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Colts vs. VikingsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalU.S. Bank Stadium
Colts2–4
10–16Final
Vikings5–0
Score by period
Team1234T
IND730010
MIN0601016

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 41.5 total 50¢

Why Drift likes it: Power rating: 54.5% under; projected total 40.0 from defensive EPA, low scoring efficiency, and slow pace.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 19-31 on this game · −27% return

  1. Minnesota Vikings −6.55 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    5 modelsNFL Trench Mismatch, NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model +3
    Why 5 models like it
    NFL Trench Mismatch
    • Full trench score: Minnesota +0.41 versus Indianapolis -0.13; the -0.54 edge favors Minnesota and clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary pass-trench score: Minnesota +0.42 versus Indianapolis -0.19; the -0.61 differential favors Minnesota and clears the 0.25 trigger.
    • Minnesota loses guard Donovan Jackson, while Nick Samac is on IR; Indianapolis also has guard Dalton Tucker out, with limited player-quality data for several replacements.
    NFL Opponent-Adjusted ATS Model
    • Model fair spread approximately Minnesota -8.5, a 2-point edge over the -6.5 consensus.
    • Minnesota's 2026 defense is -0.213 EPA/play allowed versus Indianapolis at +0.008; the matchup gap is substantial.
    • The sharp move has already removed part of the value; the remaining edge is modest at the posted -115 price.
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Vikings defense is -0.2128 EPA/play to date versus Colts defense at +0.0081.
    • Minnesota has a 75.0 PFF team grade versus Indianapolis at 70.3; QB passing grade is 67.7 versus 49.9.
    • Indianapolis has the better current offensive EPA, +0.0033/play versus Minnesota at -0.0665.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels: Vikings 3 versus Colts 3; tie, so the third measure adds no corroboration.
    • Directional check: backing Minnesota Vikings -6.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The independent Pinnacle quote is -7.5, an off-line market and not a clean exact-line comparison.
  2. Indianapolis Colts to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +136 on DraftKings

    4 modelsShawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter, Resting Money +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Shawn’s NFL Live EV Hunter
    • Colts lead 7-0; current live EPA is +0.280/play for Indianapolis versus -0.810 for Minnesota.
    • Vikings' live drive has produced 16 yards on 5 plays in 1:44, still scoreless at the Colts 35.
    • Only 11 Minnesota and 10 Indianapolis plays; the early efficiency split is highly volatile.
    Resting Money
    • Book levels: Colts 3 versus Vikings 3; tie, so this third measure does not corroborate or oppose the two-measure signal.
    • Directional check: backing Indianapolis Colts, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is a ProphetX self-reference only; resting orders can be stale, cancelled, or concentrated with one participant.
    Brewing NFL Ml
    • Recent five-game Colts offense is +0.0408 EPA/play with 2.245 points/drive versus Minnesota's -0.0665 and 1.749.
    • Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray are both confirmed active starters; indoor venue removes wind uncertainty.
    • The Vikings have 14 rest days to Indianapolis's 7 and receive home field; those situational effects are included but could be understated.
    Pick with Pink (NFL) Money lines
    • bin model: +0.151 home net-EPA edge maps to 64.4% home wins across 90 comparable games; Colts baseline 35.6%.
    • Colts season offense: +0.0033 EPA/play, 47.8% success, 2.204 points/drive versus Minnesota's -0.0665, 42.6%, 1.749.
    • Kyler Murray's PFF passing grade is 72.9 versus Daniel Jones's 49.9; the QB gap strongly favors Minnesota.
  3. Indianapolis Colts +6.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    2 modelsNFL Luck Regression, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    Why 2 models like it
    NFL Luck Regression
    • Luck Score: Colts -0.744 vs Vikings +0.422; Luck Difference -1.166 clears the 0.50 trigger.
    • Primary Luck: Colts -0.594 vs Vikings +0.420; difference -1.014 clears the 0.20 trigger.
    • Only 6 Colts games and 5 Vikings games are in the 2026 sample; variance remains substantial.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • No starter cards are posted; 12 Colts and 13 Vikings are listed out, with Jordan Mason questionable.
    • Minnesota Vikings spread −6.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −118 on DraftKings

      2 modelsCLV Sharp ATS, NFL Spread Detective
      Why 2 models like it
      CLV Sharp ATS
      • Model projects Minnesota -8.8, a 1.8-point edge beyond the -7 consensus.
      • Last-five net EPA/play: Minnesota +0.146 versus Indianapolis +0.067.
      • Minnesota's last-five offense EPA/play is -0.0665 and success rate is 42.6%, so separation is not guaranteed.
      NFL Spread Detective
      • EPA Strategy Score: Minnesota 0.359 vs Indianapolis 0.016; edge +0.343.
      • Primary EPA edge is +0.236, clearing the +0.20 trigger.
      • The primary edge clears by only 0.036, leaving a narrow margin for model error.
    • Minnesota Vikings to winFavorite2 models agree
      +31%Won

      Taken at −325 on DraftKings

      2 modelsPigskin Pete, high-confidence main markets
      Why 2 models like it
      Pigskin Pete
      • Vikings defensive EPA allowed is -0.136 over the last six versus Colts +0.0081.
      • Kyler Murray's PFF passing grade is 72.9 with a 0.8% turnover-worthy-play rate; Daniel Jones is 49.9 with 6.0%.
      • Colts lead the matchup in recent offensive EPA/play (0.0033 to -0.0981) and success rate (47.8% to 42.1%).
      high-confidence main markets
      • Minnesota is 5-0 with a +9.0-point average margin; Indianapolis is 2-4 with a -3.3 margin.
      • Vikings defense: -0.213 EPA allowed/play through five games versus Colts at +0.008 allowed/play.
      • Minnesota's offense is weak by EPA at -0.0665/play, while Indianapolis is slightly positive at +0.0033.
    • Game total under 42.52 models agree
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsHouse Rules, Pace Ledger
      Why 2 models like it
      House Rules
      • under 42.5 wins if the final total is exactly 42; under 42 pushes at 42.
      • Exact 42 occurred 43 of 2,637 NFL regular-season games from 2016, 2025: 1.630% push/win-rule mass.
      • Broad 2016, 2025 historical frequency is not a game-specific scoring model; this desk is not projecting the total.
      Pace Ledger
      • Projection cross-check is mixed: combined pace is 62.919 plays, but Minnesota's recent offense is -0.0981 EPA/play and 1.557 points/drive over six games.
      • Confirmed starters and game-day availability were posted at 8:34, 8:38 AM PDT; indoor venue, Minnesota has 14 rest days and Indianapolis 7.
      • The internal discrepancy is modest at 1.5 points; shared venue ladders may be noisy rather than independently informative.
    Show all 39 picks
    1. Laquon Treadwell over 19.5 receiving yardsHigh conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −114 on DraftKings

      NFL Regression RadarDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 31% recent efficiency gap: 5.1 yards/target over the last 3 versus 7.4 season yards/target.
      • 86.0% offensive snap rate across the last 3 games; route snaps rose 35 → 36 → 39.
      • Actual yardage cleared 19.5 in all three recent games despite the efficiency shortfall.
      • Daniel Jones has a 49.9 PFF passing grade, creating quarterback-efficiency risk.
    2. Indianapolis Colts exact margin of victory 1-6Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

      Exact ChangeUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle's live sharp reference is Vikings -7.5 (+111), about 46.2% devigged; the reweighted baseline is centered on a 7.5-point Minnesota margin.
      • Evaluated alternatives: Vikings 1-6 about 22.8% at 23¢, Vikings 7-14 about 21.1% at 26¢, and Vikings 15+ about 25.4% at 27¢; none cleared the price.
      • No confirmed depth-chart starters are posted; Colts have multiple outs and Jordan Mason is questionable for Minnesota.
    3. Minnesota Vikings spread −7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

      Sunday LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle -7.5 +111 / Colts +7.5 -123; devigged Vikings -7.5 probability is 46.2%.
      • Minnesota allows -0.213 EPA/play versus Indianapolis at +0.008; both current-season samples clear four games.
      • Most likely loss: Minnesota wins by seven or fewer; the NFL's key-number mass compresses this rung.
    4. Minnesota Vikings spread −14.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

      Key NumberUp 8% last 7 days
    5. Under 41.5 total
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Power rating: 54.5% under; projected total 40.0 from defensive EPA, low scoring efficiency, and slow pace.
      • Vikings offense is -0.0665 EPA/play with 1.749 points/drive; combined current team PPD is only 3.953.
      • Both QBs are expected, not confirmed; Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray remain late-status risks.
    6. 3-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +24300

      Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    7. Aaron Jones anytime touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +125 on DraftKings

      TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model anytime-touchdown probability 49.0% versus 44.4% break-even at +125.
      • Jones averages 19.4 carries per game and is Minnesota's confirmed starting RB.
      • Jordan Mason's questionable status raises Jones's realistic carry and goal-line share.
      • Mason could be active and materially reduce Jones's goal-line workload.
    8. Justin Jefferson first touchdownLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +700 on DraftKings

      TD Value Model · DraftKingsDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model first-touchdown probability 15.5% versus 12.5% break-even at +700.
      • Jefferson owns 24 targets and 3 receiving TDs in four games.
      • 88.6 PFF route grade and 2.74 yards per route run lead this matchup's priced receivers.
      • First-touchdown outcomes are high variance and depend on which team wins the opening scoring race.
    9. Indianapolis Colts second-half total over 20.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • RECOMMENDED; SHARP REFERENCE (full-game anchor) plus VENUE SELF-REFERENCE (half quote); INTERNAL COHERENCE.
      • Pinnacle full-game total is 42.5; 1H and 2H venue rungs are both 20.5, leaving only 1.5 points for the normal late scoring bump.
      • Expected pace is 30.615/32.304 seconds per play; square-root drive scaling, not linear halving, preserves second-half scoring variance.
      • Only 22.46 contracts traded; no sharp book posts a half-total, so the venue quote may be thin.
    10. Game first-half total under 20.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      Locker RoomDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • RECOMMENDED; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE; PROJECTION plus INTERNAL COHERENCE.
      • Colts offense EPA/play is 0.0033 against Minnesota defense EPA/play allowed -0.2128; Vikings offense is -0.0665 EPA/play.
      • My fitted first-half mean is approximately 19.5 points; the 20.5 half line is 1.0 point high, while 20.5 plus 20.5 is only 41 versus the 41.5 full-game anchor and omits the usual small second-half scoring bump.
      • Current-season PPD samples cover only 5 Vikings and 6 Colts games, so efficiency estimates are unstable.
    11. Minnesota Vikings spread −7
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Six-game Colts and five-game Vikings season samples: Minnesota's defense is -0.2128 EPA/play allowed versus Indianapolis at +0.0081.
      • Minnesota's offense is -0.0665 EPA/play against Indianapolis at +0.0081 allowed; both matchup components point toward the home side.
      • Rest is 14 days for Minnesota versus 7 for Indianapolis; the game is non-neutral and indoors. PFF defense also favors Minnesota 66.7 to 54.0.
      • Most likely loss: Minnesota's -0.0665 offensive EPA profile fails to convert against Indianapolis, leaving a one-score game.
    12. Total Points under 42.5
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Sunday Board PairsUp 33% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season coverage clears the gate: Colts have 6 games and Vikings 5; the efficiency read is Colts +0.0033 offense EPA/play versus Minnesota -0.2128 defense EPA allowed, and Minnesota -0.0665 offense versus Indianapolis +0.0081 defense EPA allowed.
      • Pace is slow-to-moderate at 30.615 seconds/play for Indianapolis and 32.304 for Minnesota; positive PROE is limited on the Vikings side at 0.0155 despite the Colts' 0.1168.
      • The Vikings' defense is the stronger unit: PFF 2026 defense 66.7 versus Indianapolis 54.0, with Minnesota's run defense 71.1 versus 52.7.
      • Most likely loss: Indianapolis' +0.0081 defensive EPA profile gives Minnesota efficient short fields or explosive scores, pushing the game above 42.5.
    13. Minnesota Vikings under 23.5 team points
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

      One ColumnUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: Minnesota's home offense is -0.0665 EPA/play with 1.574 home points/drive; Indianapolis' away defense allows 23.25 points/game but is only +0.0081 EPA allowed.
      • A direct home-offense/away-defense blend is about 21.1 points, below the 23.5 threshold; the matchup model is below the board.
      • 41.5 game total and Minnesota -6.5 imply a spread-split Vikings team total near 24.0; the 23.5 board rung looks mechanically derived, not independently modeled.
      • Indianapolis has scored 23.75 points per away game; one or two short fields can erase the matchup discount.
    14. Indianapolis Colts +7
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number PairsDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • DraftKings shows Minnesota -7 and Pinnacle -7.5, while ProphetX's main rung is -6.5; +7 is the number upgrade.
      • 2026 form: Minnesota allows -0.213 defensive EPA/play versus Indianapolis +0.008; Colts offense is +0.003 versus Minnesota -0.066.
      • The projection supports Minnesota as a favorite, but not necessarily an eight-point winner; the indoor venue removes weather noise.
      • Most likely loss: Minnesota's defense and home field produce a win by eight or more.
    15. Indianapolis Colts winning margin 1 to 6Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 13¢ on Polymarket US

      NFL EPA Margin SharpDown 59% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • adjusted projection is Minnesota by roughly 4.5, versus a market spread of Minnesota -7 to -7.5.
      • Last-five EPA inputs: Indianapolis offense +0.0408/defense -0.0266; Minnesota offense -0.0665/defense -0.2128.
      • Key-number adjustment concentrates outcomes around 3 and 6; the model assigns about 21% to an Indianapolis 1, 6 win.
      • Season aggregates favor Minnesota's efficiency profile; the Vikings are 5-0 while Indianapolis is 2-4 overall.
    16. Keenan Allen over 4.5 receptions
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −160 on FanDuel

      NFL Receiving Props Joint Monte CarloDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Five-game direct sample has 4 overs in 5, with 8.0 targets and 5.2 receptions per game.
      • p_raw 75%, shrink factor 0.50, p_final 66.6%, final edge +8.5 percentage points.
      • Allen is only expected rather than officially confirmed active at this timestamp; late status changes remain possible.
    17. Daniel Jones over 32.5 passing attempts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      NFL HunterV2Down 3% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model probability 57%; DraftKings market de-vigs to roughly 49.8%, a +7.2-point edge.
      • Jones exceeded 32.5 attempts in 4 of 6 starts; his six-game mean is 36.2 attempts.
      • Minnesota's recent defense is excellent at -0.2128 EPA allowed per play and a 9.6% pass-rush win rate.
    18. Jonathan Taylor over 69.5 rushing yards
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L6: 82.0 rushing yards per game on 122 carries; 4 of 6 cleared 69.5.
      • L10 including four comparable 2025 games: 72.1 yards per game; 6 of 10 cleared.
      • Confirmed workhorse role: 19, 24 carries in every 2026 game; 81.2% 2026 snap share.
      • Minnesota's defense is strong: -0.2128 EPA/play allowed through five games; matchup adjustment lowers projection to 75.5.
    19. Jonathan Taylor 1+ touchdowns
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Minnesota has allowed only 3 touchdowns on 12 opponent red-zone trips (25.0%), the clearest matchup-specific conversion drag.
      • Taylor is the expected RB1 and workhorse at an 81.2% snap share; with Minnesota favored by 6.5, the script assumption is Indianapolis throws more if trailing, reducing late goal-line carries.
      • Taylor has no player ahead of him in the RB depth-chart read, so his workhorse role can overcome the matchup.
    20. Game total NO 42.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

      BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Minnesota's defense is allowing -0.2128 EPA/play to date; Indianapolis offense is only +0.0033 EPA/play.
      • Minnesota has scored 109 points across five games (21.8 per game); its last five games averaged 34.6 combined points.
      • 42.5 offers one point of protection versus the broadly posted 41.5 total; indoor venue removes weather-over variance.
      • Indianapolis defense is weaker by the feature baseline (+0.0081 EPA/play allowed), and its offense averages 2.2043 points per drive.
    21. Total points under 40.5
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book-level corroboration is neutral at 3 under / 3 over; the two supporting measures are thin-at-quote and deeper-total.
      • The third measure does not corroborate: book_levels are tied 3-3, so this is not a three-signal read.
    22. Daniel Jones over 32.5 pass attempts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −137 on prizepicks

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 37.2 attempts per game over his last five, 14.5% above the 32.5 line.
      • Over this line in 4 of Jones's last 5 starts.
      • Minnesota plays at 32.3 seconds per play; its strong defense can create additional dropbacks through pressure and trailing script.
      • Minnesota ranks first in current defensive EPA at -0.213 per play, which can suppress drives and possessions.
    23. Game total under 17.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 3¢ on Polymarket US

      Chain MoversUp 177% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 70.5 blended Colts plays and 64.4 Vikings plays with blended points-per-drive project a 41.5-point mean and roughly 15-point SD.
      • Pinnacle 42.5 total, Over +102 / Under -115, devigged to approximately 48.1% / 51.9%, anchors the center.
      • Tail guard: 17.5 is 25 points from the center, so central pace and efficiency inputs are least reliable here.
    24. Indianapolis Colts first-half winner
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Minnesota has the rest edge, 14 days to Indianapolis' 7, but the live first-half state is Colts 7-0 at 6:13 of Q1.
      • The Colts' aggressive scripted profile and current touchdown lead offset Minnesota's defensive EPA advantage (-0.2128 versus Indianapolis +0.0081) in the remaining first-half window.
      • no directly comparable sharp first-half winner quote; own live-adjusted probability is 60% against a 59¢ Kalshi grading price.
      • Minnesota's 14-to-7 rest advantage and -0.2209 defensive EPA gap are the strongest counter-signals.
    25. Under 21.5 first-half total
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

      Split DecisionUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Minnesota has 14 rest days to Indianapolis' 7; the seven-day gap is the strongest first-half lever.
      • Minnesota's defense is -0.2128 EPA/play allowed versus Indianapolis' +0.0081, a 0.2209 gap; Minnesota also plays slower (32.304 vs 30.615 seconds/play).
      • Pinnacle full-game total 41.5, scaled through the possession model rather than flat halving, supports a derived first-half reference near 20.4.
      • No directly comparable first-half sportsbook total is posted; 20.4 is a derived reference, not a quoted half line.
    26. Game total under 40.5
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Vikings defense is -0.2128 EPA/play to date, while Indianapolis offense is only +0.0033; the matchup suppresses scoring.
      • Minnesota offense is -0.0665 EPA/play and 1.749 points/drive; Indianapolis is 2.2043 points/drive but faces the stronger defense.
      • Combined pace inputs are 32.304 and 30.615 seconds/play; SHARP REFERENCE has the main total at 41.5-42.5, leaving room below 40.5.
      • Minnesota is 5-0 over its last five with a +9.0 scoring margin, and its 14 days of rest versus Indianapolis' 7 can improve execution.
    27. Aaron Jones over 37.5 rushing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −111 on DraftKings

      NFL Usage AdventureDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 88.3 rushing yards per game over his last three; outputs were 58, 94, and 113.
      • 80.0% average snap share over the last three games, rising from 73.1% to 87.3%.
      • 20.7 carries per game in that span; Jordan Mason is questionable and Demond Claiborne is out.
      • Indianapolis has allowed mixed recent defensive EPA results, so the matchup is not a clear bottom-12 run-defense edge.
    28. Aaron Jones 1+ touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

      Run First & Anytime TD QuantDown 26% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 60% red-zone rushing share: 6 of Minnesota's 10 red-zone rushes across its last four games.
      • Confirmed starting RB at 8:34am PDT; Jordan Mason is the questionable competing back.
      • Minnesota projects for 24.25 points from a 41.5 total and -7 spread.
      • 60% is only the brief's low-conviction 50-60% band, not the >65% high-conviction threshold.
    29. Minnesota Vikings first team touchdown
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

      PaydirtUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US quotes Vikings first touchdown YES at 59c with both sides live and tradable.
      • Vikings are a 74.5% moneyline favorite; the likely positive script should concentrate early goal-line opportunities on Minnesota.
      • Aaron Jones is confirmed RB1 and a workhorse at 73.2% snap share; goal-line role is derived from this proxy plus team red-zone data, not a single ground-truth field.
      • First touchdown is highly timing-sensitive; opening-kick winner and scripted first-drive calls are unknown.
    30. Aaron Jones over 9.5 rushing attempts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −129 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5: 5/5 over 9.5; L10: 9/10; 2026 season: 5/5.
      • Jones is the confirmed starting RB1 and season workhorse: 73.2% snap share, 55.6% route participation.
      • Indianapolis defensive-line run-defense grade is only 52.8; Minnesota’s recent pass rate is a moderate 50.6%.
      • H2H is extremely thin: only one meaningful Colts meeting, a 21-attempt over.
    31. Jonathan Taylor over 17.5 rushing attempts
      +96%Won

      Taken at −104 on DraftKings

      Pick With Pink (NFL) player propsDown 22% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L5: 4/5 over 17.5; L10: 7/10; 2026 season: 5/6.
      • Workhorse RB1: 81.2% season snap share; recent run-snap counts range 15, 24.
      • H2H is thin and mildly contrary: 1/2 meaningful meetings cleared 17.5; one other meeting has missing stats.
    32. Indianapolis Colts spread +3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Live state remains Colts 7-0 with 0:07 left in Q1; the extra 3.5 points materially protects the early lead against a one-score Minnesota result.
      • Indianapolis opened with a 61-yard touchdown drive; Minnesota's first possession ended on downs and its second reached the red zone without scoring.
      • My cover estimate is 57%, above the 53.92c graded contract price; this is a projection edge, not a long-price argument.
      • Most likely loss: Minnesota finishes its current red-zone possession, controls the game afterward, and wins by four or more.
    33. Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings under 41.5 total points
      +89%Won

      Taken at −112 on DraftKings

      Number EarnedDown 26% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Vikings defense allows -0.2128 EPA/play over the recent five-game window.
      • Minnesota offense is -0.0665 EPA/play with a 0.4256 success rate in that span.
      • Both teams play slowly: 32.3 and 30.6 seconds per offensive play.
      • Indianapolis has produced 2.204 points per drive to date, creating over risk if efficiency travels.

    Questions

    Who won Colts vs. Vikings?

    The Vikings won 16–10 on Sunday, Oct 25, 2026.

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