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Bills vs. RaidersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAllegiant Stadium
Bills4–1
33–30Final
Raiders3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
BUF310101033
LV7601730

Top model pick, graded

Won

Las Vegas Raiders spread +10.5 70¢

Why House Rules likes it: Raiders +10.5 wins if Buffalo wins by exactly 10; Raiders +10 only pushes.

House RulesDown 3% this season · 1401 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 25-29 on this game · +369% return

  1. Buffalo Bills to winFavorite3 models agree
    +42%Won

    Taken at −238 on DraftKings

    3 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Shawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter +1
    Why 3 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Own win probability 72%; fair price approximately -257 versus DraftKings -238.
    • Bills lead in pre-kickoff offense EPA/play, 0.1853 to 0.0114, and success rate, 0.5197 to 0.4614.
    • Raiders have the better pregame defense EPA, -0.0304 allowed versus Buffalo's +0.1013.
    Shawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter
    • Live win-probability model gives Buffalo 64.5% after the latest Q2 sequence; fair price about -182.
    • The moneyline avoids needing Buffalo to clear the live -2.5 spread while the model only establishes a win edge.
    • Las Vegas' opening drive produced +0.571 EPA/play and 66.7% success, although that is a one-drive sample.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Buffalo leads recent points per drive 3.15 to 2.219; FPI independently projects Buffalo at 72.0% with a 6.1-point margin.
    • Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins are both live-confirmed QB1s; no unmodeled starter scenario remains.
    • The net EPA/play advantage is only 0.0422, below the brief's 0.05 reference threshold.
  2. Brock Bowers over 81.5 receiving yards2 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 104 receiving yards per game across his last three; the 81.5 line is 78% of that output.
    • Buffalo's recent defensive EPA allowed is +0.1013 and its coverage grade is 35.0, a favorable matchup.
    • His 3-game sample is small and includes two strong outings; regression is substantial.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 104.0 receiving yards per game across his three 2026 appearances, 27.6% above 81.5.
    • Bowers cleared this line in all three games: 110, 86, and 116 yards.
    • Only three-game sample; one explosive-play-dependent profile is noisy.
  3. Las Vegas Raiders +5.52 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Luck Regression, NFL HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Luck Regression
    • Luck Score: Buffalo +0.045 vs Las Vegas -0.476; Luck Difference +0.521 clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary Luck Difference +0.212 clears the 0.20 trigger, driven by fumble recovery luck.
    • This is only five games of 2026 data; fumble and red-zone rates are high-variance early-season samples.
    NFL HunterV2
    • Scenario distribution centers Buffalo near a 3-point win; Las Vegas covers +5.5 in 58.2% of simulations.
    • DraftKings -112 breaks even at 52.8%, creating a 5.4-point model edge before sportsbook fees.
    • Buffalo leads recent form 4-1 and averages +0.185 offensive EPA/play over five games.
  4. James Cook over 93.5 rushing yards2 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Usage Adventure, Shoulders of Giants
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Usage Adventure
    • 113.3 rushing yards per game across his last three; 93.5 is 82.5% of that trailing average.
    • Cook has 24, 12, and 25 carries in the last three and a 59%, 67% snap share; he remains Buffalo's RB1/workhorse.
    • The Raiders' defense has a mildly positive recent profile at -0.0304 defensive EPA per play allowed, so the matchup is not a pure plus.
    Shoulders of Giants
    • Run trench edge: Buffalo's 70.6 PFF run-block grade faces Las Vegas' 57.8 DL run-defense grade; Tonka Hemingway is confirmed out for the Raiders.
    • Pass trench is a separate, less favorable Bills angle: Buffalo pass block 57.9 versus Las Vegas pass rush 68.8 and 10.4% win rate. Conversely, Las Vegas pass block 57.9 faces Buffalo pass rush 69.3 and 10.3% win rate.
    • Buffalo could trail or face a compressed game script, shifting work from Cook to Josh Allen's passing game.
  5. Game total over 53.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Five-game sample: Buffalo offense is +0.1853 EPA/play against Las Vegas defense at -0.0304 allowed; Las Vegas offense is +0.0114 against Buffalo defense at +0.1013 allowed.
    • Recent five-game scoring averages are 32.8 Bills points and 26.4 Raiders points, a 59.2 combined baseline against 53.5.
    • Most likely loss: Las Vegas stalls against Buffalo despite the Bills' +0.1013 defensive EPA allowed, leaving the game below 54 points.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, 7 of 10 combined team-game totals cleared 53.5 (Bills 4/5, Raiders 3/5).
    • Bills’ last five totals: 67, 72, 40, 55, 71; four cleared this threshold.
    • A 53.5 total is already elevated, so the recent-over sample may be fully reflected.
  6. Buffalo Bills spread −5.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, NFL Spread Detective
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Five-game sample: Buffalo offense +0.1853 EPA/play versus Las Vegas defense -0.0304; Las Vegas offense +0.0114 versus Buffalo defense +0.1013, a +0.3056 matchup differential toward Buffalo.
    • PFF 2026 card favors Buffalo's offense 74.7-69.5; the efficiency read is reinforced by Buffalo's 4-1 recent record versus Las Vegas 3-2.
    • Most likely loss: Buffalo wins by 1-5 points; Las Vegas has home field and one extra rest day.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Buffalo EPA Strategy Score 0.342 vs Las Vegas -0.321; EPA Edge +0.663 clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary EPA: Buffalo 0.148 vs Las Vegas -0.264; Primary EPA Edge +0.412 clears the 0.20 trigger.
    • The split EPA and explosive rates are derived from only five 2026 regular-season games, so one or two outlier performances materially affect z-scores.
Show all 43 picks
  1. Tre Tucker over 38.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL Regression Radar, Target Quality Yards
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Regression Radar
    • 5.67 targets per game over his last three; 9.79 season yards per target implies 55.5 expected yards.
    • Actual yardage averaged 42.7 across those games, a 23% underperformance versus target-based expectation.
    • Raiders spread targets among Bowers, Mayer, Jeanty and White; target share can fall despite routes.
    Target Quality Yards
    • NGS REG, 3 current-season games: intended air yards were 18.96, 16.01 and 11.45 (15.48 average); separation rose 1.81 to 2.25 to 3.35 yards.
    • PFF REGPO, 5 games: 25.0% deep plus 28.6% medium targets (53.6%); 1.78 YPRR, 65.7 pass-route grade and 93.3% route rate.
    • Partial coverage: three current NGS rows and five PFF REGPO games leave a wide outcome distribution.
  2. Dalton Kincaid under 4.5 receptions2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Only 3 receptions in Kincaid's last 2 games on 4 total targets.
    • Season role is active but modest: 16 receptions on 21 targets across 5 games.
    • Kincaid cleared 4.5 receptions in each of Buffalo's first two games.
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5 under hit rate is 60% (3/5); L10 is 70% (7/10); 2026 season is 60% (3/5).
    • Season average is 3.2 receptions, 28.9% below the 4.5 market line.
    • The H2H sample is one game, and Kincaid caught 5 passes against Las Vegas.
  3. Las Vegas Raiders to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Raiders 3 versus Bills 3, neutral; the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it core pairing supplies two agreeing measures.
    • Secondary SHARP REFERENCE: captured Pinnacle was Raiders +179/Bills -222; backing Raiders, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the Raiders read (3-3), so the signal is narrower than a full three-measure confirmation.
    Long Way Home
    • Pinnacle also prices Las Vegas as a live dog at +201; ProphetX adds nine American cents to that same-side sharp reference.
    • Most likely loss: Buffalo's +0.185 offensive EPA/play and 32.8 points per game overwhelm Las Vegas, producing a multi-score Bills win.
  4. Game total under 53.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsWeatherman, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Weatherman
    • Buffalo has 5 days since its 10/12 Monday game, per the live schedule read.
    • East Coast Buffalo travels three time zones west to Las Vegas on short rest.
    • Allegiant Stadium is indoor, so there is no wind assistance.
    Number Earned
    • 55% model probability; fair line about -122 versus DraftKings -108.
    • Current point-per-drive inputs are 3.15 for Buffalo and 2.219 for Las Vegas; the Raiders' offense is the key total drag.
    • Buffalo's current defense allows +0.1013 EPA/play; recent five-game points allowed averaged 28.2.
  5. Las Vegas Raiders exact margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live anchor is Buffalo -4.5 (-110), favoring Buffalo but leaving Raiders margin tails live.
    • Reweighting the absolute-margin buckets to that histogram and splitting direction around Buffalo -4.5 gives roughly 11.5% for Raiders by 7-14.
    • Evaluated alternatives: Raiders 1-6 modeled about 18% at 12c; Buffalo 7-14 modeled about 19% at 24c and was rejected.
    • The warehouse histogram is for absolute margins; the team-direction split is a smooth-model assumption, not a team-specific historical estimate.
  6. Las Vegas Raiders spread +10.5FavoriteHigh conviction
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raiders +10.5 wins if Buffalo wins by exactly 10; Raiders +10 only pushes.
    • ProphetX quotes Raiders +10 and +10.5 identically at 69.7c.
    • Bills winning by 11 or more loses both Raiders spread contracts.
  7. Over total 55.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Allegiant Stadium is confirmed indoors; key-number mass was computed from 2,840 regular/postseason games this wake.
    • Most likely loss: Las Vegas' -0.030 EPA/play defense and 29.59 pace suppress scoring below 56.
  8. Buffalo Bills spread −8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
  9. Over 52.5 total
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Derived-rung anchor: p_anchor 54.4% at 52.5; +0.75 total-point adjustment gives p_model 56.6%; EV_anchor +0.8%, EV_model +4.9%.
    • Buffalo WR DJ Moore is out, Las Vegas WR Dont'e Thornton Jr. is out, and the Raiders' -0.0304 defensive EPA allowed can suppress scoring.
  10. Buffalo Bills spread 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  11. Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders 2Q total under 18.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • REFERENCE; fitted under probability 75% versus the 57¢ contract price.
    • season points per drive are 2.88 Buffalo and 2.51 Las Vegas.
    • Combined pace is 31.2/29.6 seconds per play; 19 second-quarter points is an upper-tail outcome.
    • Quarter scoring is fat-tailed; one explosive play, short field, or defensive score can break the under.
  12. Buffalo Bills spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Buffalo leads points per drive 3.15-2.22; live ProphetX passing markets identify Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins as the quarterbacks.
    • Movement favors Buffalo: Pinnacle Raiders +4.5 moved from -103 open to +100 current, roughly 50.7% to 50.0%.
    • Raiders have the better defensive EPA allowed mark (-0.030 versus Buffalo +0.101); that can keep the margin below five.
  13. Keon Coleman anytime touchdownLong shot
    +265%Won

    Taken at +265 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2 touchdowns on 18 targets through five games; his PFF route grade is 79.1.
    • DJ Moore is ruled out, with Coleman coming off a 71.4% snap share and 27 routes.
    • Las Vegas carries a 41.5 coverage grade, a favorable matchup for Buffalo's outside receivers.
    • Coleman's target sample remains small, and Buffalo has several established red-zone options.
  14. Josh Allen first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +550 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 rushing touchdowns on 43 attempts through five games; goal-line role remains central.
    • Buffalo owns a 3.15 recent points-per-drive mark and a 49.3% season rush rate.
    • Las Vegas has a 57.8 run-defense grade, creating quarterback-scramble and designed-run access.
    • Eight rushing touchdowns is an extreme five-game rate and invites regression.
  15. Game first-half total under 26.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Square-root scaling of drive variance makes half tails wider than linear halving; with the mean slightly below 26.5, the under retains a modest distributional edge.
    • posted 1H and 2H thresholds sum to 53.0 versus the 53.5 full-game total; the expected late scoring bump supports a slightly lower 1H mean.
    • Buffalo's +0.1853 offensive EPA/play and Las Vegas's fast pace can create an early short-field scoring burst.
  16. Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 first-half spread
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
    • Current-season inputs: Buffalo off EPA/play +0.185 vs. Raiders +0.011; pace is 31.20 vs. 29.59 seconds/play.
    • Fitted first-half margin centers near Buffalo -2.2, making Raiders +3.5 approximately 58% rather than the board's 51¢ cost.
    • A Bills explosive opening script or Raiders negative early efficiency can push the halftime margin beyond 3.5.
  17. Buffalo Bills spread −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bills form leads: +0.1853 offensive EPA/play, .5197 success, .1609 explosive rate and 3.15 points/drive; +1.0 margin ledger gives p_model 48.3%.
    • Most likely loss: Buffalo wins by six or fewer as Las Vegas defensive EPA is better and home field creates a close-game path.
  18. Game total under 54.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's full-game 54.5 is 1.5 points above its 24.5 + 28.5 team-total anchors.
    • 54.5 is also 1.5 above twice the 26.5 first-half total.
    • Personnel gate passed: fresh ESPN game-day feed confirmed DJ Moore and Aidan O'Connell out; starting QB statuses were not listed inactive, cross-checked against nfl_injury_latest.
    • Most likely loss: Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins convert the positive PROE environment into enough explosive scoring to reach 55.
  19. Buffalo Bills over 27.5 team points
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup fit: BUF offense +0.185 EPA/play; LV defense −0.030, with Buffalo averaging 32.8 points in five regular-season games.
    • Buffalo averages 3.15 points per drive and converted 15 of 21 regular-season red-zone trips.
    • Coherence: 53.5 game total plus 4.5-point Buffalo margin implies roughly 29 Buffalo points, above 27.5.
    • LV’s −0.030 defensive EPA is positive; a merely solid defense can still hold Buffalo below 28.
  20. Total points over 53
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent totals average 61.0 for Buffalo and 53.8 for Las Vegas; the blended 57.4-point baseline clears 53.
    • Buffalo's recent offense posts +0.1853 EPA/play and 3.15 points/drive; Las Vegas adds +0.0114 EPA/play and 2.219 points/drive.
    • Combined pace is strong: Buffalo 31.20 seconds/play and Las Vegas 29.59; DK and Pinnacle both reference 53.5, supporting the higher projection.
    • The ticket loses at 52 or fewer points; exactly 53 is a push rather than a win.
  21. Josh Allen over 24.9 PPR fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 29.4 PPR points per game through five weeks under Sleeper's verified scoring.
    • Buffalo averages 32.8 points per game; game total is 53.5 in a dome.
    • Eight rushing touchdowns in five games is an extreme rate and is shrunk heavily in the projection.
  22. Buffalo Bills winning margin 1 to 6Long shot
    +400%Won

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-five EPA net differential is +0.042 points/play for Buffalo, roughly +2.5 points over 60 plays.
    • The 1, 6 band captures key-number density around 3 and 6 in a projected Bills margin near 7.
    • The projected margin is only about 2.5 points above the market's Bills -4.5 reference, below the high-conviction 4-point bar.
  23. Ashton Jeanty over 14.5 rushing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −117 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17.6 average attempts across five 2026 games versus a 14.5 line; 21% projection-to-line gap.
    • Jeanty has cleared 14.5 in four of five games with attempts of 23, 21, 19, 15, and 10.
    • He is LV's RB1 workhorse at 71.9% snaps, with 62.3% route participation and no competing back near his role.
    • Buffalo is favored by 5.5 and owns a 0.1853 away offensive EPA/play, creating meaningful negative-script risk.
  24. Buffalo Bills first team touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Buffalo has 21 red-zone trips and 15 conversions (71.4%) through five games.
    • Las Vegas has allowed 14 conversions on 18 opponent red-zone trips (77.8%).
    • Buffalo leads the matchup in offense: 0.1853 EPA/play and 3.15 points/drive versus Las Vegas at 2.219 points/drive.
    • Coin-toss result and opening-drive sequencing are unknown; Las Vegas can score first despite Buffalo's stronger offense.
  25. James Cook III touchdowns over 0.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 5 rushing TDs on 95 carries through five games.
    • RB1 workhorse role: 67.4% snap share, 45.6% run-snap rate, and no unresolved player ahead in the depth chart.
    • Bills are a 5.5-point favorite; script assumption is that a lead increases Cook's goal-line rushing equity.
    • Josh Allen has 8 rushing TDs in five games, creating meaningful goal-line competition for Cook.
  26. Game total under 51.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The adjacent ProphetX under 51 whole-number rung pushes at exactly 51; under 51.5 wins there.
    • NFL finals 2016-25 landed exactly on 51 in 113 of 2,759 games: 4.096% push-option mass.
    • ProphetX charges 42.74c for under 51.5 versus 41.32c for under 51: only 1.42c for converting that outcome from push to win.
    • Under 51.5 loses at 52 or more, and the current full-game reference total is 53.5.
  27. Khalil Shakir over 44.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 51.2 receiving yards per game over five 2026 games, 15.1% above the 44.5 line.
    • Shakir has 80 and 82 yards in his last two games, a 81.0-yard recent average.
    • He is listed as Buffalo's WR2 on the current 3WR/1TE depth chart and owns 130 routes.
    • He cleared 44.5 in only three of five games; two games finished at 38 and 6 yards.
  28. Buffalo Bills first-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Points per drive favors Buffalo 3.1500 to 2.2192; Bills also project more possessions at 31.202 versus 29.590 seconds per play.
    • REST is adverse but limited: Raiders have 7 days, Bills 6; the one-day gap is the principal counterweight.
    • Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins are active QB1s; the only game-day QB injury row is Raiders backup Aidan O'Connell Out via espn_live.
    • The live score is Raiders 7, Bills 3 with 0:42 left in Q1; Buffalo must still lead at halftime, and the early deficit is real information.
  29. Las Vegas Raiders wins by over 2.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Las Vegas has 7 days versus Buffalo's 6, a one-day freshness edge in the scripted half.
    • to-date is mixed: Buffalo offense leads 0.1853 to 0.0114, but Las Vegas defense is better at -0.0304 versus Buffalo's 0.1013.
    • Pinnacle full-game Buffalo -4.5 (-110) scaled by 24.5/53.5 first-half-to-game scoring: 2.06 points, with the rest edge narrowing Buffalo's first-half margin toward 2.
    • Buffalo's points-per-drive advantage is substantial: 3.1500 versus Las Vegas's 2.2192.
  30. First-half total over 24.5 points
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Las Vegas has 7 days to Buffalo's 6; the one-day Raiders freshness edge is the main counterweight, not ignored.
    • EPA/efficiency: Buffalo offense is +0.1853 EPA/play versus Las Vegas +0.0114; success is .5197 versus .4614.
    • calibrating the PPD-plus-pace projection to the direct 26.5 Pinnacle first-half rung produces about 28.0 expected points and 59% over 24.5.
    • The Raiders' defensive EPA is better (-0.0304 versus Buffalo +0.1013), which can suppress the Bills' efficiency edge.
  31. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    +20400%Won

    Taken at +20400

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Single prices product to 3.0474 decimal; ProphetX top/fill rung is +205 / 3.05, max_stake $100, fill/product ratio 1.0008.
    • Likeliest loss path: Buffalo wins, but the Chargers stay within 7.5 points against Kansas City.
  32. Josh Allen under 242.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Bills played Monday, Oct. 12 and now travel three time zones west to Las Vegas on five days' rest.
    • Travel-friction catalyst clears the brief; Allegiant's indoor 3 mph forecast means this is a single-catalyst spot.
    • The held Allen under moved from 232.5 to 242.5; adding the same side at the new number is permitted.
    • Buffalo ranks 4-1 with 32.8 points per game and +0.178 offensive EPA/play over its recent window.
  33. Josh Allen under 232.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Josh Allen is an active, live-priced participant for this matchup.
    • Buffalo has 5 days after Monday's game before traveling three time zones west to Las Vegas.
    • DraftKings lists Allen under 232.5 passing yards at -111 at 9:00am PT.
    • Allen's rushing ability can sustain Buffalo drives even if passing efficiency declines.
  34. Khalil Shakir over 38.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snap share stayed high at 72.7% → 76.3% → 68.3%, with 23 → 34 → 27 route snaps.
    • Shakir produced 80 receiving yards in each of his last two games after a six-yard Week 3.
    • Las Vegas allowed positive defensive EPA in two of its last three games, including +0.3754 last week.
    • His latest game had only three targets, so target volatility remains substantial.
  35. Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing touchdowns
    +68%Won

    Taken at −148 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 over hit rate is 80% (4/5); L10 is 60% (6/10); 2026 season is 80% (4/5).
    • Last-10 average is 1.9 passing touchdowns, 26.7% above the 1.5 line; the 2026 average is 2.4.
    • Cousins has started all five games with a 97.1% season snap share; Las Vegas has a 57.3% season pass rate.
    • The H2H sample is one game, and Cousins threw only one touchdown in it.
  36. James Cook under 8.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 under hit rate is 80% (4/5); L10 is 60% (6/10); 2026 season is 80% (4/5).
    • Current-season average is 6.2 receiving yards, 27.1% below the 8.5-yard line.
    • Cook owns a workhorse role with 67.4% season snap share and 78 route snaps; Buffalo's first-five pass rate is only 50.7%.
    • The H2H sample is one game, and Cook gained 36 receiving yards against Las Vegas.
  37. Game total under 52
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence: backing Under 52, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX price is +126.
    • The book-level measure is tied 3, 3, so it does not corroborate the read; this is only a two-measure signal.

Questions

Who won Bills vs. Raiders?

The Bills won 33–30 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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