Is Dan Orlovsky right about Bo Nix?
Mostly right. When Denver is down one score late, Nix throws like a top-two quarterback (2nd in the NFL since 2025), and his 25-3 is real as touchdowns to interceptions when trailing. The catch is the one Orlovsky admits: for three quarters, Denver passes like the 22nd-best team.
Denver passes like a top-2 team late in close games, and like the 22nd-best team before that
I understand that the play through the first three quarters of every game looks like what the heck is going on, and rightfully so. He's 25-3 when trailing since the start of 2025. That's outrageous. He's the most clutch guy in ball right now.
“Bo Nix is the most clutch quarterback in the NFL,” Dan Orlovsky said on ESPN's First Take on Monday, Nov. 2, after Denver rallied from 24-13 down in the fourth quarter to beat Kansas City 28-24. His proof: Nix is 25-3 when trailing since the start of 2025.
He's mostly right. When the Broncos trail by one score late, Nix throws like one of the best quarterbacks in football, and his 25-3 holds up if it means touchdowns to interceptions. The catch is the one he named himself: for three quarters Denver's passing is below average, and only the Raiders have a bigger gap between early and late.
The 25-3 checks out as touchdowns to interceptions
Not everyone bought it: Micah Parsons replied on X, “Most clutch in the NFL?!!” Orlovsky answered that he had “probably been more critical” of Nix “this year than anyone.”
It sounds like a win-loss record, but it can't be one: Denver has won 21 games since the start of 2025. Nix started 26 of those 27 games (Jarrett Stidham started the AFC title game loss to New England). Here is Denver's record in Nix's starts:
- Trailed at any point: 18-5.
- Trailed in the fourth quarter: 10-5.
- One-score games: 17-2, including 15 straight one-score wins in the regular season.
If 25-3 meant games, Denver would be 18-5 when trailing
Broncos with Nix18-5 when trailingEach reading of Orlovsky's 25-3, since the start of 2025.
| Reading of 25-3 | Since 2025 |
|---|---|
| Nix starts, record when trailing at any point | 18-5 |
| Nix starts, record when trailing in the 4th quarter | 10-5 |
| Nix starts, record in one-score games | 17-2 |
| Nix starts, overall record | 21-5 |
| Nix TD passes to interceptions when trailing (regular season) | 25-3 |
Touchdowns to interceptions fits exactly: when Denver trails, Nix has thrown 25 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in the regular season since 2025 (27 and 3 with the playoff win over Buffalo). When Denver is tied or ahead, he has 9 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. We can't confirm Orlovsky meant that stat, but it's the only one we found that gives 25-3.
Late in close games, Nix really is elite
This is where Orlovsky is right. When Denver is down 1 to 8 points in the fourth quarter or overtime, its passing ranks 2nd in the NFL since 2025, just behind the Rams. It was 1st last season and is 8th this season.
In those spots Nix has 4 touchdown passes and no interceptions. He averages 8.6 yards per dropback there, and 6.1 or less through three quarters in both seasons.
Late-game passing usually swings a lot from year to year (Atlanta went from 2nd to 32nd), and 54 late dropbacks is less than two games' worth of throws. But Denver is one of just five teams in the top 8 both years, with the Rams, Raiders, Bills and Cowboys. That's a point for Orlovsky.
Nix has been far better late than early in both seasons
Sunday's win over the Chiefs was the whole pattern
In Sunday's game, Denver went three-and-out on all three third-quarter drives, gaining 14 yards combined, as SI's Lance Sanderson noted. Bill Barnwell wrote that before the comeback “Denver hadn't shown much aptitude for scoring,” with “Bo Nix & Co. getting booed off the field on a fair number of their drives.”
Then Nix went 80 yards in 9 plays, capped by a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass to Nate Adkins and a 2-point throw to Jaylen Waddle. After Harrison Butker missed from 54 yards, a short pass to running back Jonah Coleman went 51 yards, and Coleman scored on the next snap.
Against Kansas City, three straight three-and-outs came before two touchdown drives
Kansas City helped. Barnwell called the first drive “aided by a slip in coverage and a foolish penalty after the play by safety Alohi Gilman,” and Denver's defense still had to stop the Chiefs at the 1. Still, it was Nix's best game of the year by passer rating (103.9), the Gazette reported.
The slow starts are real, so watch the first half at Carolina
Orlovsky didn't hide this part: he asked on air whether the first three quarters would “bite them at some point,” answered “I would imagine so,” and added that “it really hasn't over the past two years.” Through three quarters, Denver's passing ranks 22nd this season and was 16th last season. Only the Raiders throw that much better late than early.
Denver was outscored 43-13 in the first halves of its first four games this season, though it has led at halftime in three of four games since. Before the 49ers game, Nix told the Denver Gazette that “starting fast is key” and put it down to “early down success right now. Execution.”
Next is Carolina on Sunday. The Broncos are 6-2 but 16th in our snap-for-snap ratings, and our Week 8 overreactions piece flagged how much of that rests on close games.
Watch the first half: if Nix needs another fourth-quarter rescue, the early-game problem hasn't moved. He has been pressured on a career-high 33% of dropbacks this season, per Next Gen Stats. Our model's numbers for the game are on NFL predictions, and Nix's full game log is on ESPN.
Questions people ask
Is Bo Nix the most clutch quarterback in the NFL?
He's among the best. Since 2025, Denver's passing ranks 2nd in the NFL when down one score in the fourth quarter, with no Nix interceptions. The sample is small: 54 dropbacks.
What is Bo Nix's record when trailing?
In Nix's starts since 2025, playoffs included, Denver is 18-5 in games it trailed and 10-5 when trailing in the fourth quarter. Dan Orlovsky's 25-3 matches Nix's regular-season touchdown passes and interceptions when trailing: 25 and 3.
How many fourth-quarter comebacks does Bo Nix have?
The Denver Gazette reports 12 regular-season fourth-quarter comebacks since 2024, the most of any quarterback. Four have come this season.
Why do the Broncos start slow on offense?
Through three quarters, Denver's passing ranks 22nd this season. Nix has blamed early-down execution, and he's been pressured on a career-high 33% of dropbacks (Next Gen Stats). Orlovsky said it could “bite them at some point.”
How we did this
Snapp's NFL play-by-play warehouse with expected points added per play: the 2025 regular season and playoffs, plus 2026 through Week 8 (Monday, Nov. 2). Dropbacks are passes, sacks, touchdowns and interceptions; scrambles count as runs. “Late, down one score” means the fourth quarter or overtime, trailing by 1 to 8 points; ranks use regular-season games only. Touchdown, interception and record splits use the score before each snap, and “trailed” means the opponent led after any play. Snap-for-snap rank is Snapp's opponent-adjusted Week 8 table.