Get app

Canadiens vs. CapitalsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCapital One Arena
Canadiens
4–5Final
Capitals
Score by period
Team123T
MTL2114
WSH2125

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 7.5 total goals 32¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Pinnacle main-line fit gives total expected goals of approximately 6.79; model probability of 8+ goals is 37.0%.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 10-1 on this game · +95% return

  1. Washington Capitals to win2 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCohort Check, Scratch Tape
    Why 2 models like it
    Cohort Check
    • Own estimate: Washington wins 56%, 3.0 points above the 53¢ Capitals contract.
    • MTL has allowed 22 goals in six games; WSH has allowed 18, while both have scored 19.
    • Both teams played Tuesday, so back-to-back fatigue and late-game variance cut against the home side.
    Scratch Tape
    • Mike Matheson is listed injured/out by the official NHL preview and omitted from Montreal's projected lineup.
    • Matheson has logged 1,449 seconds per game this season: 24.2 minutes, or 40.3% of a 60-minute regulation game.
    • The official preview is not minute-stamped, so some of the Matheson news may have been incorporated before the captured opening price.
  2. Over 7.5 total goalsLong shot
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main-line fit gives total expected goals of approximately 6.79; model probability of 8+ goals is 37.0%.
    • Pinnacle 7.5 prices (+203/-243) devig to approximately 31.8% over, keeping Novig within six points of sharp fair.
    • The total ladder is monotonic, and 7.5 is one rung above the 6.5 main total.
    • Montreal's Jakub Dobes is confirmed, but Washington's starter remains unconfirmed; this is sized at 0.5u.
  3. Game over 6.5 total goals
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jakub Dobes and Charlie Lindgren are confirmed; both are backups replacing Fowler and Thompson.
    • Montréal averages 61.67 shot attempts; Washington allows 64.50, blending to 63.09 and ranking Montréal 11th of 32.
    • The 0.3-goal-per-backup heuristic and 4-5-point conversion are approximate, not a calibrated model.
  4. Nick Suzuki over 2.5 shots on goal
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 SOG average: 3.0, exactly 0.5 above the 2.5 line.
    • Projected top-line center and PP1; L5 TOI averaged 23:02.
    • Washington's 29.5 SOG allowed/game ranks sixth-highest in the current team sample.
    • Washington's goalie and final defensive deployment were not confirmed in the official preview.
  5. Cole Caufield over 3.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on DraftKings

    NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L5 SOG average: 4.2, clearing the 3.5 line by 0.7.
    • Projected Montréal first line and PP1; L5 TOI averaged 20:44.
    • Washington has allowed 29.5 SOG/game, sixth-highest among current teams.
    • Washington's goalie and final defensive usage were not confirmed in the official preview.
  6. Game total over 5.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Novig

    Crease CheckNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Both confirmed starters are backups relative to the prior night: Dobes after Fowler, Lindgren after Thompson.
    • Last 25 starts: Dobes lost 0.50 save-percentage points versus expected; Lindgren lost 0.46.
    • At roughly 28.8 and 29.2 shots against per 60, the combined shortfall is about 0.28 goals per 60.
    • Pinnacle's live reference is 6.5, with 51.8% fair over; the 5.5 model is an extrapolation, not a directly quoted sharp rung.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Charlie Lindgren over 23.5 saves
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 67% win estimate versus FanDuel's 52.4% break-even at -110.
    • Montréal averages 28.5 shots per game and 29.4 across its last five.
    • Washington allows 29.5 shots per game; Lindgren is confirmed to start by NHL.com.
    • Lindgren has only one current-season start, so the goalie sample is thin.
  2. Montréal Canadiens @ Washington Capitals over 2.5 first-period goalsLong shot
    +245%Won

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Early-season team rates imply a first-period mean near 2.08 goals: MTL 1.00 GF/0.83 GA, WSH 1.33 GF/1.00 GA.
    • The full-game team-rate projection is about 6.33 goals, consistent with the posted 6.5 game-total market.
    • The first-period ladder is clean and monotone: over 0.5 at 0.86, over 1.5 at 0.59, over 2.5 at 0.29, over 3.5 at 0.12.
    • Only six completed games per team; early-season period rates are noisy.
  3. Lane Hutson over 1.5 shots on goal
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent five-game sample: 11 shots, or 2.2 per game, 46.7% above the 1.5 line.
    • Hutson is listed in Montréal’s projected lineup and is priced for this game on the live PrizePicks board.
    • PrizePicks price is -137; my 61% estimate clears the roughly 57.8% break-even rate.
    • The recent five-game sample is small and early-season usage can move quickly.
  4. Charlie Lindgren over 23.5 total saves
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days

Questions

Who won Canadiens vs. Capitals?

The Capitals won 5–4 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.