Bears vs. Seahawks DFS: Seattle makes Colston Loveland the trap
Seattle has held all seven tight end groups it has faced under their usual fantasy output. Yet Colston Loveland is the one Bears pass catcher whose yards line sits above his season average.
Seattle has held all 7 tight end groups under their usual
Fantasy Life's Matt LaMarca says Colston Loveland "has taken off since Williams returned" (Fantasy Life, Nov. 2). Two touchdowns in two weeks back him up. The problem: Seattle has kept every tight end group it has faced below its usual fantasy night.
So build your DraftKings showdown around Seattle, go light on Loveland and look hard at Sam Darnold as captain. Lines checked at 1:22 p.m. PT; news before lock can change this.
Seattle takes about a third off every tight end it faces
Seattle shrinks the whole passing game, and tight ends get hit hardest (9.9 fantasy points a game against Seattle, 15.1 in their other games). Seven games is a small sample, but all seven point the same way.
Against Seattle, tight ends lose a third and receivers a quarter
- Kansas City's tight ends came closest (15.8 points, usually 17.8), and only they beat their usual yardage.
- Deep balls die in Seattle. Opponents have completed 11 of 36 deep throws, and no defense has been tougher on them.
- That hurts Rome Odunze most: 62% of his yards come on deep balls.
- RotoGrinders' Derek Farnsworth calls it "a tough matchup for all the Bears pass catchers" (RotoGrinders, Nov. 2). Tight ends get it worst.
Loveland is the one Bear priced above his average
The prop lines already knock Chicago's receivers down for this game. Luther Burden's yards line (52.5) sits 25% under his average, and Odunze's (38.5) sits 29% under. Loveland's (42.5) sits 22% above his. That's Cole Kmet's injury and two touchdown weeks talking.
42.5receiving-yards line tonight- His last two games were worth 38.4 fantasy points, and touchdowns made up 12 of them.
- Rotoballer's Koby Hanson notes "the Seahawks give up the second fewest yards to opposing TEs" but expects Chicago to need to throw (Rotoballer, Nov. 2).
Build around Seattle, with Darnold as captain
We built one cash and two tournament lineups with Snapp's optimizer, trimming Loveland 15% for the matchup, and rebuilt them at 1:22 p.m. PT: same picks, all within DraftKings' rules. Ownership is the tool's estimate.
As captain, Darnold projects like Williams for $1,200 less
Built at 1:22 p.m. PT. DraftKings points, captain at 1.5x; ownership is an estimate.
| Lineup | Captain | Flex (5) | Salary | Projection | Est. ownership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($18,000, 40%) | Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Jason Myers, Seahawks D/ST, Tory Horton | $50,000 | 87.8 | 231% summed |
| Tournament 1 | Sam Darnold ($14,100, 12%) | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Luther Burden III, Zach Charbonnet, Cooper Kupp, George Holani | $49,900 | 79.1 | 105% summed |
| Tournament 2 | Sam Darnold ($14,100, 12%) | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, D'Andre Swift, Zach Charbonnet, Kalif Raymond, Roschon Johnson | $49,900 | 80.2 | 121% summed |
Cash: Smith-Njigba at captain with both quarterbacks
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs CHI$18,00033.2
Caleb WilliamsCHI @ SEA$10,20016.8
Sam DarnoldSEA vs CHI$9,40016.7
Jason MyersSEA vs CHI$5,4008.8
Seahawks D/STSEA vs CHI$4,2006.6
Tory HortonSEA vs CHI$2,8005.7Tournament: Darnold at captain saves room for Burden
Sam DarnoldSEA vs CHI$14,10025.112%Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA vs CHI$12,00022.150%
Luther Burden IIICHI @ SEA$9,00011.914%
Zach CharbonnetSEA vs CHI$7,0008.08%
Cooper KuppSEA vs CHI$4,8007.416%
George HolaniSEA vs CHI$3,0004.66%- Cash pairs Jaxon Smith-Njigba at captain with both quarterbacks. Our feed has no kicking line, so Jason Myers carries Sleeper's 8.8 points with no downside built in. That flatters him.
- We left out Drew Lock, Darnold's questionable backup: with no prop lines, the tool guessed he'd be in nearly every lineup.
- Both tournament builds captain Darnold, which LaMarca calls "the superior option for me personally" (Fantasy Life).
- Smith-Njigba is the chalk captain (about 40%, estimated). Farnsworth calls him "the obvious choice at MVP and CPT tonight," and FTN's rankings have him first.
- Cheap, low-owned pieces: Zach Charbonnet, George Holani, Kalif Raymond and Roschon Johnson. Raymond is pure leverage; the market leans under on his catches.
Five pick'em sides the prop market likes
Snapp's pick'em board checked five pick'em sites against Pinnacle, DraftKings and FanDuel. These are the five sides the prop market likes most, and three are Bears catching fewer passes.
The prop market makes these five sides about 59% to 61% likely
Tory HortonSEA · ReceptionsPrizePicks·Underdog1.5Pick61.5Sleeper1.5Dabble·Market1.561% overOver 1.5
Kalif RaymondCHI · ReceptionsPrizePicks·Underdog2.5Pick62.5Sleeper2.5Dabble·Market2.560% underUnder 2.5Caleb WilliamsCHI · Passing TDsPrizePicks·Underdog1.5Pick61.5Sleeper1.5Dabble1.5Market1.560% underUnder 1.5Zach CharbonnetSEA · ReceptionsPrizePicks·Underdog1.5Pick61.5Sleeper1.5Dabble·Market1.560% underUnder 1.5
Rome OdunzeCHI · ReceptionsPrizePicks3Underdog3.5Pick63.5Sleeper3.5Dabble·Market3.559% underUnder 3.5No-vig chance from three prop markets at 1:22 p.m. PT. Pick6 pays per entry, so check your payout.
| Player | Line | Side | Pinnacle | DraftKings | FanDuel | Play on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tory Horton (SEA) | 1.5 catches | Over | 61.4% | 60.6% | 61.4% | Pick6 |
| Kalif Raymond (CHI) | 2.5 catches | Under | 60.2% | 61.0% | 61.0% | Pick6 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 1.5 TD passes | Under | 60.1% | 59.2% | 59.9% | Pick6, Dabble |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 1.5 catches | Under | 59.7% | 59.2% | 60.1% | Pick6 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3.5 catches | Under | 59.2% | 59.4% | 60.1% | Pick6 |
- Each is "the market makes this side about 60% likely," not a lock. Pick6 pays per entry and our feed doesn't show its payouts, so check the app.
- Williams under 1.5 touchdown passes also pays 1.80 on Dabble, which needs about 56% to break even.
- PrizePicks, Underdog and Sleeper have no plays here. Underdog and Sleeper pay less on the side the market likes (Raymond's under pays 0.79x on Underdog).
- No Loveland play: the market calls his yards line a coin flip.
What could change before 5:15 p.m. PT
- Inactives drop 90 minutes before kickoff. Drew Lock (elbow), Malik Muhammad (toe) and D'Marco Jackson (ankle) are questionable (NFL injury report).
- Jadarian Price (chest) showed as injured reserve in DraftKings' pool this morning but is now active after full practices. If he plays, he cuts into Charbonnet's work.
- Our game preview has the full matchup, the game page the live score, and our NFL predictions page more picks.
- Williams himself called Seattle "the best defense in football right now" (ClutchPoints).
Paid fantasy contests are for 18+ (21+ in some states) where legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Questions people ask
Who is the best captain for Bears vs. Seahawks DraftKings showdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects highest and will be the chalk. Sam Darnold is the value: he projects within half a point of Caleb Williams for $1,200 less.
Should I play Colston Loveland against the Seahawks?
Go light. Seattle has held all seven tight end groups it has faced under their usual fantasy output, by about a third.
What are the best pick'em plays for Bears vs. Seahawks?
As of 1:22 p.m. PT, the prop market liked Tory Horton over 1.5 catches, Kalif Raymond under 2.5 catches and Caleb Williams under 1.5 touchdown passes, each about 60% likely, on DraftKings Pick6. Pick6 pays per entry, so check your payout.
What time is Bears vs. Seahawks on Monday Night Football?
Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, at 5:15 p.m. PT (8:15 p.m. ET) at Lumen Field. Showdown contests lock at kickoff.
How we did this: DFS: DraftKings Showdown Captain Mode draft group 155609 (CHI @ SEA, $50,000 cap, captain scores 1.5x). Projections are Snapp's blend of no-vig prop lines from eight prop markets and the pick'em sites, Sleeper and ESPN component projections and FanDuel's own projection, rescored to DraftKings scoring, first read at 12:57 to 1:00 p.m. PT on Nov. 2 and rebuilt with the same settings at 1:22 p.m. PT (same lineups, re-validated with DraftKings' rules). Ownership is the tool's hand-set estimate (no site publishes ownership before lock), not a measured number. Lineups come from Snapp's optimizer: cash optimizes 0.75 x projection + 0.25 x floor; tournaments optimize each player's 85th-percentile outcome minus an ownership penalty (leverage 0.3, seed 1102, at least 3 players different). Our adjustments: kickers set to their Sleeper/ESPN consensus (Myers 8.79, Santos 7.44) because the prop feed had no kicking line, Loveland's projection cut 15% for the matchup (tournament and cash builds), and Drew Lock excluded as Seattle's backup. Pick'em: Snapp's pick'em board for CHI and SEA (PrizePicks, Underdog, Pick6, Sleeper, Dabble) with Pinnacle, DraftKings and FanDuel as the comparison books, first read at 1:09 p.m. PT and re-read at 1:22 p.m. PT (same five plays, same prices); a play is a side every compared book favors by enough to clear a slip's per-leg break-even (PrizePicks' standard payout table as the reference; Pick6 sets its own payouts) or, on a priced site such as Dabble, a side with positive expected value against every compared book. We show the five plays with the highest fair chance. In the pick'em chart, PrizePicks cells are blank where our feed only had an inferred line (Horton, Raymond, Williams, Charbonnet); check the app for those. Of the five, Dabble's board lists only the Williams line. Matchup numbers: Snapp's NFL warehouse, regular-season games through Nov. 1, 2026. Position-group fantasy points are PPR receiving points (catches + yards/10 + 6 per touchdown) summed by position per team game; 'usual' is the same team's average in its other games. Deep throws are passes the play-by-play marks as deep; deep-pass ranking is expected points per deep throw allowed. Season averages and target counts are from player box scores.