The Broncos and Browns win in the 4th quarter. That part doesn't last.
Denver's pass rush jumps from 25th to 6th late in close games, and Cleveland's offense from 30th to 15th. Since 2016, late form like that hasn't lasted. The first three quarters have, and both teams look ordinary there.
Denver's pass rush shows up in the 4th quarter. Cleveland's disappears.
“Fourth-quarter Broncos are back,” NFL.com's Nick Shook wrote after Denver came back from 11 points down to beat Kansas City 28-24. He's right about the 4th quarter. The trouble is the other three.
Patrick Mahomes dropped back 30 times in the first three quarters Sunday without being sacked, and the Chiefs led 24-13. Then Denver got him twice when it counted. The Browns win the same way, with their offense.
Even the pundits doubt these close wins
The close wins haven't fooled the pundits. Before Week 7, Yahoo's Frank Schwab wrote that the Broncos “find ways to win games” and called the Browns' run “not sustainable.” A week later Shook ranked the Browns 12th and wrote, “They can't keep getting away with this!”
Denver is 5-0 in one-score games, Cleveland 5-1
Broncos6-2
Browns5-3Denver has done this before, with 11 one-score wins in 2025. We said before Week 8 that both records leaned on close wins. So do those wins come from something that lasts, like a pass rush that closes, or from bounces?
Denver's pass rush shows up in the 4th quarter
Shook wrote that Denver's defenders have been “harassing quarterbacks relentlessly over the last month.” They have, in the 4th quarter. Late in close games, the Broncos have nine sacks in 73 dropbacks. That 12% rate ranks 6th in the NFL. In the first three quarters it's 5%, 25th.
Talanoa Hufanga's 66-yard pick-six beat the Rams, and Ja'Quan McMillian picked off Sam Darnold in overtime to beat Seattle.
Sunday followed the script. Alex Singleton sacked Mahomes on 3rd-and-2, pushing a 48-yard field goal back to 54, and Harrison Butker missed it wide right. Malcolm Roach then sacked Mahomes on 4th-and-goal to end it.
Late in close games, only Pittsburgh and Green Bay have been harder to move the ball against. Through three quarters, the same defense ranks 21st.
The Browns' offense wakes up late, too
Mary Kay Cabot wrote that the Browns are 5-3 “largely because of his five fourth-quarter comebacks,” meaning Deshaun Watson. Cleveland19's Browns roundup passed along John Taylor calling their point differential “preposterous.” Both are right.
- Watson's 3rd-and-10 touchdown pass put them ahead of Carolina late, and Andre Szmyt kicked walk-off field goals against Baltimore and Tennessee.
- Their pass rush is 4th-best for three quarters, then fades late.
- Nothing came late in Pittsburgh: the Steelers won 27-6 and sacked Watson eight times, four in the 4th quarter.
The 4th quarter is the part that doesn't carry over
Closing out games feels like the truest test. We checked every team over the last 10 seasons, and it holds up the least. A defense or offense that closed well through eight weeks told you almost nothing about how it would close after that.
Hot starters that closed games on defense fell back like everyone else
What carried over was the first three quarters, especially on offense. That's bad news for both teams. Through three quarters, Denver's offense ranks 26th and its defense 21st. Cleveland's offense ranks 30th.
Denver has caught more of the breaks
Loose balls are close to a coin flip, and Denver keeps winning them: 11 of the 18 fumbles in its games. Cleveland has recovered 9 of 23. Two Broncos close wins also came down to a missed 54-yarder, by Jacksonville's Cam Little and Butker.
Denver has recovered 11 of 18 fumbles, Cleveland 9 of 23
Commanders
Chiefs
Raiders
Lions
Buccaneers
SteelersBroncosBrowns (25th)
Rams (tied 30th)In the red zone, the two defenses are about even: Denver ranks 11th, Cleveland 13th. The Broncos visit Carolina and the Browns visit New Orleans on Nov. 8. Watch the first three quarters. Both games will be on our NFL predictions page.
Questions people ask
Are the Broncos for real in 2026?
Partly. Denver is 6-2 and 5-0 in one-score games because its defense takes over late. Its sack rate ranks 6th late in close games and 25th in the first three quarters. Since 2016, late-game edges like that haven't carried over.
How many one-score games have the Broncos and Browns won in 2026?
The Broncos are 5-0 in games decided by 8 points or fewer. The Browns are 5-1, and all five of their wins came by 4 points or fewer.
Why do the Browns keep winning close games?
Their offense wakes up late. Cleveland ranks 30th on offense for three quarters and 15th late in close games, behind Deshaun Watson's fourth-quarter comebacks and Andre Szmyt's walk-off field goals.
Do NFL teams that win a lot of close games early keep winning?
Less often. Since 2016, 30 teams started with at least four one-score wins and three more than their one-score losses. They won 74% of their games in the first eight weeks and 56% after.
Who do the Broncos and Browns play in Week 9?
The Broncos play at Carolina and the Browns play at New Orleans, both on Sunday, Nov. 8.
How we did this
Snapp's NFL warehouse: final scores from nfl_game_final and play-by-play from nfl_play_epa_named, 2026 regular season through Sunday, Nov. 1 (Week 8 minus Monday night's Bears at Seahawks; 120 games). One-score game: final margin of 8 points or fewer. Late in close games: plays in the 4th quarter or overtime of games that finished as one-score games. Dropbacks: completions, incompletions, passing touchdowns, interceptions and sacks; plays wiped out by an accepted penalty are dropped. Sack rate is sacks per dropback. Offense and defense ranks for quarters 1-3 and late in close games rank all 32 teams by expected points added (EPA) per play, raw (not adjusted for opponents), with penalties and field goals left out; red-zone ranks use the same measure on plays starting inside the 20. Fumble recoveries count every fumble in a team's games, its own and its opponents', with the recovering team read from the play-by-play; fumbles overturned on replay, wiped out by an accepted penalty, or knocked out of bounds are left out. History: every team from 2016 to 2025 with at least four one-score wins and three more one-score wins than losses in Weeks 1-8 (30 team seasons); “closed games on defense” means it allowed -0.15 EPA per play or better late in close games in Weeks 1-8 (10 teams); rest-of-season win % counts ties as half. Carry-over: across 319 team seasons, a defense's late-in-close-games EPA per play in Weeks 1-8 correlates 0.08 with the same number after Week 8 (offense 0.04). Against all plays after Week 8, the late numbers correlate 0.16 for defense and 0.12 for offense, while quarters 1-3 correlate 0.28 and 0.54. The 2016-2025 history keeps plays with accepted penalties. Quotes come from the linked articles.