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Broncos vs. CardinalsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalState Farm Stadium
Broncos4-2
30–16Final
Cardinals2-4
Score by period
Team1234T
DEN6714330
ARI067316

Top model pick, graded

Won

Fourth quarter tie 14¢

Why Level Terms likes it: Denver +1.5 at 0.65 minus Denver -1.5 at 0.47 implies a 0.18 draw probability.

Level TermsUp 76% return this season · 53 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 24-19 on this game · +26% return

  1. Arizona Cardinals spread +4.52 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, NFL Sharp Edge
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Arizona offense -0.06 EPA/play and .461 success rate exceed Denver's -0.14 and .390; home field offsets Denver's defense.
    • Denver's defense allows -0.04 EPA/play versus Arizona's +0.09; its pass rush can control this matchup.
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Arizona owns the offensive EPA edge: -0.06 versus Denver's -0.14 per play.
    • Arizona leads success rate 46.1% to 39.0% and points per drive 1.91 to 1.61.
    • Denver's defense is strong at -0.04 EPA allowed per play; Arizona's is poor at +0.09.
  2. Denver Broncos −4.52 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • Denver defensive-front win rate 12.7% versus Arizona's 8.9%; Denver's 72.7 front grade is materially stronger.
    • Denver allows 49 OL pressures versus Arizona's 55 and has 2 OL sacks allowed versus Arizona's 7.
    • Denver's pass-block grade is only 61.2, below the 64.6 NFL mean; pressure can still erase the edge.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Denver's defense is -0.04 EPA/play to date versus Arizona's +0.09 allowed, a 0.14 EPA/play matchup advantage.
    • Denver has 10 rest days versus Arizona's 7; Denver is 4-1 over its last five while Arizona is 1-4.
    • Arizona has home field and a stronger recent down-to-down profile; a one-score game is the likeliest failure path.
  3. Denver Broncos spread −4.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSunday Board Pairs, NFL Spread Detective
    Why 2 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • ProphetX prices Denver moneyline -205 (67.21¢) but Denver -4.5 at +101 (49.75¢) on the same board.
    • Six-game efficiency context favors Denver's defense: -0.04 EPA/play allowed versus Arizona's +0.09, with Denver holding a 10-to-7 rest edge in a non-neutral game.
    • Most likely loss: Arizona's home field and stronger PFF offense grade (75.4 versus Denver's 62.0) overcome the venue's moneyline/spread inconsistency.
    NFL Spread Detective
    • EPA Strategy Score: Denver -0.38 vs Arizona -0.91; edge +0.53.
    • Primary EPA edge is +0.39, comfortably above the +0.20 trigger.
    • Denver's overall strategy score remains below league average because of weak offensive success and explosive metrics.
  4. Fourth quarter tieLong shotHigh conviction
    +614%Won

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver +1.5 at 0.65 minus Denver -1.5 at 0.47 implies a 0.18 draw probability.
    • Direct fourth-quarter tie is 0.14: a four-point venue self-reference contradiction.
    • 484-game sample: isolated Q4 ties 14.3%, approximate 95% interval 11.1%-17.4%.
    • Late-game strategy and one scoring event can determine the entire quarter result.
  5. Second quarter tieLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver +1.5 at 0.69 minus Denver -1.5 at 0.49 implies a 0.20 draw probability.
    • Direct second-quarter tie is 0.14: a six-point venue self-reference contradiction.
    • 484-game sample: isolated Q2 ties 15.7%, approximate 95% interval 12.5%-18.9%.
    • A single field goal or touchdown breaks the tie; quarter outcomes remain high variance.
  6. Denver Broncos exact margin of victory 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live main spread makes Denver a 4.5-point favorite.
    • Directional coherence: the bucket backs the sharp favorite, and the exact-margin ladder is live, quoted and tradable.
    • The estimated edge is only about 1.5 percentage points before venue fees; normal model error can erase it.
Show all 40 picks
  1. Over 44.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
  2. Denver Broncos spread −10.5Long shot
    +245%Won

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
  3. Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals 2Q total under 13.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 32% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.60 Denver and 1.64 Arizona points per drive imply a modest two-to-three-possession quarter baseline.
    • Pregame pace inputs are 29.0 and 30.5 seconds per play, but both offenses carry negative EPA-to-date: -0.14 Denver and -0.06 Arizona.
    • Live check: Denver leads 3-0 with 5:37 left in Q1, corroborating a low-scoring opening rather than an early shootout.
    • Two fast touchdown drives or a short-field turnover can clear 13.5 quickly.
  4. Game under 21.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19, 20 projected first-half points: blended 1.61/1.91 points per drive over roughly 5.5, 6 drives each.
    • Square-root scaling: half-game SD scales with √drives, not linearly, so halving full-game assumptions misprices half tails.
    • The 43.5 full-game anchor plus a modest late scoring bump makes 21.5 slightly rich; under costs 52c.
    • Arizona’s faster pace and its opponent-adjusted scoring environment can create an early short-field touchdown.
  5. First-half total under 21.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionDown 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp full-game total is 44, implying roughly 20.7, 21.6 first-half points before script adjustment.
    • Recent six-game first-half scoring averages are Denver 6.2 and Arizona 9.8, only 16.0 combined.
    • Denver scored on 0 of six recent opening drives; Arizona scored on 3 of six.
    • A fast touchdown or short-field turnover can break a low first-half total quickly.
  6. Jacoby Brissett under 228.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • All listed OL/DL starters were confirmed at 11:42, 11:44 PDT; Arizona RG Hayden Conner replaces inactive Jon Gaines II.
    • Denver pass rush: 72.7 grade, 12.7% win rate, 124 pressures; Arizona OL: 61.2 grade, 55 pressures allowed, 7 sacks.
    • Opposite pass side is only a mild Denver protection edge: Denver OL allowed 2 sacks with 97.5 PBE; Arizona rush grade is 62.0.
    • Denver's 69.8 run-block grade versus Arizona's 55.7 run-defense grade could create a lead and reduce late Arizona dropbacks.
  7. Jaylen Waddle under 51.5 receiving yards
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected 36.0 yards from six targets per game at his 6.0 season yards/target; actual last three averaged 26.0.
    • 27.8% production shortfall versus target-based expectation clears the 15% regression gate.
    • Denver has only six current-season games of data with Waddle, who changed teams from Miami.
  8. J.K. Dobbins over 10.5 fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 66% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sleeper/ESPN PPR baselines average 11.7 points; ESPN is 13.45.
    • 16.2 touches per game over five; 14.6 carries and workhorse lead despite limited routes.
    • Arizona allows 21.0 RB PPR points per game; Denver is favored by 4.5 indoors.
    • Sleeper and ESPN projections disagree materially: 9.98 versus 13.45 points.
  9. Trey McBride over 15.3 fantasy points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 66% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17.2 season PPR points per game from 49 receptions, 361 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
    • Medium-confidence tier: six-game sample and stable role are usable, with no current player designation.
    • Official starter cards are not posted; late inactive or route-share changes remain possible.
  10. Total Points under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game EPA: Denver offense -0.14/play; Arizona offense -0.06, while Denver defense allows -0.04.
    • Arizona’s +0.09 defensive EPA allowed raises Denver’s scoring path, but Denver’s offense depresses the combined baseline.
    • Pace is 30.49/29.04 seconds per play; PROE is +0.10/+0.16, only moderate possession support.
    • High PROE can create clock-stopping incompletions and extra possessions; the pace signal is only moderate.
  11. Denver Broncos under 25.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • -0.14 Denver offensive EPA/play versus +0.09 Arizona defensive EPA/play allowed keeps the matchup below neutral.
    • Denver averages 1.61 points per drive versus a 2.12 league average, with 114 points through six games.
    • Internal coherence: 25.5 Denver minus 19.5 Arizona implies a 6-point margin, versus the 4.5-point spread; 45 combined points also exceeds the 43.5 game total.
    • Denver can clear 25.5 with three touchdowns even if its down-to-down efficiency remains mediocre; other offensive absences and depth-chart uncertainty add noise.
  12. Arizona Cardinals spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Arizona's PFF offense grade is 75.4 versus Denver's 62.0; home points per drive are 1.91 versus Denver's 1.61 away.
    • The expected game script is competitive enough for the key half-point; indoor conditions remove weather volatility.
    • Most likely loss: Denver wins by 4 or more behind its stronger defense: -0.04 defensive EPA/play versus Arizona's +0.09.
  13. Denver Broncos win by 7 to 14Long shot
    +335%Won

    Taken at 23¢ on Kalshi

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model centers Denver at +7.0, 2.5 points beyond the market's Denver -4.5 spread.
    • Last-five defensive EPA allowed: Denver -0.07 vs Arizona +0.18, a 0.25 EPA/play gap.
    • Denver's last-five scoring margin is +2.0 per game; Arizona's is -12.8.
    • Denver's last-five success rate is 39.7% versus Arizona's 46.5%, a 6.8-point disadvantage.
  14. Bo Nix under 32.5 passing attempts
    +86%Won

    Taken at −116 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 60.0%; 9.3 points above the 50.7% devigged market probability.
    • Nix averaged 29.8 attempts in Denver's four wins versus 35.0 in two losses.
    • His six-game average is 31.5 attempts; his last two games produced 27 and 27.
    • Arizona allows 29.7 points per game, which could extend Denver drives and increase attempts.
  15. J.K. Dobbins under 51.5 rushing yards
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 45.0 season rushing yards per game; 46.8 across his last five.
    • Under 51.5 in 5 of 6 games and 4 of his last 5.
    • His confirmed lead-back role is stable at 81 carries and 43.4% snap share through six games.
    • Arizona's season defensive EPA allowed is +0.09 per play, a weak matchup for an under.
  16. Courtland Sutton under 35.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20.5 season receiving yards per game; 22.4 across his last five.
    • Under 35.5 in 5 of 6 games and 4 of his last 5.
    • Only 28 targets through six games despite a confirmed 78% offensive snap share.
    • Arizona's PFF coverage grade is only 46.4, creating a favorable efficiency matchup for Sutton.
  17. Bo Nix under 216.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 174.8 season passing yards per game; 183.6 across his last five.
    • Under 216.5 in 5 of 6 games, including 4 of the last 5.
    • Denver averages only 0.39 offensive success and -0.14 EPA per play this season.
    • Arizona's defense is permissive: +0.09 defensive EPA allowed per play season-to-date.
  18. J.K. Dobbins first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue self-reference; named edge class: PROJECTION.
    • Denver produced 11 touchdowns on 18 red-zone trips through six games (61.1%); Arizona has allowed 15 on 21 (71.4%).
    • Dobbins is confirmed active and the RB1: 43.4% snap share, 52.5% run-snap rate, early-down-hammer role.
    • First-touchdown markets are extremely high variance; one play decides the ticket.
  19. Trey McBride over 0.5 touchdowns
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • McBride owns a 90.5% snap share and 65 targets through six games.
    • He has 3 receiving touchdowns in six games; Arizona has generated 23 red-zone possessions and 11 scores.
    • Only 11 of Arizona's 23 red-zone possessions became touchdowns; conversion variance is material.
  20. Bo Nix under 217.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5: 4/5 under 217.5 (288, 186, 214, 123, 107); no pushes.
    • 7/10 under; 2026 season: 5/6 under; last three all stayed below.
    • Weighted exact-yardage distribution (current six starts 2x, prior four 1x) centers at 192.2, 11.6% below the line.
    • Arizona's coverage grade is only 46.4 and its recent defense allowed +0.10 EPA/play, a clean matchup can lift Nix.
  21. Game total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver’s 10-game offense EPA is -0.12/play; Arizona’s defense allows +0.10 EPA/play, but scoring baselines still project roughly 42, 43.
    • Season scoring baselines: Denver 19.0 points scored/game; Arizona 21.0, with Denver allowing 20.8.
    • Arizona’s offense is stronger at +0.01 EPA/play, and Denver is without CB Pat Surtain II.
  22. Arizona Cardinals +4
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • book_levels are Arizona 3 versus Denver 3; this corroborating measure is tied, so the signal relies on the thin-plus-deep pairing, not quote size alone.
    • Directional check: backing Arizona Cardinals, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Only two of three measures support the read; book_levels are tied rather than favoring Arizona.
  23. Jacoby Brissett over 23.0 pass completions
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brissett averaged 25.8 completions over his last five starts, 12.2% above the 23.0 line.
    • He cleared 23 completions in 3 of those 5 games, including 24, 29, and 38.
    • Brissett is a confirmed starter, and Denver is without starting corner Pat Surtain II.
    • Brissett was below 23 completions in 2 of the last 5 games, including 17 in Week 2.
  24. Bo Nix under 220.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 183.6 passing yards per game over his last five starts is 16.7% below the 220.5 line.
    • Nix finished under 220.5 in 4 of his last 5 games; the lone over was 288 yards.
    • Denver has produced only -0.14 offensive EPA per play and 1.61 points per drive through six games.
    • Arizona's defense has allowed positive 0.09 EPA per play, a favorable matchup for Nix's efficiency.
  25. Game total under 60.5Favorite
    +14%Won

    Taken at 88¢ on Polymarket US

    Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's 44.0 total devigs to 49.3% Over / 50.7% Under; 60.5 is 16.5 points into the wing.
    • Six-game averages: Arizona 70.5 plays and 1.91 points/drive; Denver 58.7 plays and 1.61 points/drive.
    • Tail model is explicitly less trusted; defensive or special-teams scores, or overtime, can clear 60.5.
  26. Game over 44.5 total points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  27. Denver Broncos first-half winnerFavorite
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver has 10 rest days versus Arizona's 7, a three-day scripted-preparation edge.
    • EPA structure favors Denver by 0.05/play: Denver offense minus defense is -0.10 versus Arizona's -0.15.
    • live DraftKings first-half moneyline is Denver -370; with Kalshi's 8.5¢ tie contract, the comparable three-way reference is roughly 72.0%.
    • Arizona owns the better offense baseline: -0.06 offensive EPA, .4608 success rate, and 1.91 points per drive versus Denver's -0.14, .3895, and 1.61.
  28. Denver Broncos first-half spread over 2.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Denver -4.5; 55% scripted-half scale (-2.48) plus 0.5 rest premium derives roughly Denver -3.0.
    • Rest: Denver has 10 days versus Arizona's 7, a material +3-day first-half preparation edge.
    • EPA margin: Denver -0.10/play versus Arizona -0.15, a +0.05/play Denver edge after offense minus defensive EPA.
    • Both quarterbacks are confirmed active, but Denver's defensive personnel losses and Arizona's unresolved non-QB availability add variance.
  29. Denver Broncos to winFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver's 2026 defense is -0.06 EPA/play versus Arizona's +0.10, a 0.17 EPA/play gap favoring Denver.
    • Denver enters 4-1 over its last five; Arizona is 1-4, supporting the defensive projection rather than a short-term narrative.
    • Confirmed starters: Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett; the personnel gate is full-tier with 9 and 10 current-season games in the efficiency sample.
    • Denver's offense is still -0.09 EPA/play, so a defensive edge may not translate into a comfortable win.
  30. Trey McBride over 7.5 receptions
    +112%Won

    Taken at +112 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 90.5% season snap share; last three games were 97.2%, 90.4%, and 97.0%.
    • 31 targets and 23 receptions over the last three games: 10.3 targets and 7.7 receptions per game.
    • Arizona's recent pass rate is 61.1%; Jacoby Brissett averaged 39 attempts across his last three starts.
    • Denver's -0.04 season defensive EPA allowed per play is not a soft overall matchup.
  31. Game total under 44.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 44.5 exceeds the 23.5 + 17.5 team-total sum by 3.5 points.
    • 44.5 is 2.5 points above 2 × the 21-point first-half total.
    • Confirmed ESPN game-day availability: Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and the listed primary skill starters are active; Denver has 10 rest days, Arizona 7.
    • The internal gaps are only 3.5 points versus team totals and 2.5 versus doubled first-half pricing; venue self-reference can be noisy.
  32. Trey McBride over 6.5 receptions
    +70%Won

    Taken at −143 on DraftKings

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • He caught 7, 9, and 7 passes over the last three games, averaging 7.7 receptions.
    • Denver allowed tight ends 34 targets and 220 receiving yards across the last four games.
    • The 6.5-reception line sits below his 7.7-reception trailing average; DraftKings priced the over -143.
    • Denver's 55 tight-end receiving yards allowed per game is not an overwhelming efficiency weakness.
  33. Arizona Cardinals to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver's season offense is -0.09 EPA/play; its last two regular-season games were -0.14 and -0.24.
    • Arizona's season offense is +0.01 EPA/play, creating a credible home-upset path against Denver's low-output offense.
    • My win estimate is 37%, roughly 3.7 percentage points above the contract; ProphetX improved from 32.79¢ to 33.33¢ late.
    • Most likely loss: Denver's -0.06 defensive EPA/play and Arizona's +0.10 defensive EPA allowed produce a comfortable Broncos win.
  34. Arizona Cardinals +4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Arizona covers 54%; fair price -117 versus DraftKings -105, a 2.8-point probability edge.
    • Arizona leads points per drive 1.91 to 1.61 and is home; Pat Surtain II is officially inactive.
    • DraftKings' +4.5 preserves value against a Denver team with a strong defense but an offense averaging -0.14 EPA/play to date.
    • Denver's defense is materially better: -0.04 EPA allowed/play versus Arizona's +0.09, and Denver is 4-1 in its last five.

Questions

Who won Broncos vs. Cardinals?

The Broncos won 30-16 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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