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Jets vs. PatriotsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGillette Stadium
Jets2–3
19–26Final
Patriots3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
NYJ3010619
NE7100926

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Jets spread +7.5 53¢

Why Drift likes it: Pinnacle exact-rung reference devigs to 52.6% Jets cover currently from +106 / -117; ProphetX price implies 53.05¢.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-30 on this game · −44% return

  1. New York Jets to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSunday Ledger, Inactives Parity
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
      • Most likely loss: New England converts its 7-3 first-quarter lead into a controlled home win.
      Inactives Parity
      • Carlton Davis III, New England's top corner, was officially inactive at 8:50 AM PDT; Karon Prunty and Channing Canada were also out.
      • The Polymarket US quote was unchanged after the 8:50 AM inactive confirmation; its only recorded change was 6:28 AM PDT.
      • New York also loses EDGE Joseph Ossai, RB Breece Hall, and WR Adonai Mitchell; the net inactive impact is not cleanly one-sided.
    • New England Patriots −7.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +100 on DraftKings

      2 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, Number Earned
      Why 2 models like it
      NFL Trench Mismatch
      • NE primary pass-trench score +0.41 versus NYJ -0.48: +0.89 edge, above the +0.25 trigger.
      • Full trench scores: NE +0.35, NYJ -0.42: +0.77 edge, above the 0.50 trigger.
      • The Jets still have the better 2026 team run-block grade, 65.3 versus New England's 58.5; the run-trench component favors New York.
      Number Earned
      • Model fair probability: 53.5% cover, equivalent to roughly -115; DraftKings offers +100.
      • Recent 10-game EPA: Patriots offense -0.084 and defense -0.072, versus Jets offense -0.161 and defense -0.025.
      • A.J. Brown remains questionable and is expected to have a limited workload if active.
    • Game total under 43.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Quantitative +EV Analyst
      Why 2 models like it
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Five 2026 games: Patriots offense -0.0100 EPA/play, Jets -0.1009; combined offensive EPA is -0.1109.
      • Defensive EPA allowed is -0.0481 New England and -0.0851 New York; both profiles support a lower-scoring script.
      • Most likely loss: New England creates short fields, reaches 30 points, and Jets garbage-time scoring pushes the game over.
      Quantitative +EV Analyst
      • Model projects 39.3 points from each offense's scoring rate versus opponent defensive allowance.
      • Last five games average 40.6 combined points, 2.9 below today's 43.5 market.
      • New England scored 45 last week and averages 22.0 points through five games.
    • Game total under 42.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −104 on FanDuel

      2 modelsBrewing NFL Totals 2.0, NFL HunterV2
      Why 2 models like it
      Brewing NFL Totals 2.0
      • Matchup model centers around 40, 41 points, 1.5, 2.5 below the 42.5 market.
      • Jets: -0.1009 offensive EPA/play, 46.5% success, 10.6% explosive rate through Week 5.
      • A.J. Brown, Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and multiple linemen remain game-day questionable.
      NFL HunterV2
      • Recent five-game scoring averages combine for 40.6 points: Jets 18.6, Patriots 22.0.
      • To-date points per drive are modest at 1.863 for New England and 1.821 for New York.
      • New England scored 45 last week and has the stronger recent explosive-play rate, creating a right-tail over scenario.
    • Game total under 44.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −113 on DraftKings

      2 modelsShawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      Shawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter
      • 7-3 with 4:10 left in Q1; the live number requires 35 more points to beat 44.5.
      • NYJ has produced -0.13 EPA/play and NE -1.27 EPA/play in the live sample; both offenses are below expectation.
      • Romeo Doubs already created a 42-yard touchdown, showing explosive-play upside that can break an under quickly.
      Long Way Home
      • 60% own probability: the sharp main total is 42.5, while ProphetX offers 44.5, creating two points of scoring cushion.
      • DraftKings/FanDuel/Pinnacle cluster at 42.5, 43.5; ProphetX has not compressed its 44.5 under enough.
      • The most likely loss is an early defensive/special-teams score or explosive Patriots lead forcing a high-tempo Jets chase.
    • New York Jets exact margin 15+Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 2¢ on Polymarket US

      Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • exact-margin Jets-win mids total 17.5c versus the venue's moneyline Jets price near 24.4c, a 6.9-point allocation gap.
      • Using a smooth distribution centered on the sharp Patriots -7.5 anchor, then reweighting with the fresh histogram, my Jets-15+ probability is about 5.3%.
      • This is VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, not the stronger key-number PROJECTION fire; 15+ contains no 3/4/6/7/10/14 key number.
    Show all 40 picks
    1. Under total 42.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • p_model 54.0% and EV_model +8.0%; both offenses are below-zero EPA, while both defenses allow negative EPA/play.
      • Most likely loss: New England's efficient fourth-down aggression and a short-field turnover sequence push the game above 42.5.
    2. New England Patriots spread −14.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

      Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • FULL tier: both QBs are current depth-chart/usage starters, both teams have five games, and 2,839-game key-number mass was computed this wake.
      • Model margin support: ESPN FPI projects New England by 8.293 versus the Pinnacle anchor of 7.5; NE also leads NYJ in EPA, success, explosiveness, points per drive, and home record.
      • Most likely loss: New York stays within two scores; a 14.5-point rung has substantial tail variance despite the ladder price.
    3. New York Jets spread 6.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    4. First-half total over 20.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rest is 7 days for both teams: no mismatch, so this is a script/possession projection rather than a rest play.
      • to-date favors New England: offense -0.0100 vs New York -0.1009; defense -0.0481 vs -0.0851; success rate .4845 vs .4652.
      • combined PPD is 3.6848; 42.5 full-game total implies 11.53 drives, and a pace-weighted 5.82 first-half drives with a 4% scripted lift yields 22.34 points.
      • The 4% scripted lift and 5.82-drive first-half estimate are model assumptions; no rest edge supports them.
    5. New York Jets spread +7.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle exact-rung reference devigs to 52.6% Jets cover currently from +106 / -117; ProphetX price implies 53.05¢.
      • Power rating: 55.4% Jets cover, using five-game EPA/play, success, explosive rate, pace, points/drive, scoring margin and equal seven-day rest.
      • Movement favors this side: exact-rung Pinnacle devigged Jets cover moved from 51.9% open to 52.6% current, +0.7 points toward Jets.
      • New England leads current-season offense EPA/play by 0.091 and explosive rate by 2.26 points.
    6. Rhamondre Stevenson first touchdownLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +475 on DraftKings

      TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model probability 19%; fair price about +426 versus DraftKings +475.
      • New England projects for the stronger early scoring environment: 1.86 points per drive versus 1.82 for the Jets.
      • Stevenson is the Patriots' workhorse: 63.5% snap share and 13+ carries in each of the last two games.
      • First-touch variance is extreme; one short field goal or defensive score can erase the angle.
    7. New York Jets first-half winnerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • RECOMMENDED; edge class INTERNAL COHERENCE; reference VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
      • Jets lead 3-0 with 4:22 left in Q1; updating the pregame Patriots edge leaves Jets first-half win probability near 36%.
      • The live first-half spread prices Jets +4.5 at 49¢, making a 20¢ Jets-win contract look too low relative to the same-half margin distribution.
      • No first-half-specific histogram; full-game key-number mass is only a directional prior.
    8. Game first-half total under 22.5
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model mean is approximately 20.3 first-half points from five-game points-per-drive: NE 1.863, NYJ 1.821, with 30.46/31.63 seconds per play.
      • Internal coherence: sharp full-game total 42.5 plus the board's 2H 22.5 anchors 1H near 20.0; the 1H 22.5 number is the outlier.
      • First-half variance scales with the square root of expected drives, not a linear half of full-game variance; that supports a wider but lower-centered under distribution.
      • Pace-to-drive conversion is approximate; explosive plays, turnovers, short fields, or defensive scores can clear 23 points quickly.
    9. Under 20.5 first-half total
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • model estimates roughly 18.8 first-half points from about 10.5 combined drives and 2026 points-per-drive inputs; board line is 20.5.
      • NE and NYJ pace inputs are 30.46 and 31.63 seconds per play; five-game PPD averages are 1.86 and 1.82, with both defenses allowing negative EPA per play.
      • Square-root scaling matters: first-half standard deviation scales with the square root of drives, not a linear half of full-game variance; the lower center still leaves a playable under.
      • A single early touchdown, turnover, or short field can clear 20.5; square-root scaling preserves meaningful half-game tails.
    10. Romeo Doubs over 31.5 receiving yards
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • NGS REG, 1 current-season row: 14.68 intended air yards and 2.82-yard separation; 2025 REG separation averaged 2.39 across 9 rows.
      • PFF REGPO, 5 games: 31.8% deep and 36.4% medium targets, a 68.2% deep-plus-medium mix; NGS air-yards share is 35.4%.
      • PFF REGPO route rate is 92.3% with 1.52 YPRR; New England's OL has a 96.9 PBE grade and only 3 sacks allowed against New York's pass rush.
      • Partial coverage: only 1 current NGS row, and Romeo changed teams; the 2025 baseline is from Green Bay, not New England.
    11. Garrett Wilson over 70.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 11, 4, 13 targets produced 104, 27, 107 yards; the line is below a usage-based 83-yard projection.
      • New England allowed +0.0227 EPA/play across its last three games; starting CB Carlton Davis III is out.
      • FanDuel posts 70.5 yards at -113, the best usable price/number combination found.
      • Wilson had only 27 yards in Week 4, showing substantial single-game variance.
    12. Over 44 total
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    13. New England Patriots spread −8
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX posts New England -315 moneyline but New England -8 at +114.
      • matchup EPA edge favors New England by 0.1279/play: Patriots offense -0.0100 vs Jets defense -0.0851; Jets offense -0.1009 vs Patriots defense -0.0481.
      • Five-game current-form sample; 17 feature rows each satisfy the coverage gate, with seven rest days and no neutral adjustment.
      • Most likely loss: New England wins by 1-7 points; the plus-money spread still loses despite the moneyline favorite.
    14. Garrett Wilson under 70.5 receiving yards
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2025 baseline: 6.69 yards per target × 35 targets over the last four games implies 58.6 yards.
      • Snap share is elite and stable: 93%, 100%, 93% over the last three games (95.6% average).
      • FanDuel's live 70.5-yard line is 16.9% above the 58.6-yard projection; under is -113.
      • Wilson is over 70 yards in two of his last four games, including 104 and 107.
    15. New England Patriots first-half team total under 14.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 7 points are already scored, but the 1H threshold allows only 7 more by halftime.
      • Season-to-date Patriots offense is -0.010 EPA/play against Jets defense at -0.085 EPA/play allowed.
      • New England averages 1.86 points per drive; matchup pace is ordinary, not an obvious possession-over environment.
      • New England already scored a touchdown in Q1; one more touchdown makes this under fragile.
    16. New England Patriots under 23.5 team total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model band is 19, 21 Patriots points versus the 23.5-point Polymarket US rung.
      • New England offense is -0.010 EPA/play to date; New York defense is -0.0851 EPA/play allowed in this matchup.
      • Patriots average 1.735 points per drive and 20.0 points per game; Jets defense has allowed -0.1124 EPA/play this season.
      • New England has converted 10 of 18 tracked red-zone chances; touchdown efficiency can beat a low-20s projection.
    17. Total points under 44.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Key-number rung pair: under 44 to under 44.5 crosses exact 44; 44-point finishes occurred 108 times in 2,839 regular/postseason games, versus 99 at 41 and 91 at 47.
      • Efficiency read is low-scoring: Jets offense is -0.1009 EPA/play and Patriots defense -0.0481; Patriots offense is -0.0100 and Jets defense -0.0851.
      • Pinnacle and DraftKings reference 43.5, below ProphetX's 44.5 rung, corroborating the under projection.
      • The ticket loses at 45 or more points; one defensive touchdown or short-field turnover can break a low-total projection.
    18. Jets–Patriots game total under 43.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −108 on DraftKings

      Pigskin PeteDown 21% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last six combined scoring averages 37.3 points: Jets 16.8, Patriots 20.5.
      • Last-six offensive EPA/play is negative for both teams: Jets -0.138, Patriots -0.0366.
      • Slow pace signals: 30.58 and 29.90 seconds per offensive play, with modest pass rates of 55.9% and 53.7%.
      • Patriots defensive back injuries and A.J. Brown's questionable status can create explosive-play variance.
    19. Hunter Henry over 25.5 receiving yards
      +86%Won

      Taken at −116 on DraftKings

      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 35.4 receiving yards per game in both the five-game season and L5 sample versus a 25.5 line (+38.8%).
      • Henry cleared 25.5 yards in 4 of 5 games: 26, 40, 5, 62, 44.
      • Stable TE1 role: 72.1% offensive snap share, 134 routes and 19 targets through five games.
      • A.J. Brown's return adds meaningful target competition after missing most of the season.
    20. New England Patriots first team touchdown
      +56%Won

      Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION / venue self-reference: New England produced 14 red-zone trips and 8 touchdowns (57.1%) through five games.
      • Jets defense allowed 9 touchdowns on 18 opponent red-zone trips (50.0%); New England's offense has the stronger conversion profile.
      • Rhamondre Stevenson is the Patriots' RB1/workhorse at a 63.5% snap share; Henderson is game-day questionable, concentrating goal-line equity.
      • Opening-kick winner and scripted first-drive tendency are unconfirmed; first touchdown is highly path-dependent.
    21. Braelon Allen over 0.5 touchdowns
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Breece Hall is ESPN-listed Out; the depth chart moves Allen from RB2 behind Hall into the lead active backfield role.
      • Allen already owns a 56.3% snap share, 33.9% run-snap rate, 44.0% route participation, and the committee-lead label.
      • Jets have produced 13 red-zone attempts through five games; Patriots opponents have converted 9 of 15 red-zone trips.
      • Allen's season-to-date role is still labeled committee lead, not workhorse; Isaiah Davis and other backs can absorb goal-line work.
    22. Game total under 43.0
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on BetMGM

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both offenses are negative in recent EPA/play: Jets -0.1614 and Patriots -0.0843 over the last 10.
      • Recent game scoring environments average 37.8 points for Jets games and 40.8 for Patriots games.
      • Breece Hall is officially out, removing a primary Jets offensive contributor; both starting quarterbacks are priced as active.
      • A.J. Brown, Will Campbell and TreVeyon Henderson carry current/questionable designations, creating uncertain Patriots offensive availability.
    23. Garrett Wilson under 6.5 receptions
      +71%Won

      Taken at −140 on FanDuel

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under hit in L5 3/5 (60%), L10 7/10 (70%), and the 2026 season 3/5 (60%).
      • Wilson stayed under 6.5 receptions in all five sampled meetings versus New England.
      • L10 reception average is 5.6, 13.8% below the 6.5 line; his 94.1% route rate keeps the role stable.
      • The five-game H2H sample spans prior quarterbacks and is not a clean current-team comparison.
    24. Hunter Henry over 26.5 receiving yards
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5 4/5 (80%), L10 7/10 (70%), and 2026 season 4/5 (80%) cleared 26.5.
      • Last four meetings versus the Jets: 3/4 over, averaging 36.5 receiving yards.
      • L5 average is 35.4 yards, a 33.6% projection edge over the 26.5 market line.
      • The Jets carry a 76.5 coverage grade and can compress tight-end windows.
    25. Game total under 39.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only, ProphetX's own ladder, not an independent check.
      • Book_levels are under 3 and over 3; backing under 39.5, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
    26. New York Jets spread +5.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only, ProphetX's own ladder, not an independent check.
      • Book_levels are Jets 3 and Patriots 3; backing New York Jets +5.5, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
    27. Rhamondre Stevenson under 14.0 rushing attempts
      0%Push

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 11.4 carries per game across five 2026 starts is 18.6% below the 14.0 line.
      • Under in 4 of his 5 games; the only over was an 18-carry opener.
      • Stevenson is the declared RB1 and has a 63.5% offensive snap share.
      • New England is a heavy favorite, and a positive game script can create extra rushing attempts.
    28. New England Patriots no first-half win by over 4.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • EPA gaps favor NE, +0.0909 offense and +0.0370 defensive EPA versus the Jets.
      • live Pinnacle first-half NE -4.0 at -106; the traded rung requires clearing 4.5.
      • moving the -4.0 sharp rung to -4.5 trims roughly 2, 3 win points; NO projects about 53%.
      • Equal 7-day rest: the strongest first-half lever supplies no mismatch.
    29. New England Patriots first-half winner
      +56%Won

      Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE. New England leads EPA-to-date on offense by 0.0909 and success rate by 0.0193.
      • Rest is even at 7 days each; the edge is home field plus the Patriots’ stronger efficiency profile, not freshness.
      • Pinnacle first-half moneyline is New England -257 / New York +219; direction and price support New England.
      • No rest mismatch: both teams have 7 days, removing the brief’s strongest signal.
    30. Game total under 41
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 offense EPA/play is -0.0100 for New England and -0.1009 for New York, both below zero.
      • both defenses are suppressing EPA allowed: New England -0.0481 and New York -0.0851.
      • Likeliest loss path: Drake Maye repeats New England's 42-point Week 5 output and the Patriots create efficient early leads.
    31. Braelon Allen over 16.5 rushing attempts
      +81%Won

      Taken at −123 on DraftKings

      Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Snap share rose 51.5% → 93.8% → 85.7% over the last three games.
      • New England allowed positive defensive EPA in two of its last three games; matchup is not a clear run stop.
      • DraftKings still posts 16.5 attempts at -123 despite the lead-back role change.
      • The 4-attempt Week 3 game shows the role can change quickly.
    32. Geno Smith under 215.5 passing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Under hit in L5 3/5 (60%), L10 7/10 (70%), and the 2026 season 3/5 (60%).
      • Geno’s L10 average is 202.7 passing yards, 5.9% below the 215.5 line; his last two were 182 and 119.
      • The Jets average -0.161 offensive EPA per play; New England’s pass-rush grade is 81.0 with 80 pressures.
      • His L5 average is 216.8 yards, essentially the posted number, so the edge depends on the longer window.
    33. Hunter Henry over 27.5 receiving yards
      +73%Won

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 35.4 receiving yards per game over five 2026 games is 28.7% above the 27.5 line.
      • Henry has cleared 27.5 yards in 3 of 5 games, with 40+ yards in two of the last three.
      • Both teams' current pace inputs are around 30, 32 seconds per play, supporting opportunity in a 42.5-point market.
      • The Jets' -0.0851 defensive EPA per play is strong overall and works against this over.
    34. New England Patriots spread −7
      0%Push

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • New England leads in current-season offensive EPA/play (-0.0100 vs New York's -0.1009), defensive EPA allowed (-0.0481 vs -0.0851), success rate (.4845 vs .4652), and explosive rate (.1286 vs .1059).
      • Official Oct. 16 injury reporting lists Jets RB Breece Hall OUT, weakening an offense already behind New England in efficiency and explosiveness.
      • Most likely loss: New England wins by 1-6, or a late Jets touchdown turns a Patriots lead into a non-cover.

    Questions

    Who won Jets vs. Patriots?

    The Patriots won 26–19 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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