Stars vs. AvalancheFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBall Arena

Stars

3–2Final

Avalanche

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	5	T
DAL	0	1	1	0	1	3
COL	0	1	1	0	0	2

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game under 5.5 total goals 45¢

Why Rest Tax (NHL Kalshi) likes it: 185 both-B2B games from 2023-25 produced under 5.5 goals 49.7% of the time.

Rest Tax (NHL Kalshi)New · 3 graded so far

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How the picks did

Models went 1-6 on this game · −68% return

Colorado Avalanche to win2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at −160 on FanDuel
2 modelsCrease Workload, Fade the Goalie
Why 2 models like it
Crease Workload
- Dallas is on the back leg after Tuesday's 3-2 loss; posted starter Casey DeSmith has 1 of 6 Dallas starts and a .9231 save rate versus Jake Oettinger's .9439.
- Colorado is 4-2 with a +1.7 recent scoring margin; Dallas is 2-4 with a +0.3 margin entering this rematch.
- Most likely loss: Colorado is held to another low-event game and Dallas wins or takes overtime despite the goalie mismatch.
Fade the Goalie
- Daily Faceoff goalie-start data confirmed Dallas backup Casey DeSmith at 11:50 AM PDT.
- DeSmith has one 2026-27 start versus Jake Oettinger's five; current-season save rates are .923 versus .944, despite DeSmith's tiny sample.
- DeSmith's one-start sample is not negative GSAA evidence; the backup-role thesis is stronger than the performance sample.
2-leg parlayLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at +18500
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Colorado has scored 4.83 goals per game through six regular-season games versus Dallas at 2.17, with a 23-15 season goal differential edge.
- Blake Snell's 1.90 ERA and 11.60 K/9 give the Dodgers a clear probable-starter edge over Robert Gasser's 3.87 ERA and 8.48 K/9.
- ProphetX re-quoted this exact two-leg slip at +186, with $213 maximum stake at the best offer.
- Colorado played Dallas yesterday, creating back-to-back fatigue and reducing the home-ice edge.
Colorado Avalanche −1.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US
Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 1.5 is priced at 0.37, six points below the 43% 2+ win base rate for the strongest-form-gap favorites.
- The full-game ladder is monotone; COL 3+ is 0.24 and 4+ is 0.11, making the -1.5 rung the clearest 4-point-plus seam.
- COL's trailing form gap is 1.4 goals per game, qualifying for the brief's strongest-side base-rate bucket; DAL +1.5 at 0.64 also exceeds its 0.42 moneyline win price.
- A -1.5 puck line loses on a one-goal win, regulation tie, or overtime/shootout win.
Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at +110 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 12 points in six 2026-27 games: 2.0 per game, with 2+ in five of six.
- Colorado averages 4.83 goals per game and owns a 23.8% power play through six.
- MacKinnon is listed on Colorado's top line and priced as a participant by DraftKings.
- Dallas allows only 1.83 goals per game through six, a difficult defensive matchup.
Scott Wedgewood over 22.5 total saves
−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- His .8966 raw save percentage regresses upward toward .905 under the brief's early-season rule.
- Most likely loss: Dallas produces 22 or fewer shots, leaving Wedgewood below 23 saves.
Game under 5.5 total goals
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Rest Tax (NHL Kalshi)Up 118% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 185 both-B2B games from 2023-25 produced under 5.5 goals 49.7% of the time.
- Both-B2B games averaged 5.99 goals versus 6.19 when neither team was on a back-to-back.
- Pinnacle's 6.0 total is -106/-106; the schedule adjustment supports roughly 50% for under 5.5.
- Starting goalies are unconfirmed; a backup or late scratch could erase the schedule edge.

Questions

Who won Stars vs. Avalanche?

The Stars won 3–2 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.