Golden Knights vs. WildFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalGrand Casino Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| MIN | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 6.5 total goals 57¢
Why Goal Ladder likes it: Gap: 4.0 percentage points, clearing the 3.5-point threshold on a rung one step above the main line.
Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-2 on this game · +23% return
- Under 6.5 total goals+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 67% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Gap: 4.0 percentage points, clearing the 3.5-point threshold on a rung one step above the main line.
- Pinnacle's current 6.0 total is Over -105 / Under -107; the fitted mean is approximately 6.0 goals.
- Both starting goalies remain unconfirmed; this is reduced to 0.5u and goalie news could materially change the distribution.
- Game total over 5.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6.65-goal projection: 29.5 VGK shots and 27.1 MIN shots after 75% last-season / 25% current-season shrink.
- Shrunk finishing rates are 11.5% for Vegas and 11.3% for Minnesota; Vegas is the Pinnacle -109 favorite by a projected 0.36 goals.
- Projected goalies are not confirmed; Jesper Wallstedt's .916 prior save rate could suppress Vegas scoring, while Carter Hart's .891 could boost Minnesota.
- Vegas Golden Knights @ Minnesota Wild first-period total under 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team rates imply 5.48 expected game goals before period nesting.
- Nesting the 1.76/2.06/2.14 period means plus 0.2 late-game allowance gives first-period λ≈1.56.
- Poisson probability of zero or one first-period goal is approximately 53.8%.
- Carter Hart and Jesper Wallstedt are projected, not confirmed; a goalie change can move the first-period rate.
- Carter Hart over 23.5 total saves+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Minnesota's current 29.0 shots-for per game matches its 29.18 prior-season rate; Hart's complete-game rate is 1.00.
- Hart has only four current games; .910 raw save percentage and .908 regression are thin early-season inputs.
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6.65-goal projection: 29.5 VGK shots and 27.1 MIN shots after 75% last-season / 25% current-season shrink.
- Shrunk finishing rates are 11.5% for Vegas and 11.3% for Minnesota; Vegas is the Pinnacle -109 favorite by a projected 0.36 goals.
- Projected goalies are not confirmed; Wallstedt's .916 prior save rate is a direct threat to the Vegas scoring side of the total.
- Minnesota Wild to win+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
NHL Ice EdgeUp 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Wallstedt: +5.6 GSAx over five games; Hart: -4.5 over four, a large goalie-quality gap.
- Derived current GSAx and goalie TOI imply roughly +2.2 GSAx/60 for Minnesota’s projected net advantage.
- Minnesota’s current special-teams index is 131.6% versus Vegas at 111.7%, a 19.9-point edge.
- Hart remains projected rather than officially confirmed; lineup news could remove the goalie edge.
Questions
Who won Golden Knights vs. Wild?
The Wild won 4-2 on Monday, Oct 12, 2026.