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Packers vs. LionsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFord Field
Packers4–2
17–20Final
Lions3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
GB707317
DET737320

Top model pick, graded

Won

Fourth quarter ends tied 13¢

Why Level Terms likes it: +0.5/-1.5 quarter handicap pair implies a 0.18 draw probability: 0.53 − 0.35.

Level TermsUp 76% return this season · 53 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 31-27 on this game · +44% return

  1. Detroit Lions −3.54 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    4 modelsQuantitative +EV Analyst, NFL Trench Mismatch +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Detroit’s last-10 net-EPA differential is about 6.5 points per 100 plays better than Green Bay’s.
    • Detroit’s PFF overall grade is 85.0 versus Green Bay’s 67.2.
    • Detroit has not yet supplied an official starting lineup, so late personnel changes remain possible.
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • PFF pass-block grade 73.2 DET vs 46.8 GB; run-block grade 78.1 vs 47.8.
    • GB allowed 78 pressures and 9 sacks; DET allowed 51 pressures and 4 sacks; PBE 96.4 vs 97.3.
    • Jordan Love and Green Bay's confirmed line can blunt pressure with quick-game decisions.
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Model fair spread is Detroit -5.2, a 1.7-point gap over the -3.5 consensus.
    • 2026 offense EPA/play: Detroit +0.1599 versus Green Bay -0.0414; success rates 53.0% versus 43.5%.
    • The current efficiency sample is only five Detroit games and six Green Bay games; the 2025 prior favored Green Bay's offense.
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Detroit's +0.1599 offensive EPA/play and 0.5301 success rate lead Green Bay's -0.0414 and 0.4354.
    • PFF grades favor Detroit: 84.1 offense, 73.2 pass block versus Green Bay's 61.1 and 46.8.
    • Detroit's recent defense allowed +0.0544 EPA/play; Green Bay's recent defense was -0.0641, creating a live matchup counterweight.
  2. Detroit Lions to winFavorite4 models agree
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsSunday Board Pairs, Pigskin Pete +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Detroit's offense is +0.1599 EPA/play with a .5301 success rate and 3.1588 points/drive; Green Bay is -0.0414 EPA/play, .4354 success, and 1.8947 points/drive.
    • The matchup is reinforced by the OL-DL card: Detroit pass block 70.5 versus Green Bay pass rush 60.7; Green Bay pass block 53.1 faces Detroit pass rush 71.6.
    • Most likely loss: Green Bay's -0.0641 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Detroit, while Detroit's +0.116 defensive EPA allowed lets Jordan Love keep the game close or win.
    Pigskin Pete
    • Detroit's recent offense leads GB in EPA/play, 0.1599 to -0.0414, success rate, 0.5301 to 0.4354, and points/drive, 3.159 to 1.895.
    • Jared Goff's 86.1 PFF passing grade and 0.5% TWP rate materially beat Jordan Love's 72.3 and 4.2%.
    • Green Bay's defense has the better recent EPA-allowed profile, -0.0641 versus Detroit's +0.1160 to date.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Detroit's offense is +0.1599 EPA/play versus Green Bay's -0.0414, a 0.2013-play current-season gap.
    • Detroit has 14 rest days to Green Bay's 7, plus home field; both starting quarterbacks are game-day confirmed.
    • Green Bay's defense is stronger by EPA allowed: -0.0641 versus Detroit's +0.1160.
    Long Way Home
    • Detroit has 14 rest days versus Green Bay's 7, adding a concrete preparation and fatigue edge at home.
    • My win estimate is 68%, above the 65.03c break-even price; the edge is the efficiency-and-rest projection, not payout size.
    • Most likely loss: Green Bay's stronger defense and a turnover margin suppress Detroit enough for a close Packers win.
  3. Detroit Lions spread −3.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Sunday Board Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Detroit leads current-season offense: +0.1599 vs Green Bay -0.0414 EPA/play, .5301 vs .4354 success rate, and 3.1588 vs 1.8947 points/drive.
    • The Lions have 14 rest days versus Green Bay's 7; pace is similar, so the rest and efficiency advantages remain relevant.
    • Jordan Love and Jared Goff are expected, not officially confirmed; late inactives could materially change the rating.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Detroit's offense is +0.1599 EPA/play versus Green Bay's -0.0414 across five and six current-season games.
    • PFF card favors Detroit's offense 84.1 to 61.1 and overall grade 85.0 to 67.2; the matchup supports a margin beyond the posted 3.5.
    • Most likely loss: Green Bay's -0.0641 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Detroit enough for Jordan Love to keep the margin inside 3.5.
    Long Way Home
    • Detroit has 14 rest days versus Green Bay's 7; my cover estimate is 56%, above the 51.92c contract.
    • Most likely loss: Detroit wins narrowly or Green Bay wins, leaving the Packers inside 3.5 points.
  4. Green Bay Packers spread +3.53 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    3 modelsNFL Luck Regression, Key Number Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NFL Luck Regression
    • Luck Score: Green Bay 0.249 vs Detroit 0.843; difference 0.594 clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Fumble luck z: Green Bay +0.114 vs Detroit +1.634; Detroit recovered 8 versus 6 expected.
    • Detroit's underlying offense is materially stronger: +0.1599 EPA/play and 0.530 success rate versus Green Bay's -0.0414 and 0.435.
    Key Number Pairs
    • ESPN point-in-time model projects Detroit by 2.343 points and only 58.861% to win, below the -3.5 market framing.
    • Green Bay’s six-game offense is -0.0414 EPA/play; Detroit’s defense is +0.116 EPA/play allowed, tempering the home offense edge.
    • Most likely loss: Detroit’s offense wins by 4 or more behind its +0.1599 EPA/play attack and 3.159 points per drive.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Green Bay defensive EPA/play is -0.0641 versus Detroit's +0.1160, a 0.1801-play matchup edge for the dog.
    • Green Bay is 4-1 over its last five (+3.8 margin); Detroit is 3-2 (+3.2), while the spread grants a full field goal.
    • Detroit's offense leads by 0.2013 EPA/play, and its home-field advantage can overwhelm Green Bay's defensive edge.
  5. Amon-Ra St. Brown under 86.5 receiving yards2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Regression Radar, THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Regression Radar
    • 30 targets over the last three games with 85.3% snap share.
    • The line rose from 79.5 to 86.5 since Friday despite the efficiency regression signal.
    • plus-target role can overcome the projection with one explosive reception.
    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEM
    • 4 of Amon-Ra's 5 season games finished under 86.5 yards; average is 74.4.
    • Green Bay's pregame defensive EPA allowed is -0.0641 per play, a favorable matchup for the under.
    • The five-game sample is thin; one target-share or efficiency shift makes the empirical 4-of-5 rate fragile.
  6. Game total under 55.52 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsBrewing NFL Totals 2.0, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0
    • Matchup estimate 52, 53 points, below the live 55.5 total.
    • Green Bay posts -0.041 offensive EPA/play, 43.5% success, and 1.895 points/drive.
    • Detroit offense is strong: +0.160 EPA/play, 53.0% success, and 3.159 points/drive.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Conservative stress estimate remains 55.5%, preserving a +5.3-point edge.
    • Green Bay's 2026 offense is -0.041 EPA/play to date and averages 21.2 points through six games.
    • Detroit's recent offense averages 32.8 points and Green Bay's recent defense has allowed 29.6 points per game in the opponent sample.
Show all 47 picks
  1. Green Bay Packers exact margin of victory 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • This underdog bucket contains the key numbers 3, 4, and 6; that football-scoring lumpiness is the structural mispricing thesis.
    • The sharp anchor favors Detroit; the model is deliberately taking an underdog tail against that direction.
  2. Fourth quarter ends tiedLong shot
    +669%Won

    Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.5/-1.5 quarter handicap pair implies a 0.18 draw probability: 0.53 − 0.35.
    • Direct fourth-quarter draw is quoted at 0.13, a 0.05 venue self-reference gap.
    • All 3 winner contracts and 5 fourth-quarter spread rungs passed quote screens; no exclusions.
    • The historical isolated-quarter base rate is 14.6% over 485 games, making the projection support modest rather than decisive.
  3. Third quarter ends tiedLong shot
    +456%Won

    Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.5/-1.5 quarter handicap pair implies a 0.20 draw probability: 0.57 − 0.37.
    • Direct third-quarter draw is quoted at 0.18, a 0.02 venue self-reference gap.
    • All 3 winner contracts and 5 third-quarter spread rungs passed quote screens; no exclusions.
    • Quarter outcomes are high-variance; the 485-game historical isolated-quarter sample is only a base-rate check.
  4. Second half ends tiedLong shot
    +1567%Won

    Taken at 6¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • GB second-half +0.5 is 0.52 and GB second-half winner is 0.42, implying a 0.10 draw probability.
    • The three second-half winner quotes sum exactly to 1.00: GB 0.42, Detroit 0.52, draw 0.06.
    • Screened 34 second-half contracts; six placeholder-band ladder contracts excluded, with both sides quoted on the live three-leg set.
    • The exact GB -0.5 companion contract is not listed; the equivalent GB winner contract is used for the identity.
  5. Game under 56.5 total points
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US Under 56.5 costs 53.5¢; gmpm2’s recent global fills were 54, 55¢, so the current entry improved.
    • Sportsbooks center at 55.5 points; this contract supplies one additional point of protection.
    • Indoor conditions and explosive offenses can beat the under; recent scores include Detroit 45 and multiple 31-point games.
  6. Detroit Lions spread 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 2,845-game key-number histogram gives p_anchor 39.9% at Detroit over 7.5; p_model is 41.8% after a measured +1.0-point Detroit margin adjustment.
    • Most likely loss: Detroit wins by 7 or fewer; the 7-point key-number cluster is directly relevant to this 7.5 rung.
  7. First-half total over 24.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit's 3.1588 points per drive, Green Bay's 1.8947, and both teams' fast pace support an active scripted opening.
    • Green Bay's stronger defensive EPA (-0.0641) and Detroit's weaker defensive EPA (+0.1160) create a plausible low-scoring counter-script.
  8. Detroit Lions first-half spread over 2.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit has 14 rest days versus Green Bay's 7, the strongest first-half signal.
    • Green Bay's defensive EPA is materially better (-0.0641 versus Detroit's +0.1160), which can erase the rest edge.
  9. Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions 1Q total over 10.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit 3.159 PPD and GB 1.895 PPD imply roughly 12.3 first-quarter points at 2.5 drives each.
    • Combined pace is strong: Detroit 28.114 and Green Bay 29.143 seconds per play to date.
    • EPA matchup remains viable for scoring: Detroit offense +0.1599 versus GB defense -0.0641 allowed; GB offense -0.0414 versus Detroit +0.1160 allowed.
    • Only about 5-6 combined possessions make one punt, turnover, or stalled red-zone drive decisive.
  10. Under 55.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Green Bay's current offense is -0.0414 EPA/play, .4354 success rate, and 1.8947 points/drive; its defense allows -0.0641 EPA/play.
    • Detroit's offense is +0.1599 EPA/play with 3.1588 points/drive; its efficiency can overwhelm the under.
  11. Christian Watson anytime touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +120 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 48%; fair price approximately +108 versus DraftKings +120.
    • Watson has 48 targets, 29 receptions and 6 receiving touchdowns through six games.
    • Green Bay projects into pass-heavy trailing scripts against Detroit's stronger offense.
    • Touchdown rate is partly a six-game sample and will regress toward career baseline.
  12. Green Bay Packers +2.5 first-half spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA matchup is near neutral: Detroit offense +0.1599 versus Green Bay defense -0.0641; Green Bay offense -0.0414 versus Detroit defense +0.1160.
    • Square-root scaling: first-half margin SD is roughly full-game SD divided by sqrt(2), not divided by 2, preserving more +2.5 cover probability than naive halving.
    • No confirmed starters are on file; Aaron Banks, Jordon Riley, Bo Melton and Benjamin St-Juste remain questionable.
  13. Christian Watson over 77.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 84.7 receiving yards per game across his last three: 64, 143, 47.
    • Snap share rose 68.3% → 80.6% → 88.0%; he is a confirmed starter with no active game-day limitation.
    • Detroit allowed +0.165 defensive EPA per play across its last four games, a favorable matchup signal.
    • The three-game median is only 64 yards; the 84.7 average is lifted by the 143-yard game.
  14. Detroit Lions spread −10.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit leads current form in offense EPA/play 0.1599 to -0.0414, success 0.5301 to 0.4354, and points/drive 3.1588 to 1.8947.
    • Pinnacle-anchored key-number ladder gives p_anchor 32.6% at -10.5; EV_anchor is +20.6% at the 27.03c price.
    • Most likely loss: Detroit wins by 1-10 points or Green Bay wins; -10.5 has no push protection.
  15. First-half total under 26.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp total is 55.5; the 48% first-half allocation is 26.6 before script adjustment.
    • Recent first-half scoring averages are 13.4 Detroit and 11.0 Green Bay, or 24.4 combined across five games each.
    • Early-down pass rates are modest and nearly matched at 44.9% Detroit and 45.1% Green Bay; opening-drive scores occurred in only 1 of 5 and 2 of 5.
    • The market-implied full-game total is high enough that normal finishing variance can push an average first half above 26.5.
  16. Detroit Lions first-half spread under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Split Decision (Kalshi 1H)Down 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game sharp spread is Detroit -3.5; halving the margin gives roughly -1.75 at halftime.
    • Green Bay and Detroit early-down pass rates are nearly identical at 45.1% and 44.9%; no pace-based reason to inflate Detroit's early lead.
    • The first-half margin SD-9 assumption creates a wide distribution; a single short-field turnover can dominate.
  17. Jared Goff over 278.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit's five offensive-line starters were confirmed at 11:59 PDT; no DET starter differs from the current usage sample.
    • Pass matchup favors Detroit: OL pass-block grade 73.2 versus Green Bay pass-rush-defense grade 63.8; matchup data show 70.5 versus 60.7.
    • Mechanism confirms the protection edge: Goff averaged 2.84, 2.94 seconds to throw in Weeks 3, 5 and has only 4 sacks in 5 games.
    • Green Bay's full defensive-front depth chart is incomplete; Jordon Riley is questionable, while Lukas Van Ness is listed full participation.
  18. Game over 10.5 first-quarter total
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Cross FootUp 114% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fitted joint distribution: Lions margin mean +3.8, margin SD 6.0; total mean 55.5, total SD 12.2.
    • Quarter slice scales to mean 13.9 and SD 6.1; it prices Over 10.5 at approximately 71%.
    • Anchor agreement confirmed: nearby full-game spread rungs (+2.5/+3.5/+4.5) and total rungs move monotonically and fit the same distribution.
    • The Q1 contract's latest recorded change was several hours before kickoff, so it may be less current than the full-game anchors.
  19. Game total over 53.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team-total rungs 30.5 + 26.5 sum to 57, 3.5 points above 53.5.
    • ProphetX first-half total 27 doubles to 54, 0.5 above the selected full-game rung.
    • captured sportsbook totals sit at 55.5, above the ProphetX 53.5 rung; QB and primary skill starters are confirmed active.
    • Most likely loss: stalled drives or turnover-driven short possessions fail to convert the fast tempo into 54 points.
  20. Green Bay Packers 1Q to win
    0%Push

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Green Bay scored 4.2 first-quarter points per game over its last five.
    • Detroit allowed +0.1171 EPA per first-quarter play over its last five.
    • Green Bay is the 1Q underdog at a 39.5¢ Polymarket graded price.
    • Five-game first-quarter samples are noisy and do not establish a stable team tendency.
  21. Green Bay Packers under 13.5 first-half team points
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; venue self-reference, not a sharp reference.
    • Green Bay's 1.895 points/drive, -0.0414 offensive EPA/play, and 29.14 seconds per play imply a first-half fit below the 13.5 threshold.
    • The Packers' 11-for-22 red-zone scoring rate limits touchdown conversion when early drives reach scoring range.
    • A scripted opening pace, a short field, or an early explosive play can get Green Bay to 14 before halftime.
  22. Green Bay Packers under 24.5 team points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION + INTERNAL COHERENCE; venue self-reference, not a sharp reference.
    • Green Bay is at -0.0414 offensive EPA/play, 1.895 points/drive, and 43.5% success through six games.
    • Packers have converted only 11 of 22 red-zone trips; that 50% scoring rate supports a fitted 22, 23 point matchup range.
    • Detroit's defense has allowed positive 0.116 EPA/play, so this is a softer matchup than Green Bay's season average.
  23. Jahmyr Gibbs over 25.2 fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31.1 season PPR points per game from 105 carries, 504 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 243 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns.
    • Gibbs owns a 76.7% offensive snap share and a workhorse role in Detroit's 32.8-points-per-game offense.
    • Medium-confidence tier: five-game role sample is strong, but the fantasy distribution remains touchdown- and big-play-skewed.
    • Green Bay's recent defense allows -0.0835 EPA/play, a meaningful efficiency obstacle.
  24. Under 58.5 total
    +84%Won

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14 points came on the opening quarter, but GB’s 16-play drive produced only -0.237 EPA/play overall, including a missed 26-yard field goal.
    • Both quarterbacks are confirmed and participating, but the live game has only 22 combined completed pass attempts and one score per team.
    • Season efficiency is materially lower than the live scoring burst: GB -0.069 offensive EPA/play and DET +0.297 across 2026 games, with early regression priced poorly at 58.5.
    • The game already has 14 points with explosive gains of 28, 27, 24 and 22 yards; continued chunk plays can break the under quickly.
  25. Game under 55.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is approximately 52.5 points; the 55.5 total sits above the central scenario.
    • Detroit averages 32.8 points through five games, but Green Bay's opponent-adjusted defensive EPA is -0.0641.
    • Green Bay averages 21.2 points through six games; its offense is -0.0414 EPA/play against Detroit's weaker +0.1160 defensive-EPA profile.
    • Detroit's offense is elite at +0.1599 EPA/play and can clear the total through explosive plays.
  26. Tucker Kraft under 51.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of Tucker Kraft's 6 season games finished under 51.5 receiving yards; his average is 41.5.
    • His season role is stable: 37 targets across six games and an 80.5% snap share.
    • The under is supported by a 61.6 PFF pass-route grade and only 1.48 yards per route run.
    • Detroit's defense is the weaker side of this matchup by pregame EPA, allowing positive 0.116 defensive EPA per play.
  27. Detroit Lions first touchdown
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit owns 17 red-zone scores on 22 trips (77.3%); Green Bay has allowed 15 on 20 (75%).
    • Jahmyr Gibbs is confirmed RB1 and a 0.767-snap-share workhorse; his 9 touchdowns in five games validate concentrated usage.
    • Detroit's pregame offense leads Green Bay 3.159 to 1.895 points per drive; Goff and Gibbs are confirmed active.
    • First-touchdown outcome is highly sensitive to coin toss and scripted opening-drive success; neither is confirmed.
  28. Amon-Ra St. Brown over 0.5 touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Amon-Ra is Detroit's top expected WR depth-chart slot; the usage read does not rely on season touchdown totals.
    • Detroit has 22 red-zone attempts with 17 converted; Green Bay opponents have produced 15 conversions on 20 red-zone trips.
    • Goal-line target share is not directly published; Gibbs and other Lions skill players compete for the same red-zone package.
  29. Jared Goff under 2.5 passing touchdowns
    +63%Won

    Taken at −159 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Exact line hit 3/5 (60%) L5, 6/10 (60%) L10, and 3/5 (60%) in 2026; no pushes.
    • Goff's last five Packers meetings went under 2.5 in 4/5 games.
    • Sleeper projects 1.94 TDs and ESPN 2.14, both below 2.5 by at least 14%.
    • Detroit's implied 29.5 points and 60.9% pass rate create ample touchdown opportunities.
  30. Green Bay Packers team total under 23.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Green Bay averages 21.17 points and 1.895 points per drive through six games.
    • Recent Green Bay scores stayed under 23.5 in 4 of 5; recent offense was -0.0195 EPA/play.
    • Research quality 72/100; rejected Detroit ML 64.5¢, GB +3.5 48.5¢, and full under 55.5 50.5¢ as weaker after price and variance.
    • Detroit has allowed 29.6 points per game and +0.116 defensive EPA allowed recently.
  31. Green Bay Packers −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Packers -1 wins by 2+, but pushes if Green Bay wins by exactly 1; Packers -1.5 loses there.
    • ProphetX prices Packers -1 at +186 (34.97¢) versus Packers -1.5 at +188 (34.72¢), only a 0.25-point implied gap.
    • This is not a Packers projection: wins require Green Bay to win by 2+; other non-push outcomes lose.
  32. Sam LaPorta over 49.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 63.2 receiving yards per game across his last five, 27.7% above the 49.5 line.
    • LaPorta is a confirmed starter as of 11:59 AM PDT.
    • Green Bay's away defensive EPA is -0.0641, a strong matchup challenge.
  33. Detroit Lions first-half winner
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is 14 days for Detroit versus 7 for Green Bay, the brief's strongest first-half lever.
    • Detroit leads to-date offensive EPA/play by 0.2013 (+0.1599 vs -0.0414) and success rate by 9.47 points (.5301 vs .4354).
    • PPD is 3.1588 for Detroit versus 1.8947 for Green Bay; Detroit also has the faster pace (28.114 vs 29.143 seconds/play).
    • The 59% estimate is only 2.4 points above the tie-adjusted sharp reference; market efficiency could erase the lean.
  34. Matthew Golden first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +1300 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 8.5%; fair price approximately +1076 versus DraftKings +1300.
    • Golden has 57 targets, 30 receptions and 3 touchdowns through six games.
    • The model gives extra first-drive weight to his consistent route participation and Green Bay's expected pass rate.
    • Golden's three-touchdown sample is thin and offers less established red-zone evidence than Watson.
  35. Green Bay Packers first-half spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    Half MeasureUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game Pinnacle spread is Detroit -3.5; the half-spread rule implies roughly Detroit -1.5, making GB +2.5 one point of value.
    • Green Bay allowed 8.0 first-half points per game across its last six completed games, supporting a competitive opening half.
    • This is the minimum qualifying one-point model gap, so ordinary first-half variance can erase the edge.
  36. Under 27.5 first-half points
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected first-half total: 25.5 points, 2.0 below FanDuel's 27.5.
    • Detroit averaged 13.4 first-half points; Green Bay averaged 11.2 across 2026 games.
    • Naive half of the 55.5 full-game total is 27.75; projection divergence is 2.25 points.
    • Detroit's recent offense posted 0.114 explosive-play rate, so one early shot can break the under.
  37. Green Bay Packers to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Oct. 22 First Take: Smith said, “This is close, but it’s Lions for me,” citing Packers errors.
    • He also said, “I expect the shootout” and “I’m taking Jordan Love over Jared Goff,” making this a specific game-side call to fade.
    • Green Bay is 4-1 over its last five versus Detroit’s 3-2; the Packers are priced as a 37¢ underdog.
    • Smith called the matchup close, so the 37¢ price may already reflect the true upset chance.
  38. Sam LaPorta over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −148 on FanDuel

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Exact line hit 4/5 (80%) L5, 8/10 (80%) L10, and 4/5 (80%) in 2026; no pushes.
    • LaPorta cleared 4.5 receptions in 3/5 recent Packers meetings, including 6 and 5 in 2025.
    • Sleeper projects 4.93 receptions and ESPN 4.92, roughly 9% above the 4.5 line.
    • Green Bay's tight-end matchup allows 30% fewer PPR points than league average; coverage grade is 84.4.
  39. Total points over 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels: over 3 versus under 3; the third measure is neutral, while thinness and depth agree.
    • Only two of three measures support the read; book-level counts tie.
  40. Game total under 53.5Long shot
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX offers the stricter under 53.5 at +196, only 33.78¢ implied, despite the more favorable sharp reference line; own estimate is 43%.
    • The most likely loss is a second-half scoring surge: 40 or more combined points after halftime makes 54+ and beats the ticket.
  41. Green Bay Packers +3.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Packers defense allows -0.064 EPA/play to date versus Detroit's +0.116 allowed.
    • Green Bay has won 4 of 5 and owns a +3.8 recent scoring-margin profile.
    • Detroit's offensive EPA edge is offset by the Packers' defensive edge; home/rest advantage is already priced.
    • Detroit's offense leads the matchup at +0.160 EPA/play and 0.530 success rate.

Questions

Who won Packers vs. Lions?

The Lions won 20–17 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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