Kings vs. Golden KnightsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalT-Mobile Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
Won3-leg parlay +53300
Why Parlay Lab likes it: Boston at 55.16c (-123): Bruins average 3.0 goals and allow 2.4; Philadelphia averages 1.2 and allows 3.8.
Parlay LabUp 24% return this season · 27 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-6 on this game · +4819% return
- Vegas Golden Knights −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsRung Seam, Form GapWhy 2 models like it
Rung Seam- Vegas -1.5 is the 2+ margin rung; 0.38 is 5 points below the 43% strongest-favorite base rate.
- The next favorite rungs are coherent at 0.26 for -2.5 and 0.12 for -3.5; the seam is isolated to 2+.
- A one-goal Vegas win, tie, or Kings win loses the -1.5 contract.
Form Gap- Trailing-25 goal-difference gap is 1.36: VGK +0.84 versus LAK -0.52, clearing the 1.2-goal gate.
- The brief's qualifying form bucket estimates roughly 0.43 fair probability for the favorite -1.5.
- Hart and Kuemper are projected, not confirmed starters; a late goalie change could materially alter the edge.
- Vegas Golden Knights to win+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsFade the Goalie, Cohort CheckWhy 2 models like it
Fade the Goalie- Darcy Kuemper's latest 10 starts: 210 saves on 248 shots (.847), roughly 14.8 saves below a .9065 starter benchmark.
- Vegas ranks 8th of 32 in current 5v5 shot-attempt share (.5759) and 2nd in goal differential (+8).
- Kuemper is a regular starter, not a backup; the latest-10 sample spans seasons and can regress sharply.
Cohort Check- Vegas: 4.2 goals per game, 2.6 against, 57.4% 5-on-5 Corsi; Kings: 3.0 goals, 5.0 against, 51.2% Corsi.
- Listed starters favor Vegas: Carter Hart .890 save percentage versus Darcy Kuemper .831 this season.
- The team and goalie samples are tiny: five Vegas games, three Kings games, and five combined goalie starts.
- 3-leg parlay+53300%Won
Taken at +53300
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Boston at 55.16c (-123): Bruins average 3.0 goals and allow 2.4; Philadelphia averages 1.2 and allows 3.8.
- Georgia at 46.73c (+114): 5-0 record, +0.2596 recent offensive EPA/play and 98.5 team grade versus Alabama's 95.9.
- Vegas at 61.24c (-158): Golden Knights are 4-1 with a 4.2, 2.6 goals-for/against profile; Los Angeles is 0-2-1 at 3.0, 5.0.
- Boston loses if suspended Charlie McAvoy and goaltending volatility outweigh the Flyers' poor attack; Philadelphia has won the last two meetings.
- Los Angeles Kings under 2.5 team goals+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Team Total SeamDown 103% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team ladders imply roughly 2.7 LA goals and 3.35 Vegas goals; their approximately 6.1-goal sum agrees with the game-total ladder.
- Pinnacle's 6-goal total and 60.8% Vegas moneyline probability imply a split near 3.7 Vegas / 2.4 LA.
- The stale LA ladder is the side that must move lower to reconcile its mean with the sharp-book moneyline split.
- This is internal Kalshi coherence, not an independent scoring model; the moneyline probability may not translate linearly into goal means.
- Vegas Golden Knights puck line −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US
Overtime TaxDown 31% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sharp moneyline reference makes Vegas roughly a 60.5% favorite, but overtime wins do not cover -1.5.
- Strong-favorite base rate is about 43% to win by 2+; this contract implies 38%.
- The 5-point gap clears OVERTIME TAX's minimum edge threshold.
- The 43% margin rate is a broad 2023-25 strongest-favorite base rate, not a game-specific margin model.
- Game total under 6.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Official Kings preview lists Kevin Fiala out; his 2025 role was 19.1 TOI per game and 40 points in 56 games.
- Mats Zuccarello is also confirmed out; he averaged 18.2 TOI through LAK's first three 2026 games.
- I estimate the two forward absences remove about 0.35 expected LAK goals; rebuilt total is about 5.9.
- The official preview's lineup block has an October 7 posting date, so the precise news timestamp is imperfectly documented.
Show all 9 picks
- Game total over 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model mean is 7.07 goals: blended team rates produce 6.87, plus 0.20 for empty-net scoring.
- Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0, and the favorite is -164 with a modeled 1.26-goal margin, inside the close-game gate.
- Both sides are quoted with a 1¢ gap; the 6.5 rung is monotone with the adjacent 5.5 and 7.5 rungs.
- The 6.5 rung needs seven goals, so a 6-goal finish loses despite a strong over-5.5 projection.
- Game total over 5.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model mean is 7.07 goals: blended team rates produce 6.87, plus 0.20 for empty-net scoring.
- Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0, while Vegas is only -164; this is a close-game favorite profile, not a -300 blowout.
- Both ladder sides are quoted with a 1¢ gap, and the 5.5/6.5/7.5 ladder is monotone and internally consistent.
- Current-season sample is only 3 Kings and 5 Golden Knights games; the 70/30 blend is still early-season sensitive.
- Tomas Hertl over 2.0 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 17 shots in 5 games this season: 3.4 per game, 70% above the 2.0 line.
- Last three shot totals are 2, 3, 3; two of three clear the strict over.
- Los Angeles allows 28.0 shots per game versus Vegas at 23.4, a softer shot environment for Hertl.
- Five-game sample is thin, and Hertl's last-three average is only 2.67.
Questions
Who won Kings vs. Golden Knights?
The Golden Knights won 2–1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.