Get app

Bears vs. FalconsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMercedes-Benz Stadium
Bears3-2
31–23Final
Falcons2-3
Score by period
Team1234T
CHI1477331
ATL0701623

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago Bears exact margin 7-14 23¢

Why Exact Change likes it: Live Pinnacle's Bears -3.5 at -136 versus Falcons +3.5 at +116 devigs to about 55.4% Bears, matching the bucket's directional side.

Exact ChangeUp 93% return this season · 93 picksLongshots
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 8-19 on this game · −37% return

  1. Game total under 51.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL HunterV2, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL HunterV2
    • Model mean projects in the mid-40s; own win probability is 59%.
    • Chicago and Atlanta allow -0.11 and -0.05 defensive EPA/play to date, respectively.
    • Chicago scored 59 in one of five games and Atlanta scored 45 in another; upper-tail outcomes are real.
    Number Earned
    • 45.6-point simple matchup baseline from each team’s 2026 points-for/against averages is materially below 51.5.
    • Chicago’s last-five defense allowed -0.11 EPA/play; Atlanta’s defense allowed -0.05, limiting sustained efficiency.
    • Caleb Williams remains questionable with a hamstring issue as of the 9:04 AM game-day report; a healthy return could lift Chicago’s offense.
  2. Game total under 52.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Quantitative +EV Analyst
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are under 3 versus over 3; two measures agree, while level count is neutral.
    • Backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches; hypothesis is being tested against the outcome.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3 versus 3, so this is not a three-measure signal.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • 23.8 Bears points scored and 19.2 allowed; Atlanta scores 23.8 and allows 24.4 this season.
    • Matchup baseline projects roughly 46 points from both teams' scoring and allowance rates.
    • Caleb Williams is still officially questionable despite reports that he is expected to start.
  3. Chicago Bears exact margin 7-14Long shot
    +335%Won

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live Pinnacle's Bears -3.5 at -136 versus Falcons +3.5 at +116 devigs to about 55.4% Bears, matching the bucket's directional side.
    • The class-1 projection using the live -3.5 anchor and the recomputed margin histogram was lower, so this is a self-reference fire rather than a clean outside-model edge.
  4. Brian Robinson Jr. anytime touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +195 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 rushing TDs on 51 carries through five games; touchdown production has outpaced his committee share.
    • Atlanta projects near 26 points from the 51.5 total, creating multiple red-zone opportunities.
    • Penix is active with no official designation, preserving Atlanta's normal offensive environment.
    • Bijan Robinson leads the backfield in snaps and carries, so Brian's weekly workload remains volatile.
  5. Divine Deablo under 6.5 tackles + assists
    +83%Won

    Taken at −121 on DraftKings

    NFL Defensive Tackles & Assists Quant ModelDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 mean is 5.2 tackles; the Negative-binomial projection is 5.4, 1.1 below the 6.5 line.
    • Model probability is approximately 64% for 6 or fewer despite Atlanta's 52.5 game total.
    • Atlanta has no current same-level Questionable/Doubtful starter; the game is indoors with no weather penalty.
    • The sample is highly dispersed: Deablo's 2026 outcomes are 7, 2, 2, 3, 12.
  6. Game first-half total under 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta averages 11.4 drives and Chicago 10.8 through five games; half-drive baseline is about 5.7 and 5.4.
    • Using 2.01 and 2.13 points per drive gives approximately 22.9 first-half points before matchup adjustment.
    • Half variance scales with the square root of drives, not linearly; the fitted half distribution still puts under 24.5 at 56%.
    • Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr. are expected starters, not yet confirmed inactives; either late change is material.
Show all 25 picks
  1. Bijan Robinson over 21.5 first-quarter rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    NFL 1st Quarter Player PropsUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DraftKings 1Q rushing-yards market: over 21.5 at -114; under -113; devigged market probability 50.1%.
    • Model probability 60.0%, a 9.9-point edge: 5.2 first-quarter carries per game and 72% of Atlanta's sampled Q1 rushes.
    • Penix-era sample: Bijan averaged 5.7 Q1 carries across three starts; his 2026 role is a 67.9% snap-share workhorse.
    • The five-game sample includes 73- and 78-yard Q1 rushing spikes; regression lowers confidence in the raw average.
  2. Bijan Robinson over 91.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 141.7 rushing yards per game across his last three; outputs were 194, 145, and 86.
    • Snap share rose from 59.6% to 81.3% last week, with a workhorse role and 19+ carries in two of three.
    • Chicago's 57.6 PFF run-defense grade ranks sixth-worst among 32 teams; it allowed 318 RB rushing yards over the last four.
    • Chicago's overall defense has produced -0.11 defensive EPA per play to date, a strong season-long figure.
  3. Atlanta Falcons +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL Trench MismatchDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Primary pass-trench score: Atlanta +0.76 vs Chicago -0.27; +1.03 edge clears the +0.25 trigger.
    • Pass blocking is close but favors Atlanta: 69.0 grade (0.97 z) vs Chicago 68.3 (0.85 z); pressure counts are 29 vs 44.
    • Atlanta's offense faces Chicago's 52-pressure front, while Chicago faces Atlanta's 121-pressure front.
    • Atlanta has Jake Matthews limited and Za'Darius Smith/Samson Ebukam questionable; Chicago has Braxton Jones and Dayo Odeyingbo on IR plus front-line absences.
  4. Atlanta Falcons team total under 27.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta offense is only +0.03 EPA/play against Chicago defense at -0.11 EPA/play allowed; matchup projection is roughly 21, 23 points.
    • Atlanta’s five regular-season points-per-drive results average about 2.01, while the 27.5 board rung requires a materially better conversion day.
    • Atlanta 27.5 plus Chicago 27.5 implies 55 points, versus the posted 52.5 game total; the team-total ladder looks spread-split rather than independently modeled.
    • Atlanta’s points per drive ranged from 0.25 to 4.09, so touchdown variance is substantial.
  5. Under 51.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    high-confidence main marketsDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My conservative scoring blend is about 48.5 points; Under 51.5 estimates near 59% (fair total about 48.5).
    • Both defenses show negative recent EPA allowed per play: Chicago -0.11, Atlanta -0.05.
    • Recent five-game scoring/allowance blend is roughly 45.6 points; both offenses face a credible defensive matchup.
    • Caleb Williams is confirmed to start after missing three games; his return could lift Chicago's offense, and the size of that effect is uncertain.
  6. Atlanta Falcons spread +3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Key-number density: NFL margins of 3 occurred 419 times versus 133 at 2 in 2,839 regular/postseason games.
    • The Atlanta +2.5 to +3 ladder move costs 4.96¢, modest relative to the historical three-point mass.
    • Atlanta's 2026 PFF team grade is 80.3 versus Chicago's 67.8; defense is 74.8 versus 53.6.
    • Chicago's recent defense leads EPA allowed, -0.11 versus Atlanta's -0.05.
  7. Game total under 53.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14-0 at 15:00 Q2; Atlanta needs 40 points in the final 45 minutes to beat 53.5.
    • Atlanta produced -0.94 EPA/play, 33.3% success, and zero explosives across three offensive plays.
    • Chicago posted +0.52 EPA/play and 57.9% success on 19 plays, but its 40.5-second pace limits possessions.
    • Atlanta's negative efficiency is a three-play sample and could regress sharply.
  8. Bijan Robinson 2+ touchdownsFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta has only 13 red-zone drives through five games, averaging 2.6 opportunities; Chicago has allowed 12.
    • Atlanta converted 9 of 13 red-zone trips; Chicago allowed 7 of 12, limiting expected multi-score chances.
    • Bijan is the verified RB1/workhorse at 67.9% snaps, but Brian Robinson still owns 32.7% and goal-line competition.
    • A workhorse can score twice on limited drives through explosive runs or receiving usage.
  9. Bijan Robinson first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta has converted 9 of 13 red-zone trips (69.2%); Chicago's defense allowed 12 makes on 20 trips (60%).
    • Bijan is Atlanta's declared RB1 and workhorse, with a 67.9% snap share through five games.
    • Brian Robinson is a committee back at 32.7% snaps; usage proxies concentrate goal-line equity toward Bijan.
    • Five-game red-zone samples are thin; the 9/13 and 12/20 rates can regress sharply.
  10. Drake London under 6.5 receptions
    +69%Won

    Taken at −145 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate: under in 3 of 5 games (60%); L10 hit rate is 7 of 10 (70%), and season rate is 3 of 5 (60%).
    • L5 average is 5.4 receptions, 16.9% below the 6.5 line; L10 average is 4.8.
    • London has a stable WR1 role: 87.9% season snap share, position-group rank 1, and 39 routes in the latest game.
    • The two-game H2H sample is too small for strong inference, and Atlanta's 2026 offensive personnel has changed.
  11. Bijan Robinson over 18.5 rushing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate: over in 3 of 5 games (60%).
    • L10 hit rate: over in 6 of 10 games (60%); season rate is also 3 of 5 (60%).
    • L5 average is 20.4 attempts, 10.3% above the 18.5 line; every current-season game produced 16+ carries.
    • Only one prior Chicago meeting: 15 attempts, an inadequate H2H sample and a cap on conviction.
  12. Atlanta Falcons +2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta +2 pushes on an Atlanta loss by exactly 2; +1.5 loses.
    • ProphetX quotes Atlanta +2 at 54.13¢ (-118) versus Atlanta +1.5 at 54.75¢ (-121): the dominant rung is cheaper.
    • The adjacent-rung gap is only three cents and may be exchange rounding rather than durable mispricing.
  13. Atlanta Falcons −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 for Atlanta and 3 for Chicago; the two core measures agree, while levels do not corroborate.
    • The third measure is neutral: equal 3-versus-3 book levels, so this is not a three-measure confirmation.
  14. Rome Odunze over 43.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 54.6 receiving yards per game over five 2026 games, 25.5% above 43.5.
    • Odunze cleared 43.5 yards in three of five games, including 94 yards in Week 4.
    • Atlanta's -0.05 defensive EPA allowed is materially weaker than Chicago's -0.11 mark.
    • Caleb Williams remains officially questionable; a quarterback change could materially reduce Odunze's target quality.
  15. Chicago Bears spread −1
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bears' current defensive EPA/play is -0.11 versus Atlanta's -0.05; lower is better, a 0.06-play gap.
    • Recent form favors Chicago: Bears +4.6 scoring margin per game over the last five versus Atlanta -0.6.
    • Quarter-Kelly from a 54% own win estimate is 2.1%; capped per brief at 0.5% of bankroll, recorded as 0.5 units.
    • Atlanta's offense has the stronger current success rate (.5151 versus Chicago .4652) and has home field.
  16. D'Andre Swift over 2.5 receptions
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-coverage role gate: W3 .694 snap share/20 routes, W4 .355/11, W5 .580/21; three-game averages .543/.17.3.
    • RB1/committee-lead role: season .564 snap share, .375 run-snap rate, .467 route participation; odds board confirms Swift active.
    • Kyle Monangai is officially OUT via ESPN live at 8:49 AM; his four-game role vacated .411 snaps and .275 route participation.
    • No prior Monangai-absence game exists, so route absorption is league-average rather than evidenced.
  17. Luther Burden III over 50.5 receiving yards
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snap share jumped 55.9% → 76.8% from Week 4 to Week 5; routes rose from 29 to 39.
    • He averaged 57.0 receiving yards over the last three games: 61, 63, and 47.
    • Atlanta allowed 195.3 WR receiving yards and 15.8 WR receptions per game over the last month.
    • Burden’s role jump is concentrated in Week 5; a snap-share regression would erase the edge.
  18. Rome Odunze over 41.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snap share rose 84.7% → 89.2% → 98.6% over his last three games.
    • Routes rose 33 → 36 → 49; Odunze averaged 59.3 receiving yards and 7.3 targets.
    • Atlanta allowed 195.3 WR receiving yards and 24.8 WR targets per game over the last month.
    • Caleb Williams is questionable with a hamstring issue despite full practice; a quarterback change damages the projection.
  19. Atlanta Falcons spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The sharp board has Atlanta +1 at Pinnacle -109; ProphetX supplies the valuable +1.5 at nearly the same -110 price.
    • Home field plus the half-point protects a close game, while Chicago’s weak offensive success profile makes a multi-score result less likely.
    • Most likely loss: Chicago’s -0.11 defensive EPA/play forces short fields and the Bears win by two or more.

Questions

Who won Bears vs. Falcons?

The Bears won 31-23 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.