Bears vs. Seahawks: Chicago has been better, so why is Seattle favored?
Put this season's Bears and Seahawks on a neutral field and Chicago is favored. Seattle's whole edge comes from home field and last season's title team, so we make it 53-47 Seahawks. Prediction markets said about 61% Monday morning.
Chicago is good on both sides of the ball, and Seattle is all defense
Seattle is favored Monday night because of who it was and where it plays. Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times picked the Seahawks 23-16, noting they are "31-13 all-time" on Monday night, "best in NFL history," and "still on that level" after beating the Chiefs.
Our numbers agree Seattle should be favored, barely, for those reasons alone. This season, Chicago has been the better team: 2nd in the NFL behind the 49ers, while Seattle pairs the best defense in football with the 26th-ranked offense.
Seattle's edge is home field and last season
Judged only on how they've played this season, the Bears would be favored by almost 2 points. Seattle's Super Bowl season wins back about 1, and the Lumen Field crowd adds almost 2 more. That leaves Seattle by about a point, a 53% chance.
The markets like the champs more than we do. Kalshi and Polymarket US had the Seahawks at about 61% on Monday morning, roughly a field goal, and this season's games don't back that up.
Our numbers see a closer game than the markets do
- Our projection doesn't see injuries. Seattle is missing left tackle Charles Cross and receiver Rashid Shaheed; Chicago lost tight end Cole Kmet and safety Coby Bryant to injured reserve (NFL injury report).
- It also can't see trades. Chicago traded for All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons on Thursday; he's expected to debut Monday, per the Bears.
- Any one game can swing wildly: the final margin usually lands about 13 points from the projection. Follow it on the game page and in our NFL predictions.
The Bears should throw on Seattle, not run
The Bears run for more yards than anyone (154.3 a game, per the AP), mostly because they run so often. Run for run, they're 11th. And Seattle stuffs the run: 3rd in the league, with no 100-yard rusher allowed in 36 straight games.
- So it comes down to Williams and the Bears' passing game (4th) against Seattle's pass defense (1st).
- Darnold's passing game (18th) faces a Bears defense that is 4th against the pass and sacks the quarterback on 9% of dropbacks.
- Seattle can't lean on the run either. Kenneth Walker III is in Kansas City now, and the Seahawks have the NFL's worst run game.
The Bears are a different offense with Caleb Williams
Williams strained his right hamstring late in Week 2 and missed three games. Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent kept Chicago winning, but the offense went from great to ordinary until he came back.
Chicago's offense took off when Williams came back
- He hits big plays. About one snap in seven went for a big gain with Williams (14.8%), a rate only Buffalo and Cincinnati beat. With the backups it was one in ten.
- And he protects the ball: 1 interception all season.
40points a game, Williams' 3 full gamesNobody has had a normal day against Seattle
Mike Macdonald's defense has made all seven opponents worse than usual. The Chiefs scored 3 points. Williams called it "the best defense in football right now" (ClutchPoints), and Ben Johnson told the Bears' site: "It's hard to run the ball, hard to throw the ball."
Every Seattle opponent moved the ball worse than usual
- Big plays are what Williams brings, and Seattle gives up fewer of them than anyone (6.9% of snaps).
- The Seahawks allow 17.9 points a game, 3rd-fewest. Our records check explains why 4-3 undersells them.
Sam Darnold is Seattle's problem
With Drew Lock in Weeks 1 and 2, Seattle's offense was a bit above average. In Darnold's five full games since Week 3, it has played like the league's second-worst. Now he loses his left tackle against a Bears defense that gets to the quarterback.
8interceptions, Sam Darnold
867receiving yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba- Darnold has 11 turnover-worthy throws, per PFF, to Williams' 3.
- Out: left tackle Charles Cross (ankle), receiver Rashid Shaheed (knee), running back Velus Jones Jr. (hamstring). Linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (ankle) is doubtful.
Questions people ask
What time is Bears vs Seahawks on Monday Night Football?
Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, at 8:15 p.m. ET (5:15 p.m. PT) at Lumen Field in Seattle, on ESPN.
Is Caleb Williams playing against the Seahawks?
Yes. He missed three games with a right hamstring strain, has started since Week 6 and is not on the injury report.
Who is favored in Bears vs Seahawks?
Seattle. Prediction markets had the Seahawks at about 61% on Monday morning, Nov. 2, roughly a 3-point favorite. Snapp's projection makes it 53-47 Seattle, and all of that edge comes from home field and last season; this season's play alone favors Chicago.
Do the Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL?
Yes, by our numbers. Seattle ranks 1st in the NFL play for play, even after accounting for who it has faced, and gives up the fewest big plays.
Who is injured for the Seahawks against the Bears?
Left tackle Charles Cross (ankle), receiver Rashid Shaheed (knee) and running back Velus Jones Jr. (hamstring) are out. Linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (ankle) is doubtful.
How we did this
Snapp's NFL play-by-play warehouse with ESPN expected points (EPA) and win probability, PFF charting, the NFL injury report and captured prediction-market prices. Team ratings come from the canonical 2026 table shared by every Snapp NFL article: regular-season games that kicked off before Monday, Nov. 2, 2026 (through Week 8 Sunday, 120 games; Chicago and Seattle last played in Week 7). They count scrimmage plays with pre-snap win probability between 10% and 90% (garbage time removed), weight every play, use the warehouse's expected points as stored, and adjust iteratively for each opponent; defense is shown as EPA prevented, so higher is better. Pass and run ranks, big-play rates, sack rate, the quarterback and per-game splits and the opponent comparison use the same plays but are not opponent-adjusted. Big plays are the warehouse's explosive-play flag. Quarterback groups: Williams games are Weeks 1, 6 and 7 (he left Week 2 in the fourth quarter); Seattle's Lock games are Weeks 1 and 2 (Darnold started Week 1 but was hurt on the first series); Darnold's full games are Weeks 3 to 7. The projection regresses each team's rest-of-season scoring margin on its first-seven-game net EPA per play (not opponent-adjusted) and the previous season's, 288 team seasons from 2017 to 2025, then adds a 1.8-point home edge (the 2016-2025 average): Seattle by 1.1 points, 53%, with a typical single-game miss of about 13 points. It ignores injuries and quarterback changes. The fit used the warehouse's older EPA values, in which our query flipped the sign on pick-sixes and fumble-sixes; this season's inputs use the values as stored. Those plays are rare, so the difference is well under a point. Market prices are Kalshi and Polymarket US at 6:21 a.m. PT on Nov. 2, 2026 (Seattle 61%, spread Seattle -3 to -3.5). Rushing yards per game and the 100-yard-rusher streak are from the AP (Oct. 29). Projection split: this season's term favors Chicago by 1.79 points, last season's adds 1.09 for Seattle and home field adds 1.79, net Seattle +1.09. Injury report rechecked Nov. 2 (nfl_injury_latest: final Week 8 report, observed Nov. 1, 7:50 a.m. PST; no changes).