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Steelers vs. BuccaneersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRaymond James Stadium
Steelers3–2
26–19Final
Buccaneers1–4
Score by period
Team12345T
PIT03016726
TB31033019

Top model pick, graded

Won

Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 spread (half-point: no push; a two-point loss wins and a three-point loss loses) 61¢

Why House Rules likes it: the half-point +2.5 cannot push; a two-point Pittsburgh loss wins, while a three-point loss loses.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 16-21 on this game · −21% return

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers to win6 models agree
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    6 modelsKey Number Pairs, high-confidence main markets +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • Own projection is 58%; Pittsburgh's latest five-game offense EPA/play is 0.0056 versus Tampa Bay's -0.0052.
    • Aaron Rodgers grades 64.6 passing in 2026 versus Jalon Daniels at 56.3; Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield is officially out.
    • The estimated edge is modest: roughly 2.25 percentage points above the 55.75¢ break-even price.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Own 63% win estimate; fair price approximately -170 versus FanDuel -136.
    • Pittsburgh is 3-2 with a +0.4 recent scoring margin; Tampa Bay is 1-4 at -2.4.
    • Pittsburgh is on the road and its recent defense allowed positive EPA/play, while Tampa Bay’s defense has been better.
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • Baker Mayfield is officially out; Jalon Daniels is confirmed for his third straight start, while Aaron Rodgers is listed as Pittsburgh's starter.
    • Through five games, Pittsburgh's offense has the better recent EPA profile and explosive-play rate: +0.060 EPA/play and +2.8 explosive-rate points over Tampa Bay.
    • Tampa Bay has the rest edge, 10 days to Pittsburgh's 7, plus home field.
    NFL HunterV2
    • 61% model win probability versus 55.5% devigged FanDuel market probability.
    • Pittsburgh is 3-2 with +0.4 recent point margin; Tampa Bay is 1-4 at -2.4.
    • Tampa Bay owns the stronger recent defensive EPA profile (-0.0064 allowed/play versus Pittsburgh's +0.0021).
  2. Game total under 38.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    2 modelsForecast Under, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Forecast Under
    • Pinnacle main total remains 39.5 from the opener; -120 under/+105 over devigs to 52.8% under at 39.5.
    • NWS forecast has NNE wind at 14, 16 mph with 28 mph gusts; a roughly 2-point wind trim projects about 55.5% under at 38.5.
    • Sustained wind is borderline at 14, 16 mph, and the forecast could weaken; there is no precipitation.
    Number Earned
    • Fair total 37.0; estimated under probability 55.5% versus 52.8% break-even.
    • Tampa Bay is averaging -0.0052 offensive EPA/play over its last five; Pittsburgh allows only 1.93 points per drive.
    • Pittsburgh's recent defense allowed positive EPA/play, creating a path to Tampa Bay scoring efficiently at home.
  3. Game total under 392 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • current offensive EPA/play is only +0.0056 Pittsburgh and -0.0052 Tampa Bay; both offenses are near or below neutral.
    • Tampa Bay's Jalon Daniels start is confirmed in place of injured Baker Mayfield; the rookie-QB personnel change supports a lower scoring distribution.
    • Jalon Daniels could outperform the rookie-QB prior, while short fields or defensive scores bypass the low-offense thesis.
    Long Way Home
    • Baker Mayfield is officially out after three straight DNPs; Tampa's baseline is -0.0052 offensive EPA/play and 1.75 points/drive.
    • The ProphetX 39 line preserves a half-point over the sharp 38.5 at essentially the same price; Tampa's explosive rate is only 8.2%.
    • Most likely loss: Tampa's replacement quarterback creates explosive plays or short-field turnovers, pushing the game over 39.
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers exact margin 15+Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 3¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live reference is Pittsburgh -2.5 at -106, centering the Steelers margin near +2.5.
    • The Steelers-favored center makes Tampa Bay's 15+ direction materially less likely than the aggregate 15+ tail; the 8% estimate is model-sensitive.
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 spread (half-point: no push; a two-point loss wins and a three-point loss loses)High conviction
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the half-point +2.5 cannot push; a two-point Pittsburgh loss wins, while a three-point loss loses.
    • 25 margin history: exact two-point margins occurred 129 of 2,759 games, 4.676%.
    • ProphetX prices Steelers +2.5 at -158 (61.24c) versus Steelers +2 at -162 (61.83c); the superior rung is 0.59c cheaper.
    • No independent game-outcome projection; the edge is contractual, not a forecast that Pittsburgh covers.
  6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers first touchdown
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opening-drive TD sample: Pittsburgh 3/10 and Tampa Bay 2/11; 21 drives across 21 team-games, favoring Pittsburgh on the touchdown-specific question.
    • Tampa Bay's game-day QB is out; Pittsburgh's current offense has 1.93 points per drive versus Tampa Bay's 1.75.
    • Model estimate for TB being first touchdown: 0.42; model estimate for this NO side: 0.58 versus a 0.49 venue price.
    • Opening-kickoff recipient was not published before kickoff; possession order is the largest first-score input.
Show all 30 picks
  1. Jaylen Warren first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +550 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 17% versus 15.4% DraftKings break-even at +550.
    • Warren owns 76.1% of Pittsburgh RB snaps, 70 carries and 26 targets through five games.
    • His 85.6 PFF rushing grade and 4.09 yards after contact support early-down scoring access.
    • First-touchdown markets are extremely high variance; several Pittsburgh tight ends and DK Metcalf share red-zone paths.
  2. PIT-TB first-half total under 20.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is approximately 18.8 first-half points from the 38.5 full-game anchor, current pace, and 2026 points-per-drive inputs.
    • Baker Mayfield is officially out with a right-thumb injury; Tampa Bay also lists WR David Sills V out.
    • The 20.5 first-half plus 20.5 second-half ladders sum to 41 against a 38.5 full-game anchor; the expected late-game scoring bump belongs in the second half, making 1H the stronger under.
    • Mayfield's absence was reported before this price capture and may already be fully incorporated; double-counting the news would erase the edge.
  3. Cade Otton over 0.5 first-quarter receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    NFL 1st Quarter Player PropsUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 67%; DraftKings market probability 48.8%; edge +18.2 points.
    • Otton went over 0.5 Q1 receiving yards in all four observed games: 9, 14, 13, and 14 yards.
    • His Q1 sample produced 7 targets and 50 yards; current full-game targets are 4, 6, 6, and 4 across the last four.
    • The 4-for-4 Q1 sample is thin; one scoreless opening quarter makes the over lose.
  4. Bucky Irving over 15.5 first-quarter rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    NFL 1st Quarter Player PropsUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 70%; DraftKings market probability 49.0%; edge +21.0 points.
    • Irving cleared 15.5 in 4 of 5 Q1 logs: 21, 45, 20, 20, 5 yards.
    • He averaged 4.0 Q1 carries across those games; Tampa averaged 17.0 Q1 plays and 6.2 Q1 rushes.
    • The 5-yard Q1 is a clear miss path, and the five-game sample is still small.
  5. Aaron Rodgers over 220.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 275.3 passing yards per game across Weeks 3-5: 292, 299, 235.
    • 98.9% snap share over the last three; Rodgers is the clear primary quarterback.
    • 220.5 is 80% of the three-game average; DraftKings posted -113.
    • Tampa Bay's recent defense allowed -0.0949 EPA/play and carries a 70.7 PFF defensive grade.
  6. D.K. Metcalf under 50.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 115-yard outlier drives the recent overperformance; the other two games totaled 43 yards.
    • Metcalf is active but was listed DNP Saturday; an in-game limitation or late health change is not fully known.
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers under 23.5 team pointsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Pittsburgh offense is only +0.0056 EPA/play to date, facing Tampa Bay's -0.0064 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Pittsburgh averages 1.93 points per drive, but its matchup-specific efficiency and 15 mph NNE wind point below the 23.5 threshold.
    • Pittsburgh's regular-season red-zone sample is 6 conversions on 11 attempts; WR Roman Wilson and WR Ben Skowronek are ruled out.
    • Aaron Rodgers has no injury designation, but Pittsburgh's final active lineup and exact offensive personnel were not yet confirmed at this wake.
  8. Jaylen Warren over 15.8 fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 18.6 PPR points per game from 70 carries, 19 receptions, 2 total touchdowns.
    • 76.1% snap share and workhorse designation support stable opportunity.
    • Rico Dowdle remains a questionable committee variable for Pittsburgh.
  9. Jaylen Warren over 14.5 rushing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on BetMGM

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 15.2 carries per game over his last five; cleared 14.5 in four of five.
    • 70 carries in five games; 76.1% snap share and RB1 workhorse role.
    • Pittsburgh’s season rush rate is 35.6%; the -1.5 spread supports a competitive script.
    • Pittsburgh passes on 64.4% of plays; a negative script could reduce Warren’s carries.
  10. Pittsburgh Steelers first team touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh has 11 red-zone attempts and 6 conversions; Tampa Bay has 17 and 7, but Tampa now loses confirmed starter Baker Mayfield.
    • Pittsburgh leads pregame offense in EPA/play (+0.0056 vs Tampa -0.0052) and points per drive (1.93 vs 1.75).
    • Jaylen Warren carries a 76.1% snap share with a workhorse label; Rico Dowdle is game-day questionable, concentrating Pittsburgh backfield usage.
    • First-touchdown markets are highly volatile: a field goal, defensive score, or early turnover can bypass the offensive role thesis.
  11. Bucky Irving touchdowns 1+
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60.6% snap share with a workhorse role; no running back ranks ahead of him on Tampa Bay's current depth chart.
    • Irving has 77 carries, 18 targets and 3 touchdowns through five games, including two touchdowns in his latest game.
    • Tampa Bay has generated 17 red-zone trips and 8 conversions; Pittsburgh has allowed 8 opponent trips and 4 conversions.
    • Baker Mayfield is listed Out on the weekly report; the day-of quarterback confirmation is not yet present in the injury surface.
  12. Aaron Rodgers over 225.5 passing yards
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3/5 L5, 6/10 L10, and 3/5 this season cleared 225.5.
    • Recent-10 average is 247.0 yards, 9.5% above the line.
    • Rodgers owns a 98.2% 2026 snap share; Pittsburgh's recent pass rate is 63.3%.
    • Rodgers missed 225.5 in two of his last five, including 187 yards.
  13. Game total over 40
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing over 40, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The book-level count does not corroborate: 3 versus 3, leaving only the core two-measure signal.
  14. Pittsburgh Steelers −5
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing Pittsburgh Steelers -5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The book-level count does not corroborate: 3 versus 3, so this is not a three-measure confirmation.
  15. Jaylen Warren over 29.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 46.0 receiving yards per game through five weeks, 55.9% above the 29.5 projection.
    • Warren cleared 29.5 in four of his last five games: 34, 49, 33, and 87 yards.
    • He is Pittsburgh's RB1/workhorse with a 76.1% season snap share and 61.5% route participation.
    • The 87-yard outburst inflates the five-game mean; the prior four-game average was 35.8 yards.
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers total under 53.5Favorite
    +16%Won

    Taken at 86¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US's ladder last changed October 15; Tampa's official October 16 report ruled out QB Baker Mayfield.
    • an October 18 weather report says winds above 25 mph and roughly 30 mph gusts, compressing the extreme scoring right tail.
    • five-game averages are 64 Pittsburgh plays, 63 Tampa plays, and 1.93/1.75 points per drive; my tail estimate is about 91% under 53.5.
    • Far-tail model uncertainty is materially wider than at the center; the 91% estimate is not a precise forecast.
  17. Cade Otton over 26.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 39.3 receiving yards per game over the last three: 56, 37, 25.
    • 93.7% snap share, 35.3 routes and 5.3 targets per game in the three-game window.
    • 26.5 is 67% of Otton's recent yardage average; DraftKings posted -115.
    • Tampa Bay's 18.5-point implied total is modest and its season pass rate is only 55.3%.
  18. Game first-half total under 20.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Novig

    Half MeasureUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model first-half total 18.9 (0.49 × Pinnacle full-game 38.5) versus Novig 20.5: 1.6-point under gap.
    • Tampa Bay allowed 10.6 first-half points per game across five completed 2026 games.
    • Pinnacle's live first-half reference is 20.0, with the under priced -125.
    • Pittsburgh scored 12.0 and Tampa Bay 11.4 first-half points per game in the five-game sample, above the projection.
  19. Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair spread: Pittsburgh -4.0, a 1.5-point gap versus the -2.5 consensus.
    • Pittsburgh leads 2026 offense EPA/play 0.0056 to Tampa Bay -0.0052 and points/drive 1.93 to 1.751.
    • Pittsburgh’s PFF run-block grade is 78.0 versus Tampa Bay’s 46.4, a clear trench asymmetry.
    • Pinnacle held -2.5 but moved Pittsburgh from -114 to +100, a sharp-price drift toward Tampa Bay.
  20. Game total under 39.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 17 mph sustained wind forecast at Raymond James Stadium exceeds the 15 mph catalyst gate.
    • Recent offensive EPA/play is negative for both Pittsburgh (-0.020) and Tampa Bay (-0.080).
    • Recent points per drive are modest: Pittsburgh 1.776, Tampa Bay 1.582.
    • This is a single-catalyst spot; no qualifying short-week westward travel edge is present.
  21. Game total under 40.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 19 mph sustained northeast wind is the qualifying weather catalyst at kickoff.
    • Tampa Bay averaged 1.582 points per drive and -0.080 EPA/play over the recent window.
    • Baker Mayfield is listed out, adding quarterback uncertainty to Tampa Bay's scoring outlook.
    • 40.5 is already a low total; ordinary efficiency can still clear it.
  22. Pittsburgh Steelers over 7.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    Early NumberNew model
    Why it likes it
    • The sharp anchor is Tampa Bay +2.5/Pittsburgh -2.5; the anchored distribution still clears the 7.5 rung by about 4.1 points.
    • 7.5 is one half-point above the NFL's key 7, where the ladder's discount is visible: Pittsburgh over 6.5 is 34¢, but over 7.5 is 28¢.
    • Both quarterback situations were checked live: Jalon Daniels is confirmed for Tampa Bay; Pittsburgh's Aaron Rodgers has no current QB injury designation or uncertainty reported.
    • The edge barely clears the 4-point gate, so ordinary margin variance dominates.
  23. Darnell Washington under 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under hit in 3/5 L5, 6/10 L10, and 3/5 this season; all primary gates clear.
    • His current-season average is 2.2 receptions, 12% below the line.
    • DraftKings offers +100, a 50% break-even price; the 60% estimate is about -150 fair.
    • Every qualifying hit rate is exactly 60%, so the edge is marginal and sample-sensitive.
  24. D.K. Metcalf under 51.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under hit in 4/5 L5, 7/10 L10, and 4/5 this season.
    • His L5 average is 45.0 yards, 12.6% below the 51.5 line.
    • Metcalf has a 95.2% 2026 snap-share role; PFF records 225 yards on 37 targets.
    • Official reporting listed illness with a prior DNP; game-day health and workload remain uncertain.

Questions

Who won Steelers vs. Buccaneers?

The Steelers won 26–19 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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