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Steelers vs. SaintsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalStade de France
Steelers4-2
16–10Final
Saints2-4
Score by period
Team1234T
PIT3103016
NO0100010

Top model pick, graded

Won

First-quarter tie 79¢

Why Level Terms likes it: Handicap identity implies a 0.11 first-quarter draw: PIT +0.5 0.56 minus PIT -0.5 0.45.

Level TermsUp 76% return this season · 53 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 31-22 on this game · +10% return

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers to win6 models agree
    +61%Won

    Taken at −164 on FanDuel

    6 modelshigh-confidence main markets, Resting Money +4
    Why 6 models like it
    high-confidence main markets
    • 4-2 record versus New Orleans' 2-4 mark, with Pittsburgh +1.5 recent margin versus New Orleans -4.3.
    • Last-five EPA/play favors Pittsburgh, +0.02 offense versus New Orleans -0.08.
    • The 63% estimate is only modestly above FanDuel's roughly 62% break-even price.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are 3 vs 3; two of three measures agree, with large raw stakes reducing the chance of a tiny-order artifact.
    • Directional coherence: backing Pittsburgh Steelers, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Sharp-reference secondary check: Pinnacle had Pittsburgh -149 versus ProphetX -146.
    • The book-level measure does not corroborate: 3 levels each, so this is not a three-measure signal.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Recent five-game EPA: Steelers offense +0.02/play and defense -0.00 allowed; Saints were -0.08 and +0.12.
    • No confirmed starters are posted; Chris Olave, Pat Freiermuth, Rico Dowdle and DeShon Elliott remain questionable.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Pittsburgh's six-game profile is stronger: defensive EPA/play -0.04 vs New Orleans +0.08; offense -0.04 vs -0.08.
    • Recent form favors Pittsburgh: 4-2 and +1.5 points per game over six versus New Orleans 2-4 and -4.3.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed; a late quarterback or key inactive change would invalidate this pregame read.
  2. New Orleans Saints spread +32 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, TheSHARKZ🤯🤫😱🗝️
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating makes New Orleans +3 a 53.0% cover; PIT has the better EPA profile, but the model keeps the game inside the key three points.
    • PIT offense -0.04 EPA/play and defense -0.03 EPA allowed versus NO -0.10 and +0.04; PIT explosive rate leads .1079 to .0912.
    • Pittsburgh owns the stronger seven-game EPA profile and can win by four or more.
    TheSHARKZ🤯🤫😱🗝️
    • Net EPA/play: New Orleans -0.06 versus Pittsburgh -0.10, a +0.03 dog differential.
    • DraftKings moneyline shortened from +140 opening to +130 current, indicating modest Saints support.
    • The +0.03 EPA edge is below the +0.05 high-conviction threshold.
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers first-half winnerFavorite2 models agree
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsLocker Room, Split Decision
    Why 2 models like it
    Locker Room
    • Pittsburgh leads 3-0 with 4:38 left in Q1; the live state already clears a zero-margin start.
    • Pittsburgh's to-date offense is -0.04 EPA/play versus New Orleans at -0.08; Pittsburgh's defensive EPA allowed is also better, -0.04 versus New Orleans +0.08.
    • A three-point lead is fragile with most of the half remaining; a Saints touchdown or short-field turnover can erase it.
    Split Decision
    • Rest gap: 0 days; both teams have 7 days, so this is not a fatigue edge.
    • Pittsburgh defense -0.04 EPA/play allowed versus New Orleans +0.08, a 0.11 EPA/play defensive gap.
    • Both teams are fully rested, removing the brief's strongest first-half lever.
  4. First-quarter tieFavoriteHigh conviction
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US

    Level TermsDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Handicap identity implies a 0.11 first-quarter draw: PIT +0.5 0.56 minus PIT -0.5 0.45.
    • The direct draw contract is quoted at 0.22; the venue's own prices contradict by 0.11.
    • Both handicap sides and all three winner legs are quoted; the 1Q ladder is monotone.
    • A scoreless or matching-score quarter wins the tie; one late field goal loses it.
  5. Over 41.5 totalLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main total 42.5; devigged Over probability 50.4%.
    • Seven current-season games per team; QBs were confirmed live and key-number mass was computed from 2,853 games.
    • Outdoor Stade de France forecast has 16 mph wind; weather and two relatively slow paces haircut the model toward the under.
  6. New Orleans Saints exact margin of victory 1-6Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Exact ChangeUp 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle centers the game near Pittsburgh -3, but the Saints’ narrow-win bucket remains live.
    • This bucket contains the highest-frequency margin keys, so generic smooth pricing can under-allocate its probability mass.
    • Exploratory rejects: Pittsburgh 1, 6 at 24¢ and 7, 14 at 24¢; New Orleans 7, 14 at 15¢ and 15+ at 8¢ were not as attractive under the reweighting.
    • Only about a 2-point probability edge; sampling variance can overwhelm it.
Show all 46 picks
  1. Pittsburgh Steelers spread over 2.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Key NumberUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six current-season games each: Pittsburgh has the better combined EPA profile, plus a 1.9-point explosive-rate edge; confirmed QBs are Rodgers and Shough.
    • New Orleans averages 2.10 points per drive versus Pittsburgh's 1.90 and converted 10 of 13 fourth downs versus Pittsburgh's 3 of 6.
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −3.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Sunday LedgerDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh's six-game form has better defensive EPA/play (-0.04 vs New Orleans +0.08) and explosive rate (10.6% vs 8.7%).
    • New Orleans has the better points-per-drive mark (2.10 vs 1.90) and has converted 10 of 13 fourth downs (76.9%).
  3. Under 43.5 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 55.2% under: Pittsburgh is at -0.04 offensive EPA/play with -0.04 defensive EPA allowed; New Orleans is -0.08 offensively.
    • Both teams have modest success rates (PIT .4384, NO .4403), low explosive rates (PIT .1058, NO .0867), and slow pace (29.71/27.95 seconds per play).
    • Both starting quarterbacks are expected rather than officially confirmed; Tyler Shough and Aaron Rodgers remain subject to late inactive news.
  4. Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +245 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(any TD) 31.5% versus DraftKings break-even 29.0% at +245.
    • Freiermuth has 4 receiving touchdowns on 29 targets through six games.
    • His 284 snaps and 202 routes provide a stable red-zone access baseline despite a three-target latest game.
    • Touchdown rate is likely to regress from 4 scores in six games.
  5. Jaylen Warren first touchdownLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +550 on DraftKings

    TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model P(first TD) 16.5% versus DraftKings break-even 15.4% at +550.
    • Warren has 84 carries and 30 targets through six games with a 75.9% offensive snap share.
    • Pittsburgh's 34.3% season rush rate and Warren's workhorse role concentrate early-touch opportunity.
    • Warren has only 2 touchdowns in six games and did not score last week.
  6. Game first-half total over 21.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NO 2.10 and PIT 1.90 points per drive; pace inputs imply roughly 5.5, 5.7 first-half drives per team.
    • That produces a fitted first-half total around 22.0, 22.8 points, above 21.5.
    • Variance scales with the square root of drives, not linearly with half the game; the fitted tail is wider than simple halving.
    • Only six 2026 games inform the points-per-drive inputs, so efficiency estimates are noisy.
  7. New Orleans Saints first-half +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket prices Pittsburgh -2.5 in the 1H at 50¢, making Saints +2.5 51¢; the full-game board is also Pittsburgh -2.5.
    • Square-root scaling: first-half margin standard deviation shrinks with √(drives), not by half, so copying the full-game -2.5 into 1H overstates Pittsburgh's early margin.
    • No depth-chart starters are confirmed; questionable personnel including Pat Freiermuth, Keeanu Benton, Chris Olave and Cesar Ruiz could alter the opening script.
  8. Jaylen Warren over 65.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Usage AdventureDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 81.3 rushing yards per game across his last three; 65.5 is 80.6% of that projection.
    • New Orleans allowed 138.8 opponent rushing yards per game over its last four: 153, 205, 113, and 84.
    • Pittsburgh is the clear moneyline favorite, supporting a lead-and-rush script; FanDuel gives the lower 65.5 line at -113.
    • The latest three-game rushing sample includes a 50-yard outlier, and Warren's snap share has declined each week.
  9. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −4.5
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX NFL LadderUp 9% last 7 days
  10. Germie Bernard over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −158 on FanDuel

    Snap ShareDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starter; Weeks 4-6 role was 39.4%/22, 91.7%/36, and 93.7%/57 snap share/routes.
    • Observed WR2 at 56.6% season snaps; live lineup lists Michael Pittman Jr., Roman Wilson, and Ben Skowronek out.
    • Absorption is evidenced: Bernard reached 36 routes after Pittman's absence, then 57 with Pittman and Wilson absent.
    • Most likely loss: the expanded route role does not convert into five catches and Bernard finishes with four or fewer.
  11. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −2.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    Key RungDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main spread is Pittsburgh -3 at -110 versus New Orleans +3 at +100; de-vigged Pittsburgh fair is 51.2%.
    • Adding the brief's approximately 9% mass at margin 3 makes Pittsburgh -2.5 fair about 60.2%.
    • Closest qualifying rung to the Pinnacle line; the key number crossed is 3, with no table gap above 8 points.
    • The 9% margin-at-3 input is an approximate key-number table, not a game-specific distribution.
  12. Germie Bernard over 53.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Early DownUp 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snap share jumped 39.4% to 91.7% to 93.7% across the last three games.
    • Route participation rose to 57 in Week 6; Bernard posted 80 and 87 receiving yards the last two weeks.
    • New Orleans allowed 157.8 WR receiving yards per game over the last four.
    • The recent production is a small two-game sample, and 53.5 still requires a normal target share.
  13. Pittsburgh Steelers under 43.5 total
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on BetOnline

    Brewing NFL Totals 2.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup model projects 43.0 points: both offenses are negative in EPA/play, with Pittsburgh -0.04 and New Orleans -0.08.
    • Pittsburgh and New Orleans combine for a 0.88 success rate, while explosive rates are only 10.6% and 8.7%.
    • Historical Grade A analog: 204 games from 2022-25 with comparable combined EPA and pace averaged 42.91 points; under 43.5 hit 54.9%.
    • New Orleans allowed 29.7 points per game and +0.08 defensive EPA/play in its six-game sample, creating a real shootout path.
  14. Total Points under 42.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game 2026 samples: Pittsburgh offense is -0.04 EPA/play and New Orleans is -0.08; Pittsburgh defense allows -0.04 EPA/play versus New Orleans at +0.08.
    • Pace is elevated (29.71 Pittsburgh, 27.95 New Orleans), but both offenses' negative EPA profiles temper the possession count's scoring impact.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed active: Aaron Rodgers at 5:15 AM and Tyler Shough at 5:04 AM; both teams have seven rest days at a neutral site.
    • Most likely loss: Pittsburgh exploits New Orleans' +0.08 defensive EPA allowed and the game reaches 43 points.
  15. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −4
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Sunday Board PairsUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • six 2026 games per team clear the coverage gate; the efficiency matrix favors Pittsburgh on a neutral field.
    • Pittsburgh offense is -0.04 EPA/play versus New Orleans defense at +0.08 allowed; New Orleans offense is -0.08 versus Pittsburgh defense at -0.04 allowed, a 0.15 EPA/play matchup swing toward Pittsburgh.
    • PFF 2026 REGPO card: Pittsburgh defense 72.6 versus New Orleans 59.0; run defense is 76.8 versus 55.5.
    • Most likely loss: New Orleans keeps the neutral-site game within one score, with Pittsburgh's negative offensive EPA producing a low-margin Saints cover.
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers under 9.5 first-half team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh's season-to-date offensive EPA is -0.04, while the Saints defense is permissive at +0.08 EPA allowed.
    • The 38.5 game total and Pittsburgh +3.5 imply roughly 8.75 first-half points for Pittsburgh by a spread-split derivation; 9.5 is a modest round-up.
    • Pittsburgh has 3 points on 2 drives despite 88 yards and one red-zone trip; its live points-per-drive is 1.5, requiring 7 more points to beat this line.
    • Pittsburgh's 29.7-second season pace and 88 yards can create another scoring drive quickly.
  17. Chris Olave over 74.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current six-game distribution gives p_raw 65%; Olave has 61 targets and 580 yards.
    • Route rate is 93.5% with 2.50 yards per route; target baseline is 10.2 per game.
    • Exact FanDuel market is -113/-113, so p_market is 50.0%.
    • Olave cleared 74.5 in only four of six games; his last two yardage lines were 46 and 43.
  18. Game total under 43.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Pigskin PeteDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-six offense EPA/play is negative for both teams: Pittsburgh -0.04, New Orleans -0.08.
    • Combined recent pace is slow at 29.71 and 27.95 seconds per play, limiting possessions.
    • Outdoor forecast shows 16 mph wind with 37 mph gusts at Stade de France, a passing-efficiency drag.
    • The total has already fallen one point, leaving only a modest price edge.
  19. Jaylen Warren over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s NFL Live EV HunterUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Warren already has 2 receiving involvements/catches and 9 total involved plays through Q1; current role is materially active.
    • Pittsburgh has produced +0.07 EPA/play and 37.5% success on 16 tracked EPA plays; New Orleans' pregame defensive EPA allowed was +0.08.
    • At 3-0 entering Q2, the close script supports continued short-area RB targets; this is preferable to Warren rush attempts 18.5 at -115.
    • The live role sample is only one quarter; two catches can be an early-drive spike rather than a stable route/target rate.
  20. Jaylen Warren first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +500 on FanDuel

    NFL First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 18% model probability; fair price about +456 versus FanDuel +500 (16.7% raw implied).
    • Warren is the verified RB1/workhorse at 75.9% of snaps, with 11 red-zone credited rush/target plays and 3 inside-10 plays through six games.
    • New Orleans has allowed 16 touchdowns on 26 opponent red-zone attempts (61.5%), a favorable finish matchup for Pittsburgh's lead back.
    • Warren has only 1 inside-10 rushing play; his other inside-10 involvement was receiving, so goal-line carry control is unproven.
  21. Game total over 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season scoring averages imply 48.2 combined points, 4.7 above the posted total.
    • Last-five game totals average 46.4 for Pittsburgh and 53.8 for New Orleans.
    • Both teams are 4-2 over 43.5 this season; small sample, but directionally consistent.
    • Both offenses have negative season EPA/play: Pittsburgh -0.04 and New Orleans -0.08.
  22. Pittsburgh Steelers first touchdown
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the PIT first-TD contract is quoted on both sides, with only the usage matchup creating the edge.
    • PIT has 15 red-zone trips through six games; New Orleans has allowed 26 opponent trips, or 4.33 per game.
    • Jaylen Warren is a confirmed starter with a 75.9% snap share and workhorse role; Pittsburgh's goal-line equity is concentrated.
    • Saints offense leads Pittsburgh in points per drive, 2.10 to 1.90, and has home-field position.
  23. Alvin Kamara 1+ touchdownsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

    PaydirtUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current depth chart and expected game lineup both place Kamara RB1; Etienne is ESPN-live Injured Reserve.
    • Kamara 1+ TD is priced at 21¢; my usage-based estimate is 28%.
    • Goal-line-role judgment is derived from RB1 status and team red-zone proxies, not a literal goal-line field.
    • Lineup remains expected rather than confirmed; Kamara had limited official practice with a back issue.
  24. Pittsburgh Steelers spread −3
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pittsburgh's pregame EPA profile is better on both sides: -0.04 offense and -0.04 defense allowed versus New Orleans at -0.08 and +0.08.
    • Steelers lead the recent five-game efficiency board in offense EPA/play (+0.02 to -0.08) and explosive rate (10.6% to 7.9%).
    • Pittsburgh owns the stronger 2026 record (4-2 versus 2-4) and team grade (75.5 versus 71.5); neutral venue removes Saints home-field benefit.
    • Pittsburgh's most recent offense posted -0.26 EPA/play, showing meaningful week-to-week volatility.
  25. Pittsburgh Steelers first-half to win
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 59% BETALAB estimate versus 57.3% Pinnacle first-half prior; +1.7 percentage points.
    • Recent EPA favors Pittsburgh: +0.02 offense and -0.00 defensive EPA allowed per play versus New Orleans -0.08 and +0.12.
    • Steelers are 4-2 versus Saints 2-4, and Pittsburgh leads the team-grade layer 75.5 to 71.5, especially defense 72.6 to 59.0.
    • Estimated win probability range is 55%-62%; first-half scoring and field-position variance are wide.
  26. Over 42.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence: backing over 42.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Sharp-reference secondary check: Pinnacle showed 42.5 over -115.
    • The book-level measure is tied at 3-3, so the third corroborating measure is absent.
  27. New Orleans Saints −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Backing New Orleans Saints, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book levels: Saints 3 vs Steelers 3; two measures agree, with raw thin-side quote size comfortably above the few-hundred-dollar durability rule of thumb. ProphetX price is +152, or 39.68¢ claim price.
    • Only two of three measures support the read; book-level count is tied rather than corroborating Saints.
  28. Juwan Johnson over 3.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Johnson averaged 4.4 receptions over his last five games, 25.7% above the 3.5 line.
    • He exceeded this line in 4 of his last 5 games despite a zero-catch outing last week.
    • Johnson has 34 targets in six games, or 5.7 per game, supporting repeatable opportunity.
    • Johnson's most recent game produced zero catches, showing substantial weekly volatility.
  29. Aaron Rodgers over 35.0 pass attempts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 38.6 attempts per game over his last five starts, 10.3% above the 35.0 line.
    • Rodgers cleared this line in 3 of his last 5 games, including 49 attempts last week.
    • Pittsburgh owns a 65.7% season pass rate and 29.7-second pace per play.
    • Pittsburgh is favored in a 42.5-point game, creating a path to a run-heavy second half.
  30. Pittsburgh Steelers first-half spread NO 3.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest gap: 0 days; both teams have 7 days, so this is a close-game projection rather than a fatigue angle.
    • Pittsburgh's defense is better by 0.11 EPA/play allowed (+0.08 New Orleans versus -0.04 Pittsburgh), but Pittsburgh's offense is only 0.04 EPA/play better.
    • there is no directly comparable sharp first-half spread; this is model-plus-venue-self-reference and therefore exploratory.
  31. Under 21.5 first-half total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is even at 7 days each; this is an EPA/possession read, not a rest edge.
    • EPA gap: Pittsburgh defense -0.04 vs New Orleans +0.08 allowed/play, a 0.11-play defensive advantage.
    • Both teams have 7 days rest; there is no front-loaded fatigue advantage to reinforce the under.
  32. Total points under 43.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both offenses are negative in current-season EPA/play: New Orleans -0.08 and Pittsburgh -0.04 through six games.
    • Confirmed starting QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Tyler Shough; seven days of rest and neutral-site context avoid an extra home-offense boost.
    • New Orleans' defense is allowing +0.08 EPA/play, creating a path for Pittsburgh to score efficiently despite its own offensive profile.
  33. New Orleans Saints +2.5 first half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    Half MeasureUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Internal coherence + projection: full-game Pinnacle spread is New Orleans -3, implying roughly NO +1.5 in the first half; Novig offers NO +2.5.
    • The extra 1.0 point is the brief's minimum qualifying gap in New Orleans' favor.
    • New Orleans averaged 7.2 first-half points over its last six; Pittsburgh averaged 10.5, supporting a competitive, lower-margin opening.
    • The one-point model gap is only the minimum; first-half variance and field-goal sequencing dominate a small edge.
  34. Pittsburgh Steelers −3
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS ModelDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My fair spread is Pittsburgh -4.6, a 1.6-point discrepancy versus the -3 consensus.
    • Pregame EPA inputs favor Pittsburgh's defense: -0.04 allowed/play versus New Orleans at +0.08.
    • PFF run-block grades favor Pittsburgh 73.5 to 58.1; the Steelers retain the key-number -3.
    • Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers' 2026 PFF passing grade is 63.1 versus Tyler Shough's 74.6.
  35. Tyler Shough under 221.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 16 mph sustained wind at the outdoor Stade de France clears the >15 mph catalyst gate.
    • Shough averages 239.7 passing yards per game, so the forecast supplies a plausible downward adjustment to the 221.5 threshold.
    • Under 221.5 is actively priced at DraftKings -111.
    • Shough's six-game average is 18.2 yards above the line, leaving little margin if wind underperforms.
  36. Aaron Rodgers under 230.5 passing yards
    +90%Won

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 16 mph sustained wind at the outdoor venue clears the brief's weather gate.
    • Rodgers averages 247.8 passing yards per game, giving the weather a meaningful efficiency target against a 230.5 line.
    • Under 230.5 is actively priced at DraftKings -111.
    • Rodgers' six-game average is 17.3 yards above this line; the number is not inflated absent a weather adjustment.
  37. Steelers–Saints under 43.5
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    WeathermanDown 11% profit over 17 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 16 mph sustained wind at outdoor Stade de France clears the >15 mph catalyst gate.
    • New Orleans' recent offense is -0.08 EPA/play with a 43.6% success rate and 7.9% explosive-play rate.
    • Under 43.5 is actively priced at DraftKings -115.
    • Both teams' recent five-game scoring averages combine to 47.8 points, above 43.5.
  38. Game total under 42.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Pace LedgerDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game 42.5 is 0.5 above the 19.5 + 22.5 team-total sum.
    • 42.5 is 1.5 above twice the 20.5 first-half total (41.0).
    • Confirmed personnel: Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Shough, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are active starters; both sides cleared the ESPN game-day gate.
    • The internal gaps are modest: 0.5 points versus team totals and 1.5 versus doubled first-half pricing; normal scoring variance dominates.
  39. New Orleans Saints under 20.5 team points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    One ColumnUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection / matchup: New Orleans carries -0.08 offensive EPA/play against Pittsburgh's -0.04 defensive EPA/play allowed; both point lower than the board.
    • New Orleans averages 2.10 points/drive, but its six-game offense sample faces a materially better Pittsburgh defensive EPA profile.
    • Venue is outdoor Stade de France; 16-mph wind and 37-mph gusts are especially unfavorable to New Orleans' 61.2% pass-rate offense.
    • New Orleans has scored 25.3 points per game and converted 16 of 19 recent red-zone trips (84.2%).
  40. Total points under 44.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number PairsDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • exact 44 occurred 108 of 2,853 regular/postseason games (3.8%); under 44.5 captures that mass, while under 43.5 is -111 / 52.61¢, only 3.14 points cheaper.
    • DraftKings and FanDuel show 43.5, while Pinnacle references 42.5; both support the under direction.
    • Efficiency read: Pittsburgh's last-10 offense EPA/play is -0.06 with defense allowed -0.04; New Orleans is -0.11 offensively with +0.04 allowed.
    • Most likely loss: New Orleans' defense allows efficient Pittsburgh scoring and the game reaches 45+, with no push protection at 44.5.

Questions

Who won Steelers vs. Saints?

The Steelers won 16-10 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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