andrews receiving yards under 28.5
+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- NGS REG, 5 current-season games: 4-game intended-air-yards average 6.58; separation fell 5.57 to 3.18 to 2.47 yards over Weeks 3-5.
- PFF REGPO, 5 games: 3.3% deep, 16.7% medium and 80.0% short targets; 1.55 YPRR, 64.5 route grade and 84.4% route rate.
- NGS REG air-yards share averaged 18.4%; Andrews finished 49, 49, 24, 27 and 28 yards, with the last three below 28.5.
- Most likely loss: Cleveland loses Andrews in zone, and one seam catch plus short-area YAC carries him past 28.5.

Show all 22 picks

Game total under 40.5
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 40.5 is also 0.5 above twice ProphetX's first-half 20 total.
- Five 2026 feature rows per team clear coverage; the 62.05 combined pace and positive PROE are documented but do not erase the ladder mismatch.
- Game-day inactives are confirmed through ESPN's feed and the NFL list: Lamar Jackson is out; Deshaun Watson is not listed inactive.
- The stronger internal cushion is only 2.5 points versus team-total rungs and 0.5 versus twice the first-half rung.
Baltimore Ravens under 23.5 team points
+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projection: Baltimore's +0.1044 offensive EPA/play meets Cleveland's -0.0215 defensive EPA/play allowed; Lamar Jackson is officially OUT.
- The replacement-quarterback adjustment pulls the fitted Baltimore score below the board's 23.5 threshold; Baltimore's season pace is 32.294 seconds/play.
- Venue self-reference: the board looks spread-split, with 39.5 total and BAL -3 implying 21.25 Ravens points; active central team-total rungs preserve the three-point gap.
- Baltimore scored 30 points last week with a 2.727 points-per-drive game, so Huntley-led efficiency may be more durable than the quarterback downgrade.
Baltimore Ravens by 7 to 14Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US
NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- BAL L5 offense EPA/play +0.104 vs CLE -0.138, a +0.243 matchup differential.
- Recent scoring-margin form is BAL +5.4 per game versus CLE -3.8; EPA-adjusted projection is Ravens +5.8.
- Tyler Huntley is confirmed to start, and the market is Ravens -3.0; the model is 2.8 points higher.
- Lamar Jackson is out, so backup-quarterback variance could erase the EPA-based projection.
Zay Flowers over 5.5 receptions
+109%Won
Taken at +109 on DraftKings
NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Four direct current-season games: 31 targets, 26 receptions; 7.75 targets/game and 83.9% catch rate.
- 91.0% route rate and WR2 role remain stable despite Baltimore's receiver absences.
- Lamar Jackson is ruled out; backup-quarterback efficiency could reduce completion quality and drives.
Tyler Huntley over 163.5 passing yards
+91%Won
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 201 passing yards on 32 attempts in his only full 2026 start; he also threw 2 touchdowns.
- NFL and Ravens reports confirm Huntley starts; Lamar Jackson is ruled out, removing quarterback-role uncertainty.
- Baltimore averages +0.1044 offensive EPA/play, 0.4896 success rate, and 2.568 points per drive through five games.
- Huntley has only one full start in this season's sample; his 264 season yards include a relief appearance.
Baltimore Ravens −3.0
−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
NFL Spread DetectiveDown 53% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Strategy score: Baltimore +0.500 versus Cleveland -0.374, a +0.874 EPA edge.
- Primary EPA score: Baltimore +0.232 versus Cleveland -0.182, a +0.414 primary edge.
- Baltimore posted +1.491 offensive pass-EPA z and +1.519 offensive explosive-play z.
- Lamar Jackson is officially out; the score blends Baltimore performance across Jackson and Tyler Huntley without a separate QB adjustment.
Cleveland Browns exact margin 15+Long shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Polymarket US
Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle's live anchor is Baltimore -3; the spread centers the margin distribution near Cleveland -3.
- Using an SD 14.1 smooth margin baseline and reweighting those empirical key-number bins leaves roughly 8.4% for Cleveland 15+.
- 15+ is not itself a key-number bin; the projection relies on a broad-tail model rather than a direct empirical boost for this bucket.
Derrick Henry over 0.5 touchdowns
−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 8 total touchdowns in 5 games, including 7 rushing scores.
- 58.5% snap share and RB1 depth-chart rank; role is labeled early-down hammer.
- Baltimore has generated 19 red-zone attempts and 14 conversions through five games.
- Lamar Jackson is listed Out on the latest official weekly report, creating quarterback-related scoring uncertainty.
Zay Flowers over 58.5 receiving yards
+88%Won
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- L5: 4/5 over 58.5 yards (80%); L10: 7/10 (70%); 2026: 3/4 (75%).
- Flowers averages 101.3 yards across his four 2026 games, a 73% projection edge versus 58.5.
- Against Cleveland, he cleared 58.5 yards in 4 of 5 recent meetings, averaging 70.6 yards.
- Lamar Jackson is out; Huntley lowers quarterback certainty despite Flowers succeeding with him last week.
Cleveland Browns +7.5 spreadFavorite
+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Browns +7.5 wins when Baltimore wins by exactly 7; Browns +7 pushes there, while the half-point rung cannot push.
- ProphetX quotes full-game Browns +7 and Browns +7.5 both at -215 (68.25c), despite the +7.5 contract winning in the exact-7 region.
- NFL regular-season margins 2016-25: home margin -7 occurred 107 times, 4.058% of games, the relevant Browns +7 push region.
- The 4.058% figure is league-wide regular-season history from 2016-25, not a Ravens-Browns matchup-specific estimate.
Harold Fannin Jr. under 36.5 receiving yards
+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 31.4 receiving yards per game over five; 14.0% below the posted line.
- Under this number in 3 of 5 games, including 4 yards last week on four targets.
- Active and listed TE1; current depth chart shows slot rank 1 and 87.5% season snap share.
- Fannin exceeded this line twice in five games, including 51 and 54 yards.
First-half total under 20.5 points
+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Rest is 7 days for Baltimore and 7 for Cleveland: no freshness mismatch, so the under is not relying on a short-week angle.
- to-date is Baltimore +0.1044 offense versus Cleveland -0.1383; defenses are nearly identical (-0.0241 Baltimore, -0.0215 Cleveland), while Lamar Jackson is ruled out via espn_live.
- PROJECTION with TIMING support; Baltimore's QB1 absence makes the season PPD baseline more likely to overstate its first-half offense.
- No rest edge exists, and the 19.93 projection is only 0.57 points below the 20.5 threshold.
Cleveland Browns under 17.5 team points
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION / RECOMMENDED; SELF-REFERENCE: Browns are -0.1383 offensive EPA/play against Baltimore's -0.0241 defensive EPA/play allowed.
- Cleveland's five-game points-per-drive average is 1.53; matchup-adjusted projection is approximately 15.5, 16.5 points.
- The board looks mechanically spread-split: 43.5 game total and Ravens -9.5 imply roughly 17.0 Cleveland points, not an independent matchup anchor.
- point deficit can force Cleveland into faster, pass-heavier possessions and create late backdoor scoring.
Josh Cuevas over 32.5 receiving yards
+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Live state: Baltimore leads 10-0 with 4:37 left in Q1; Cleveland has possession at its own 35 after kickoff.
- Cuevas already has 31 yards on 2 targets and 2 receptions, including a 29-yard gain and touchdown drive involvement.
- Baltimore has produced +0.411 offensive EPA/play and a 62.5% success rate; Cleveland is at -0.876 EPA/play and 0% success.
- Cuevas is a low-baseline TE4: 19.4% season snap share and only 30 season route snaps in the usage feed.
Baltimore Ravens −3
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels tie 3-3; the thin-at-quote and deep-total measures agree, but the depth advantage is modest. Band: RECOMMENDED, low conviction.
- The depth edge is only 2.6%, so the second supporting measure may be noise rather than patient demand.
Tyler Huntley under 168.5 passing yards
+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 132 passing yards per game across his two 2026 appearances; 21.7% below the posted line.
- Huntley is confirmed for his second straight start with Lamar Jackson ruled out; he is active for this game.
- Cleveland's defense has allowed -0.0215 EPA per play, while Baltimore's pace is 32.3 seconds per play.
- Only two games form the sample; Huntley threw for 201 yards last week.

Questions

Who won Ravens vs. Browns?

The Browns won 13–10 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.