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Patriots vs. BearsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSoldier Field
Patriots4–2
24–30Final
Bears4–2
Score by period
Team1234T
NE0147324
CHI10107330

Top model pick, graded

Won

Fourth quarter ends tied 14¢

Why Level Terms likes it: Direct fourth-quarter draw YES costs 0.14: a two-point contradiction with the handicap-implied draw.

Level TermsUp 76% return this season · 53 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 30-28 on this game · +26% return

  1. Game total under 50.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    3 modelsEV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner
    • Last-five scoring averages combine to 43.4 points: Patriots 25.2, Bears 18.2.
    • Season scoring averages combine to 47.7 points, still 2.8 below the 50.5 market total.
    • Caleb Williams is no longer listed on the official injury report, removing the strongest under catalyst.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Chicago and New England defenses allow -0.135 and -0.055 EPA/play; both offenses are slightly negative.
    • Pace is 30.74 and 30.13 seconds/play, a slower-tempo profile than a typical shootout setup.
    • The 53% fair estimate is modest and based on six games, not a direct total simulation.
    Number Earned
    • Fair total 46.5; 4.0 points of cushion versus DraftKings 50.5.
    • New England scored 25.2 points per game over its last five; Chicago scored 18.2.
    • The market total is 50.5 with the over shaded at DraftKings, opposing the lower recent-scoring estimate.
  2. Chicago Bears −2.53 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    3 modelsKey Rung, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Key Rung
    • Pinnacle's main Chicago -3 fair is 50.9% after de-vigging -109/-101; crossing key 3 adds approximately 9 points.
    • Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the identified starters; Case Keenum and Behren Morton are listed out, with Maye cleared for full practice.
    • The approximately 9% key-3 mass is a structural estimate, not a game-specific distribution.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Timestamped BUYs included Bears -2.5 at 54¢ through 4:24 PM PDT; current Polymarket US cost is 54.5¢.
    • The recent-trade feed is truncated, so a partial snapshot could miss a hedge despite unopposed current NFL positions.
    CLV Sharp ATS
    • Polymarket US offers Chicago -2.5 at 54.5c versus a -3.0 sportsbook consensus.
    • The -2.5 price crosses below the primary 3 key number, gaining 0.5 points.
    • Caleb Williams remains questionable; his active status is not confirmed at this wake.
  3. Chicago Bears to win3 models agree
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    3 modelsPick with Pink (NFL) Money lines, Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • Raw model: Bears net-EPA edge is +0.0707; 140 historical 2021-25 games in the +0.05 to +0.10 bucket won 67.9% at home.
    • Current six-game efficiency: Bears defense EPA allowed -0.1348 vs Patriots -0.0551; Bears points/drive 2.145 vs New England 1.962.
    • Trench evidence points strongly against Chicago: Bears DL 65 pressures versus Patriots OL 62 allowed, but New England DL 93 versus Bears OL 57 allowed.
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • Season-adjusted net EPA/play favors Chicago by 0.071: Bears +0.122 versus New England +0.051.
    • Chicago's defense leads the matchup by 0.080 EPA/play allowed; Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the expected starters.
    • Chicago's offense trails New England in success rate (.456 vs .480) and explosive-play rate (.101 vs .124).
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Chicago's PIT net EPA/play edge is +0.071 over New England (+0.1216 vs +0.0509).
    • Caleb Williams is officially active; weighted 2026 CPOE is about +6.9% versus Drake Maye's +2.7%.
    • New England's season success rate is better, 48.0% versus Chicago's 45.6%.
  4. Chicago Bears spread −3.52 models agree
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsKey Number, ProphetX NFL Ladder
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number
    • Pinnacle main Chicago -3 was -102 / New England +3 -108 at 2:28 PM; devigged Chicago cover probability is 49.3%.
    • Derived p_anchor for Chicago over 3.5 is 48.5%; EV_anchor is +4.5 points at 44¢.
    • Chicago's 3.5 rung is derived from Pinnacle -3, not directly matched; the ladder mismatch may contain information.
    ProphetX NFL Ladder
      • Most likely loss: Chicago wins by exactly three or fewer, including a New England outright win; -3.5 has no push protection.
    • Total points under 50.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Key Number Pairs
      Why 2 models like it
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Six-game current-season sample: New England offense -0.0042 EPA/play versus Chicago defense -0.1348; Chicago offense -0.0132 versus New England defense -0.0551.
      • Recent five-game form also leans lower: Patriots/Bears offense EPA/play is +0.0081/-0.0915 and defensive EPA allowed is -0.0529/-0.1747.
      • Most likely loss: Chicago's offense rebounds from its -0.0915 recent EPA/play and reaches the low 30s, forcing 51 or more.
      Key Number Pairs
      • Recent five-game scoring averages combine to 45.4 points: New England 27.2, Chicago 18.2.
      • To-date offense EPA/play is -0.0042 for New England and -0.0132 for Chicago; both defenses are negative in EPA allowed.
      • Caleb Williams is still listed Questionable; he is the Bears' QB1 on the Oct. 21 depth chart, but his latest injury designation is not a full clearance.
    • Under total 50.5High conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Power rating: 54.0% under; six-game scoring averages imply 47.7 points, while the offense-defense cross-matchup implies about 43.2.
      • Bears defense allows -0.1348 EPA/play and Patriots defense -0.0551; both suppress scoring against offenses with negative EPA/play.
      • Pinnacle exact-rung reference is over -114 / under +101, devigging to 48.3% under; model 54.0%, market 48.3%, gap 5.7p.
      • Patriots scored 45 points last week; explosive plays or short fields can overwhelm the defensive baseline.
    Show all 50 picks
    1. Chicago Bears exact margin of victory 15+Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

      Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle makes Chicago -3; the home-favored direction supports the blowout tail.
      • The 2016-2026 histogram puts 29.2% of games at 15+ margins; Chicago's historical share is 17.6%.
      • The key-number sanity check is stable: margins 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 and 14 comprise 44.5% of games.
      • The 17.6% bucket rate is unconditional; the current directional adjustment is approximate and model uncertainty is wide.
    2. Fourth quarter ends tiedLong shot
      +614%Won

      Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

      Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Direct fourth-quarter draw YES costs 0.14: a two-point contradiction with the handicap-implied draw.
      • 2022-25 isolated-quarter sample: 51 ties in 334 fourth quarters, 15.3%; approximate 95% interval 11.4%-19.1%.
      • The historical interval is wide enough that a two-point structural gap may not persist.
    3. Second half ends tiedLong shot
      +1150%Won

      Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US

      Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Direct second-half draw YES costs 0.08: a six-point contradiction with the same-window handicap ladder.
      • 2022-25 sample: 36 ties in 334 second halves, 10.8%; approximate 95% interval 7.5%-14.1%.
      • Second-half game state is path-dependent: halftime score and coaching adjustments can create a one-sided half.
    4. First half ends tiedLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 9¢ on Polymarket US

      Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Direct first-half draw YES costs 0.09: a three-point contradiction with the handicap-implied draw.
      • 2022-25 sample: 26 ties in 334 first halves, 7.8%; approximate 95% interval 4.9%-10.7%.
      • One scoring possession resolves the half away from a tie; the outcome is inherently discrete and high variance.
    5. Chicago Bears not first to score a touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

      Draw FirstDown 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opening-drive sample: Chicago produced 3 TDs in 17 games (17.6%); New England produced 5 TDs in 20 games (25.0%).
      • Points/TD asymmetry supports the fade: Chicago's six opening-drive scores included three field goals, while New England's six included five touchdowns.
      • The receiver of the opening kickoff is not published; possession uncertainty is explicitly widened rather than treated as known.
      • The 17- and 20-game samples mix seasons, and Chicago's 2026 opening-drive sample is only one charted drive.
    6. Game first-half total under 25.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Fitted first-half total is roughly 22, 24 points: current 6-game points-per-drive averages are Chicago 2.14 and New England 1.96, with 30.74/30.13 seconds per play.
      • Full-game total is 50.5 while the two half anchors are 25.5 and 26.5; that 52-point sum leaves the late scoring bump to the second half, not the first.
      • The square-root scaling argument matters: first-half variance scales with the square root of expected drives, not by linearly halving full-game variance, making 25.5 a high-side first-half threshold.
      • One explosive play, short field, or defensive touchdown can overwhelm a 25.5 threshold in a low-possession half.
    7. New England Patriots second-half spread +1.5
      +79%Won

      Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • full-game board centers Chicago -2.5 while 1H centers Chicago -2.5, leaving a 2H expectation much closer to pick'em than Chicago -1.5.
      • First-half drives are roughly half the game, but margin SD scales with square-root(drives), not linearly; halving the full-game margin does not justify repeating Chicago -2.5 in both halves.
      • To-date pace is 30.74 seconds/play for Chicago and 30.13 for New England, supporting a normal multi-drive half rather than a one-possession outlier as the base case.
      • Second-half results are conditioned on the halftime score; the pregame data cannot model those game states directly.
    8. D'Andre Swift over 2.5 receptions
      +72%Won

      Taken at −138 on FanDuel

      Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Swift's route snaps rose 11 to 21 to 22, with snap share climbing 35.5% to 58.4% over Weeks 4-6.
      • He recorded 2, 4, 4 receptions in those games, clearing 2.5 twice.
      • Kyle Monangai is officially out with thumb/toe injuries after missing practice, freeing backfield work.
      • Roschon Johnson still logged 20 and 12 route snaps in the last two games, so receiving work can remain split.
    9. Hunter Henry over 3.5 receptions
      +123%Won

      Taken at +123 on DraftKings

      Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 19 receptions through six games; 5, 3, 4 over the last three.
      • Chicago allowed tight ends 5/64 and 5/60 in two of its last three games.
      • T.J. Edwards is doubtful and Jack Sanborn is out, per the official injury report.
      • A.J. Brown is active after full practice, creating real target competition.
    10. Hunter Henry over 35.5 receiving yards
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on DraftKings

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 51.3 receiving yards per game across the last three: 48, 44, and 62.
      • 35.5 yards is 69% of the three-game average; DraftKings offers -113.
      • Chicago's recent defense has allowed -0.1747 EPA per play, a strong overall profile.
    11. First-half total NO over 26.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The full-game sharp total is 50.5, implying roughly 24.2 first-half points before script adjustment.
      • Recent first-half drive scoring cross-match projects about 20.0 points for this matchup: Chicago 9.8, New England 10.2.
      • Both teams' first-drive scoring rates were only 3 of 5 for Chicago and 2 of 5 for New England in their latest five games.
      • The 50.5 full-game total still supports a first-half baseline near 24 points, so one explosive drive can erase the edge.
    12. Chicago NO first-half spread over 2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Full-game Pinnacle spread stayed at Chicago -3.0 from the prior day through 2:52 PM PT.
      • Recent first-half drive data: Chicago averaged 10.8 points for and 7.4 allowed; New England averaged 13.0 for and 8.8 allowed.
      • Cross-matching those recent rates projects a near-even first half, about New England 10.2 to Chicago 9.8.
      • First-half margin volatility is wide; a roughly 9-point SD makes a field goal decisive.
    13. Rome Odunze over 3.5 receptions
      +124%Won

      Taken at +124 on FanDuel

      Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Weeks 4-6 role: 89.2%/36, 98.6%/49, 96.1%/44 snap share/route snaps; route access is stable.
      • Chicago averaged 75.3 plays and a 51.8% pass rate; project 75 plays, 39 dropbacks, and 3.8 Odunze receptions.
      • Bears -3 and Odunze's wins/losses split (3.5/3.0 receptions) support a neutral-to-positive script; forecast is dry with 5-mph wind.
      • Most likely loss: target competition holds Odunze near his 5.5-target season average and he finishes with three or fewer catches.
    14. Game under 50.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +100 on DraftKings

      Brewing NFL Totals 2.0Down 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Derived matchup total is about 45 points: 2026 PPD 2.145 Chicago plus 1.962 New England across roughly 11 expected drives.
      • Chicago and New England defenses allow -0.135 and -0.055 EPA per play; recent defensive figures are -0.122 and -0.039.
      • Success rates are only 45.6% and 48.0%, while explosive rates are 10.1% and 12.4%; both pace inputs are slow near 30 seconds per play.
      • Caleb Williams is returning from a hamstring absence, and his mobility could create explosive plays despite no stated restriction.
    15. New England Patriots under 23.5 team points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • fitted New England output is about 19.5, 20.5 points against Chicago's defense, 3, 4 points below the 23.5 board rung.
      • NE offense is near-neutral at -0.0042 EPA/play, while Chicago allows -0.1348 defensive EPA/play; the matchup favors suppression.
      • the board looks spread-split: 50.5 game total and Chicago -3 imply roughly 23.75 Patriots points, close to 23.5, rather than an independently modeled team total.
      • Turnovers or short fields can lift New England past 23.5 despite the matchup EPA gap.
    16. D'Andre Swift fantasy points over 15.8
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kyle Monangai is Out; Swift had 16 carries and 5 targets last week.
      • Swift owns 56.7% of Chicago's season RB snaps; the Bears imply 26.75 points.
      • First-six Bears pass rate is 51.2%; clear, 60°F and 4-mph conditions offer no weather downgrade.
      • Only two of six games cleared 15.8; touchdown variance drives much of the over.
    17. Total under 44.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on FanDuel

      Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • At 3:38 of Q1, score is Chicago 3, New England 0 after 18 scrimmage plays and two punts plus one field goal.
      • Live offensive efficiency is poor: NE -0.804 EPA/play and 30% success; CHI -0.271 EPA/play and 25% success.
      • The standard 44.5 under is -110 versus FanDuel's nearby 45.5 alternate under at -125; the extra point costs 15 cents, so the standard line is better risk-adjusted value.
      • Only 18 scrimmage plays: early-drive efficiency is a thin sample and can regress sharply.
    18. DeMario Douglas over 3.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +103 on DraftKings

      NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • p_raw 59.0%: six current-season games, 30 targets, 20 receptions and 93.6% PFF route rate across 146 routes.
      • p_market 47.3%: Pinnacle over +102 / under -123, devigged at the exact 3.5 line.
      • shrink_factor 0.50; p_final 53.2%; final edge +5.9 percentage points.
      • A.J. Brown is active and Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve, so the target-tree change cuts in opposite directions and remains uncertain.
    19. Rhamondre Stevenson over 2.5 receptions
      +80%Won

      Taken at −125 on DraftKings

      NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • p_raw 72.0%; p_market 52.4%; shrink_factor 0.50; p_final 62.2%; final edge +9.8 percentage points.
      • Direct 2026 receiving data shows 15 receptions on 19 targets across six PFF-charted games, a 78.9% catch rate.
      • Exact 2.5-reception market is posted at DraftKings with a live -125 over price.
      • The latest game-specific report carries an older questionable designation; the live prop participant feed lists him Active, but late status can still change.
    20. Luther Burden III over 58.5 receiving yards
      +91%Won

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • p_raw 64.0%; p_market 49.6%; shrink_factor 0.50; p_final 56.8%; final edge +7.2 percentage points.
      • Six direct 2026 games: 4 overs, 43 targets, 31 receptions, 361 yards; 92.7% PFF route participation.
      • Exact 58.5-yard market is posted at DraftKings, with both sides priced for a same-line probability anchor.
      • A 58.5-yard line is sensitive to one explosive catch; his direct yardage sample is only six games.
    21. Colston Loveland first touchdown scorerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +1200 on FanDuel

      NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Chicago has converted 13 of 25 red-zone possessions into touchdowns; Loveland owns 13 red-zone targets and 6 inside-10 targets.
      • Loveland has an 85.5% snap share and 200 route snaps through six games, providing a stable, concentrated role.
      • New England has allowed 9 touchdowns on 18 opponent red-zone possessions; Chicago's 50.5 total and -3 spread imply strong scoring access.
      • Loveland has only one 2026 red-zone touchdown; 13 targets do not guarantee goal-line conversion.
    22. New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears under 50.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +100 on DraftKings

      NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current opponent-adjusted EPA is modest offensively: New England -0.0042/play and Chicago -0.0132/play.
      • Defensive EPA allowed is strong on both sides: New England -0.0551 and Chicago -0.1348.
      • Pace is slow at 30.13, 30.74 seconds per play; 10-game points/drive are only 1.727 and 2.066.
      • Chicago has T.J. Edwards out and multiple secondary questionables, creating a path to explosive passing gains.
    23. New England Patriots first team touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • NE converted 4 of 8 road red-zone trips (50%); Chicago's defense has allowed 10 of 15 red-zone trips to score (66.7%).
      • Chicago converted only 4 of 15 home red-zone trips (26.7%); New England's defense has allowed 9 of 18 (50%).
      • Drake Maye is the declared QB1 with 97.1% season snap share and a current official full-practice report.
      • The coin toss and scripted opening-drive plan are unknown; first touchdown is inherently high variance.
    24. Rhamondre Stevenson over 0.5 touchdowns
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 0.63 snap share and a current RB1/workhorse label; no player is ahead of him in the declared backfield order.
      • New England has produced 10 touchdowns on 18 red-zone trips through six games (55.6% team conversion).
      • Stevenson owns 71 carries and 2 rushing touchdowns; the usage base is materially stronger than his modest touchdown count.
      • Only 18 Patriots red-zone trips create a small opportunity sample, and TreVeyon Henderson still holds a 32.2% season snap share.
    25. New England Patriots under 50.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +100 on DraftKings

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season scoring blend is 43.2 points: NE 22.7 scored/18.8 allowed, CHI 25.0/19.8.
      • Last-five team scoring averages sum to 43.4, seven points below the posted total.
      • To-date points per drive are 1.96 NE and 2.14 CHI, with moderate 30.13/30.74 seconds per play.
      • Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed active; Chicago scored 31 last week and New England scored 45 two weeks ago.
    26. Chicago Bears −3.5
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels are 3 versus 3; raw thin-side stake exceeds the few-hundred-dollar robustness rule, but this is not full corroboration.
      • Backing Chicago Bears -3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • Book-level count does not corroborate: Chicago 3 versus New England 3; one of three measures is neutral.
    27. A.J. Brown under 69.5 receiving yards
      +73%Won

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 26.5 receiving-yard average across Brown’s first two Patriots games is 61.9% below the 69.5 line.
      • Brown has stayed below this number in both games; his latest 27 yards came despite 10 targets.
      • Chicago ranks 3rd in 2026 defensive EPA/play allowed at -0.135, a strong matchup for the under.
      • The sample is only two games after Brown changed teams, so role and chemistry remain uncertain.
    28. First-half total over 24.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rest is even at 4 days apiece; the total is driven by possession quality rather than a fatigue mismatch.
      • Average pace is 30.43 seconds per play, with Chicago at 30.74 and New England at 30.1267; both PROE rates are positive.
      • Chicago's points per drive is 2.1446 and New England's is 1.9619, producing a 4.1065 combined baseline before first-half scripting.
      • The projected 25.1 points is only 0.6 above the 24.5 rung; this is a thin lean, not a recommended position.
    29. Chicago Bears first-half spread over 2.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Chicago defensive EPA is -0.1348/play versus New England's -0.0551, a 0.0797/play gap.
      • Chicago leads points per drive 2.1446 to 1.9619; pace also leads 30.74 to 30.1267.
      • Pinnacle's directly comparable first-half spread is Chicago -2.5 at -107; model projects Chicago -2.8.
      • Equal rest removes the brief's strongest first-half lever.
    30. Chicago Bears first-half winner
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rest is 4 days for Chicago and 4 for New England; no short-week distortion enters the first-half script.
      • Chicago's defensive EPA is -0.1348/play versus New England's -0.0551, a 0.0797/play defensive edge.
      • Chicago leads points per drive 2.1446 to 1.9619; pace is 30.74 versus 30.1267 and PROE is 0.0611 versus 0.0468.
      • New England has the better success rate, 0.480 to 0.4557, and slightly better offensive EPA, -0.0042 to -0.0132.
    31. TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdownLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +370 on DraftKings

      TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 24.0% scenario-model anytime-TD probability vs 21.3% DraftKings break-even; fair odds +317.
      • Henderson has 49 carries for 194 yards across five games and a 33.2% season snap share.
      • His 43.8% run rate is the strongest among New England’s primary backs, creating a genuine rushing path.
      • Henderson has only 1 rushing TD and a 27.4% route-participation rate, so goal-line work may stay with Stevenson.
    32. DeMario Douglas first touchdownLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +2000 on DraftKings

      TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 6.5% scenario-model first-TD probability vs 4.8% DraftKings break-even; fair odds +1438.
      • 30 targets and 3 receiving TDs through six games; he saw 8 targets last week.
      • New England’s 1.96 points per drive is supported by a 50.5 game total, preserving multi-score paths.
      • First-TD outcomes are highly dispersed; another Patriot can capture the opening red-zone touch.
    33. Rhamondre Stevenson over 11.5 rushing attempts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +104 on DraftKings

      Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 13, 13, and 14 carries in his last three games.
      • Snap share remained 60.3% in Week 6; TreVeyon Henderson had only 7 carries and 23.5% of snaps.
      • Chicago has allowed 31 and 23 points in its last two games, supporting a competitive offensive workload.
      • Chicago's defense has been strong overall, with negative defensive EPA allowed in four of six games.
    34. Drake Maye under 249.5 passing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −113 on DraftKings

      Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Maye averages 243.8 passing yards this season (1,463 in six games), below the 249.5-yard line.
      • Chicago produced -0.2452 defensive EPA per play in Week 6 and -0.0508 in Week 4.
      • Tuesday's report has Maye full, but Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker DNP while Morgan Moses was limited.
      • A.J. Brown could play through the ankle and provide Maye the explosive matchup this under needs to avoid.
    35. A.J. Brown under 70.5 receiving yards
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      Second WindDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Two Patriots games: 6 catches, 53 yards on 14 targets (26.5 yards per game).
      • His latest route role was 34 of 68 snaps (50%), below a full-time receiver workload.
      • Chicago's Week 6 defensive EPA allowed was -0.2452 per play, a difficult recent defensive signal.
      • Brown is an elite talent, and 14 targets in two games can convert into a long touchdown.
    36. DeMario Douglas over 27.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −111 on DraftKings

      Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Snap share rose 46.1% → 49.3% → 58.8% over the last three games.
      • Route snaps rose 23 → 24 → 26; targets climbed 3 → 5 → 8.
      • Receiving yards rose 15 → 65 → 86, a 55.3-yard three-game average.
      • A.J. Brown is newly listed questionable; his availability could materially siphon targets.
    37. Cole Kmet over 8.5 receiving yards
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 63% snap share across the last three games; latest usage rose to 74%, clearing the 55% opportunity gate.
      • The 8.5-yard market line was unchanged from the 10/20 opening snapshot despite the projection sitting roughly 26% higher.
      • Route snaps swung 24 to 8 to 15 over the last three, making the opportunity signal noisy.
    38. D'Andre Swift over 14.5 rushing attempts
      +88%Won

      Taken at −114 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5: over 14.5 rushing attempts in 4/5 games (80%); no pushes.
      • over in 6/10 (60%); 2026 season over in 5/6 (83.3%).
      • Swift averages 15.7 carries this season, 8.3% above the line, with a 56.7% snap share.
      • The L10 gate clears exactly at 60%, so the historical support is not broad.
    39. Rome Odunze under 3.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −151 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5: under 3.5 receptions in 4/5 games (80%); no pushes.
      • under in 8/10 (80%); 2026 season under in 5/6 (83.3%).
      • Odunze has 83.5% season snap share and 33 targets, supporting stable participation.
      • Season average is 3.33 receptions, only 4.8% below the line; the projection gap is not large.
    40. A.J. Brown under 5.5 receptions
      +73%Won

      Taken at −137 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5: under 5.5 receptions in 4/5 games (80%); no pushes.
      • under in 6/10 (60%); 2026 season under in 2/2 (100%).
      • Recent comparable average is 4.4 receptions, 20% below the line; he has 14 targets in two NE games.
      • Only two games in Brown's New England role; prior Eagles usage is not fully comparable.
    41. New England Patriots spread +11.5
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, current live references show Chicago -4.5 at Pinnacle, -5.5 at DraftKings, and -7.5 at FanDuel, while ProphetX offers New England +11.5.
      • New England's first 10 offensive plays produced -0.804 EPA/play, but the exchange gives the Patriots four to seven more points of cushion than the live sportsbook spread range.
      • The 10-0 score is early (1:38 of Q1); a low-scoring Patriots response still keeps this spread live and is directionally coherent with the existing under position.
      • Most likely loss: Chicago sustains its early lead while New England's offense remains inefficient, producing a final margin above 11.5.
    42. New England Patriots to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • own estimate is 43.0% versus 40.98¢ implied by +144; the 2.0-point gap is the claimed edge.
      • New England's six-game regular-season success rate is 48.0% versus Chicago's 45.6%; offensive EPA/play is -0.004 versus -0.013.
      • Recent form favors New England: 4-1 over its last five (+5.2 margin) versus Chicago 3-2 (+1.8); that is why the home premium looks overstated.
      • Most likely loss: Chicago's defense has allowed -0.135 EPA/play versus New England's -0.055, and that home defensive edge forces the Patriots into a low-efficiency game.
    43. New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears under 51 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • regular-season venue splits through Week 6 show Chicago averaging 17.7 home points and New England 15.0 road points.
      • Chicago's home defense is -0.250 defensive EPA/play; New England's road offense is -0.090 EPA/play, supporting a mid-40s projection.
      • The one-leg ticket avoids any parlay tax; the half-point cushion over the 50.5 reference total is useful, though not a same-line sharp reference.
      • Most likely loss: Chicago's explosive plays and New England's road defensive weakness create short fields and push the game above 51.
    44. Chicago Bears spread −2.5
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Chicago's defense is -0.1348 EPA/play to date versus New England's -0.0551, plus home field.
      • NFL.com confirms Caleb Williams cleared his hamstring issue and starts; the board still offers the main -2.5 rung.
      • Pinnacle's captured main number was Chicago -3 at +103; ProphetX's -2.5 is the more favorable spread.
      • New England has the better offense-to-date EPA (-0.0042 versus Chicago -0.0132), success rate (48.0% versus 45.6%), and explosive rate (12.4% versus 10.1%).

    Questions

    Who won Patriots vs. Bears?

    The Bears won 30–24 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.

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