Titans vs. ColtsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLucas Oil Stadium
Titans0–5
26–20Final
Colts2–3
Score by period
Team1234T
TEN0061726
IND0130720

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tennessee Titans spread −3.5 15¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: Key-number mass computed from 2,839 regular/postseason finals; p_anchor for Titans -3.5 is 22.0% versus 15¢.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 100 picks

How the picks did

Models went 17-30 on this game · −7% return

  1. Indianapolis Colts to winFavorite4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −280 on FanDuel

    4 modelshigh-confidence main markets, PickEm +2
    Why 4 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Colts season offense: +0.0008 EPA/play versus Tennessee's -0.1681, with a 48.3% versus 43.3% success rate.
    • Indianapolis averages 2.2815 points per drive versus Tennessee's 1.1602 through five games.
    • FanDuel's -280 is only a modest price edge against my estimate; the market's devigged reference is about 72.2%.
    PickEm
    • Own win probability 78.5% versus 73.1% sharp-market baseline: +5.4 points.
    • Colts last-six net EPA/play: -0.080 versus Titans -0.187, a +0.107 differential.
    • DraftKings break-even is about 74.4%, reducing the price edge versus the de-vigged baseline.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Colts lead pregame offensive EPA/play by 0.1689 (0.0008 vs -0.1681).
    • Both starters are confirmed through live usage: Daniel Jones and Cam Ward each played 100% of team QB snaps in five games.
    • Cam Ward has the better 2026 PFF passing grade, 65.9 versus Daniel Jones at 56.2.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • 77.0% model win probability versus a 74.03¢ ProphetX price implies approximately +4.0% expected return.
    • Colts lead to-date EPA/play by 0.169: 0.0008 offense versus Tennessee's -0.1681.
    • Last-10 net efficiency separation is modest at roughly 0.012 EPA/play, below the preferred 2.5-point situational threshold; conviction is capped low.
  2. Indianapolis Colts −6.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    4 modelsShawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter, Resting Money +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Shawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter
    • At 0-0 with 2:36 left in Q1, Indianapolis drove 12 plays for 72 yards and reached the TEN 6 before the interception.
    • Recent 10-game efficiency favors Indianapolis: -0.0843 offensive EPA/play vs Tennessee -0.1082, with points per drive 1.888 vs 1.376.
    • The interception at the TEN 6 erased a likely scoring drive and creates short-field turnover variance.
    Resting Money
    • Directional check: backing Indianapolis Colts -6.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote was +102 American, or 49.5 cents for grading.
    • This is venue self-reference, not an independent sharp confirmation; book-level count tied 3-3.
    NFL baby
    • Net EPA/play gap is +0.1612 for Indianapolis; at 60 plays, roughly 9.7 points versus a 6.5-point line.
    • Colts lead recent success rate 48.3% to 43.3% and points per drive 2.28 to 1.16.
    • EPA inputs are to-date team figures, not explicitly opponent-adjusted; this is an unadjusted proxy and forces low conviction.
    Number Earned
    • Fair margin: Indianapolis -7.5; estimated cover probability 54%.
    • Last-five offensive EPA/play: Colts +0.001 versus Titans -0.168.
    • Indianapolis is also coming off a 34-22 loss, and its last-five defensive EPA allowed is vulnerable.
  3. Game total under 44.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Pigskin Pete +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Five-game sample: Tennessee offense is -0.1681 EPA/play; Indianapolis offense is near neutral at +0.0008.
    • Both teams allow positive EPA/play: Indianapolis +0.0297, Tennessee +0.0220; nevertheless the Titans’ offensive weakness is the key drag on the combined projection.
    • Most likely loss: Indianapolis scores into the high 20s or 30s against Tennessee’s defense, while the Titans contribute enough to push the total past 44.
    Pigskin Pete
    • Season points/drive: Colts 2.282, Titans 1.160; combined 3.442 is modest for a 44.5 total.
    • Last-six offense EPA/play is -0.0416 for Indianapolis and -0.1486 for Tennessee; both offenses are below average.
    • Both defenses allow positive EPA/play: Indianapolis +0.0297 and Tennessee +0.0220, leaving room for efficiency rebounds.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Indianapolis has only +0.0008 offensive EPA/play and Tennessee is -0.1681; Titans points per drive are 1.1602 versus Indianapolis at 2.2815.
    • Personnel gate, the live depth chart lists Daniel Jones and Cam Ward as QB1s; Jones has full official participation and neither current starter is Out/Doubtful.
    • Likeliest loss path: Indianapolis converts its offensive edge into several efficient drives while Tennessee contributes enough explosive plays to reach 45.
  4. Indianapolis Colts spread −6.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Colts matchup advantage is +0.1766 EPA/play: Indianapolis offense 0.0008 minus Tennessee defense 0.0220, versus Titans offense -0.1681 minus Colts defense 0.0297; five games each.
    • Indianapolis has the stronger PFF offense, 72.1-61.9, and the OL-vs-DL matchup favors Colts protection: 67.0 pass-block grade against Tennessee's 60.8 pass-rush grade.
    • Most likely loss: Indianapolis wins by 1-6 points, or Tennessee covers through late-game variance.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Colts lead Tennessee by 0.169 EPA/play on offense (0.0008 vs -0.1681) and 4.9 percentage points in success rate (48.3% vs 43.3%).
    • Personnel gate cleared: Daniel Jones has full practice participation with no adverse status in the live injury feed; current preview identifies Cam Ward for Tennessee without an unavailability caveat.
    • Indianapolis defense has slightly worse current defensive EPA allowed (0.0297) than Tennessee (0.0220), leaving a backdoor-cover path.
  5. Indianapolis Colts spread −72 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • NFL regular/postseason histogram: 242 of 2,839 games finished on exactly a 7-point margin (8.5%), making the push materially valuable.
    • Colts form leads: +0.0008 offensive EPA/play versus Tennessee -0.1681, 2.282 versus 1.160 points per drive, and PFF overall grades 69.5 versus 60.7.
    • The ticket loses if Indianapolis wins by 1-6, loses, or fails to reach the required margin; the most likely bad landing is a close Colts win.
    Long Way Home
    • Indianapolis has +0.0008 offensive EPA/play, .4826 success rate and 2.2815 points/drive to date; Tennessee is at -0.1681, .4333 and 1.1602.
    • My cash-win estimate is 51%; the 46.73¢ break-even price leaves a meaningful projection gap despite touchdown-line variance.
    • Colts defense has allowed +0.0297 EPA/play to date, while Tennessee's defense is also weak at +0.0220; neither side is a clean defensive anchor.
  6. Laquon Treadwell over 27.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season baseline is 8.26 yards per target; recent target counts of 1, 6, and 8 imply 41.3 yards per game.
    • Snap share stayed high at 78.9%, 84.8%, and 80.3%, with 35, 36, and 39 routes.
    • 41.3-yard projection is 50.2% above the 27.5-yard DraftKings line.
    • Recent targets ranged from 1 to 8, so the opportunity distribution is wider than the snap share suggests.
Show all 38 picks
  1. Tennessee Titans exact margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 6¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
  2. Tennessee Titans under 18.5 team totalHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 11.6 points per game through five; Tennessee scored 3, 18, 7, 20 and 10.
    • Titans rank at -0.1681 offensive EPA/play with a 43.3% success rate through five games.
    • Tennessee produces 1.16 points per drive; Cam Ward is listed Active in the fresh participant feed.
    • Indianapolis allows +0.0297 defensive EPA/play; one efficient Colts game can create short fields.
  3. Tennessee Titans spread −3.5Long shot
    +567%Won

    Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number mass computed from 2,839 regular/postseason finals; p_anchor for Titans -3.5 is 22.0% versus 15¢.
    • Lucas Oil Stadium is indoors with equal seven-day rest; the edge is ladder distribution, not a favorite-direction claim.
    • Most likely loss: Indianapolis wins by four or more, making the Titans -3.5 contract fail.
  4. Under 45.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  5. Tennessee Titans spread over 5.5Long shot
    +614%Won

    Taken at 14¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main at wake: Colts -6.5 (-102) / Titans +6.5 (-108); devigged Colts cover probability 49.3%.
    • Most likely loss: Indianapolis wins outright or Tennessee wins by five points or fewer; this remains a 15.8% longshot.
  6. Amani Hooker over 5.5 tackles + assists
    +65%Won

    Taken at −153 on DraftKings

    Why it likes it
    • 7.0-tackle mean across four 2026 games; all four cleared 5.5.
    • Negative-binomial estimate is 7.0 with approximately 70% probability of 6+; the 1.5-tackle gap clears the safety threshold.
    • Kevin Winston Jr. is out, and Hooker has no current Questionable/Doubtful designation; Indianapolis is indoors.
    • Indianapolis can shorten the game with Jonathan Taylor and reduce Tennessee's defensive snap count.
  7. Akeem Davis-Gaither over 7.5 tackles + assists
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Why it likes it
    • 8.8-tackle mean across five 2026 games; four of five cleared 7.5.
    • Negative-binomial estimate is 8.7 tackles with approximately 65% probability of 8+; the 1.2-tackle model gap clears the LB threshold.
    • Jaylon Carlies is out, while no Colts same-level starter carries a current Questionable/Doubtful designation.
    • The 14-tackle game is a meaningful right-tail outlier; the other four results cluster at 7-8.
  8. Under 22.5 first-half total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is approximately 20, 21 first-half points from current 5-game points-per-drive inputs: IND 2.28, TEN 1.16.
    • Titans offense is at -0.168 EPA/play with only 1.16 points per drive; their slower 27.83-second pace limits early possessions.
    • The 1H 22.5 threshold plus the 2H 23.5 threshold sums to 46 against a 44.0, 44.5 full-game board, even before the expected late-game scoring bump; 1H is the inflated leg.
    • Five-game PPD and EPA samples are noisy, and both defenses show mildly positive EPA allowed figures that could create short-field points.
  9. Indianapolis Colts spread −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  10. Over 44.5 total
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  11. First-half total under 20.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp total moved only from 45 to 44, within the 1.5-point information gate.
    • Script-adjusted first-half model is about 20.0 points, with under 20.5 probability near 53%.
    • Recent first-half totals averaged 29.4 in Colts games and 18.4 in Titans games; Tennessee's early scoring has been weak.
    • The 44-point full-game total still supports a 21-plus first half if efficiency improves.
  12. Tyjae Spears over 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +112 on DraftKings

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 2/4/5 role trend: 35.8%/34.9%/54.0% snap share with 7/19/27 routes.
    • Pass-down satellite, RB2: 44.3% season snap share, 44.5% route participation, 13.3% run-snap rate.
    • Titans averaged 55.8 plays; down splits are pass-heavy after first down. Projected 56 plays, 32 dropbacks, 3.0 receptions.
    • Tyjae's latest nine-catch game is a large outlier; his prior three recorded games produced 2, 2, and 1 receptions.
  13. Tennessee Titans under 18.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE (no sharp team-total book reference).
    • Titans offense is -0.1681 EPA/play to date; Colts defense allows +0.0297 EPA/play, a modest matchup lift but not enough to erase Tennessee's offensive drag.
    • Tennessee averages 1.12 points per drive away and has converted 6 of 13 red-zone trips (46.2%) this season.
    • A short field, defensive touchdown, overtime, or red-zone regression can push Tennessee to 19 or more.
  14. Indianapolis Colts by 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA matchup projects Indianapolis around an 11-12 point margin versus the -6.5 market spread.
    • Last-five offense EPA/play: Colts 0.0008, Titans -0.1681; the 0.1689 differential strongly favors Indianapolis.
    • Key-number adjustment concentrates the model at 7 and 10; modeled Colts 7-14 probability is 34%.
    • Colts defensive EPA allowed is slightly worse: +0.0297 versus Titans +0.0220.
  15. Cam Ward under 203.5 passing yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 896 yards in five games equals 179.2 per game; Ward stayed under 203.5 in four of five.
    • Titans offense ranks -0.168 EPA/play and 0.433 success rate; the scenario model gives the under 60%.
    • DraftKings prices the under -112, implying roughly 52.8% before applying the model estimate.
    • Indianapolis has allowed positive 0.0297 defensive EPA per play, a favorable matchup for Ward efficiency.
  16. Tennessee Titans team total under 18.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 11.6 points per game through five; Tennessee stayed under 18.5 in four of five.
    • Titans offense: -0.168 EPA/play, 0.433 success rate, and 1.16 points per drive.
    • Scenario model centers Tennessee near 14 points; own under probability 64% versus 51% price break-even.
    • Indianapolis has allowed 27.6 points per game, creating a real short-field and efficiency-upside risk.
  17. Cam Ward under 202.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 179.2 season average (896 yards through 5 games) sits 23.3 yards below the line, an 11.5% projection gap.
    • Under in 4 of 5 starts: 170, 222, 181, 183, and 140 passing yards.
    • Ward has a stable 100% snap share and 191 pass snaps; current participant data lists him active.
    • Indianapolis allowed +0.0297 defensive EPA per play over its last five, a mildly favorable matchup for Ward.
  18. Jonathan Taylor over 0.5 touchdownsFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jonathan Taylor owns 82.0% of Colts RB snaps, is the declared RB1, and carries a workhorse role; no RB sits ahead of him.
    • Indianapolis has 15 red-zone trips and 10 conversions through five games; Taylor has six rushing touchdowns in that span.
    • Colts' home offensive EPA is 0.0008 versus Tennessee's -0.1681; favorite-game-script assumption favors run concentration near the goal line.
    • Six touchdowns in five games is a small-sample scoring-rate signal and can regress sharply.
  19. Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts under 43.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The teams average 36.4 combined points across their respective last five games, 7.1 below 43.5.
    • Recent advanced offense EPA/play is -0.1082 for Tennessee and -0.0843 for Indianapolis.
    • Indianapolis averages 24.8 points and 2.282 points per drive, enough to threaten the full-game under alone.
  20. Daniel Jones under 1.5 passing touchdowns
    +78%Won

    Taken at −129 on DraftKings

    Why it likes it
    • L5: 100% under 1.5; L10: 80%; 2026 season: 100%.
    • Jones averages 0.6 passing touchdowns in 2026, 60% below the 1.5 line.
    • He has a 100% offensive snap share; own estimate is 71% versus 56.3% break-even at -129.
    • H2H is only two games and went 0-for-2 to the under, with Jones throwing three and one touchdowns.
  21. Elic Ayomanor over 16.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Why it likes it
    • L5: 60% over 16.5; L10: 70%; 2026 season: 60%.
    • Recent yards were 17, 22, 11, 69, 11; current-season average is 26.0 yards.
    • Indianapolis coverage grade is 43.9; Ayomanor has played 60.2% of Titans offensive snaps.
    • Ayomanor averages only 2.4 targets per current-season game, creating substantial opportunity variance.
  22. Daniel Jones over 30.5 passing attempts
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    Why it likes it
    • L5: 100% over 30.5 (44, 34, 36, 31, 31 attempts).
    • 60%; 2026 season: 100%; active three-game over streak.
    • A Colts lead could shift the offense toward Jonathan Taylor and reduce second-half attempts.
  23. Tennessee Titans to winLong shot
    +285%Won

    Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels were Titans 3 versus Colts 3; the two-measure thin/deep pattern qualifies, while levels do not corroborate.
    • Directional check: backing Tennessee Titans, the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • All three measures come from one ProphetX snapshot; cancellations, stale orders, or one participant can distort the ladder.
  24. Daniel Jones over 30.5 pass attempts
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 35.2 attempts per game through five weeks is 15.4% above the 30.5 projection.
    • Jones cleared 30.5 in all five games: 31, 31, 36, 34, and 44 attempts.
    • Riley Leonard is out; Jones is the active, full-time Colts quarterback with a 100% 2026 snap share.
    • Indianapolis is a 6.5-point favorite; a comfortable lead could shift the offense toward Jonathan Taylor and shorten Jones's workload.
  25. Game total under 28.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tier 2 interpolated SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle’s 44.0 total (-103/-109) anchors the center; this rung is 15.5 points below.
    • Colts average 66.6 plays and 2.282 points/drive; Titans average 55.8 plays and 1.160 points/drive, with combined observed scoring of 36.4 points/game.
    • This is a far-tail rung 15.5 points below the sharp center; distribution shape is less trusted than at central numbers.
  26. Indianapolis Colts first-half winner
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colts 7 days, Titans 7; no mismatch, so the EPA/possession signal carries the case.
    • Colts 2.2815 versus Titans 1.1602; Colts pace 30.644 versus 27.830 creates more first-half opportunity.
    • SHARP REFERENCE agrees direction: Pinnacle first-half Colts -235; Kalshi raw 0.63 is a fraction, filed as 63¢.
    • Rest gap is zero: no short-week or bye advantage, the brief's strongest mechanism is absent.
  27. First-half total under 20.5 points
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Rest is 7 days for both sides; the case is efficiency, not a rest mismatch.
    • to-date is materially better for Indianapolis: offense +0.0008 vs Tennessee -0.1681; success rate .4826 vs .4333; PPD 2.2815 vs 1.1602.
    • DraftKings directly posts 21.5 first-half points, Over -112 / Under -108; that higher-rung market supports the under direction but is not treated as the same rung.
    • No rest edge exists, and the 5.5-drives-per-team assumption is a model input rather than a verified game-specific possession forecast.
  28. Tennessee Titans second-half spread +3.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game signed home-margin SD 14.12; square-root drive scaling gives roughly 9.98 half SD, not a linear halving.
    • Only roughly 2 probability points above 54¢ before fees; this is a thin venue-self-reference edge.
  29. Josh Downs over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −147 on DraftKings

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 3/4/5 role trend: 67.6%/77.3%/84.5% snap share with 33/35/44 routes.
    • WR1 pecking order: 79.8% season snap share and the latest depth-chart snapshot lists Downs first at WR.
    • Indianapolis averaged 66.6 plays; projected 67 plays and about 39 dropbacks produce a 5.1-reception role projection.
    • There is no prior game with Tyler Warren absent, so route and target absorption is league-average rather than evidenced.
  30. Tennessee Titans 1Q to win
    0%Push

    Taken at +175 on BetMGM

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • AFC South matchup; Tennessee qualifies as the full-game spread underdog at +6.5.
    • Titans averaged 4.0 first-quarter points over their last five games, meeting the scripted-scoring gate.
    • Indianapolis allowed +0.129 EPA per play in the first quarter across 63 plays over its last five games.
    • Tennessee is 0-5 with a -10.2 average margin over its last five games.
  31. Game total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five-game EPA profile projects a low-scoring matchup: Titans offense -0.168 EPA/play; Colts offense +0.001.
    • Combined current-season scoring is 36.4 points per game (IND 24.8, TEN 11.6), below 43.5.
    • Grade-A comparable sample: 502 games with totals 42-45 since 2020; under went 262-233-7, positive in four seasons.
    • Colts defenses have allowed 27.6 points per game, so Tennessee’s offensive weakness may be offset by short fields or defensive scores.
  32. Game total under 45
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tennessee averages 11.6 points per game through five weeks, with -0.1681 offensive EPA/play and 1.1602 points per drive.
    • The PIT feature row has Indianapolis at 2.2815 points per drive versus Tennessee at 1.1602; the teams' observed scoring averages combine to 36.4 points.
    • My 58% win estimate is above the 55.36¢ contract price; the 45-point number also gives push protection at exactly 45.
    • Most likely loss: Indianapolis converts its 2.2815 points-per-drive profile into an unusually efficient home scoring day and the game reaches 46+.

Questions

Who won Titans vs. Colts?

The Titans won 26–20 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.