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Cardinals vs. RamsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSoFi Stadium
Cardinals1–4
18–16Final
Rams2–3
Score by period
Team1234T
ARI363618
LAR360716

Top model pick, graded

Won

Arizona Cardinals under 51.5 total 52¢

Why Drift likes it: Model fair under 56.5%: projected total 47.5 from both teams' EPA, success, explosive rate, pace and points/drive.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 24-32 on this game · −5% return

  1. Los Angeles Rams −12.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsCLV Sharp ATS, NFL baby +1
    Why 3 models like it
    CLV Sharp ATS
    • Market consensus is around Rams -13; FanDuel offers -12.5, a 0.5-point gain through key 13.
    • Last-five net EPA gap is +0.2725/play for Los Angeles, with a 5.42-point success-rate advantage.
    • Arizona QB Jacoby Brissett and Rams QB Matthew Stafford lack explicit game-day active labels this far out.
    NFL baby
    • Net EPA/play gap is +0.2725 for Los Angeles: Rams +0.0709 versus Arizona -0.2016 through five games.
    • Conservative EPA translation projects roughly a 15.5-point Rams margin, 3.0 points above the -12.5 spread.
    • Public-split sources disagree: another report shows only 51% of tickets but 68% of money on Los Angeles, weakening the sentiment signal.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • Full EPA strategy scores: Rams +0.531 vs Cardinals -1.073, a +1.604 edge.
    • Primary EPA scores: Rams +0.253 vs Cardinals -0.661, a +0.914 edge; both trigger thresholds clear.
    • Only five completed games inform the 2026 team samples; early-season z-scores can be noisy.
  2. Game total under 51.53 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsBrewing NFL Totals 2.0, Quantitative +EV Analyst +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0
    • Two matchup estimates are 48.5 and 49.0 total points, both below 51.5.
    • Rams defense allows -0.043 EPA/play; Arizona offense is -0.065 EPA/play with a 45.6% success rate.
    • Arizona allows 0.137 EPA/play and Los Angeles has a 12.2% explosive-play rate, creating short-field and chunk-play upside.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • 50.3-point cross-match scoring estimate is 1.2 points below the 51.5 total.
    • Last-five averages are 21.6 Cardinals points and 23.8 Rams points, or 45.4 combined.
    • Arizona’s defense has allowed 162 points in five games, creating blowout and backdoor-over risk.
    Number Earned
    • Model fair total 49.0, 2.5 points below DraftKings' 51.5.
    • Arizona averages -0.065 offensive EPA/play and a 45.6% success rate through five games.
    • Arizona's defense allows 32.4 points per game and +0.137 defensive EPA/play, creating a clear Rams scoring path.
  3. Los Angeles Rams to winFavorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −700 on DraftKings

    2 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Independent win estimate 88.5%; fair price about -770 versus DraftKings -700.
    • Rams lead recent to-date offense EPA/play 0.0279 to -0.0650 and success rate .5099 to .4557.
    • The price edge is thin: 88.5% estimated win chance is only about one point above DraftKings' 87.5% break-even.
    Long Way Home
    • Rams lead the to-date profile in offensive EPA (+0.028 vs Arizona -0.065) and defensive EPA allowed (-0.043 vs Arizona +0.137).
    • Rams' .510 success rate and .122 explosive-play rate contrast with Arizona's .456 and .062; own win estimate is 90%.
    • Most likely loss: turnovers or an outlier Cardinals offensive performance turns the large favorite into an outright upset.
  4. Trey McBride over 7.5 receptions2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +113 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
    • p_raw 68.0%; p_market 45.5% from Pinnacle's same-market board.
    • 0.50 shrinkage: direct five-game sample, 91.1% route rate, 56 targets and 42 receptions.
    • Arizona's quarterback and the Rams' pass rush can reduce catchable target quality.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 56 targets in five games; 10+ targets in every game.
    • Four of five games cleared 7.5 receptions; season average is 8.4.
    • Five-game sample is thin, and the 7-reception game missed by one.
  5. Matthew Stafford over 34.5 passing attempts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPick With Pink (NFL) player props, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    Why 2 models like it
    Pick With Pink (NFL) player props
    • L5 hit rate 60%; L10 70%; 2026 season 60% over 34.5 attempts.
    • Stafford has cleared the line in three straight games with 54, 51, and 55 attempts.
    • A 12.5-point Rams favorite could create a run-heavy second half and suppress late attempts.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 43.2 attempts per game over five starts is 25.2% above the 34.5 line.
    • Stafford exceeded this number in 3 of 5 games, including 54, 51 and 55 attempts recently.
    • The Rams are 12.5-point favorites, creating blowout risk and fewer second-half dropbacks.
  6. Los Angeles Rams exact margin 1-6Long shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle prices Los Angeles Rams -13.5, anchoring the favored side.
    • A reweighted normal centered at +13.5 with 14.12-point signed SD estimates Rams 1-6 near 24%.
    • Rams may win by 7+, with the sharp 13.5-point center leaving substantial right-tail probability.
Show all 49 picks
  1. Arizona Cardinals under 51.5 totalHigh conviction
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair under 56.5%: projected total 47.5 from both teams' EPA, success, explosive rate, pace and points/drive.
    • Rams: +0.0279 offensive EPA/play, -0.0430 defensive EPA allowed; Cardinals: -0.0650 offense, +0.1366 defense allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Stafford attacks Arizona's vulnerable secondary and Rams efficiency converts into 52-plus points.
  2. Los Angeles Rams spread 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SD 13.5 key-number anchor gives p_anchor 56.7% at Rams over 10.5; +1.0-point model shift gives p_model 59.5%; EV_anchor +3.1%, EV_model +8.2%.
    • Most likely loss: Los Angeles wins by 10.5 points or fewer, or Arizona wins; this margin-tail contract is still only a 59.5% model outcome.
  3. Kyren Williams anytime touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −175 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 69% anytime-TD probability; fair about -220 versus DK -175.
    • Kyren has 70 carries, 343 rushing yards, four rushing TDs and one receiving TD in five games.
    • Rams workhorse role carries 70.4% of charted RB snaps; Arizona has allowed 0.1366 defensive EPA/play in the recent window.
    • Blake Corum has 38 carries and one rushing TD; goal-line work is not completely exclusive.
  4. Game first-half total under 26.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • model projects 23.5 first-half points versus the 26.5 contract.
    • Current offensive-play rates imply roughly 5.8 Arizona and 5.9 Los Angeles first-half drives.
    • Points-per-drive averages are 1.932 Arizona and 2.125 Los Angeles; EPA matchup adjustments keep the projection below market.
    • Drive estimate assumes roughly six plays per drive; hurry-up possessions or turnovers can add scoring chances.
  5. Arizona Cardinals +6.5 first-half spread
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The matchup inputs imply a Rams first-half margin near 5 points: EPA matchup gap is approximately 0.273 per play, while current PPD adds only about 1.1 points across roughly 5.8 first-half drives per team.
    • First-half pace is similar (Rams 29.758, Cardinals 28.726 seconds per play), so there is no strong pace asymmetry forcing an early blowout.
    • The half market is approximately consistent with full-game Rams -12.5 to -13.5 and second-half Rams -6.5, so the value is in the price distribution, not a fabricated line mismatch.
    • A 0.273 EPA/play matchup gap is a five-game, early-season sample and can be distorted by opponent mix and the Cardinals roster transition.
  6. Trey McBride over 6.5 receptions
    +68%Won

    Taken at −147 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8.3 receptions per game over his last three (9, 7, 9) on 33 targets.
    • The 6.5 line is 78% of his three-game 8.3-catch projection.
    • Arizona is a 13-point underdog and has passed on 63.4% of plays across its last five games.
    • Arizona's implied team total is only about 19.25 points, limiting catch opportunities if drives stall.
  7. Over 52 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  8. First-half total under 26.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Script-adjusted first-half mean is 23.5 points against a 26.5 threshold.
    • Recent five-game first-half scoring averages total 20.8 points, with only 9.0 combined average points in the first quarter.
    • Kalshi under 26.5 costs 51¢, with a one-cent quote gap and more than 1,568 contracts traded.
    • A 62% estimate is model-dependent; early touchdowns or defensive scores create a wide downside.
  9. First-half total under 24.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Script-adjusted first-half mean is 23.5 points: 48% of the 51.5 full-game total, reduced by recent early scoring.
    • Arizona and Los Angeles averaged 10.0 and 10.8 first-half points across their five recent games; combined Q1 average was 9.0.
    • Kalshi under 24.5 costs 47¢, with a one-cent quote gap and about 208 contracts traded.
    • A 55% estimate leaves substantial variance; one early explosive play or short field can clear 24.5.
  10. Game total under 51
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game sample: Arizona offense -0.065 EPA/play; Rams defense allows -0.043 EPA/play, a poor Cardinals scoring matchup.
    • Rams' latest PFF defense grade is 70.6 versus Arizona's 49.3, while the sportsbook sharp reference is 51.5 with Pinnacle under -114.
    • QB gate cleared: latest QB1 chart names Jacoby Brissett and Matthew Stafford; game-day injury feed lists only backup QBs out. Five current-season feature rows cover each team.
    • Most likely loss: Los Angeles exploits Arizona's +0.1366 defensive EPA allowed, reaches 30-plus, and the Cardinals contribute enough for 52 or more.
  11. Game total over 51
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • pace inputs are 29.758 Rams and 28.726 Cardinals, a five-game sample; both offenses project briskly.
    • Rest is nearly even at six versus seven days, and the game is non-neutral; no schedule adjustment suppresses the pace read.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's 21.6-point recent scoring average and key receiver absences leave the Cardinals below their 17.5 team anchor.
  12. Los Angeles Rams spread −13
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game 2026 sample: Rams offense +0.0279 EPA/play versus Arizona defense +0.1366 allowed; Arizona offense -0.065 versus Rams defense -0.043.
    • The latest team card favors Los Angeles 79.2 overall and 70.6 defense versus Arizona 70.2 overall and 49.3 defense.
    • Personnel gate cleared: latest QB1 chart has Matthew Stafford and Jacoby Brissett active; both teams have five covered games.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's +13 backdoor cover if Los Angeles stalls after building a lead.
  13. Los Angeles Rams −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

    Comfortable MarginDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raised derived-reference bar was 5 probability points; model-to-price gap is +6.0 points before venue costs.
    • Stafford and Brissett are both current QB1s; recent five-game margin differential favors Los Angeles by 10.6 points.
    • Backdoor variance remains substantial: Los Angeles can win comfortably yet fail to clear 7.5.
  14. Arizona Cardinals under 27.5 team pointsFavorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • −0.065 EPA/play Arizona offense through five games; only 1.93 points per drive.
    • −0.043 opponent EPA/play for Los Angeles defense and 28.7-second Arizona pace suppress efficiency and possessions.
    • Model centers Arizona near 20 points; 27.5 leaves roughly 7.5 points of cushion.
    • Short-field turnovers, a defensive touchdown, or trailing-game script can push Arizona above 27.5.
  15. Los Angeles Rams under 31.5 team total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model band 28, 30 Rams points: +0.0279 offensive EPA/play meets Arizona +0.1366 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Named edge class: PROJECTION plus INTERNAL COHERENCE; reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • Arizona allows +0.1366 EPA/play; explosive Rams drives can turn the matchup into 32-plus points.
  16. Total points under 51.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five-game totals average 54.0 for Arizona and 47.8 for Los Angeles, a blended 50.9 against the 51.5 rung.
    • Efficiency read is mixed but supports a modest total projection: Arizona offense -0.065 EPA/play, Rams offense +0.0279; Rams defense -0.043 allowed versus Arizona +0.1366.
    • QB gate passed: Jacoby Brissett and Matthew Stafford are latest QB1 depth-chart entries, observed 12:01 AM PDT, with active roster status and no current Out/Doubtful designation.
    • Arizona's defense has allowed 0.1366 EPA/play, giving Los Angeles a path to a high-scoring game.
  17. Arizona Cardinals +12.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60% model cover probability versus approximately 49.7% de-vigged market probability.
    • Venue scoring blend projects roughly Rams by 4 points, well short of the 12.5-point spread.
    • Arizona averages 29.0 away points and +0.6 away margin through five games.
    • Arizona has allowed 32.4 points per game over its five 2026 games.
  18. Los Angeles Rams spread −13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning LedgerDown 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams lead Arizona by 0.093 EPA/play on offense and 0.180 EPA/play on defense to date.
    • Official Cardinals team report identifies Jacoby Brissett as starter; Carson Beck remains emergency QB3.
    • Warehouse model projects only an 11.94-point Rams margin versus the 13.5-point cover threshold.
  19. Davante Adams over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +112 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five direct current-season games: 45 targets, 27 receptions; nine targets/game with a 60.0% catch rate.
    • 93.5% route rate and 2.17 yards per route show a sustained full-time receiving role.
    • Adams has cleared 4.5 receptions in only three of five current games; his range is 3 to 8.
  20. Arizona Cardinals to win
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • @RealSkipBayless feed item at 3:40 PM PDT: “They’re about to lose at home to Arizona.”
    • Arizona led Los Angeles 15-9 in Q4 with 3:09 remaining in the live game lookup.
    • Los Angeles could still rally in the final 3:09 through a touchdown, turnover, or special-teams swing.
  21. Jacoby Brissett passing yards under 240.5
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on BetMGM

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1,110 passing yards through five games is 222.0 per game, 18.5 below this line.
    • Los Angeles allows -0.043 defensive EPA/play in its five-game 2026 sample.
    • Rams carry a 70.6 defensive grade and 73.4 coverage grade; Arizona's offense is only 0.4557 successful plays per game-rate sample.
    • Brissett averages 39.8 attempts per game, so efficiency regression could still produce 241-plus yards.
  22. Puka Nacua receiving yards over 93.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nacua averages 112.3 receiving yards across his three active 2026 games.
    • He has 45 targets in three games, including 24 last week and 17 receptions for 138 yards.
    • His season snap share is 83.3%, with 53 routes in his latest game.
    • The sample is only three games, and his 74-yard opener stayed below this number.
  23. Tyler Allgeier rushing attempts under 13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Allgeier has averaged 7.0 carries across five games, below this line by 6.5 attempts.
    • He stayed under 13.5 in four of five games; his season highs are 17 and 8.
    • Arizona is a 13-point road underdog, increasing pass-game and negative-script pressure.
    • Jeremiyah Love is out, which could increase Allgeier's rushing share despite his established role.
  24. Los Angeles Rams first team touchdown
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams red-zone conversion is 65% across five games; Arizona allows 76.5% opponent red-zone conversion.
    • Live rushing is 23-4 Rams, and Kyren Williams is the confirmed RB1 with a 70.4% snap-share workhorse role.
    • Rams lead pregame-to-date offensive EPA (0.028 vs Arizona -0.065) and points per drive (2.125 vs 1.932).
    • Arizona has the next post-punt possession, a meaningful first-score opportunity advantage.
  25. Matthew Stafford passing touchdowns under 3
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Stafford averages 1.8 passing TDs through five games (9 on 216 attempts).
    • Rams average 4.0 red-zone possessions and convert 13 of 20; three passing TDs requires unusually concentrated aerial scoring.
    • Kyren Williams is the confirmed RB1/workhorse at 70.4% snap share, supporting a run-heavy goal-line script for the heavy home favorite.
    • Arizona has allowed 13 touchdowns on 17 opponent red-zone trips, creating an efficient matchup for Rams scoring.
  26. Kyren Williams over 0.5 touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kyren leads the Rams backfield with a 70.4% snap share and a workhorse role label.
    • Rams have converted 13 of 20 season red-zone trips (65%); opponents facing Arizona have converted 11 of 17 (64.7%).
    • The Rams are a major favorite at 87.75¢ on the same venue, supporting a late run-heavy goal-line script assumption.
    • Kyren's 70.4% share is a usage proxy, not a verified player red-zone-touch count.
  27. Tyler Higbee over 2.5 receptions
    +68%Won

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate 80%; L10 80%; 2026 season 100% over 2.5 receptions.
    • Higbee owns a three-game over streak with 5, 5, and 8 receptions.
    • Season average is 5.0 receptions, a 100% projection edge over the 2.5 line.
    • H2H is 2/4 over versus Arizona at this line family; prior matchups are a meaningful counter-signal.
  28. Arizona Cardinals spread +12.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are 3 versus 3; that measure is neutral, but the thin-at-quote and deep-in-total measures agree, with meaningful raw stake on both sides.
    • Backing Arizona Cardinals +12.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Live ProphetX price is 49.26¢ (+103 American).
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the Cardinals: 3 versus 3, so this is a two-measure read rather than three-measure confirmation.
  29. Kyren Williams over 19.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 39.8 receiving yards per game across five starts is 104.1% above the 19.5 line.
    • Williams cleared this number in 4 of 5 games, with 27, 66, 70 and 24 receiving yards.
    • His 33 targets and 27 catches show a stable receiving role, reinforced by a 57.6% route-participation rate.
    • A Rams lead could shift late-game work toward rushing attempts and reduce targets.
  30. Game total under 36.5Long shot
    +809%Won

    Taken at 11¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
  31. Los Angeles Rams first-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION, Rams offense EPA/play is +0.0279 versus Arizona -0.0650, a +0.0929 gap.
    • to-date defense gap favors Los Angeles by 0.1796: Rams allowed -0.0430 versus Arizona +0.1366.
    • Arizona has 7 days to Los Angeles' 6; no Rams rest edge, but the one-day gap is not material enough to erase the talent signal.
    • Arizona owns the rest advantage, 7 days to 6, and extra preparation can matter in this scripted segment.
  32. First-half total over 26.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is Cardinals 7 days, Rams 6: no Rams rest boost, but no short-week suppression of either scripted offense.
    • The one-day rest edge is Arizona's, not Los Angeles's; the rest mechanism does not support a side or a Rams scoring surge.
  33. Los Angeles Rams spread −12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams offense EPA/play +0.0279 versus Arizona -0.0650, a 0.0929-play advantage.
    • Rams defense EPA/play allowed -0.0430 versus Arizona +0.1366, a 0.1796-play differential.
    • Personnel gate: ProphetX lists Stafford and Brissett game markets; the live injury feed lists only backup QBs Simpson and Beck Out.
    • Rams must win by 13; Arizona +12.5 cashes on a one-score loss.
  34. Game total over 52
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams offense +0.028 EPA/play and Arizona defense +0.137 EPA/play allowed create a strong scoring path.
    • Both teams show aggressive PROE: Rams +0.179, Cardinals +0.184; pace is 29.758 and 28.726 seconds/play.
    • Pinnacle is 51.5 over -102; venue offers a higher number at plus money, not a devig gate.
    • Arizona offense is -0.065 EPA/play while Rams defense is -0.043, so the Cardinals could stall below 20 points.
  35. Trey McBride first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1500 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 8% first-TD probability; fair about +1150 versus DK +1500.
    • McBride owns 56 targets and 42 receptions, the most reliable early scoring-access profile on Arizona's depleted offense.
    • Marvin Harrison Jr. is out, increasing the probability that McBride is the Cardinals' first scoring-read option.
    • The Cardinals' 1.932 recent points-per-drive rate and 12.5-point spread make an Arizona first score less likely.
  36. Arizona Cardinals 1Q to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NFC West divisional matchup satisfies the exact-division gate.
    • Arizona has scored 21 first-quarter points in its last five games: 4.2 per game, clearing the 4.0 threshold.
    • Arizona scored at least seven first-quarter points in two of its last five games despite a 1-4 overall record.
    • Rams first-quarter defensive EPA allowed is -0.225 per play, weighted across 74 plays in their last five; this fails the > -0.05 slow-start gate.
  37. Kyren Williams over 68.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • He handled 15, 16, and 16 carries in those games, a stable workload without a committee warning.
    • Recent rushing output averaged 72.3 yards, above DraftKings' 68.5-yard line.
    • Arizona allowed 498 running-back rushing yards on 116 carries over the last four games: 124.5 yards per game.
    • Williams averaged only 4.8 yards above the line, so ordinary efficiency variance can decide this.
  38. Game total under 26.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20.8 combined first-half points per game across the Rams' and Cardinals' last five games.
    • Rams averaged 10.8 first-half points; Arizona averaged 10.0, well below the 26.5 market threshold.
    • Model projects 24.5 first-half points after opponent and short-rest adjustments.
    • Arizona's defense allowed 0.137 EPA per play recently, creating quick-score and short-field risk.
  39. Puka Nacua over 22.7 PPR fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25.9 PPR points per game through three games, including rushing production and a rushing touchdown.
    • Nacua has 24 targets and 17 catches for 138 yards plus a touchdown in his latest game.
    • Los Angeles projects near 32 points from a 51.5 total and -12.5 spread; the Rams pass at a 64.0% rate.
    • Three-game sample is thin for a distributional projection and role stability is not fully established.
  40. Matthew Stafford under 1.5 passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +155 on BetMGM

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At 0:20 Q1, Stafford had 5 attempts, 2 completions, 6 passing yards, and 0 TDs; participation is confirmed.
    • Los Angeles produced 3 points through its opening possessions; live EPA was -0.437/play with a 33% success rate.
    • The TD-under offers substantially more modeled value than the live full-game under 48.5 at -110, while avoiding a broad total projection.
    • Stafford had 3 games over 1.5 passing TDs in his prior five, and Arizona's pregame defensive EPA allowed was +0.137.
  41. Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +125 on BetMGM

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 hit rate 60%; L10 80%; 2026 season 60% over 1.5.
    • Brissett has a three-game over streak: 3, 2, 2 passing TDs.
    • Season average is 1.8 TDs, a 20% projection edge over the 1.5 line.
    • Rams defense has allowed negative recent EPA per play, creating interception and stalled-drive risk.
  42. Game total under 47.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so this clears on two measures, not three; raw thin-side availability is above the few-hundred-dollar noise threshold.
    • Backing under 47.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quote: +152 American / 39.68¢.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate the direction (3-3); the depth advantage is meaningful but not overwhelming.
  43. Game total under 52
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended 2026 scoring and defensive rates center this matchup near 49, 50 points, below 52.
    • Rams average 24.1 points scored and 18.8 allowed; Arizona averages 24.0 scored and 31.7 allowed through Week 5.
    • The ProphetX under-52 contract provides a half-point cushion over the venue's current 51.5 projection line.
    • Arizona's poor defense can create short fields and push this into a shootout quickly.

Questions

Who won Cardinals vs. Rams?

The Cardinals won 18–16 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

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