Get app

Cowboys vs. PackersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLambeau Field
Cowboys2–3
13–23Final
Packers3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
DAL007613
GB7103323

Top model pick, graded

Won

Ryan Flournoy over 32.5 receiving yards −112

Why NFL Regression Radar likes it: Dallas' recent 65.3% pass-play rate supports a stable route opportunity.

NFL Regression RadarDown 6% this season · 73 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 32-40 on this game · −13% return

  1. Dallas Cowboys to win9 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on BetMGM

    9 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, Key Number +7
    Why 9 models like it
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Dallas leads Green Bay by 0.0753 net EPA/play over the last 10, roughly 4.9 points over a 65-play game.
    • Dallas has the stronger current offense profile: 0.1478 offensive EPA/play versus Green Bay's -0.0611.
    • The point-in-time current-season net EPA edge is small: Dallas -0.0024 versus Green Bay -0.0103.
    Key Number
      • Green Bay home field and Dallas defensive EPA allowed of +0.1502 versus Green Bay's -0.0508 oppose the Dallas position.
      Drift
      • Dallas owns a 3-day rest edge and leads points per drive 3.0905 to 1.8136 through the current-season sample.
      • Most likely loss: Dallas's 0.1502 defensive EPA allowed lets Jordan Love exploit the Cowboys secondary and erase the narrow road edge.
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Five-game current-season sample: Dallas offense +0.1478 EPA/play versus Green Bay defense -0.0508, while Green Bay offense is -0.0611 versus Dallas defense allowing +0.1502.
      • The efficiency mismatch is reinforced by PFF: Dallas offense 79.9 versus Green Bay defense 70.0, and Green Bay offense 59.8 versus Dallas defense 50.2.
      • Most likely loss: Green Bay's home field and Dallas's +0.1502 defensive EPA allowed turn the Packers' red-zone chances into a multi-score edge.
    • Game total under 53.55 models agree
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Novig

      5 modelsForecast Under, Pigskin Pete +3
      Why 5 models like it
      Forecast Under
      • Pinnacle's 53.5 total devigs to 48.9% under before weather; the weather-adjusted same-line estimate is 55%.
      • NWS Green Bay weather story forecasts sustained southwest winds of 15, 25 mph and gusts up to 30, 40 mph.
      • The official forecast gives a range and says winds diminish this evening; kickoff-specific sustained wind could be below 15 mph.
      Pigskin Pete
      • 48.4 combined points per game through five 2026 games is 5.1 below the 53.5 total.
      • Green Bay is at -0.0611 offensive EPA/play and 1.8136 points/drive season-to-date; recent points/drive is 1.967.
      • Dallas is the stronger passing offense: 0.1185 recent offensive EPA/play and Dak owns an 85.3 PFF passing grade.
      Shawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter
      • Only 7 points at 2:36 of Q1; Dallas opened with a three-play, minus-2-yard punt drive.
      • Live EPA is negative for both offenses: Dallas -0.390/play and Green Bay -0.044/play through the latest 26 offensive plays.
      • Green Bay's opening drive covered 90 yards in 14 plays and produced a touchdown.
      Long Way Home
      • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, own matchup blend centers the game near 50, 51 points versus the 53.5 line.
      • Dallas has 0.148 offensive EPA/play and 3.09 points/drive, but Green Bay has -0.061 offensive EPA/play and 1.81 points/drive.
      • Most likely loss: Dallas’ 3.09 points/drive and 0.511 success rate produce a fast, efficient game that clears 54.
    • Dallas Cowboys +1.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −118 on FanDuel

      2 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, +EV Volume Handicapper
      Why 2 models like it
      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
      • Dallas recent offense EPA/play: +0.1185 vs Green Bay -0.0366.
      • Cowboys hold a 79.9, 59.8 PFF offense-grade edge; pass grade gap is 85.3, 67.3.
      • Green Bay’s PFF defense grades 70.0 vs Dallas 50.2, a substantial counterweight.
      +EV Volume Handicapper
      • Dallas has a +0.209 recent offensive EPA/play advantage and a +0.071 success-rate advantage.
      • Dallas averages 3.09 recent points per drive versus Green Bay's 1.81; season split also favors Dallas' offense.
      • Dallas' defense allows 0.150 recent EPA/play; Green Bay's explosive-play rate is higher at 12.5%.
    • CeeDee Lamb over 6.5 receptions2 models agree
      +106%Won

      Taken at +106 on FanDuel

      2 modelsSecond Wind, NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
      Why 2 models like it
      Second Wind
      • 51 targets and 39 catches through five games: 7.8 receptions per game versus a 6.5 line.
      • Green Bay cornerback Benjamin St-Juste is out; Brandon Cisse is questionable after limited practice.
      • Week 5 fell to 27 routes and four targets, showing real role volatility.
      NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte Carlo
      • p_raw 58.0%; p_market 45.7% from Pinnacle's same-market board.
      • 0.50 shrinkage: direct five-game sample, 92.8% route rate, 51 targets and 39 receptions.
      • Lamb had only 2 receptions on 5 targets in his most recent game, showing meaningful weekly variance.
    • Dallas Cowboys spread +1.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Morning Ledger
      Why 2 models like it
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Five-game current-season sample: Dallas offense +0.1478 EPA/play versus Green Bay defense -0.0508; the +0.1986 matchup gap favors Dallas.
      • Green Bay offense is -0.0611 EPA/play against a Dallas defense allowing +0.1502; Dallas also has 10 rest days versus Green Bay's 7.
      • Most likely loss: Green Bay's home field and a Dallas defense allowing +0.1502 EPA/play produce enough Packers scoring for a multi-point win.
      Morning Ledger
      • Pinnacle makes Green Bay -1 at +100 and Dallas +1 at -111; the exchange rung is only 0.5 points farther.
      • Dallas leads the game-feature inputs in offensive EPA/play (0.148 vs Green Bay -0.061) and success rate (51.1% vs 44.0%).
      • Green Bay has home field and the sharp line still makes the Packers a small favorite.
    • Evan Williams over 7.5 tackles + assistsHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −121 on DraftKings

      NFL Defensive Tackles & Assists Quant ModelDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 9.2-tackle mean across five 2026 games; four of five cleared 7.5.
      • Every charted game shows full defensive deployment: 100% of team defensive snaps, with zero snap-share variation.
      • Negative-binomial projection is 9.2, approximately 71% for 8+ and 1.7 tackles above the posted line.
      • Dallas can create explosive plays that end drives without intermediate safety tackles.
    Show all 57 picks
    1. Ryan Flournoy over 32.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas' recent 65.3% pass-play rate supports a stable route opportunity.
      • Flournoy remains behind Lamb and Pickens in the target hierarchy, so a modest target redistribution can erase the edge.
    2. George Pickens over 69.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
      +88%Won

      Taken at −114 on DraftKings

      NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • That is 22.8% above target-based expectation; his 84.3% season snap share is top-tier.
      • Snap share held at 85.1%, 85.9%, and 88.3% in the last three games.
      • The 77.9-yard baseline is 12.1% above DraftKings' 69.5-yard line.
      • Green Bay carries a strong 76.3 PFF coverage grade and can force shorter targets.
    3. Green Bay Packers −3.5
      +178%Won

      Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

      Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The 4-6 allocation uses this wake's 2016+ histogram: 453 of 1,135 one-to-six margins (39.9%).
      • Tier 1: key margins 3, 7, 10, 6, 4 and 14 were 1,267 of 2,847 games (44.5%).
      • Self-reference only: exact-margin buckets and the spread ladder can share model error.
    4. Dallas Cowboys spread −3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

      Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    5. Over total 51.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Total distribution anchor gives p_anchor 57.5% at Over 51.5; the model adds 1.5 points for two fast offenses plus efficiency/PROE support, giving p_model 61.8%.
      • Most likely loss: the game finishes at 51 points or fewer; a half-point 51.5 contract has no push outcome.
    6. Dallas Cowboys first-half winner
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION, Dallas has 10 rest days versus Green Bay's 7, a three-day scripted-half advantage.
      • Points per drive favors Dallas 3.0905 to 1.8136; Dallas also has the faster pace, 27.808 versus 29.49 seconds per play.
      • Dallas's defensive EPA is materially worse: +0.1502 allowed versus Green Bay -0.0508, which can erase the offensive and rest edge.
    7. Dallas Cowboys first touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas opening-drive touchdown rate: 6/12 (50.0%) across 12 games; Green Bay: 2/9 (22.2%) across 9.
      • Dallas offense has +0.1185 recent EPA/play and 2.909 points/drive; Green Bay is -0.0366 and 1.967.
      • Eligible first-touchdown yes prices sum to 1.02, identifying a modestly rich side; Green Bay is the structurally overstated leg.
      • Opening kickoff recipient is not published; possession order is the largest first-score input.
    8. Packers–Cowboys under 53.5 total points
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on FanDuel

      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 48.4 combined points across both teams' last five games, 5.1 below the market total.
      • PIT EPA model: Green Bay offense -0.0611/play and 1.81 points/drive; Dallas defense is the main over threat.
      • Combined pace is modest at 57.3 seconds per offensive play, limiting expected possessions.
      • Dallas allows +0.1502 defensive EPA/play, so Green Bay can outperform its weak offensive baseline.
    9. Dallas Cowboys spread −1
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas has 10 rest days versus Green Bay's 7; live ProphetX passing-yard boards list Dak Prescott and Jordan Love, with no QB game injury designation.
      • Most likely loss: Green Bay's defensive EPA is much better (-0.0508 versus Dallas +0.1502), keeping Dallas from winning by more than one.
    10. 2-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +18700

      Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX re-quote is +188 with $273 maximum stake, inside the +150 to +600 target.
      • Carolina is on a road back-to-back and is missing Jordan Staal, Seth Jarvis and Taylor Hall; the injury snapshot is stale by roughly 12 hours.
    11. Jake Ferguson anytime touchdownLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +265 on DraftKings

      TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 31% model probability versus 27.4% DraftKings break-even at +265.
      • Ferguson leads Dallas tight ends with 159 routes and 21 targets through five games.
      • He has 3 receiving touchdowns already; his 71.7% season snap share rose to 83.3% last game.
      • Green Bay's defense grades 70.0 overall with 76.3 coverage, a difficult matchup.
    12. Green Bay Packers first-half winnerFavorite
      +47%Won

      Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Green Bay leads 7-0 with 4:43 left in Q1; its season-to-date defensive EPA allowed is -0.0508 versus Dallas at +0.1502.
      • half-margin dispersion scales with the square root of drives, not by linearly halving full-game variance.
      • Dallas owns the stronger season-to-date offense by EPA (+0.1478 versus Green Bay -0.0611), so a late response can erase the current lead.
    13. Game first-half total under 27.5
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE plus PROJECTION.
      • To-date points per drive are 3.0905 for Dallas and 1.8136 for Green Bay; the matchup blend points below the 27.5 first-half threshold.
      • The full-game total is 53.5 while the board centers the 2H total around 26.5; that makes 1H 27.5 the high side of the half arithmetic, before the normal late scoring bump.
      • Dallas has produced explosive offense and Green Bay's defense is only modestly positive by EPA; one early touchdown each puts 27.5 under pressure.
    14. Dallas Cowboys first-half spread +2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; edge class: PROJECTION plus INTERNAL COHERENCE.
      • Dallas leads the pregame EPA profile: +0.1478 offense EPA/play versus Green Bay's -0.0611, with a 3.0905 versus 1.8136 points-per-drive gap.
      • Square-root scaling of drive-margin variance makes a half less deterministic than mechanically halving the game spread; +2.5 retains useful tail cushion.
      • Green Bay has home field and Dallas's defense is allowing +0.1502 EPA/play to date; short fields can erase the matchup edge.
    15. Dallas Cowboys 2H team total over 10.5
      +61%Won

      Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

      IntermissionUp 54% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 66 relevant contracts screened; 12 excluded: eight for the broken Green Bay 1H ladder and four placeholder-tail quotes.
      • Dallas 1H and full-team ladders are monotone after screening; 1H over 10.5 is 0.26 while 2H over 10.5 is 0.62.
      • Live state is Dallas 0, Green Bay 7 with 2:36 left in Q1; the trailing underdog has the brief's second-half acceleration/right-tail setup.
      • Dallas has produced 0 points and already punted after a three-play, minus-two-yard drive; continued offensive failure loses.
    16. Matthew Golden over 65.5 receiving yards
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on DraftKings

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 123, 21, and 100 receiving yards in those three games; 81.3-yard average.
      • Dallas allows +0.1502 defensive EPA/play to date; its coverage grade is 38.6.
      • The 81.3-yard average is a three-game sample with one 21-yard outlier.
    17. Under 53.5 total
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Green Bay has -0.0611 offensive EPA/play, 1.8136 points/drive and a slower 29.49-second pace; Dallas's defense is the counterweight, not an ignored strength.
      • Most likely loss: Dallas's offense is producing +0.1478 EPA/play and 3.0905 points/drive, creating efficient scoring drives.
    18. First-half total under 26.5
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

      Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Full-game sharp total is 53.5 with 0.0-point movement; the 47, 49% conversion centers the first half near 25, 26 points.
      • Dallas and Green Bay combined for a 22.2-point first-half average across their ten 2026 games.
      • Opening-drive scoring was Dallas 4-for-5 and Green Bay 2-for-5; both teams also carry above-54% early-down pass rates, supporting a measured but not explosive script.
      • Dallas has scored on four of five opening drives, so one fast touchdown can consume much of the cushion.
    19. Javonte Williams over 0.5 anytime touchdowns
      +59%Won

      Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

      Run First & Anytime TD QuantDown 26% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 75% red-zone rushing-attempt share over Dallas's last four games (18 of 24)
      • Active on the game board and No. 1 RB on Dallas's 10/18 depth-chart snapshot
      • Dallas implied for 27.5 points from a 53.5 total and -1.5 spread
      • The 75% share is a four-game sample and uses inside-the-20 rushing attempts as the red-zone proxy
    20. Game total under 54.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 54.5 is 0.5 above the 26.5 + 27.5 team-total sum.
      • 54.5 is 0.5 below twice the 27.5 first-half total (55).
      • Personnel gate passed: ESPN game-day data was cross-checked with nfl_injury_latest; Packers.com confirmed Savion Williams active.
      • Dallas has 10 rest days versus Green Bay's 7, potentially improving late-game pace and execution.
    21. Green Bay Packers −7.5
      +163%Won

      Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

      Comfortable MarginDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • live score is Green Bay 7, Dallas 0 at 4:43 of Q1; both starting QBs are confirmed as Jordan Love and Dak Prescott.
      • Raised DERIVED REFERENCE bar is an 8-point probability gap; the 20-point disagreement clears it despite no exact sharp alternate rung.
      • This is the high-base-rate alternate-spread desk, distinct from the plus-money-value fleet: a high hit rate is not profitable unless the price is below true probability.
      • Dallas had the stronger pregame offensive EPA-to-date profile (0.148 versus Green Bay -0.061), so the early deficit can reverse quickly.
    22. Dallas Cowboys under 27.5 team points
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • RECOMMENDED; PROJECTION plus INTERNAL COHERENCE; no sharp reference, so the band is conservative.
      • Dallas averages 27.6 points, but Green Bay allows 20.6 per game and has -0.0508 defensive EPA-to-date.
      • Dallas offense is +0.1478 EPA/play; matchup-adjusted scoring projection is approximately 24.5, 25.5 points.
      • Dallas scored 31 or more in three of five games; positive offensive EPA can overwhelm the defensive matchup.
    23. Total points under 53.5
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas owns +0.1478 offensive EPA/play; Green Bay owns -0.0611, while Green Bay defense allows -0.0508 EPA/play.
      • Recent five-game totals average 57.2 for Dallas and 43.2 for Green Bay; the blended 50.2 baseline sits below 53.5.
      • DraftKings and Pinnacle both post 53.5; their under prices are -108 and -102, respectively.
      • Dallas defense allows +0.1502 EPA/play; explosive plays can turn this into a shootout.
    24. Christian Watson over 18.3 PPR fantasy points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

      NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 21.9 PPR points per game through five weeks: 26 receptions, 474 yards and six touchdowns.
      • Watson has a 79.0% charted snap share, while Green Bay owns a 66.7% pass rate.
      • The 53.5 game total supports elevated touchdown and explosive-play opportunity.
      • Watson clears 18.3 in only three of five games; his target range is wide.
    25. Dallas Cowboys winning margin 1 to 6Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

      NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • EPA matchup differential is +0.4099 for Dallas after cross-matching each offense with the opponent defense.
      • Dallas leads success rate 51.1% to 44.0% and points per drive 3.09 to 1.81.
      • Key-number adjustment centers the margin near Dallas +3; Dallas 1, 6 receives 27% modeled mass, including 3 and 6 clustering.
      • Dallas defense allowed +0.1502 EPA/play; Green Bay's -0.0508 defensive mark can force a narrow Packers win.
    26. Javonte Williams first touchdown scorerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +425 on BetMGM

      NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas offense: +0.148 EPA/play, 51.1% success, 3.09 points/drive; Green Bay defense allows -0.051 EPA/play.
      • Dallas converted 15 of 18 red-zone trips into touchdowns (83.3%) through five games.
      • Williams has 21 red-zone rushes, 15 inside-the-10 involvements, a 76.9% snap share, and a workhorse role.
      • Green Bay's defense is strong overall: 70.0 PFF grade and -0.051 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    27. Game total over 53.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Skip Bayless, Gridiron video streamed Oct. 16: “I’m going to go high score.”
      • He projected Packers 38, Cowboys 35, 73 combined points.
      • Kalshi prices Over 53.5 at 50¢, a bettable prediction-market contract.
      • Skip’s 73-point score is one opinion, not an independently verified model.
    28. Game total under 54
      +93%Won

      Taken at −108 on BetMGM

      NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 49.0-point matchup baseline: Dallas 27.6 scored/27.2 allowed, Green Bay 20.8 scored/22.4 allowed over five games.
      • Green Bay offense is -0.061 EPA/play with a 44.0% success rate; Dallas defense allows +0.150 EPA/play, creating uneven efficiency rather than two-way strength.
      • Mostly sunny forecast with 8, 13 mph sustained wind and only a 20% shower chance adds no over-weather boost.
      • Dallas offense is +0.148 EPA/play, passes on 65.3% of plays, and can create a shootout tail.
    29. Christian Watson over 4.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −144 on DraftKings

      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Watson averages 5.2 receptions and 8.0 targets through five games.
      • He cleared 4.5 receptions in four of five games, with 26 catches on 40 targets overall.
      • His 79.0% offensive snap share confirms stable WR2 participation; the odds feed lists him active.
      • Watson has a 3-catch game in the sample, so the distribution remains volatile.
    30. Javonte Williams under 17.5 rushing attempts
      +83%Won

      Taken at −120 on DraftKings

      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season average is 14.8 carries across five games, 15.4% below the 17.5 line.
      • Williams stayed under 17.5 in all five 2026 games: 12, 12, 19, 19, 12 attempts.
      • Workhorse role is verified at a 76.9% offensive snap share and he is active.
      • Green Bay's 64.5 run-defense grade is not a premium matchup for an under.
    31. MarShawn Lloyd 1+ touchdowns
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 47¢ venue price; my usage-based estimate for no touchdown is 60%.
      • Lloyd is the current RB1/depth-chart slot 1, but only a committee-lead 38.4% snap share and 34.7% run-snap rate.
      • Green Bay has 18 red-zone attempts and 9 conversions (50%) through five games; Dallas has allowed 14 scores on 20 opponent red-zone trips (70%).
      • Lloyd remains the declared RB1 and one goal-line carry can immediately beat the NO position.
    32. Dallas Cowboys first team touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas has converted 15 of 18 red-zone trips (83.3%) versus Green Bay's 9 of 18 (50.0%).
      • Dallas' offense is +0.148 EPA/play to date; Green Bay is -0.061, a meaningful script and drive-quality gap.
      • Javonte Williams owns a 76.9% snap share, workhorse label, and RB1 depth-chart slot, concentrating Dallas goal-line equity.
      • Opening-kick result and scripted first-drive tendencies are unresolved; first touchdown is inherently high variance.
    33. Dallas Cowboys +1
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels are tied 3-3; two of three measures agree, with $534 on the thin side clearing the few-hundred-dollar check.
      • Directional check: backing Dallas +1, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level count does not corroborate: 3-3, so the read is only two of three measures.
    34. Green Bay Packers spread +3.5
      +56%Won

      Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Packers +3.5 wins if Dallas wins by exactly 3; Packers +3 would push on that result.
      • ProphetX charges 64.29c for Packers +3.5 versus 61.83c for Packers +3, only a 2.46c half-point premium.
      • No independent directional projection: Dallas winning by 4 or more loses this contract.
    35. CeeDee Lamb over 81.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 101.4 receiving yards per game over his last five versus an 81.5 line: 24.4% above.
      • Lamb averaged 10.2 targets and 7.8 receptions across that five-game sample.
      • Green Bay's last-10 defensive EPA allowed was +0.0502, while Dallas' offense averaged +0.0864 EPA per play.
      • Lamb cleared this line in only three of five recent games; his latest line was 2 receptions for 9 yards.
    36. Christian Watson over 76.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 94.8 receiving yards per game over his last five versus a 76.5 line: 23.9% above.
      • Watson averaged 8.0 targets across those five games and logged 79% offensive snap share.
      • Live roster data lists Watson active; the game usage board identifies him as Green Bay's WR2.
      • Only three of five recent games cleared 76.5, with two performances at 47 or fewer yards.
    37. Game first-half total over 24.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION, Dallas has 10 rest days versus Green Bay's 7, with the faster pace: 27.808 versus 29.49 seconds per play.
      • Dallas's defensive EPA allowed is +0.1502, offsetting Green Bay's weak offense and supporting points from both possessions.
      • Pinnacle's 25.5 first-half total anchors a possession/EPA projection near 27.1; same-rung modeling gives over 24.5 about 60%.
      • Green Bay's 1.8136 PPD and slower pace can suppress the half despite Dallas's offensive advantage.
    38. Green Bay Packers NO to win by over 2.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION, Dallas has 10 rest days versus Green Bay's 7, a three-day scripted-half advantage.
      • Pinnacle's direct first-half line leans Green Bay at -0.5, so the 2.5-point translation is model-dependent.
    39. Dallas Cowboys spread −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.1478 to Green Bay -0.0611 and success rate 51.1% to 44.0%.
      • Dallas has a 10-day rest interval versus Green Bay's 7 days; the half-point is priced at plus money.
      • Green Bay's defense is materially better: -0.0508 EPA allowed versus Dallas +0.1502, with Lambeau home field.
    40. Matthew Golden over 67.5 receiving yards
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • NGS REG, 5 games: 15.16-yard last-four intended-air-yard average; separation averaged 3.10 yards and rose to 4.02 in Week 5.
      • Game-specific WR-CB assignment is unpublished; primary Dallas outside reference DaRon Bland has a 45.0 coverage grade over 177 coverage snaps, with no shadow established.
      • The game-specific WR-CB table is empty; Dallas can rotate or bracket Golden, so assignment uncertainty caps this at 0.5u.
    41. George Pickens over 5.5 receptions
      +128%Won

      Taken at +128 on FanDuel

      Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pickens has 41 targets and 27 catches through five games, averaging 8.2 targets and 5.4 receptions.
      • St-Juste is out and Cisse remains questionable, thinning Green Bay's cornerback rotation.
      • FanDuel's +128 is better than DraftKings' +117, leaving a plus-money price on a stable role.
      • His 5.4-catch average is almost exactly the 5.5 threshold; this is a thin-margin lean.
    42. Christian Watson over 73.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas allowed +0.115, +0.218, and +0.104 defensive EPA/play in its last three regular-season games.
      • Skyy Moore is officially Out and Savion Williams is Questionable after limited Friday practice, narrowing Green Bay's receiver rotation.
      • Watson has no current Week 6 injury designation; the live odds roster lists him Active. DK -110 is preferable to FD -114 at 74.5.
      • A 73.5-yard line needs at least one meaningful explosive gain; short-area usage can miss despite strong routes.
    43. Christian Watson over 66.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −114 on FanDuel

      Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Watson saw 10, 3, and 8 targets and produced 96, 47, and 143 yards; three-game average is 95.3 yards.
      • Dallas allowed 1,704 WR yards on 182 targets across its last four games, a major recent position-group weakness.
      • FanDuel's 66.5-yard line at -114 sits 28.8 yards below Watson's trailing-three average; re-check after the injury report and game plan are known.
      • One of the last three games finished below this line: 47 yards on three targets.
    44. 1H total under 26.5
      +105%Won

      Taken at +105 on FanDuel

      NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Dallas and Green Bay have averaged 10.6 and 11.6 first-half points across their five 2026 games.
      • Recent first-half drive averages are 4.8 for Dallas and 5.4 for Green Bay, but combined scoring is only 22.2 points.
      • Opening drives produced 2 Dallas TDs, 2 field goals, 1 punt; Green Bay produced 1 TD, 1 field goal, 3 punts.
      • The first-half sample is only 10 team-games; one early explosive play can erase the modeled gap.
    45. Dallas Cowboys D/ST 1+ touchdownLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi

      Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Skip Bayless posted “WINTERS COMES EARLY TO LAMBEAU. PICK 6! 7-ALL.” about 5 minutes before this submission.
      • His follow-up identified Dee Winters, tying “Winters” to the Dallas defensive player and the pick-six call.
      • A Dallas pick-six would produce the 7-7 score Skip described.
      • The Kalshi contract covers any Dallas D/ST touchdown, not specifically a Dee Winters interception return.
    46. Christian Watson 70+ receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

      Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • RealSkipBayless wrote on X on Oct. 18: “I’ll take Christian Watson over my Christian Parker.”
      • The X post is explicitly framed around Cowboys vs. Packers tonight.
      • Watson is listed as an active Green Bay participant for this game.
      • Skip specified a cornerback matchup, not a 70-yard threshold; this is an operational mapping.
    47. Green Bay Packers −1.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Oct. 13 X post: “AND PACKERS ARE ONLY A 1.5-PT FAVORITE???”
      • Skip cited Jordan Love's 48- and 40-point prior performances against Dallas.
      • He called Dallas the NFL's 31st defense facing Love at Lambeau.
      • Skip posed a rhetorical question rather than explicitly saying “bet Green Bay -1.5.”
    48. Green Bay Packers to win
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Stephen A. Smith, Oct. 17: “Oh boy, I am going to go with the Dallas Cowboys solely because the Cowboys offense is the best unit…”
      • He doubled down that Dallas can “score enough points to win enough games to pull this one out,” making this a specific, emphatic game call.
      • PickWatch showed no auditable 2026 record or sample for Smith, so this is a deliberate fade of an unverified loud proclamation.
      • Smith could simply be right; Dallas' offense may overcome its defensive concerns.
    49. Dak Prescott passing yards over 272.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Exact line: 4/5 L5, 7/10 L10, and 4/5 in 2026; no pushes.
      • Dak averages 276.2 passing yards in 2026 with a 100% offensive snap share and 38.4 attempts per game over L5.
      • Dallas owns +0.1185 recent offensive EPA/play; Green Bay allowed +0.0195 defensive EPA/play over the preview window.
      • The 2026 average is only 1.4% above 272.5, below the brief's preferred 5% projection gap.
    50. Jordan Love passing touchdowns over 1.5Favorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −190 on BetMGM

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Exact line: 5/5 L5, 7/10 L10, and 5/5 in 2026; no pushes.
      • 2026 average is 2.0 passing TDs, 33.3% above the 1.5 line; positive projection gap.
      • Love has a 99.4% offensive snap share; Green Bay has a 60.9% recent pass rate.
      • Passing touchdowns are high-variance; seven hits in ten games remains a modest sample.
    51. under 54.5 total points
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • under 54.5 wins at 54 or fewer; 54.5 cannot push, while under 54 pushes exactly 54.
      • ProphetX under 54.5 is -110 (52.38¢) versus under 54 at -103 (50.74¢), only a 1.64¢ step-up.
      • NFL warehouse: exactly 54 total points occurred 59 of 2,637 games (2.237%), converting the whole-rung push into a half-rung win.
      • This is not a projection: totals of 55 or more lose, and no independent game-total forecast was used.

    Questions

    Who won Cowboys vs. Packers?

    The Packers won 23–13 on Sunday, Oct 18, 2026.

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.