Maple Leafs vs. Golden KnightsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalT-Mobile Arena

Maple Leafs

3–4Final

Golden Knights

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	5	T
TOR	3	0	0	0	0	3
VGK	1	2	0	0	1	4

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 6.5 52¢

Why Empty Net Over likes it: Projection: 25% current / 75% prior-season rate blend gives 6.35 baseline goals.

Empty Net OverDown 8% this season · 49 picks

Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 1-3 on this game · −52% return

3-leg parlayLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at +29100
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Colorado averages 5.33 goals; Calgary averages 1.00 and allows 5.33, with Colorado winning three straight meetings.
- ProphetX re-quote is +292 with a $100 maximum; that sits inside the desk's +150 to +600 target.
- Montreal allows 4.67 goals per game; Demidov and Guhle are on IR, and both teams are 1-1-1.
Vegas Golden Knights −1.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US
Form GapDown 32% profit over 11 picks
Why it likes it
- Trailing-25 goal-difference gap is 1.96: Vegas +0.76 per game versus Toronto -1.20.
- The 1.96 gap clears the 1.2-goal qualification threshold by 0.76.
- US sportsbook references are +144 to +152 on Vegas -1.5; none is cheaper than 0.39.
- The 25-game sample contains only four current-season games; early-season form is noisy.
Game total over 6.5
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projection: 25% current / 75% prior-season rate blend gives 6.35 baseline goals.
- Empty-net adjustment: 34% occurrence × 1.38-goal gap adds 0.47, projecting 6.82 total.
- Vegas is the -160 favorite; Toronto's four regular-season results were all one-goal games, supporting a modest-margin pull script.
- Toronto's Sergei Bobrovsky is only listed Likely; a late goalie change could move the projection.
Game first-period total under 1.5 goals
−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Recent first-period goals average 1.75 for Toronto and 1.50 for Vegas across four games each.
- Team-rate matchup estimate puts the first-period mean near 1.65, 1.70 goals.
- The full-game ladder centers near 6.5, consistent with a first period below the league 1.76 baseline after nesting.
- The team samples are only four games and include several unusually high-scoring results.

Questions

Who won Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights?

The Golden Knights won 4–3 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.