Is Dan Orlovsky right about Caleb Williams?
Mostly, and he undersold him. Against the defenses he faced, Williams has been the NFL's best passer over his last three games, with Allen 3rd. Closest to him is Jared Goff, whom neither Orlovsky nor Mike Florio named.
Over the last three games, no quarterback has been better than Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams
Jared Goff
Josh Allen
Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawrence
Kirk Cousins
Tyler Shough
Drake Maye
Malik Willis
C.J. Stroud
Geno Smith
Patrick MahomesRight now. Right now. Think the only QB that is scarier for defenders to play against other than Caleb Williams is Josh Allen. Williams is that good right now.
Late Monday night, after the Bears beat the defending champion Seahawks 34-17 in Seattle, ESPN's Dan Orlovsky posted on X that only Josh Allen is scarier for defenses than Caleb Williams right now.
He said "right now" three times, so we graded every quarterback's last three games against the defenses he faced. Williams isn't 2nd behind Allen. He's 1st.
Nobody has been better than Williams since he came back
Williams strained his hamstring in Week 2 and missed three games. Since he came back, the Bears are 3-0 and nobody has thrown it better. He's 76 of 103 in those games, with four touchdowns and no interceptions.
Seattle, 3rd against the pass in our numbers, was the hardest test, and he went 24 of 34 for 247 yards with no turnovers, per the AP. His opening touchdown drive went 17 plays, the most Seattle had allowed on a touchdown drive in 10 years, NFL.com noted.
Three games is a small sample (116 dropbacks), but the season agrees: Williams is 1st among quarterbacks with 150 or more dropbacks. On raw numbers, Burrow and Goff have been a touch better lately, but Williams had to get through Seattle. He beats Allen either way.
Allen has been great in spurts. Williams has been good every week.
Allen still has the higher ceiling: his 37-34 shootout at the Rams in Week 5 is the best game either man has played. The other two of his last three were ordinary, against the Raiders (29th against the pass) and the Ravens.
Williams has been good every week; Allen has been streaky
Williams beat what the defense usually allows in all five of his games, even the 9-3 loss to Minnesota. Allen fell short in three of his seven, and over the season he is 6th: elite, but not second-best.
The big plays are real, though: 23% of Allen's recent dropbacks went for chunk gains, the most of the top four.
Florio agrees, and both skip Jared Goff
Orlovsky has company. Mike Florio wrote on Tuesday that Williams has arrived as a top-tier quarterback: "The new top four, in our view, are (in no particular order), Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Caleb Williams."
For right now, our numbers back three of Florio's four: Williams 1st, Allen 3rd, Burrow 4th, with Mahomes 12th. Neither named Jared Goff, who is 2nd, and his last two games came against Green Bay and Minnesota, two of the four best pass defenses. Goff has thrown only one interception all season.
Williams himself didn't call it perfect. He "admitted that he didn't have a flawless game Monday," Yahoo Sports' Kari Anderson wrote, and told ESPN's Scott Van Pelt, per the Chicago Sun-Times: "Each win just builds on that."
He wins before third down, and Tampa Bay is the toughest test yet
What makes Williams scary is that he rarely lets defenses get to third down. On first-and-long he has kept the Bears on schedule 61% of the time (NFL: 49%). On third down he has been about average.
Williams beats defenses before third down
The Buccaneers come to Soldier Field on Sunday night with the stingiest pass defense in the league. ESPN's Bill Barnwell wrote Monday that the Bucs defense "now leads the NFL in EPA per play." A good night against No. 1 would settle it.
He handled Seattle (3rd against the pass), but Minnesota (2nd) held the Bears to 3 points in Week 2, the game he got hurt in. Play-action is a weapon: he hit 10 of his 15 play-action throws Monday, per Next Gen Stats via NFL.com. Watch first down, because third-and-long is where Williams has looked ordinary.
Our Bears vs. Seahawks preview said passing would decide Monday, and it did. Sunday's numbers are on NFL predictions.
Questions people ask
What did Dan Orlovsky say about Caleb Williams?
After Chicago's 34-17 win at Seattle on Nov. 2, 2026, Orlovsky posted on X: "Think the only QB that is scarier for defenders to play against other than Caleb Williams is Josh Allen. Williams is that good right now."
Is Caleb Williams better than Josh Allen right now?
Yes, once you account for the defenses they faced. Over their last three games Williams ranks 1st and Allen 3rd; over the season Williams is 1st and Allen 6th.
Who is the best quarterback in the NFL in 2026 so far?
Among quarterbacks with 150 or more dropbacks, adjusted for opponents, Caleb Williams ranks 1st, ahead of Brock Purdy, Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
When do the Bears play the Buccaneers?
Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026, at Soldier Field, at 8:20 p.m. ET.
How we did this
Snapp's NFL play-by-play warehouse (ESPN expected points), games through Monday, Nov. 2, 2026. A dropback is every pass attempt, sack and quarterback scramble. Each dropback's value is expected points added, adjusted for the defense: we subtract what that defense allowed per dropback all season and add back the league average. Last three games means each quarterback's three most recent games with at least 15 dropbacks; season ranks need 150 dropbacks. Success rate is the share of dropbacks that added expected points. Monday's box score is from the AP.