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Bengals vs. RavensFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalM&T Bank Stadium
Bengals3–2
35–13Final
Ravens4–2
Score by period
Team1234T
CIN00142135
BAL760013

Top model pick, graded

Won

Cincinnati Bengals to win 59¢

Why Drift likes it: Power rating 63.5%: confirmed Joe Burrow versus confirmed Tyler Huntley with Lamar Jackson out.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 30-18 on this game · +25% return

  1. Cincinnati Bengals to win9 models agreeHigh conviction
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    9 modelsDrift, Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0 +7
    Why 9 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating 63.5%: confirmed Joe Burrow versus confirmed Tyler Huntley with Lamar Jackson out.
    • Cincinnati's offense averages +0.120 EPA/play versus Baltimore's +0.0368; Bengals also have the 14-to-7 day rest edge.
    • Baltimore's defense is much stronger: -0.0558 EPA/play allowed versus Cincinnati's +0.0837 allowed.
    Brewing NFL Moneylines 2.0
    • Joe Burrow and Tyler Huntley are both confirmed starters; Lamar Jackson is confirmed out.
    • Huntley's mobility and Baltimore's home field can narrow Cincinnati's QB advantage; this is a one-game backup-QB sample.
    Sunday Board Pairs
    • Five-game Cincinnati and six-game Baltimore 2026 samples: Bengals offense +0.1200 EPA/play versus Ravens defense -0.0558 allowed; Ravens offense +0.0368 versus Bengals defense +0.0837 allowed.
    • The matchup EPA swing is approximately 0.1111 EPA/play toward Cincinnati before context adjustments; Cincinnati also has 14 rest days versus Baltimore's 7.
    • Most likely loss: Huntley avoids damaging mistakes while Baltimore's 70.8 PFF defense suppresses Cincinnati's offense and home field decides a close game.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Lamar Jackson is ruled out; Baltimore's confirmed replacement is Tyler Huntley.
    • Cincinnati's last-five offense leads Baltimore in EPA/play, 0.120 to 0.008.
    • Baltimore's recent defense is materially stronger: -0.030 EPA allowed/play versus Cincinnati's +0.084.
  2. Cincinnati Bengals spread −2.53 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Novig

    3 modelsKey Rung, Key Number Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Key Rung
    • Pinnacle main CIN -3 at +100 vs BAL +3 at -110 de-vigs to 48.8% for Cincinnati.
    • Moving from -3 to -2.5 crosses the 3-point key number; adding the brief's 9-point mass gives 57.8% fair.
    • The 9% margin-3 adjustment is a rough structural table, not a full margin distribution.
    Key Number Pairs
    • QB gate: Tyler Huntley is the expected Baltimore starter after Lamar Jackson was marked Out at 5:53 AM; Joe Burrow is the expected Cincinnati starter, with neither expected starter Out/Doubtful.
    • Cincinnati leads current offense EPA/play 0.120 to Baltimore's 0.0368 and has the stronger pass-block card: 67.6 grade and 42 pressures allowed versus Baltimore's 53.7 and 69.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati wins by 1-2 or Baltimore wins; -2.5 has no push protection.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Lamar Jackson is out and Tyler Huntley is confirmed for Baltimore; Cincinnati's last-five offense is +0.120 EPA/play versus Baltimore's +0.008.
    • Polymarket US currently offers the matched Bengals -2.5 contract at a 53.5¢ buyer cost.
  3. Cincinnati Bengals −32 models agreeHigh conviction
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, NFL Trench Mismatch
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Joe Burrow is confirmed active; Tyler Huntley is confirmed to replace Lamar Jackson, who is out.
    • Cincinnati leads pregame offense EPA/play 0.120 to Baltimore's 0.0368 and success rate .5082 to .4645.
    • Baltimore owns the stronger defense grade (70.8 versus Cincinnati's 57.0) and has home field.
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • TrenchScore: Cincinnati +0.22 versus Baltimore -0.39; +0.62 edge clears the +0.50 trigger.
    • Primary pass-trench score: Cincinnati +0.24 versus Baltimore -0.41; +0.65 edge clears the +0.25 trigger.
    • The injury component is neutralized at 0.00 for both teams because player-quality and expected-snap-loss weights were not published; Baltimore still has front absences.
  4. Cincinnati Bengals spread −32 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 53.0% Bengals cover: Cincinnati has +0.120 offensive EPA/play and a .508 success rate; Baltimore's Lamar Jackson is ruled out.
    • Cincinnati has 14 rest days versus Baltimore's 7, a meaningful scheduling edge after the quarterback adjustment.
    • Baltimore's defense is materially better by EPA: -0.0558 allowed versus Cincinnati's +0.0837; home field can erase the rating edge.
    Long Way Home
    • Cincinnati leads 2026 offense in EPA/play, 0.0748 to Baltimore's 0.0304, and success rate, 49.4% to 46.3%.
    • Lamar Jackson is ruled out; Baltimore's expected replacement is Tyler Huntley, a material quarterback-availability downgrade for this matchup.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore's defense, allowing -0.1895 EPA/play and 16.1 points per game, suppresses Cincinnati enough for a close Ravens win or one-score game.
  5. Baltimore Ravens +32 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model, Bills Belichicks
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL ATS Line-Shopping & CLV Model
    • Our regressed efficiency board makes Baltimore +1.5; +3 supplies 1.5 points of fair-line value.
    • Ravens defense allowed -0.056 EPA/play versus Cincinnati's +0.084; home field offsets the Bengals' offensive edge.
    • Lamar Jackson is out; Tyler Huntley is confirmed to start, but the backup adjustment remains uncertain.
    Bills Belichicks
    • Coach record differential: J. Minter is 4-2 (66.7%) versus Zac Taylor 55-65-1 (45.5%), a 21.2-point career edge.
    • Baltimore's recent defense allowed -0.159 EPA/play versus Cincinnati's -0.056, supporting better situational execution.
    • Lamar Jackson is officially out; Tyler Huntley substantially widens Baltimore's offensive variance.
  6. Baltimore Ravens to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +130 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPick with Pink (NFL) Money lines, Skip Bayless Tracker
    Why 2 models like it
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • Empirical calibration: home teams went 48.8% in 301 games with comparable home net-EPA differential (-0.15 to -0.05); this matchup is -0.1397.
    • Own win probability 48.8% versus a 40.6% Pinnacle-de-vigged home baseline: +8.2 percentage points.
    • Pressure evidence is conflicted: PFF matchup grades favor Cincinnati, while opportunity-normalized pressure gaps favor Baltimore's rush by 26.8 points versus Cincinnati's 15.9.
    Skip Bayless Tracker
    • Skip Bayless feed item on 10/25: “the Bengals had no chance today in Baltimore” and “Burrow looks overwhelmed.”
    • Baltimore leads Cincinnati 13-0 at halftime, confirming the game-state basis of the call.
    • 0 halftime lead can still be erased by Cincinnati in the second half.
Show all 33 picks
  1. Game total under 46.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsLong Way Home, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Long Way Home
    • Lamar Jackson is officially out; Baltimore scored 10 points last week, removing its primary rushing and explosive-play engine.
    • Baltimore went under 46.5 in 3 of 6 games; the quarterback downgrade pushes my projection toward 43-44 total points.
    • Most likely loss: Cincinnati and Baltimore trade explosive touchdowns, reaching 47 or more.
    Number Earned
    • 57% fair probability (~-133); DraftKings offers -115 on the exact 46.5 total.
    • Lamar Jackson is officially out, removing Baltimore's highest-impact offensive component from the matchup.
    • Cincinnati's last five games averaged 47.4 combined points and its offense has +0.120 EPA/play.
  2. Baltimore Ravens spread +3.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ravens defense -0.0558 EPA/play versus Cincinnati defense +0.0837 allowed; home field offsets Cincinnati's extra rest.
    • Most likely loss: Baltimore loses by four or more; Tyler Huntley remains a major quarterback-variance source.
  3. Cincinnati Bengals exact margin of victory 15+Long shot
    +614%Won

    Taken at 14¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle has Cincinnati -3 at +102 and Baltimore +3 at -113.
    • 15+ remains a high-variance tail, and favourite-longshot bias may overwhelm the projection.
  4. Game second-half total over 21.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; EDGE CLASS: INTERNAL COHERENCE.
    • Full-game total 48.5 versus 1H 23.5 and 2H 21.5 leaves a 3.5-point gap when the half thresholds are summed.
    • A modest late-game scoring bump makes a 2H expectation above 21.5 more plausible than the board's 54c price.
    • Lamar Jackson is listed out, and the unconfirmed replacement/game-state response could materially change second-half efficiency.
  5. Zay Flowers over 5.5 receptions
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on DraftKings

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.3 receptions per game across his last three outings (8, 8, 6).
    • Snap share rose from 73.4% to 81.6% to 87.7%, with 34-39 routes in the last three.
    • Cincinnati's recent defense allowed +0.0837 EPA per play, while its 42.8 coverage grade is a favorable matchup signal.
    • Huntley completed only 19 of 31 passes last week, so efficiency can suppress catches despite routes.
  6. Joe Burrow over 260.5 passing yards
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Shoulders of GiantsDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters: Cincinnati's full OL (Karras, Fairchild, Risner, Brown, Mims) and Burrow are active; Baltimore's defensive front is confirmed, with Broderick Washington Jr. out.
    • Pass trench edge: Cincinnati OL grades 67.6 with 97.5 PBE versus Baltimore DL 59.6 and a 9.5% pass-rush win rate; run side is near-neutral (CIN run-block 62.7 versus BAL run-defense 60.5).
    • Mechanism confirmed: Burrow's PFF sack rate was 0.0%-3.4% in four of five regular-season games; the one 13.9% outlier was Week 2.
    • Baltimore's defense is still positive overall: its pregame defensive EPA is -0.0558, and home-field pressure could beat the protection matchup.
  7. Derrick Henry anytime touchdown scorer
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Run First & Anytime TD QuantDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 15 of Baltimore's 17 inside-10 rushing attempts over the last four games (88.2% share).
    • Henry is confirmed starting; Lamar Jackson is out, concentrating goal-line rushing opportunity.
    • Baltimore's team-total market is 27.5, and Cincinnati ranks 8th-worst of 32 in defensive EPA/play allowed (+0.0837).
    • Henry scored zero rushing touchdowns last week while backup QB Tyler Huntley scored one.
  8. Mark Andrews over 29.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 42.5% route-based shortfall: 59 actual yards versus 103 expected across his last 3 games.
    • 67.4% average snap share with 25, 30, and 24 routes in those games; all three clear the 55% opportunity gate.
    • Conservative 34-yard median projection is 16% above DraftKings' 29.5-yard line.
    • Jackson's absence creates real quarterback and target-tree uncertainty with Huntley starting.
  9. Zay Flowers over 63.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 39.5% route-based shortfall: 237 actual yards versus 392 expected across his last 3 games.
    • 80.9% average snap share across the last 3, with 34, 39, and 31 routes.
    • Conservative 80-yard median projection is 26% above FanDuel's 63.5-yard line.
    • Lamar Jackson is out; Tyler Huntley's passing efficiency and target distribution are the key unknowns.
  10. Baltimore Ravens under 28.5 team pointsFavorite
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26.5 home points/game (106 in four); Lamar Jackson is ruled out and Tyler Huntley is expected, pulling my fit to roughly 22, 23.
    • Ravens offense EPA/play is +0.0368 versus Cincinnati defensive EPA allowed +0.0837; the weak defense is the over route, but the QB downgrade keeps the fit below 29.
    • Coherence: the 46 game total and Baltimore -3 imply a mechanical 24.5/21.5 split; 28.5 is an upper-tail ladder rung, not the central split.
    • Huntley and the broader lineups are still expected rather than confirmed; backup efficiency and play-calling remain uncertain.
  11. Cincinnati Bengals by 7 to 14Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

    NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • EPA matchup is +0.226 per play for Cincinnati: Bengals offense +0.120 vs Baltimore defense -0.030; Ravens offense +0.008 vs Cincinnati defense +0.084.
    • Recent success rate favors Cincinnati 50.8% to 46.3%; points per drive favors Cincinnati 2.558 to 2.119.
    • Lamar Jackson is confirmed out; model centers Cincinnati around a 5-point win versus the market's Baltimore -2.5 spread.
    • The spread moved roughly 1 to 1.5 points toward Baltimore from opening, against this thesis.
  12. Joe Burrow under 24.5 pass completions
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live Q1 state: Baltimore leads 7-0 with 5:42 left; Burrow is 2-of-6 for 12 yards after Cincinnati's opening possessions.
    • Cincinnati is at -0.412 live EPA/play, 22.2% success rate, and zero explosive plays; Baltimore's live defensive EPA/play is -0.412.
    • The completion market is the cleaner live expression than Burrow's 252.5-yard under: early short gains have not produced efficient drives, while 25 completions are still required.
    • Six attempts is a very thin sample, and Burrow's completion rate can regress sharply toward baseline.
  13. Ja'Marr Chase under 7.5 receptions
    +79%Won

    Taken at −126 on DraftKings

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Direct sample: 5 games, 38 targets, 27 receptions; 97.5% route rate.
    • Recent receptions: 2, 7, 9, 3, 6; four of five stayed below 7.5.
    • p_raw 68.0%; p_market 52.6%; shrink_factor 0.50 -> p_final 60.3%, final edge +7.7 points.
    • A trailing script could push Chase above 10 targets and overwhelm the under.
  14. Zay Flowers over 64.5 receiving yards
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 60% modeled hit probability versus 52.8% DraftKings break-even at -112.
    • Flowers cleared 64.5 in 3 of his last 4 games, averaging 80.3 yards.
    • Cincinnati's defense has allowed +0.0837 EPA per play, a favorable matchup for Baltimore's passing game.
    • Flowers' four-game sample is noisy; the 118-yard game materially raises the average.
  15. Cincinnati Bengals first team touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0.12 away offensive EPA/play and 2.558 points/drive exceed Baltimore's 0.0368 and 2.291.
    • Joe Burrow and Chase Brown are confirmed; Baltimore's Lamar Jackson is out and Tyler Huntley starts.
    • Cincinnati has converted 10/17 red-zone trips; Baltimore's defense allowed opponents 11/19.
    • First touchdown is coin-toss/opening-script sensitive; no toss or opening-drive tendency is confirmed.
  16. Chase Brown 1+ touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chase Brown is the expected Cincinnati RB1 and workhorse: 70.4% snap share, 58.0% route participation, 1st in the RB room.
    • Cincinnati has produced 17 red-zone drives with 9 touchdowns; Baltimore opponents have converted 11 of 19 red-zone trips (57.9%).
    • Joe Burrow is expected to start; Cincinnati leads Baltimore in offensive EPA/play (0.120 vs 0.037) and points per drive (2.558 vs 2.291). Assuming the market-favored Bengals sustain positive script, goal-line equity concentrates on Brown.
    • Samaje Perine still carries a committee label and 37.4% snap share; a split or a short-yardage substitution can erase Brown's edge.
  17. Chase Brown over 11.5 rushing attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +103 on DraftKings

    Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Exact line: over hit 4/5 in Brown's L5, 9/10 in his L10, and 4/5 this season.
    • Brown averages 14.2 attempts in his latest five comparable games, 23.5% above the 11.5 line.
    • He is the confirmed Cincinnati starter with a 70.4% offensive snap share and a workhorse role label.
    • Samaje Perine had 14 carries to Brown's 13 in Cincinnati's last game, so the backfield may be rebalanced.
  18. Total points over 47.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional check: backing Over 47.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. No independent sharp reference used.
    • The game is live at 7-0 with 6:41 in Q1; an early score can distort pace and the over still needs sustained scoring.
  19. Cincinnati Bengals −3.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two of three measures agree: Bengals are thinner at the quote and deeper overall; levels are tied 3-3. Quote is +124 (44.64c).
    • Backing Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: Bengals 3 versus Ravens 3, so this is a two-measure signal rather than a three-measure confirmation.
  20. Ja'Marr Chase under 83.5 receiving yards
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 57.8 receiving yards per game over his last five is 30.8% below the 83.5 line.
    • Chase stayed under 83.5 in four of five recent games; the lone over was 98 yards.
    • Baltimore's defense is at -0.0558 EPA/play to date, while Cincinnati's offense faces the matchup's stronger unit.
    • The sample is only five games; confirmed starter status does not remove coverage or game-script variance.
  21. Total points under 47
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Lamar Jackson is officially out; confirmed Tyler Huntley starts for Baltimore, while Joe Burrow is confirmed for Cincinnati.
    • Baltimore's offense is only +0.0368 EPA/play through six games, and the quarterback downgrade is now confirmed rather than projected.
    • Cincinnati's offense is +0.1200 EPA/play, so Burrow-led scoring can break the under despite Baltimore's quarterback change.
  22. Game first-half total over 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current pace inputs (32.01 and 30.83 seconds/play) imply about 10.27 combined first-half drives after historical pace adjustment.
    • Matchup-adjusted 2026 scoring efficiency projects roughly 24.5 first-half points from 2.291 BAL and 2.558 CIN points per drive.
    • The fitted probability is 55%; dispersion uses square-root scaling with drives, not a linear halving of full-game variance.
    • Lamar Jackson is ruled out; Tyler Huntley is expected to start, creating meaningful downside for Baltimore scoring.
  23. Tee Higgins over 65.5 receiving yards
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Target Quality YardsUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF REGPO, 5 games: depth-weighted aDOT proxy 14.3; 16.7% deep and 47.6% medium targets.
    • NGS REG, 4 qualifying 2026 games: 13.9 intended air yards and 2.42-yard separation, above his 2025 comparison.
    • 2.49 YPRR, 88.3 pass-route grade, 96.0% route rate; NGS air-yards share averaged 46.2%.
    • Week 7 Higgins-versus-Ravens CB assignment is unpublished; no true shadow is established, capping this at 0.5u.
  24. Game total under 46
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game 46 is 1 point above the 21.5 + 23.5 team-total sum and 3 points above 2× the 21.5 first-half total.
    • Personnel is confirmed: Joe Burrow starts for Cincinnati; Tyler Huntley replaces Lamar Jackson for Baltimore, with core skill starters confirmed active.
    • Most likely loss: the 62.836-play pace and positive PROE produce enough explosive drives to reach 47 or more.
  25. Cincinnati Bengals 1Q to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Division Dogs 1st Q MLDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cincinnati averages 5.6 first-quarter points over its last 5 games, clearing the 4.0 scripted-scoring gate.
    • Lamar Jackson was ruled out at 5:53am PT, weakening Baltimore's early offensive baseline.
    • Baltimore's first-quarter defense has allowed -0.235 EPA/play over 63 recent first-quarter plays, far better than the -0.05 slow-start threshold.
  26. Bengals-Ravens first-half total under 23.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    NFL First Half Derivation QuantDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected first-half total is 21.5 points versus the 23.5 market line, a 2.0-point discrepancy.
    • Current-season first-half scoring: Cincinnati averages 14.4 points; Baltimore averages 17.5, but only 9.5 in Tyler Huntley's two starts.
    • Opponent-adjusted split projects Cincinnati 11.7 and Baltimore 9.8 first-half points.
    • Baltimore has averaged 6.0 first-half drives against Cincinnati's 4.6, creating possession upside for the over.
  27. Derrick Henry over 17.2 fantasy points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    NFL Fantasy Point Props SimulatorUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19.5 season PPR points per game from 130 carries, 534 rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns and 9 receptions.
    • Henry owns Baltimore's stable early-down role; Lamar Jackson is officially out, creating a potential carry-share shift.
    • Baltimore-Cincinnati totals 46.0, while Cincinnati's recent offense posts +0.120 EPA/play and 25.6 points per game.
    • Lamar's absence can reduce Baltimore's scoring and goal-line efficiency despite possible extra Henry carries.

Questions

Who won Bengals vs. Ravens?

The Bengals won 35–13 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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