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Panthers vs. EaglesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLincoln Financial Field
Panthers2–2
25–14Final
Eagles2–3
Score by period
Team1234T
CAR3731325
PHI070714

Top model pick, graded

Won

Carolina Panthers spread −3.5 46¢

Why Sunday Ledger likes it: At the -3.5 rung, p_anchor is 47.0%; p_model is 52.0% after weighing the confirmed McKee-versus-Young matchup, current efficiency, and personnel.

Sunday LedgerUp 21% return this season · 100 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 33-11 on this game · +57% return

  1. Carolina Panthers to win5 models agree
    +62%Won

    Taken at −162 on DraftKings

    5 modelsTHE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM, ProphetX Pairs +3
    Why 5 models like it
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • Carolina leads pre-kickoff offensive EPA/play 0.0602 to Philadelphia -0.1478 and points/drive 2.59 to 1.77.
    • Panthers hold advantages in success rate (45.8% to 40.7%) and explosive-play rate (12.9% to 10.4%).
    • Philadelphia's defense has the better pregame defensive EPA profile (-0.0249 allowed/play versus Carolina +0.0232).
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Philadelphia's official preview confirms Tanner McKee starts with Jalen Hurts out; current ESPN-live injury data also lists Joe Milton III out.
    • Carolina retains Bryce Young, confirmed by the official Panthers preview; Young was full participation in the latest official report.
    • Philadelphia's defense is still stronger in the current model: -0.0249 defensive EPA/play versus Carolina's +0.0232.
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • Opponent-adjusted pregame features favor Carolina: +0.0602 versus Philadelphia -0.1478 offensive EPA/play; success rate .458 versus .407.
    • Carolina leads explosive-play rate .1293-.1040 and points per drive 2.590-1.772, with a 14-day-to-7-day rest edge.
    • Philadelphia still owns the defensive efficiency edge: -0.0249 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Carolina's +0.0232.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Carolina leads Philadelphia by 0.208 EPA/play in current-season offense and by 0.051 success rate.
    • Carolina averages 2.549 points/drive versus Philadelphia's 1.772; Panthers also have a 14-to-7 rest-day edge.
    • McKee has essentially no NFL sample, so the backup adjustment is model-uncertain despite confirmed starter status.
  2. Carolina Panthers spread −34 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Power model 55.5% Panthers cover: current-season offense leads Philadelphia by 0.208 EPA/play and 5.1 success-rate points.
    • Carolina averages +3.0 margin versus Philadelphia -4.0; Panthers lead explosive rate 12.9%-10.4% and points/drive 2.59-1.77.
    • Most likely loss: Philadelphia's defense and home field contain Carolina while McKee protects the ball.
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • EPA/play: Carolina +0.0352 versus Philadelphia -0.1610 over the recent 10-game window.
    • Success rate favors Carolina .4588 to .4066; PFF overall grades favor Carolina 79.2 to 71.6.
    • Philadelphia is at home and its defense remains slightly better by recent EPA allowed: +0.0144 versus Carolina +0.0311.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Four-game Carolina and five-game Philadelphia coverage: Carolina offense +0.0602 EPA/play versus Philadelphia defense -0.0249 allowed; Philadelphia offense -0.1478 versus Carolina defense +0.0232.
    • The resulting +0.2561 EPA/play matchup differential favors Carolina, before its 14 rest days versus Philadelphia's 7 and Philadelphia's non-neutral home setting.
    • Most likely loss: Tanner McKee materially outperforms Philadelphia's -0.1478 EPA/play input and the Eagles win by four or more.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Carolina has a +0.2080 offensive EPA/play advantage over Philadelphia (0.0602 vs -0.1478) through four/five games.
    • Official Eagles reporting confirms Tanner McKee starts with Jalen Hurts out; ProphetX still offers the Panthers at -3 as of 7:27 AM PDT.
    • Likeliest loss path: Philadelphia's defense has the better EPA allowed mark (-0.0249 vs Carolina's +0.0232) and creates short fields for McKee.
  3. Philadelphia Eagles to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSunday Ledger, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Ledger
    • Philadelphia's defense has -0.0249 EPA allowed/play versus Carolina's +0.0232, with home field providing the remaining lean.
    • Most likely loss: Tanner McKee's replacement-level volatility overwhelms the home-defense edge; Jalen Hurts is on the game-day injury feed as Injured Reserve.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Eagles 3 versus Panthers 3; two of three measures agree, and the thin side clears the several-hundred-dollar raw-stake check.
    • Directional check: backing Philadelphia Eagles, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 levels each, so this is not a three-measure confirmation.
  4. Carolina Panthers first-half winnerFavorite2 models agree
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
    Why 2 models like it
    Locker Room
    • Tier RECOMMENDED; reference VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; edge class PROJECTION.
    • Carolina's to-date offense is +0.060 EPA/play and 2.590 points/drive versus Philadelphia at -0.148 and 1.772.
    • A Philadelphia touchdown before halftime can reverse the current three-point lead quickly.
    Split Decision
    • PROJECTION + TIMING. Carolina has 14 rest days versus Philadelphia's 7, a full-week freshness edge in the scripted half.
    • EPA gap: Carolina offense +0.0602 versus Philadelphia -0.1478 (+0.2080); success rate favors Carolina .4582 to .4068, and PPD favors Carolina 2.5902 to 1.7724.
    • Philadelphia's home field and -0.0249 defensive EPA allowed can suppress Carolina's offensive advantage despite the rest edge.
  5. Tetairoa McMillan over 64.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    2 modelsTarget Quality Yards, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Target Quality Yards
    • NGS REG, 4 current rows: 12.14 intended air yards and 2.74-yard separation; separation remains intact.
    • PFF REGPO depth mix: 6 deep plus 14 medium targets, 57.1%, versus 55.8% in his 2025 same-team role.
    • PFF summary lacks avg_depth_of_target; partial coverage uses NGS aDOT plus the 2025 same-team PFF baseline, not full-tier coverage.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • McMillan averages 96.25 receiving yards across four games, 49.2% above the 64.5 line.
    • He exceeded this number in three of four games: 75, 101, 17, and 192 yards.
    • Philadelphia's home defense rates -0.0249 EPA per play to date, a potentially difficult matchup.
  6. Carolina Panthers spread −3.5High conviction
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At the -3.5 rung, p_anchor is 47.0%; p_model is 52.0% after weighing the confirmed McKee-versus-Young matchup, current efficiency, and personnel.
    • Most likely loss: Philadelphia stays within three points or wins outright, so Carolina -3.5 fails.
Show all 34 picks
  1. Carolina Panthers exact margin 7-14Long shot
    +525%Won

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle anchors Carolina -3 (-105) versus Philadelphia +3 (-105), aligning this Carolina-side bucket.
    • The bucket also includes non-key margins 8, 9 and 11-13, so the key-number uplift is not uniform.
  2. Bryce Young over 34.0 pass attemptsHigh conviction
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 40.5 attempts per game across four 2026 starts, 19.1% above the 34.0 line.
    • Young cleared this line in all four starts: 37, 36, 48, and 41 attempts.
    • Live depth chart lists Young as Carolina's QB1; official preview describes him playing Sunday.
    • A Carolina lead could shift second-half play-calling toward Chuba Hubbard and reduce attempts.
  3. Philadelphia Eagles spread +3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle wake line: Carolina -3.0 -105 / Philadelphia +3.0 -105 at 7:24:30 AM PDT; devigged main spread probability is 50.0% per side.
    • Philadelphia's current offense is -0.1478 EPA/play versus Carolina's +0.0602, so the underdog may struggle to create a four-point win.
  4. Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles 1Q total over 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; PROJECTION, live Q1 is already 3-0 with 6:52 remaining; one more field goal clears 4.5.
    • Quarter markets average only roughly 5-6 possessions, so I require a wider gap; this 17-point separation clears that bar.
    • A stalled Philadelphia drive or red-zone failure leaves the quarter at 3 points.
  5. Philadelphia Eagles +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    NFL Luck RegressionUp 48% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Luck Score: Panthers 0.609 vs Eagles 0.019; 0.590 gap clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary luck gap: 0.255, above the 0.20 trigger; Panthers' turnover and fumble components are more favorable.
    • Panthers defensive/ST TD rate: 0.25 per game versus Eagles 0.00, adding a strong non-offensive-score regression signal.
    • Luck scores use only four Panthers games and five Eagles games; early-season z-scores are noisy.
  6. Game first-half total under 19.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RECOMMENDED; INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: live full-game total is 39, while the two half anchors are 19.5 and 20.5; the late-scoring bump makes the first-half expectation the weaker half.
    • Fitted first-half mean is 18.3 points: Eagles home offense is -0.1478 EPA/play, Panthers away offense +0.0602, and home/away points per drive are 1.77 and 2.02.
    • Blended pace is 28.3 seconds/play, including Philadelphia's slow 30.406; fewer expected first-half drives suppress the scoring distribution.
    • The 2026 split sample is only 2 home/away games per relevant team, so 18.3 is model-sensitive.
  7. Carolina Panthers first-half spread −1.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
    • Panthers +0.060 offensive EPA/play versus Eagles -0.148; opponent defensive EPA inputs also favor Carolina.
    • Pace implies roughly 9, 11 first-half drives; margin SD scales with square root of drives, not linear half-game variance.
    • 2026 samples are thin: four Panthers games and five Eagles games; EPA and 2.59 versus 1.77 points/drive can regress.
  8. Tetairoa McMillan over 10.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL 1st Quarter Player PropsUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Direct 1Q receiving-yards market: over 10.5 at -113 on DraftKings; both sides posted (-115 under).
    • Model 66.0% vs 49.8% devigged market probability: +16.2 percentage points.
    • McMillan cleared 10.5 in 9 of 13 first-quarter samples in 2025 and 3 of 4 in 2026 (12 of 17 combined).
    • The current-season sample is only four games, including one first-quarter zero; a cold opening drive loses this quickly.
  9. Bryce Young over 234.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 302-yard average across Young's last three starts: 287, 290, and 329; he cleared 234.5 in all three.
    • Young has a 96.2% offensive snap share through four games and is active after full participation in practice.
    • Carolina's recent pass-play rate is 64.0%, with 41.7 attempts per Young start across the latest three games.
    • Carolina's implied total is only about 18 points, which can limit total drives and scoring efficiency.
  10. Under 38.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Eagles offense is -0.1478 EPA/play with 1.772 points/drive and a slow 30.406 seconds/play; Saquon Barkley and Lane Johnson are game-day Out.
    • Philadelphia's QB1 is Tanner McKee after Jalen Hurts went to IR; any unpriced improvement or explosive passing invalidates the -1.0-point ledger.
  11. Carolina Panthers spread −2.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  12. Dontayvion Wicks over 30.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on BetMGM

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected 176 receiving yards from 19 targets at Wicks's 2026 9.29 yards/target baseline; actual last three: 113, a 36% shortfall.
    • Wicks averaged 87.9% offensive snap share and 34.3 routes over his last three games, with targets of 8, 5, and 6.
    • Tanner McKee replaces Jalen Hurts, creating quarterback-efficiency uncertainty despite Wicks's stable role.
  13. Philadelphia Eagles under 17.5 team points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection / venue self-reference: Philadelphia's -0.1478 offensive EPA/play and 1.596 points per drive meet a Carolina defense allowing +0.0232 EPA/play.
    • Jalen Hurts is officially out; Tanner McKee starts, while Saquon Barkley and Will Shipley are also out, lowering the pre-injury offensive baseline.
    • Internal coherence fire: the game board is 39 total with Philadelphia -3, implying roughly PHI 21/CAR 18, but team-total probabilities center around CAR 19, 20 and PHI 17, 18.
    • The Eagles' matchup is not completely hopeless: Carolina's +0.0232 defensive EPA allowed is only mildly unfavorable, and Philadelphia is at home.
  14. Total points under 41
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 38.5-to-41 ladder gap crosses historical totals 39, 40 and 41, which occurred 67, 104 and 99 times; the mass is not flat.
    • Pregame form has Philadelphia at -0.1478 offensive EPA/play and 1.772 points/drive versus Carolina at 0.0602 and 2.363.
    • Philadelphia's latest QB1 chart is Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts on IR; Carolina QB1 Bryce Young is full-participation and not designated out or doubtful.
    • Carolina's stronger offense and 14 days of rest can create a fast start or short-field points.
  15. Carolina Panthers −3.0
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 net EPA differential favors Carolina by 0.1795 EPA/play, approximately 17.95 points per 100 plays.
    • Carolina has a 14-day rest edge versus Philadelphia's 7 days; Philadelphia lists Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley out.
    • BetMGM offers -3.0 at -110; the spread has remained 3 while moneyline movement has generally shortened Carolina.
    • Carolina's defense allowed 0.0311 EPA/play over the recent window versus Philadelphia's 0.0144.
  16. Carolina Panthers winning margin 7 to 14Long shot
    +400%Won

    Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-five EPA/play favors Carolina by 0.176 on offense: +0.0278 vs Philadelphia -0.1478.
    • informed margin center is approximately Carolina by 6.5 to 7, versus the current Panthers -3 spread.
    • Philadelphia's home field and -0.0249 recent defensive EPA allowed can keep the result in the Eagles 1-to-6 band.
  17. Carolina Panthers −4.5
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on BetMGM

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live score is Carolina 3-0 with 6:02 left in Q1; game status is confirmed in the NFL warehouse.
    • Philadelphia has -0.790 EPA/play, 14.3% success, and zero explosives through 7 plays.
    • Tanner McKee is 4-for-8 for 19 yards with a sack; Bryce Young is 4-for-6 for 48 yards.
    • Only 18 combined plays are charted, so the EPA and success-rate gap can regress quickly.
  18. Tetairoa McMillan over 5.5 receptions
    +115%Won

    Taken at +115 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four direct current-season games: 39 targets, 26 receptions; 9.75 targets/game and 66.7% catch rate.
    • 95.3% route rate and 4-of-4 direct game participation clear the reception-market sample gate.
    • Four-game sample is the minimum qualifying sample, and target totals range from 5 to 16.
  19. Bryce Young over 1.5 passing touchdowns
    +142%Won

    Taken at +142 on FanDuel

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 passing TDs in 4 games (2.25 per game); he cleared 1.5 in 3 of 4.
    • Young has 162 attempts in four games; Carolina's current pass rate is 64.3%.
    • Regressing the 2026 spike toward his 2024-25 baseline still produces a 52% scenario probability.
    • Four-game 2026 sample is small, and his 2024-25 baseline was 38 TDs in 30 games.
  20. Carolina Panthers first team touchdown
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Carolina has +0.060 offensive EPA/play; Philadelphia is -0.148 through Oct. 11.
    • Carolina converted 11 of 17 red-zone trips; Philadelphia converted 9 of 14.
    • Philadelphia has allowed 10 touchdowns on 20 opponent red-zone trips; Carolina allowed 8 on 11.
    • First touchdown depends on opening-kick outcome and scripted drives; coin toss and opening tendencies are unknown.
  21. Chuba Hubbard over 0.5 touchdowns
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US quotes the over at 50c with both sides live and tradable.
    • Hubbard leads Carolina backs with a verified 76.6% snap share and is labeled a workhorse.
    • Carolina generated 17 red-zone attempts and 11 conversions through four games.
    • Goal-line carries are not directly charted; the workhorse label is a proxy, not proof of every short-yardage touch.
  22. Carolina Panthers −3
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on BetMGM

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Carolina's 2026 offense leads Philadelphia by 0.242 EPA/play: +0.0625 versus -0.1793.
    • Carolina leads success rate .4652-.3925 and points per drive 2.593-1.596 through the current-season sample.
    • Jalen Hurts is officially out and Tanner McKee starts; the Eagles' recent offense is -0.161 EPA/play.
    • Carolina's defense has allowed +0.0329 EPA/play versus Philadelphia's -0.0249, so McKee may face less pressure than expected.
  23. Darren Waller over 23.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate 4/5 (80%), L10 7/10 (70%), season 4/4 (100%) over 23.5.
    • PFF route proxy projects 37.0 yards: 1.51 YPRR across 24.5 routes per game, a 57% line edge.
    • Waller owns a 2/3 over H2H record versus Philadelphia at this threshold; current snap share is 46.2%.
    • Philadelphia can bracket Waller after Carolina's wideout usage draws coverage.
  24. Game total over 53.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Carolina averages 2.59 points per drive with .179 PROE; Philadelphia averages 1.77 points per drive through five games.
    • Weather is neutral for the right tail: 56°F, 10-mph gust, and zero precipitation.
    • This far-tail rung is 14.5 points above the roughly 39-point sharp center; tail shape is less trusted than central outcomes.
  25. Tre'von Moehrig under 5.5 tackles + assists
    +67%Won

    Taken at −150 on DraftKings

    NFL Defensive Tackles & Assists Quant ModelDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 current sample: 3, 5, 4, 5 tackles; 4.25 average and under 5.5 in all four.
    • Full-time role: 275 defensive snaps across four games, with 263 off-ball snaps and no missed prior game.
    • Philadelphia averages 59.0 offensive plays through Week 5; the 39.0 game total supports a lower tackle-opportunity environment.
    • The four-game 2026 sample is small; Moehrig averaged 7.25 tackles in his first four games of 2025.
  26. Game total over 38.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dual matchup estimate 40.8 points after accounting for Tanner McKee, Saquon Barkley, and Lane Johnson absences.
    • 167 comparable games across seven seasons went 90-77 over, averaging 1.96 points above the closing total.
    • Tanner McKee is a confirmed starter but has only two career starts; backup-quarterback variance is wide.
  27. Chuba Hubbard over 1.5 touchdownsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: Polymarket US prices 2+ touchdowns at 11¢; no sharp granular reference is posted.
    • Carolina logged 17 red-zone attempts and 11 conversions in five prior games (64.7%).
    • Philadelphia allowed 13 opponent red-zone attempts and 8 conversions (61.5%); Hubbard has 3 carries for 15 yards live.
    • Two touchdowns are required; one score, a field goal, or a passing touchdown loses.
  28. Dontayvion Wicks over 29.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate 4/5 (80%), L10 6/10 (60%), season 5/5 (100%) over 29.5.
    • PFF route proxy projects 52.1 yards: 1.67 YPRR over 31.2 routes per game, 76.6% above the line.
    • H2H versus Philadelphia is 2/3 over at this threshold; current 81.9% snap share and 95.7% route rate are stable.
    • The L10 gate barely clears at 6/10, so the recent signal is not dominant.

Questions

Who won Panthers vs. Eagles?

The Panthers won 25–14 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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