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Rams vs. RaidersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAllegiant Stadium
Rams2–4
35–21Final
Raiders3–3
Score by period
Team1234T
LAR7210735
LV3301521

Top model pick, graded

Won

Third quarter ends tied 16¢

Why Level Terms likes it: Rams +1.5 probability 0.76 minus Rams -1.5 probability 0.51 implies a 0.25 draw.

Level TermsUp 76% return this season · 53 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 32-22 on this game · +25% return

  1. Los Angeles Rams spread −3.54 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsDrift, Sunday Board Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 51.0%; Rams net EPA +0.0437 versus Raiders +0.0210, with a .5009 versus .4548 success-rate edge.
    • Rams explosive rate is .1225 versus .1140; last-five scoring margin is +3.4 versus -2.8, with equal seven-day rest.
    • Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins are expected, not officially confirmed; Puka Nacua and Trent McDuffie remain questionable.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Rams moneyline -162 (61.83¢) conflicts with Rams -3.5 at +111 (47.39¢) on the same live board.
    • Six-game efficiency: Rams defense allows -0.0402 EPA/play versus Raiders +0.0084; both teams have six current-season games.
    • Most likely loss: Raiders' offense has the better matchup signal (+0.0696 EPA/play against Rams defense), while Rams offense-versus-Raiders defense is -0.0049.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • EPA Strategy Score: Los Angeles Rams 0.432 vs Las Vegas -0.342; edge +0.774.
    • Primary EPA edge is +0.507, the largest qualifying primary edge on the slate.
    • The Rams' offensive rush EPA is slightly below league average, so the edge is pass- and defense-led.
    Long Way Home
    • through nine games, the Rams lead the Raiders by 0.0263 EPA/play offensively (+0.0325 vs +0.0062) and 0.0613 defensively (-0.0538 vs +0.0075 allowed).
    • Los Angeles is 5-4 with a +4.56 average scoring margin; Las Vegas is 4-5 with a -1.89 margin, supporting a Rams one-score road-favorite script.
    • Most likely loss: Las Vegas uses home field, Kirk Cousins, and Brock Bowers to keep the game within 3.5 or win outright.
  2. Los Angeles Rams −3.53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    3 modelsNFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model, EPA Mismatch +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    • Model fair line: Rams -5.0, a 1.5-point advantage at the current number.
    • Rams PFF overall grade 79.2 vs Raiders 69.3; defense grade advantage is 71.6 to 57.2.
    • Puka Nacua remains questionable, while Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett are confirmed out for Los Angeles.
    EPA Mismatch
    • My synthesis makes Los Angeles roughly -6.5; the current -3.5 spread leaves about a three-point matchup edge.
    • Season net EPA/play favors the Rams by 0.0227: LAR +0.0437 net versus LV +0.0210.
    • Los Angeles has two confirmed starters ruled out, Nate Landman and Alaric Jackson; Las Vegas has one, Jonah Laulu.
    Number Earned
    • 55.5% fair cover probability, approximately -124 fair odds, versus DraftKings +100.
    • Rams season success rate .5009 versus Raiders .4548; Rams explosive-play rate .1225 versus .1140.
    • Puka Nacua is officially questionable with a calf injury, and neither team's starting lineup is confirmed.
  3. Los Angeles Rams to win3 models agree
    +57%Won

    Taken at −174 on FanDuel

    3 modelshigh-confidence main markets, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • Confirmed starters: Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua for Los Angeles; Kirk Cousins for Las Vegas.
    • Rams lead recent five-game EPA/play offense, +0.0615 to +0.0293, and defense, -0.0755 allowed to +0.0701.
    • Las Vegas has the stronger season offensive EPA/play and points-per-drive profile, plus home field.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Rams defense leads the current-season EPA comparison by 0.0486 points/play (-0.0402 allowed vs Raiders +0.0084).
    • Full personnel gate: Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins are confirmed starters; both teams have six completed games in the feature sample.
    • Raiders have the home field and slightly better offensive EPA (+0.0294 vs Rams +0.0035).
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • Rams defense EPA allowed is -0.040 versus Las Vegas at +0.008; success rate is 0.501 versus 0.455.
    • Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins are both confirmed starters; both teams have seven days rest.
    • Puka Nacua is questionable, while the Rams are missing Trent McDuffie and have Myles Garrett and Kobie Turner on IR.
  4. Los Angeles Rams −2.52 models agree
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Global Rams -2.5 is 57.5¢ while the matching US contract is executable at 57¢.
    • Week/month lookups returned the same aggregate record rather than a separate recent subsample.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Rams 3 versus Raiders 3; neutral corroboration, so two of three measures agree and both raw stakes are substantial.
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent sharp confirmation or paid ticket/handle data supports the queue.
  5. Game total under 48.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    2 modelsBrewing NFL Totals 2.0, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0
    • 46.7-point dual-model midpoint: season PPD/pace projects 48.1, recent PPD/efficiency 45.3; both lean under 48.5.
    • Rams defense allows -0.0402 EPA/play; Raiders' recent offense is -0.0278 EPA/play, weakening sustained scoring.
    • Season PPD/pace output is only 0.4 points below the line; the edge depends on the recent-efficiency adjustment.
    Long Way Home
    • Six-game EPA profile: Rams defense allows -0.0402 EPA/play; Raiders allow +0.0084, a meaningful matchup-quality gap.
    • Rams and Raiders average 22.5 and 27.0 points; my defense-adjusted projection is 46, 47 total points.
    • The Raiders average 27.0 points, and the Rams’ Myles Garrett is out, weakening the defensive under case.
  6. Total points under 48.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number Pairs, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number Pairs
    • Key-number density: under 48.5 is 49.02¢ versus under 49 at 51.92¢; the extra half-point costs only 2.90 probability points near the 47-49 cluster.
    • Recent efficiency supports restraint: Rams offense +0.0548 EPA/play, Raiders offense -0.0278; both defenses allowed negative recent EPA/play (-0.0221 Rams, -0.0367 Raiders).
    • Most likely loss: explosive-play variance turns this into a 49-point shootout, especially with both teams' recent scoring environment volatile.
    Resting Money
    • Both sides have 3 book levels; the two core measures agree, and the thin side clears the few-hundred-dollar robustness check.
    • Book-level count is tied 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the read.
Show all 44 picks
  1. Fourth quarter ends tiedLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams +1.5 probability 0.61 minus Rams -1.5 probability 0.40 implies a 0.21 draw.
    • The direct fourth-quarter draw contract is 0.14, a 0.07 structural gap.
    • Fourth-quarter winner quotes sum 1.02; all three winner contracts have both sides quoted.
    • No independent sharp period reference; the venue may be internally inconsistent rather than mispriced.
  2. Third quarter ends tiedLong shot
    +525%Won

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams +1.5 probability 0.76 minus Rams -1.5 probability 0.51 implies a 0.25 draw.
    • The direct third-quarter draw contract is 0.16, a 0.09 structural gap.
    • Third-quarter winner quotes sum 0.98; all three winner contracts have both sides quoted.
    • No independent sharp period reference; this is a structural venue mismatch, not a modeled fair price.
  3. Second quarter ends tiedLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams +1.5 probability 0.74 minus Rams -1.5 probability 0.52 implies a 0.22 draw.
    • The direct second-quarter draw contract is 0.13, a 0.09 structural gap.
    • Second-quarter winner quotes sum 1.02; all three winner contracts have both sides quoted.
    • No independent sharp period reference; the discrepancy could be a venue quote error rather than value.
  4. Second half ends tiedLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 7¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams +1.5 probability 0.68 minus Rams -1.5 probability 0.50 implies a 0.18 draw.
    • The direct second-half draw contract is 0.07, a 0.11 structural gap.
    • Second-half winner quotes sum 1.02; all three winner contracts have both sides quoted.
    • No independent sharp period reference; the venue may correct one stale quote before execution.
  5. Las Vegas Raiders spread −3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Las Vegas has the home setting plus better current offensive EPA (0.0294 vs 0.0035) and points per drive (2.3494 vs 2.0544); the Rams are without Myles Garrett and Kobie Turner.
    • Most likely loss: Las Vegas wins by three or fewer or loses; Rams defensive EPA form is better (-0.0402 allowed versus Las Vegas +0.0084).
  6. Los Angeles Rams spread 3.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
  7. Los Angeles Rams first-half winner
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even: Rams 7 days, Raiders 7 days; no rest-gap boost, so the edge must come from matchup quality.
    • Rams defensive EPA allowed is -0.0402 versus Raiders +0.0084; Rams success rate is .5009 versus .4548.
    • Pace is nearly even (29.68 Rams, 29.35 Raiders), but Rams PROE is .1723 versus .1053, supporting more scripted pass aggression.
    • The sharp reference is two-way while Kalshi separately prices a first-half tie at 9.5%; that structural difference makes the comparison imperfect.
  8. Tre Tucker anytime touchdownLong shot
    +330%Won

    Taken at +330 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(any TD) 29%; +330 implies 23.3%.
    • Tucker has 3 TDs on 35 targets, including 2 last week, while remaining a confirmed starter.
    • His 371 receiving yards and 1.96 PFF yards per route indicate real downfield scoring access.
    • Two recent touchdowns may overstate his sustainable finishing rate.
  9. Game second-half total over 20.5Favorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game total is 49.5 while the listed 1H 23.5 plus 2H 20.5 sums to only 44.0, a 5.5-point internal-coherence gap.
    • To-date points per drive are 2.35 for Las Vegas and 2.05 for Los Angeles; pace is 29.35 and 29.68 seconds per play.
    • The full-game anchor and 23.5 first-half rung imply a second-half expectation near 25 points before the usual late-game scoring bump.
    • The 2H ladder is thin versus the 1H ladder; the 5.5-point mismatch could be a stale or poorly traded half quote.
  10. Las Vegas Raiders second-half spread +4.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: INTERNAL COHERENCE.
    • Sharp full-game anchor is Rams -3.5; the first-half board centers Rams -2.5, leaving roughly Rams -1.0 for the second half.
    • The Rams -4.5 second-half quote is out of step with both anchors; Raiders +4.5 is the coherent side.
    • Second-half outcomes condition on halftime score, turnovers, and coaching adjustments that to-date averages cannot fully model.
  11. Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiders first-half total over 23.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; edge class: PROJECTION with an INTERNAL COHERENCE check.
    • To-date points per drive are 2.325 for Los Angeles and 2.328 for Las Vegas; observed 2026 drive rates imply roughly 11.7 combined drives in a half, supporting a first-half expectation around 25 points.
    • The square-root relationship matters: first-half total variance scales with the square root of drives, not by simply halving full-game variance; the market should not treat 23.5 as a symmetric half of 48.5.
    • A 48.5 full-game anchor can still reconcile through a lower first half and a materially higher second half; halves are not interchangeable.
  12. Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 first-half spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; edge class: PROJECTION plus INTERNAL COHERENCE.
    • The full-game board makes Los Angeles Rams roughly a 3.5-point favorite; a first-half mean nearer 2 points does not justify Rams -2.5 at even money.
    • First-half margin variance should scale with the square root of drives, not linearly with half the game; that keeps the Raiders within 2.5 more often than a naive halving model.
    • A Rams efficiency edge can create an early multi-score game before halftime, especially against Las Vegas's +0.0701 defensive EPA allowed.
  13. Tyler Higbee over 37.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −109 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 57.3 receiving yards per game over his last three; the line is only 65% of that recent average.
    • His snap share rose from 65.5% to 67.1% to 82.8%, with 31-43 routes in the span.
    • Las Vegas carries a 37.0 coverage grade and allowed +0.228 defensive EPA per play over its last three.
    • Puka Nacua is confirmed active but questionable with a calf issue; his role can materially redirect targets.
  14. Tre Tucker over 40.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60.7 receiving yards per game over his last three; he cleared 40.5 in all three.
    • Snap share held at 66.7%-75.0%-69.7%, with 34-46 routes each game.
    • Raiders pass rate was 67.1% over the last three; +3.5 spread favors a trailing, pass-heavy script.
    • Rams coverage grade is 75.5, so this is not a soft matchup by season film grade.
  15. Los Angeles Rams spread −7.5Long shot
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams defense allows -0.0402 EPA/play versus Las Vegas +0.0084, with a .5009 versus .4548 success-rate edge; a +0.75-point adjustment gives p_model 37.7%.
    • Most likely loss: Los Angeles wins by 1-7 points or loses; -7.5 has no push protection.
  16. Los Angeles Rams first-half spread under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp spread is Rams -3.5, with no point move since the earliest captured quote.
    • Rams scored on 0 of 6 recent opening drives; Las Vegas scored on 4 of 6.
    • A first-half margin model using 9-point SD and the opening-script adjustment makes Rams-over-2.5 about 44%, so NO is 56%.
    • Six-game opening-drive samples are noisy and may not carry into this matchup.
  17. Ashton Jeanty anytime touchdown scorer
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on BetMGM

    Run First & Anytime TD QuantDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 64.3% red-zone rushing share over the last four games (9 of 14 attempts).
    • Confirmed starting RB; lineup and sportsbook participant feeds were current at 12:05 PM PDT.
    • Rams allow +0.0138 rushing EPA/play, third-worst of 32 teams, with a 47.2% rush success rate allowed.
    • The 14-attempt red-zone sample is small and includes only rushing chances, not total touchdown opportunity.
  18. Las Vegas Raiders exact margin 7-14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Margin LumpsNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's devigged spread centers the game at Rams -3.5, with no quarterback carrying a questionable designation.
    • A smooth 13-point margin curve gives roughly 13% raw mass to Raiders by 7-14; reweighting key numbers 7, 10 and 14 lifts my estimate to about 23%.
    • The bucket ladder is coherent: Raiders by 7-14 plus 15+ is 22¢, matching the Polymarket Raiders -6.5 spread side at about 21¢.
    • Puka Nacua and Trent McDuffie remain questionable, so late skill-position news could move the margin distribution.
  19. Game total over 50.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team-total rungs sum to 51 (Rams 27.5 + Raiders 23.5); the selected 50.5 is 0.5 below that sum.
    • Pace baseline is 29.6833 seconds/play for Los Angeles and 29.3467 for Las Vegas across six games each, with seven rest days apiece and no neutral-site adjustment.
    • ESPN game-day availability is confirmed: Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins start; Puka Nacua is active as a confirmed starter despite a Questionable designation.
    • Most likely loss: 50 or fewer points after stalled red-zone drives or ordinary efficiency regression despite the pace/pass-rate profile.
  20. Las Vegas Raiders under 13.5 first-half team pointsFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
    • Rams allowed 7.56 first-half points per game; Raiders scored 11.33, blending near 9.4 points.
    • Game features show Raiders +0.0294 EPA/play against Rams -0.0402 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Raiders averaged 11.33 first-half points; an early touchdown plus field goal threatens the number.
  21. Los Angeles Rams under 27.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: INTERNAL COHERENCE + PROJECTION; reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE.
    • Rams average 2.054 points per drive; their +0.0035 offensive EPA/play versus Las Vegas's +0.0084 defensive EPA allowed is not a 28-point matchup.
    • At 29.68 seconds per play, a points-per-drive translation centers the Rams around roughly 23, 25 points before touchdown variance.
    • Puka Nacua remains questionable and no official lineup is posted; a healthy Nacua or unusually efficient Stafford passing day can push this over.
  22. Los Angeles Rams winning margin 1 to 6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last five: Rams offense +0.0615 EPA/play vs Raiders +0.0293; Rams defense allowed -0.0755 vs +0.0694.
    • Season-to-date EPA context still favors the Rams defense: -0.0402 defensive EPA allowed vs Raiders +0.0084.
    • Success rate is 49.9% to 44.7% over the last five; the 5.2-point gap reinforces the Rams side.
    • The market's Rams moneyline is only about 61%, so a 33% band estimate depends on a narrower margin distribution than the market.
  23. Game total under 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on BetMGM

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live state is 7-0 Rams with 3:41 left in Q1; Raiders drive remains unfinished at the LAR 14.
    • Only 7 points through 12 minutes; live EPA is -0.055 LAR and -0.926 LV across 17 scored plays.
    • Pregame form is moderate: LAR +0.0615 offensive EPA/play, LV +0.0293, with both teams near 29 seconds/play.
    • Raiders are already in the red zone; the ongoing drive can immediately erase the under cushion.
  24. Matthew Stafford over 267.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Stafford cleared 267.5 in 4 of 6 2026 games; no pushes.
    • His last-five average is 327.6 passing yards, 60.1 above this line.
    • Raiders carry a 57.2 overall defense grade and 37.0 coverage grade; game is indoors.
    • Raiders can shorten the game with Jeanty and a successful ground plan; game script could suppress attempts.
  25. Los Angeles Rams exact margin of victory 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's main spread is Rams -3.5 (+107), establishing the favored direction.
    • The 1-6 bucket contains key margins 3, 4 and 6; generic smoothing can underweight that clustered scoring mass.
    • Only 2.2 percentage points of raw probability edge before fees; this is a thin moonshot edge.
  26. Kirk Cousins 2+ passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cousins is the confirmed QB1 with 97.6% season snap share; backup Aidan O'Connell is officially Out.
    • Live at 6:25 of Q1, Las Vegas has 8 yards, five pass attempts, zero red-zone trips and zero passing touchdowns.
    • Las Vegas entered with 12 red-zone scores on 23 trips; the Rams had allowed 11 on 22, supporting a restrained multi-score passing estimate.
    • Only 6:25 has elapsed; three-plus quarters remain for two passing touchdowns.
  27. Los Angeles Rams first touchdown
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams have 15 red-zone scores on 24 trips (62.5%) through six games.
    • Raiders have allowed 17 scores on 23 opponent red-zone trips (73.9%).
    • Kyren Williams is confirmed active and carries a 70.7% snap share; goal-line-role judgment is derived from this workhorse proxy, not a single goal-line field.
    • Puka Nacua remains game-day Questionable despite a confirmed active lineup, changing red-zone target distribution.
  28. Kyren Williams over 0.5 touchdowns
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams produced 15 scores on 24 red-zone trips (62.5%) through six games; Las Vegas allowed 17 on 23 (73.9%).
    • Kyren owns a 70.7% offensive snap share and a workhorse label; Blake Corum is at 27.3% with a committee label.
    • Lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; Puka Nacua is questionable and could change Rams red-zone distribution.
  29. Ashton Jeanty rushing yards under 51.5
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last five games: 42.2 rushing yards per game, 18.1% below the 51.5 line.
    • Jeanty has stayed under this number in three of five games and finished with 22 and 27 yards most recently.
    • Rams' pregame defense shows -0.0402 EPA allowed per play, a strong matchup against the run.
    • Las Vegas could create a positive game script at home against a Rams defense missing key defenders.
  30. Matthew Stafford pass attempts over 35.0
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last five games: 44.8 attempts per game, 28% above the 35.0 line.
    • Raiders have allowed +0.0084 defensive EPA per play to date, a favorable matchup for sustained drives.
    • Stafford is an officially confirmed starter with seven days of rest.
    • Rams could lead early and shift toward Kyren Williams' rushing workload.
  31. Game total over 72.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • season-to-date pace/PROE/PPD inputs imply roughly 50 total points and about a 5% chance of exceeding 72.5.
    • This is a true full-game slug (no quarter, half, or team-total tag), 23 points above the 49.5 sharp central total.
    • Weather is benign: 70°F, 6 mph gust, zero precipitation, so no wind-based compression of the upper tail. 25% Kelly calculates to about 0.4% bankroll.
    • Tail uncertainty is extreme: pace/PROE models are much less reliable 23 points above the center.
  32. Los Angeles Rams first-half spread over 2.5Favorite
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rams lead 7-0 at 6:25 of Q1; the live state already clears the 2.5-point threshold.
    • Rams lead success rate .5009 to .4548 and defensive EPA allowed is better by 0.0486 per play.
    • Rest is neutral at seven days each, but Rams' +0.0461 success-rate gap and +0.069? EPA structure support preserving a three-point halftime margin.
    • The 76% same-rung estimate is derived from the live 7-0 state and baseline efficiency, not a directly posted sharp 2.5-point contract.
  33. First-half total over 24.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even at 7 days each; the case must come from efficiency and scripted passing, not preparation.
    • PPD is 2.0544 for Los Angeles and 2.3494 for Las Vegas; combined baseline is 4.4038 points per drive, with pace nearly identical at 29.68 and 29.35 seconds per play.
    • Rams defensive EPA allowed is -0.0402 versus Las Vegas +0.0084, and Las Vegas has the higher PPD; that can produce a slower Rams-controlled script.
  34. Los Angeles Rams over Las Vegas Raiders
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair spread: Rams -5.2, a 1.7-point edge over the consensus -3.5.
    • Rams hold a weighted offensive EPA/play edge of roughly 0.18 and defensive EPA/play edge of roughly 0.06 after 2025/2026 weighting.
    • Rams' 2026 OL pass-block grade is 65.7 versus Las Vegas 57.7; 2025 sack totals were 17 versus 47.
    • Matthew Stafford's 2026 PFF passing grade fell to 64.1 with a 4.2% turnover-worthy-play rate; Cousins has been steadier this season.
  35. Puka Nacua under 90 receiving yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Skip Bayless TrackerDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • RealSkipBayless feed item on 10/25: “Puka is playing but running very carefully.”
    • NFL.com confirms Nacua is active after a calf injury; the live participant feed lists him as a confirmed starter.
    • The 90-yard rung is close to market-neutral, giving Skip’s limitation read a clear, auditable translation.
  36. Tre Tucker over 3.5 receptions
    +106%Won

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 over 3.5: 5/5 (100%); L10: 7/10 (70%); 2026 season: 5/6 (83.3%).
    • Tucker has 24 receptions on 35 targets this season, averages 4.0 receptions, and is a confirmed starter.
    • The Raiders pass at a 58.9% season rate and average 2.349 points per drive; Trent McDuffie is officially out for Los Angeles.
    • The perfect L5 is a small, streak-sensitive sample; the broader L10 is materially weaker at 7/10.
  37. Kyren Williams under 15.5 rushing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 under 15.5: 3/5 (60%); L10: 7/10 (70%); 2026 season: 4/6 (66.7%).
    • Williams averages 13.3 carries across six games; confirmed RB1 with a 70.7% snap share and workhorse role.
    • The Rams pass at a 62.7% season rate; recent carry counts are 10, 16, 16, 15, 12, 11.
    • Two of the last five games reached 16 carries; a close script or goal-line sequence can beat the under.
  38. Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raiders average +0.0294 offensive EPA/play over six games versus Rams +0.0035.
    • Rams' net efficiency edge is only 0.0228 EPA/play; home Las Vegas gets the key +3.5 margin.
    • Pinnacle also posts Raiders +3.5, at -118; ProphetX offers -112.
    • Rams defense allows -0.0402 EPA/play versus Raiders' +0.0084, a substantial matchup disadvantage.

Questions

Who won Rams vs. Raiders?

The Rams won 35–21 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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