Texans vs. JaguarsFinal score and model picks, graded
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 7 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 34 |
| JAX | 0 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 48.5 total 30¢
How the picks did
Models went 14-35 on this game · −40% return
- Jacksonville Jaguars to win−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX



6 modelsDrift, ProphetX Pairs +4Why 6 models like it
Drift- Model 61.0% Jaguars: home offensive EPA +0.079, defensive EPA edge +0.112, success-rate edge +2.2p, points/drive edge +0.527.
- Five-game current-season samples make the efficiency gap noisy, especially Jacksonville's strong defensive EPA.
ProphetX Pairs- Jacksonville leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.0966 to Houston's 0.0175 and defense EPA/play -0.1206 to -0.0087.
- Quarter-Kelly calculation is 2.0% raw at 60% fair; brief cap applied: 0.5% bankroll (0.5 units). One leg is intentional; no second leg is manufactured. Reference label: SHARP REFERENCE.
- The game is marked neutral-site, so Jacksonville receives no ordinary home-field boost despite being listed as home.
Brewing NFL Ml- Jacksonville last-five opponent-adjusted profile: +0.0966 offensive EPA/play and -0.1206 defensive EPA/play allowed; Houston: +0.0175 and -0.0087.
- Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud are both active in the current roster feed with no QB game-day designation; the scenario is explicitly priced by the live market.
- Houston's defense has a 70.0 pass-rush grade versus Jacksonville's 60.5; Jacksonville's 57.5 offensive pass-block grade leaves a clear pressure path to an upset.
Quantitative +EV Analyst- Jacksonville's current net EPA/play is +0.217 versus Houston's +0.026, a +0.191 differential.
- Conservative neutral-site adjustment still leaves Jacksonville above the DraftKings price.
- Houston's latest PFF team grade is 80.9 versus Jacksonville's 77.4, creating model disagreement.
- Jacksonville Jaguars spread −2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX


3 modelsKey Number Pairs, NFL Spread Detective +1Why 3 models like it
Key Number Pairs- Jacksonville’s +0.0966 offensive EPA/play and -0.1206 defensive EPA/play lead Houston’s +0.0175 and -0.0087.
- Key-number density: 419 of 2,839 NFL regular/postseason games had an absolute 3-point margin (14.8%).
- Texans have the better 2026 PFF QB grade: Stroud 81.2 versus Lawrence 76.5.
NFL Spread Detective- EPA strategy scores: Jacksonville +0.609 vs Houston +0.027; EPA Edge +0.582 clears 0.50.
- Primary EPA scores: Jacksonville +0.480 vs Houston -0.041; Primary EPA Edge +0.521 clears 0.20.
- Only five 2026 regular-season games inform the league-relative z-scores; samples range from 108 to 196 plays per split.
Long Way Home- Edge class: PROJECTION; reference label: SHARP REFERENCE.
- Jacksonville averaged +0.0966 offensive EPA/play and -0.1206 defensive EPA/play allowed through five regular-season games; Houston averaged +0.0175 and -0.0087.
- The five-game EPA sample is early-season and unadjusted for opponent strength.
- Bhayshul Tuten first touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +700 on DraftKings

2 modelsTD Value Model · DraftKings, PaydirtWhy 2 models like it
TD Value Model · DraftKings- 82 carries, 349 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs through five games; early-down-hammer role is live.
- Jacksonville averages 2.352 points per drive in the recent window versus Houston's 1.616.
- Chris Rodriguez has 2 rushing TDs on only 28 carries, creating real goal-line competition.
Paydirt- 13¢ venue price; usage estimate is 16%, a three-point disagreement.
- Current-day depth chart lists Tuten RB1; no unresolved backfield player sits ahead of him.
- First-touchdown markets are extremely high variance; a pass-catcher or Houston could score first.
- Game total under 42.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

2 modelsPace Ledger, Brewing NFL Totals 2.0Why 2 models like it
Pace Ledger- 2 × the first-half 21.5 total is 43, still 0.5 above the full-game rung.
- Most likely loss: 61.87-play pace plus positive PROE converts into explosive pass production and 43+ points.
Brewing NFL Totals 2.0- Matchup projection is 41.5 points: Houston offense is +0.0175 EPA/play against Jacksonville defense at -0.1206.
- Combined current pace is 61.87 seconds per play; Houston averages 2.061 points/drive and Jacksonville 2.589.
- The 60% rain chance may not produce meaningful game-time rain; 12-mph wind is only a modest weather effect.
- Over 48.5 total+233%Won
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days - Over 42.5 total+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NFL total 42.5: power model projects 44.1 points and 54.5% Over from EPA, success, explosive rate, pace and points/drive.
- Both teams have seven rest days and the neutral Wembley setting removes a home-rest edge; current-season samples are only five games.
Show all 40 picks
- Jacksonville Jaguars by 7-14−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US
Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's fresh main spread is Jacksonville -2.5; the selected home-favored side is directionally coherent.
- The 2.7-point raw edge is model-dependent; the 13.5-point margin-dispersion assumption is not directly estimated for this matchup.
- Over total 45.5+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- JAX offense: 0.0966 EPA/play and 2.589 points/drive; HOU's defense is near-neutral at -0.0087 EPA allowed/play.
- HOU PROE is +15.7%; JAX converted 50% of fourth downs, supporting aggressive scoring paths.
- Houston is missing RB David Montgomery, WR Tank Dell and two offensive tackles; those absences can suppress scoring.
- Jacksonville Jaguars spread over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Key NumberUp 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle main: Jacksonville -2.5 (-108) / Houston +2.5 (-104); devigged Jacksonville cover probability 50.9%.
- Current form supports a +1.0-point Jacksonville model shift: Jaguars 4-1, +10.6 margin/game; Texans 1-4, -0.4; Jacksonville defensive EPA -0.121 vs Houston -0.009.
- Jacksonville's Montaric Brown is out at corner; Houston's high PROE and faster pace can create a backdoor Texans margin.
- Jakobi Meyers anytime touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at +330 on DraftKings
TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Meyers owns 18 targets, 15 catches and 2 TDs in five games with an 80.8% snap share.
- DraftKings +330 implies 23.3% before margin; the model clears that by roughly 1.7 percentage points.
- Houston's recent defense has allowed -0.0254 EPA per play, a meaningful matchup counterweight.
- Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars first-half total under 20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US
Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE with a sharp full-game anchor.
- 0-0 with 8:14 left in Q1: 6:46 of the 30-minute half has elapsed without a score.
- 2026 matchup baseline blends to 41.5 full-game points: JAX 24.6 PF vs HOU 22.4 PA, HOU 22.0 PF vs JAX 14.0 PA.
- The full-game scoring baseline is 41.5, above the sharp 40-point anchor; normal efficiency recovery can produce 21+ first-half points.
- Kayshon Boutte over 22.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Boutte averages 31.7 receiving yards over his last three games; 22.5 is only 71% of that projection.
- Tank Dell is officially out; Boutte has 5, 4, and 5 targets in his last three games.
- Jacksonville's recent defense has allowed -0.1197 EPA per play over its last 10 games, a strong overall profile.
- Over total 43+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days - Jacksonville Jaguars spread −4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jacksonville leads current five-game form in offense EPA 0.0966 to 0.0175, defensive EPA allowed -0.1206 to -0.0087, and points per drive 2.589 to 2.061.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville wins by 1-4 points; Houston winning outright also loses the ticket.
- Trevor Lawrence under 228.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- O-line gate is partially verified: Anton Harrison is on IR; Pregnon was limited but active and Van Lanen full.
- Pass matchup: Jacksonville OL grades 57.5 with 96.5 PBE versus Houston DL 70.0, including a 75.2 edge grade.
- Mechanism is credible: Jacksonville has allowed 48 pressures and seven sacks; Lawrence averaged 2.72 seconds to throw across five games.
- Lawrence averages 234.8 passing yards and threw for 331 last week, so the line is close to his mean.
- Houston Texans spread +7.5+37%Won
Taken at 73¢ on Novig
Key RungDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Crossing margins 3 (~9%), 4 (~4%), 5 (~2.5%), 6 (~4%), and 7 (~6%) lifts fair value to about 75.7%.
- The key-number masses are a rough table, not a complete margin distribution; the 75.7% fair estimate could be overstated.
- Houston Texans wins by over 3.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi
Early NumberNew modelWhy it likes it
- 2020, 25 comparable home spreads from -2.5 to -3.5 produced a 30.7% away margin-of-four rate; key-number reweight lifts my estimate to 33%.
- The 3.5 rung sits one half-point beyond the key number 3, where margin mass is concentrated.
- The comparable sample is broad and does not model these specific teams beyond the sharp anchor.
- Houston Texans to win+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Five-game efficiency matchup: Houston offense versus Jacksonville defense is +0.1381 EPA/play (0.0175 − -0.1206), versus Jacksonville's +0.1053 (0.0966 − -0.0087).
- Neutral Wembley venue and seven rest days each remove home-field and rest adjustments from the comparison.
- PFF confirmation: Houston leads overall grade 80.9-77.4 and pass-rush grade 75.5-62.2; sportsbook reference still makes Jacksonville -134.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville's 4-1 record and +10.6 recent scoring margin produce a Jaguars win despite the efficiency matchup.
- Houston Texans spread +1.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Five-game read: Houston's offense-vs-Jacksonville defense matchup gap is +0.1381 EPA/play, versus Jacksonville's +0.1053 against Houston.
- Neutral Wembley venue and seven rest days each remove a home-field or rest adjustment from the efficiency comparison.
- PFF confirmation: Houston leads overall grade 80.9-77.4 and pass-rush grade 75.5-62.2; Pinnacle's reference is Jacksonville -2.5.
- Most likely loss: Jacksonville's 4-1 form and +10.6 recent scoring margin produce a Jaguars win by two or more.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. over 22.5 receiving yards+89%Won
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected 65.4 yards from 10 targets at his 6.54 season yards-per-target rate; actual last three: 52.
- The 65.4-yard projection is 190.7% above the 22.5-yard market line; the odds feed lists him Active for this game.
- This is Harrison's first game after moving from Arizona to Houston; his Texans route and target role are unobserved.
- Jakobi Meyers over 34.5 receiving yards+92%Won
Taken at −109 on DraftKings
NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected 168.3 yards from 15 targets at his 11.22 season yards-per-target rate; actual last three: 134.
- 82.4% average offensive snap share across the last three games; snaps stayed between 80.6% and 84.7%.
- Projection of 56.1 yards is 62.6% above the 34.5-yard market line.
- His recent 44.7-yard average is already above the line, so the regression signal may be partly recognized.
- Houston Texans team total under 21.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Named edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE + PROJECTION.
- HOU offense is only +0.0175 EPA/play to date against JAX's -0.1206 defensive EPA/play allowed; I fit Houston near 18.5-19 points.
- Wembley forecast has 12-mph wind with 22-mph gusts, widening the downside for a pass-heavy Houston offense.
- Houston already has 7 points with 5:13 left in Q1; another early touchdown sharply reduces the under cushion.
- Houston Texans under 20.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
One ColumnUp 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston offense is +0.0175 EPA/play versus Jacksonville defense at -0.1206 EPA/play allowed, a defense-favored matchup.
- Red-zone conversion is 12-for-21 (57.1%); Houston's 20.5 board number is slightly high versus the matchup projection.
- Board coherence is close but not exact: Houston 20.5 plus Jacksonville 21.5 equals 42, below the 42.5 game total; the TT split implies only a one-point margin versus Jacksonville -2.5.
- Jacksonville's defense could fail to carry its season EPA profile, producing explosive Houston drives or short fields.
- Jacksonville Jaguars win by 15 or more−100%Lost
Taken at 16¢ on Kalshi
NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- EPA matchup projects Jacksonville by roughly 5.8 points versus the market’s Jaguars -2.5 spread.
- Jaguars lead current-season/L5 offense EPA (+0.0966 vs +0.0175) and defensive EPA allowed (-0.1206 vs -0.0087).
- Jacksonville leads success rate by 2.16 percentage points and points per drive by 0.53.
- The sample is only five 2026 games, so L5 and season EPA are identical and vulnerable to schedule noise.
- Game total under 43.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on BetMGM
Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live 7-0 Houston lead with 5:13 in Q1; state is confirmed by the game row and live score feed.
- Houston has +0.344 EPA/play and 62.5% success; Jacksonville is at -0.546 EPA/play and 36.4% success.
- Only 19 offensive plays have produced one touchdown; both live pace readings remain measured rather than frantic.
- Houston’s 42-yard Collins catch and Moreau touchdown show real explosive-score risk.
- C.J. Stroud under 1.5 passing touchdowns−100%Lost
Taken at −155 on BetMGM
NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Scenario-weighted model: 65% under versus 57.4% devigged market probability, a 7.6-point edge.
- Stroud has 6 passing TDs in 5 games (1.2 per game) on 185 attempts; regression supports fewer than two.
- Jacksonville has allowed 70 points in five games and posted -0.1206 defensive EPA/play over its last five.
- Five-game sample is short, and Stroud has thrown zero interceptions; a clean red-zone game can produce two scores.
- Bhayshul Tuten over 63.5 rushing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 69.8 season rushing yards per game (349 in 5) is 9.9% above the 63.5 line.
- Tuten cleared 63.5 yards in all five 2026 games: 66, 65, 73, 73, 72.
- 82 season carries (16.4 per game) and a 68.1% snap share last week support a stable lead-back role.
- Five-game sample creates meaningful variance around efficiency and workload.
- Jacksonville Jaguars first team touchdown−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- JAX YES is quoted at 44¢ with both sides live and tradable.
- JAX has converted 9 of 14 red-zone trips this season (64%), versus HOU 10 of 18 (56%).
- Live drives: JAX reached the HOU 37 on its second possession; HOU's first drive started at its own 6 and punted after three plays.
- First-touchdown outcomes are highly one-play sensitive; a turnover, explosive play, or defensive touchdown can dominate usage.
- Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns+116%Won
Taken at +116 on FanDuel
+EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3 of Lawrence's 5 starts cleared 1.5 pass TDs; his five-game average is 2.0.
- Jacksonville's offense leads this matchup in EPA/play (0.0966 to Houston's 0.0175) and points/drive (2.5889 to 2.0614).
- Only five 2026 games underpin the touchdown-rate estimate; Week 2 produced zero passing TDs.
- Houston Texans −3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Directional check: backing Houston Texans -3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; price is 30.77¢.
- Longshot +225 equivalent: one score or margin swing loses despite the depth pattern.
- under 44.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX under 44.5 wins at exactly 44; ProphetX under 44 pushes at exactly 44.
- Exact 44 totals occurred in 100 of 2,637 NFL regular-season games from 2016-25: 3.792%.
- ProphetX prices under 44.5 at 59.02c (-144) versus under 44 at 57.63c (-136): only a 1.39-point premium for 3.792% added win mass.
- This is not a projection of the Texans-Jaguars total; 45 or more points loses the ticket.
- Parker Washington over 63.5 receiving yards+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 70.4 receiving yards per game over five; 11% above the 63.5 line.
- Cleared 63.5 in three of five, including 124 yards last week; averaged 7.0 targets.
- Jacksonville posts 0.0966 offensive EPA/play, 0.5078 success rate, and 32.4-second pace to date.
- Only five games in the sample; two finished below the line, including seven yards on three targets.
- First-half total over 20.5 points+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION. Rest is 7 days each; there is no rest mismatch to inflate the model.
- EPA to date favors Jacksonville: offense +0.0966 vs Houston +0.0175, defense allowed -0.1206 vs -0.0087; success rate is .5078 vs .4862.
- SHARP REFERENCE (directly comparable 1H sportsbook): DraftKings Over 20.5 -108 / Under -112; devigged Over reference is 49.6%, versus my 53% projection.
- No rest edge exists, and the Kalshi price is close to the directly comparable sportsbook reference; this is a thin model lean, not a clear venue error.
- Jacksonville Jaguars 1H winner−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 7 rest days each: no rest edge, but Pinnacle's full-game Jacksonville -2.5 supports the side.
- JAX owns a +0.0791 offensive EPA gap, +0.1119 defensive EPA gap, and +0.0216 success-rate gap to Houston.
- JAX leads points per drive 2.5889 to 2.0614; slower JAX pace (32.418 vs 29.452 seconds/play) tempers the scoring script but favors control.
- Equal 7-7 rest removes the brief's strongest lever; this is an EPA-only edge.
- Jacksonville Jaguars spread −2−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Jacksonville leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.0966 to 0.0175 and defense EPA/play -0.1206 to -0.0087.
- Recent form supports the same direction: Jacksonville is 4-1 with +10.6 average margin over its last five; Houston is 1-4 at -0.4.
- Pinnacle shows Jacksonville -2.5 at -103; ProphetX offers the more favorable -2 at a comparable price.
- The game is marked neutral-site, so Jacksonville gets no ordinary home-field advantage despite being listed as home.
- Houston Texans 1Q to win+110%Won
Taken at +110 on FanDuel
NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texans scored 20 first-quarter points over five games: 4.0 per game, meeting the brief's scripted-scoring gate.
- Houston's recent first-quarter scoring differential is +8 total, or +1.6 per game.
- Same-division AFC South matchup; Houston is a confirmed 1Q underdog at +110 FanDuel.
- Jacksonville's defense allowed -0.39 EPA per first-quarter play over its last five, failing the opposing-defense confirmation factor.
- C.J. Stroud over 251.5 passing yards+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
Early DownUp 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pass attempts rose 27 → 31 → 34 over Weeks 3-5; he played 100% of snaps each game.
- Passing yards averaged 258.3 across those three games, above the 251.5-yard line.
- Jacksonville allowed 1,181 passing yards on 156 attempts over the last four games: 295.3 yards per game.
- The 167-yard Week 3 outing shows the downside if Houston's attempts fall back toward 27.
- Jacksonville Jaguars 1H −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted first-half scoring projects Jacksonville +2.0 points; the posted line is Jaguars -0.5.
- Jacksonville’s 2026 pregame profile leads Houston by 0.079 EPA/play on offense and 0.112 EPA/play on defense.
- Jaguars first-half scoring averaged 13.6 versus Houston’s 11.8 across five games; the matchup-adjusted margin is wider.
- The five-game first-half sample is thin; Jacksonville’s matchup-adjusted edge depends heavily on defensive splits.
- Woody Marks over 0.5 touchdowns−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US
PaydirtUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- David Montgomery is game-day OUT; Marks is the only remaining Houston back with a season-long committee-lead role and 53.1% snap share.
- Marks led Houston's backfield in total snaps (178) before the injury, while depth RB Dare Ogunbowale had only 1 snap.
- Houston has produced 10 red-zone scores on 18 trips; JAX opponents have reached the red zone 15 times but scored only 5 touchdowns.
- Houston is a road underdog with only 2.061 points per drive and Jacksonville's defense has -0.1206 EPA/play to date.
- Kayshon Boutte over 23.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −109 on DraftKings
Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- L5, L10, and 2026-season hit rates are each 60% (3/5, 6/10, 3/5).
- 2026 receiving-yard average is 30.6, 30.2% above the 23.5-yard line.
- Snap share stabilized at 59.1%-71.6% after Week 1, with 20-51 routes per game.
- All primary hit-rate gates clear by only the minimum 60% margin.
Questions
Who won Texans vs. Jaguars?
The Texans won 34–31 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.