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Browns vs. TitansFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNissan Stadium
Browns4–2
27–24Final
Titans1–5
Score by period
Team1234T
CLE71001027
TEN14001024

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cleveland Browns to win 55¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 27-28 on this game · +0% return

  1. Cleveland Browns to win11 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    11 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Drift +9
    Why 11 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • No confirmed lineup tier is posted; Cleveland has 13 listed outs and Denzel Ward plus Quincy Williams questionable.
      Drift
      • Power rating 56.5% Browns: better offense EPA (-0.151 vs -0.1568), defense EPA allowed (-0.0682 vs +0.021), success rate (.4299 vs .4291), and points per drive (1.471 vs 1.284).
      • Pinnacle exact moneyline reference is 54.6% Cleveland after devigging both sides; model-market gap is 1.9 points.
      • Deshaun Watson and Cam Ward are expected rather than officially confirmed starters; no official inactives are posted yet.
      Sunday Board Pairs
      • Six-game efficiency sample: Cleveland offense -0.151 EPA/play versus Tennessee defense +0.021 allowed, while Tennessee offense -0.1568 faces Cleveland defense -0.0682 allowed.
      • The matchup points to Cleveland's stronger side of the ball; the Browns are 4-2 versus Tennessee 1-5, with PFF overall grades 68.4 to 64.0.
      • Most likely loss: Cleveland's -0.151 offensive EPA profile fails to capitalize, allowing Tennessee's home field to decide a low-margin game.
      Key Number Pairs
      • Cleveland is 4-2 versus Tennessee 1-5; current defensive EPA/play is -0.0682 for Cleveland versus +0.0210 for Tennessee.
      • PFF team card favors Cleveland 68.4-64.0 overall and 66.3-61.1 on defense; coverage is 71.1 versus 53.6.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's home field and a low-scoring turnover swing overcome Cleveland's defensive edge.
    • Game total under 37.53 models agreeHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      3 modelsHouse Rules, Pigskin Pete +1
      Why 3 models like it
      House Rules
      • Under 37.5 wins at 37 or fewer and has 0% push probability; under 37 pushes exactly at 37.
      • The 37.5 contract loses at 38 or more; the current full-game reference total is only 37.
      Pigskin Pete
      • Last-six scoring averages combine for 31.7 points per game: Cleveland 17.7, Tennessee 14.0.
      • Both offenses are negative in recent EPA/play: Cleveland -0.1510 and Tennessee -0.1568.
      • Pinnacle's total rose from 36.5 to 37, a market move against the under.
      NFL HunterV2
      • Model under probability 60.0%, 5.5 points above the 54.5% price-implied break-even.
      • PIT scoring inputs imply a low baseline: Cleveland 1.4708 and Tennessee 1.2835 points per drive, with both offenses below -0.15 EPA per play.
      • The 12 recent team totals are volatile, including games of 51 and 46 points; a single explosive-play cluster can defeat the under.
    • Tennessee Titans first-half winnerFavorite2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 84¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
      Why 2 models like it
      Locker Room
      • 14-0 at Q1 7:13: Tennessee already owns a two-score first-half cushion.
      • Live drive sample: TEN 7.0 points/drive and +0.789 EPA/play; CLE 0.0 and -1.052.
      • Only 10 TEN and 5 CLE plays are observed; short-field variance can reverse this live state.
      Split Decision
      • Rest is even at 7 days each; the pregame EPA baseline is close: Cleveland defense -0.0682 versus Tennessee +0.0210 allowed, with offenses -0.1510 and -0.1568.
      • Tennessee leads 14-0 in the first quarter; the live state is the decisive update, with roughly 22 minutes still before halftime.
      • Kalshi's winner contract loses on a halftime tie; the separate tie contract is quoted near 5, 6¢.
    • Game total under 372 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsPace Ledger, Resting Money
      Why 2 models like it
      Pace Ledger
      • PROJECTION support: current-season scoring is Cleveland 17.7 and Tennessee 14.0 points per game through six games, 31.7 combined.
      • Both teams have seven rest days, no neutral-site adjustment, and confirmed QB/skill starters via ESPN live at 8:32 AM PDT.
      • Deshaun Watson, Cam Ward, and the listed primary skill starters are confirmed active; there is no quarterback-based suppression edge.
      Resting Money
      • Backing Under 37, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. ProphetX quotes -107 / 51.69¢; Pinnacle's -107 is secondary only.
      • Book-level count ties 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate the direction.
    • Cleveland Browns spread −1.52 models agree
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      Resting Money
      • book_levels are Cleveland 3 versus Tennessee 3; the thin-at-quote and deep-in-total measures agree, with a few-hundred-dollar thin-side stake.
      • The book-level measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels.
      Long Way Home
      • Cleveland's defense is better by 0.0892 EPA/play allowed to date: -0.0682 versus Tennessee's +0.0210.
      • Cleveland is 4-1 over its last five with a +1.6 average margin; Tennessee is 1-4 with a -6.4 average margin.
      • Most likely loss: Cleveland wins by one or loses at home-field-adjusted margin, failing to clear -1.5.
    • Tennessee Titans exact margin of victory 15+Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 6¢ on Polymarket US

      Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • exact TEN 15+ costs 6¢ on the live Polymarket US margin ladder.
      • The same venue prices Browns +14.5 No, the identical TEN 15+ outcome, at 9.5¢, a 3.5-point contradiction.
      • Pinnacle's live anchor is Browns -1.5 (-110), so the game is near pick'em rather than a normal blowout projection.
      • REFERENCE is weaker than an outside model; both contracts could share a stale or faulty quote.
    Show all 41 picks
    1. Cleveland Browns spread +1.5
      +75%Won

      Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

      Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    2. Under 30.5 totalLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both offenses are below average by EPA/play (-0.1568 Tennessee, -0.1510 Cleveland) and points per drive (1.2835, 1.4708); the model shifts the total mean down 1.0 point.
      • Most likely loss: 31 or more points via a short field, turnover or one explosive touchdown drive.
    3. Cleveland Browns–Tennessee Titans 1Q total under 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

      Opening DriveUp 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects roughly 5.8 first-quarter points from about 2.1 possessions per team and season PPD of 1.47 CLE, 1.28 TEN.
      • Pace is 29.97 CLE and 27.57 TEN seconds per play; both offenses are negative EPA/play (-0.151 and -0.157).
      • The first quarter is the most projectable window: confirmed Deshaun Watson and Cam Ward make the opening-script input usable.
      • A first quarter is only roughly 5-6 combined possessions; one explosive play or short field can break the under.
    4. Under 37 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model 54.5% under: combined scoring averages 31.7 points, with both offenses below -0.15 EPA/play.
      • Both teams are below 0.43 success rate; combined explosive rate is 0.083 and pace averages 28.8 seconds per play.
      • Movement favors the under: ProphetX under opened 50.1% devigged and is 51.1% now, about +1.0 point toward this side.
      • Denzel Ward, Quincy Williams, Grant Delpit, Kevin Winston Jr., and Tony Adams remain questionable despite confirmed lineup cards.
    5. Quinshon Judkins anytime touchdownLong shot
      +190%Won

      Taken at +190 on DraftKings

      TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model win probability 36% versus 34.5% DraftKings break-even; fair price about +178.
      • Confirmed first RB after missing last week; 73 carries and 20 targets across five games.
      • Browns averaged 1.543 points per drive over the last five; Spears is out for Tennessee.
      • Return-game workload and goal-line allocation are not fully observable after the missed game.
    6. Game second-half total over 17.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: the full-game total is 37, but both half totals sit at 17.5; that allocation omits the known small second-half scoring bump.
      • The matchup's current offensive EPA is poor on both sides (-0.151 CLE, -0.157 TEN), but Cleveland averages 1.471 points/drive and Tennessee 1.284 across six games; late-game urgency can lift the second half above a flat 18.5 allocation.
      • Square-root scaling means halving possessions does not halve variance: the first-half distribution can sit below 17.5 while the second-half distribution retains a wider scoring tail and late-game bump.
      • This is venue self-reference; no sharp second-half-total reference is posted.
    7. Tennessee Titans first-half spread +2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: full-game board makes Cleveland +2.5 the 60c side, while 1H Cleveland -2.5 is only 45c.
      • Cleveland's 2026 form is 4-2 versus Tennessee's 1-5, but that supports a competitive half, not a three-point Cleveland halftime lead against the full-game +2.5 anchor.
      • Square-root scaling matters: half-game margin SD is roughly full-game SD divided by sqrt(2), not a linear halving, so the favorite's half-tail is less likely than the market's side implies.
      • Questionable Cleveland defenders Denzel Ward and Quincy Williams could materially change the matchup; starters are not confirmed in the warehouse.
    8. Game first-half total under 17.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; named edge class: PROJECTION, not a sharp-book signal.
      • Six-game drive rates imply about 5.92 Cleveland and 4.92 Tennessee first-half drives; current points-per-drive produces roughly 15.0 points.
      • Both offenses are at -0.151 EPA/play or worse to date; Tennessee's defense allows +0.021 EPA/play while Cleveland allows -0.068.
      • Drive and points-per-drive inputs cover only six 2026 games, and splitting each team's drives evenly by half is an approximation.
    9. Cam Ward under 182.5 passing yards
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on DraftKings

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Ward averaged 164.7 passing yards across his last three games: 222, 170, and 102.
      • He stayed at 31, 36, and 22 attempts; the 29.7 average is below the 30.5-attempt market line.
      • Two of his last three games finished under 182.5 yards, and his recent yardage trend is sharply down.
      • The 102-yard game is a small three-game sample and may overstate the downside.
    10. Under total 36.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both QBs are confirmed; each team has six current-season games. Offenses are -0.151/-0.1568 EPA/play and paces are 29.97/27.57 seconds per play.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's defense outperforms its +0.021 EPA allowed profile and the game clears 36.5.
    11. Cleveland Browns spread −3
      0%Push

      Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Six current-season games each: Cleveland defense EPA allowed -0.068 versus Tennessee +0.021, while Cleveland has the better points/drive rate, 1.471 to 1.284; p_model at -3 is 44.2%, EV_model +7.7%.
      • Most likely loss: Cleveland wins by 1-2 points or Tennessee wins; the -3 whole-number rung instead pushes on exactly a 3-point Cleveland win.
    12. Cleveland Browns spread −2
      +93%Won

      Taken at −108 on BetMGM

      NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Blended 2025/2026 defensive EPA allowed favors Cleveland by 0.136 per play: -0.075 Browns versus +0.061 Titans.
      • Cleveland's 2026 points per drive is 1.471 versus Tennessee's 1.284, with near-equal success rates around 43%.
      • PFF team grades favor Cleveland's defense 66.3-61.1 and run blocking 59.7-45.2; Tennessee's run-block grade is the matchup weakness.
      • Pinnacle's sharper reference is only Browns -1.5 and has not materially moved, so sharp confirmation is directional rather than emphatic.
    13. Tennessee Titans −3.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 33¢ on Novig

      Key RungDown 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle main spread de-vigs TEN +1.5 to 48.8% (-101 / CLE -1.5 -109).
      • Moving to TEN -3.5 crosses the 3 margin; applying its 9% mass gives 39.8% fair.
      • Pinnacle held the 1.5-point line throughout the morning; no unaccounted two-point move.
      • Key-number mass is a coarse structural estimate; the 6.8-point gap could be overstated.
    14. Total Points under 37.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both six-game samples combine for 31.7 points per game: Cleveland 17.7 and Tennessee 14.0.
      • 2026 offense EPA/play is negative for both teams (-0.151 Cleveland, -0.1568 Tennessee); Cleveland's defense allows -0.0682 EPA/play.
      • Seven rest days and a non-neutral venue avoid a rest or travel boost that would materially undermine the low-efficiency read; reference market centered near 37.
      • Most likely loss: the combined pace (29.97 and 27.57 seconds per play) creates enough possessions and explosive chances to reach 38.
    15. Tennessee Titans −7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

      Comfortable MarginDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Distinct desk: this is the high-base-rate alternate-spread sleeve, not the plus-money-value fleet; hit rate alone is not profitability.
      • FanDuel live exact-rung reference is Titans -7.5 at -106; Polymarket US offers the Titans side at 40c.
      • Devigged exact-rung reference is 48.1%; 40c implies 40.0%, a calculated 20.2% price edge, above the 15% raised bar.
      • Only 7:13 has elapsed; one early lead is a volatile, small live sample and Cleveland can still erase the margin.
    16. Denzel Boston over 49.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 92.9% average snap share over his last three games, with 38, 45 and 39 routes.
      • The expected-yards baseline is driven by only six games and the last-three gap by three games.
    17. Cleveland Browns over 7.5 first-half team pointsFavorite
      +23%Won

      Taken at 81¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION edge; Browns already have 7 points with 20:32 left in the half and need any further score.
      • Browns season-to-date pace is 29.97 and points per drive 1.471; Tennessee's defensive EPA-to-date is +0.021 allowed per play.
      • The 7.5 rung looks flat/spread-split rather than independently modeled: both first-half team totals were 7.5 despite Tennessee's pregame favorite status; the live price is driven by state.
      • Cleveland's season-to-date offensive EPA is -0.151, so a stalled offense can leave 7 as the final first-half total.
    18. Cleveland Browns by 7 to 14Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi

      NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last five matchup EPA implies Cleveland +0.195 EPA/play versus Tennessee, roughly +11.7 points at 60 plays.
      • Regular-season matchup EPA still favors Cleveland by +0.095 EPA/play, roughly +5.7 points.
      • Blended EPA center is about Cleveland +7 after home-field adjustment; 7 is a key-number concentration point.
      • The last-five EPA sample is only five games and the matchup conversion to points is wide.
    19. Tony Pollard under 146.5 rushing yards
      +87%Won

      Taken at −115 on DraftKings

      Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pollard has 80 yards on 10 carries, but 46 yards came on two touchdown runs; his other eight carries gained 34.
      • His six-game baseline is 349 rushing yards on 87 carries: 14.5 attempts and 4.0 yards per game.
      • At 4:22 Q1, Tennessee's current drive has only 3 yards on 3 plays; the latest Pollard carries were 6 and -3.
      • Tennessee's live offense is strong: 0.789 EPA/play, 80% success rate, and 20% explosive rate.
    20. Cleveland Browns −1.5
      +91%Won

      Taken at −110 on DraftKings

      NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Defense EPA: Cleveland allows -0.0682/play versus Tennessee at +0.0210, a 0.0892/play matchup edge.
      • Cleveland's 71.7 pass-block grade exceeds Tennessee's 67.9; Tennessee's pass-rush win rate is only 9.0%.
      • Week 6 QB signal favored Cleveland: Watson posted 79.6 adjusted QBR versus Ward's 59.3.
      • Watson's season PFF passing grade is only 54.2, with a 25.0% pressure-to-sack rate and 10.9% sack rate.
    21. Tony Pollard under 70.5 rushing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Research grade B: confirmed starter, executable -112 price, and stable season role.
      • 58.2 season rushing yards per game (349 on 87 carries), 12.3 below the 70.5 line.
      • Under 70.5 in 4 of 6 games; under in 3 of the last 5, averaging 62.8 yards.
      • Pollard cleared this number last week with 19 carries and 76 yards; similar efficiency breaks the under.
    22. Cleveland Browns spread −2.5
      +93%Won

      Taken at −108 on DraftKings

      NFL Spread DetectiveDown 53% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • EPA Strategy Score: Cleveland -0.302 vs Tennessee -0.595; edge +0.293.
      • Primary EPA edge is +0.235, clearing the +0.20 trigger.
      • Cleveland's offensive success z-score is -0.734 versus Tennessee's -0.756, while the Browns pair it with stronger defensive components.
      • The primary edge only clears the trigger by 0.035; variance is material.
    23. Cleveland Browns first touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Cleveland has 13 red-zone attempts and 6 conversions; Tennessee has allowed 20 attempts and 12 conversions through six games.
      • Cleveland's 1.471 points per drive exceeds Tennessee's 1.284, supporting slightly more touchdown opportunity despite both offenses' negative EPA.
      • Quinshon Judkins is the confirmed Browns RB starter and RB-room leader at 59.9% snap share; Tennessee's Tyjae Spears is officially out, leaving Tony Pollard as the confirmed lead back.
      • First touchdown is highly sensitive to opening possession, scripted plays, and short-field turnovers; the coin toss/opening receiver is unverified.
    24. Quinshon Judkins over 0.5 touchdownsLong shot
      +194%Won

      Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION, 59.9% snap share, RB-room rank 1, and committee-lead role.
      • Expected RB1 status is supported by a 40.6% run-snap rate versus satellite backs at 8.9% and 19.7%.
      • Cleveland has generated 13 red-zone trips and converted 6 through six games; goal-line role is derived from these proxies, not a single field.
      • Judkins is expected, not confirmed; game-day inactives had not posted at the lookup time.
    25. Tony Pollard under 1.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −103 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5: 3/5 under; L10: 6/10; 2026 season: 4/6 under 1.5 receptions.
      • Pollard averages 1.33 receptions and 2.17 targets per game this season against a 1.5-reception line.
      • He is a confirmed RB1 but has only 13 targets across six games, keeping receiving usage below his rushing workload.
      • Spears and Singleton are out, which could increase Pollard's route and checkdown participation.
    26. Tony Pollard under 17.5 rushing attempts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −103 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5: 4/5 under; L10: 7/10; 2026 season: 5/6 under 17.5.
      • 2026 workload averages 14.5 carries; role-adjusted estimate is 16.3, 6.9% below the line.
      • Confirmed starter with 55.5% offensive snap share and RB1 status; Tennessee's run-block grade is 45.2.
      • L10 crosses the 2025-26 seasons; there is no meaningful H2H sample used.
    27. Cleveland Browns spread +2.5
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US

      BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Cleveland is 4-1 over its last five with +1.6 average margin; Tennessee is 1-4 with -6.4.
      • Last-five EPA/play: Browns offense -0.119 and defense allowed -0.1444; Titans offense -0.1423 and defense allowed +0.0274.
      • PFF overall grade is 68.4 for Cleveland versus 64.0 for Tennessee; +2.5 adds protection over the moneyline or -1.5.
      • Denzel Ward and Quincy Williams remain questionable; Cleveland's expected lineup is not confirmed.
    28. Cam Ward under 3.5 rushing attempts
      +73%Won

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Ward averaged 2.6 rushing attempts across his last five games, 25.7% below the 3.5 line.
      • He stayed under this number in three of five recent games, with 3, 1, 4, 1, and 4 attempts.
      • Cleveland's pregame defensive EPA is -0.0682 per play against a Tennessee offense at -0.1568.
      • The two four-attempt games show a narrow margin and meaningful low-count variance.
    29. Jerry Jeudy over 21.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 30.0 receiving yards per game over his last five, 39.5% above the 21.5 line.
      • Jeudy cleared 21.5 in three of five, including 69 yards last week and 36 in Week 4.
      • Jeudy is a confirmed starter as of 8:32 AM PDT; the posted player prop is active.
      • He has only 12 catches in five games and cleared this line in just three of five.
    30. Under 20.5 first-half total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • rest is even at 7 days each; the angle is EPA/possession, not fatigue.
      • Cleveland's defensive EPA is -0.0682 versus Tennessee's +0.0210; offensive EPA is nearly level (-0.1510 vs -0.1568).
      • PPD baseline is 1.4708 Cleveland plus 1.2835 Tennessee; pace is 29.97 versus 27.57, producing a conservative 19.24-point first-half estimate.
      • No rest mismatch removes the brief's strongest first-half lever.
    31. Total points under 37
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • both offenses are negative EPA/play to date: Cleveland -0.151, Tennessee -0.1568.
      • Quarter-Kelly is 1.2% before the brief's 0.5% cap; recorded stake is 0.5 units.
      • Cleveland is without Myles Garrett and David Njoku, while Denzel Ward is questionable; defensive or offensive absences can create volatility.
    32. Tony Pollard first touchdownLong shot
      +500%Won

      Taken at +500 on DraftKings

      TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model first-TD probability 18% versus 16.7% DraftKings break-even; fair price about +456.
      • Pollard is confirmed as Tennessee's starter, with Tyjae Spears ruled out on the game-day feed.
      • He has 87 carries, 13 targets, a 55.5% season snap share and 47.3% run-snap rate.
      • Tennessee averaged just 1.34 points per drive over its last five games.
    33. Carnell Tate over 4.5 receptions
      +94%Won

      Taken at −106 on DraftKings

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 73.9%-84.1% snap share and 23-37 routes over his last three games.
      • Tate saw 12, 5, and 7 targets; the 8.0-target average supports four-plus catches.
      • He caught 9, 1, and 6 passes; 2 of 3 cleared 4.5 and the mean was 5.3.
      • The 1-catch game shows meaningful weekly volatility despite strong route participation.
    34. Tennessee Titans to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • The 5.61-point model-to-contract gap is the edge, not the payout: Tennessee's home offense is +0.010 EPA/play while Cleveland's road offense is -0.185 EPA/play.
      • Cleveland opened with an interception before its touchdown; Tennessee has produced two touchdown drives, including a 65-yard opening drive.
      • Most likely loss: Cleveland's pregame favorite status and one-score deficit translate into a comeback despite Tennessee's live lead.
    35. Cleveland Browns under 36.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −102 on DraftKings

      Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model fair total: 35.0 points; under probability 53%.
      • Both offenses are below zero EPA/play to date: Cleveland -0.151, Tennessee -0.157.
      • Points per drive are only 1.47 for Cleveland and 1.28 for Tennessee.
      • Cleveland is without Myles Garrett, which could materially lift Tennessee's scoring efficiency.

    Questions

    Who won Browns vs. Titans?

    The Browns won 27–24 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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