Sabres vs. CanadiensFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalCentre Bell
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 5.5 61¢
Why Empty Net Math likes it: Pinnacle posts 6.5 at -101/-111; adding the brief's 0.20-goal empty-net tail gives a 6.7-goal Poisson mean and 65.9% over 5.5.
Empty Net MathNew · 4 graded so far
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-1 on this game · +10% return
- Game total over 5.5+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on Novig
Empty Net MathNew modelWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle posts 6.5 at -101/-111; adding the brief's 0.20-goal empty-net tail gives a 6.7-goal Poisson mean and 65.9% over 5.5.
- Montréal is the -155 Pinnacle favorite, and the fitted conditional share of one-goal favorite wins is approximately 56%, above the 38% gate.
- The total is unchanged at 6.5 from the opening capture, so unconfirmed goalies do not trigger the movement skip.
- Starting goalies remain unconfirmed; a late confirmation or scratch could materially change scoring expectations.
- Tage Thompson over 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at +132 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5.0 SOG average across six 2026 games; cleared 3.5 in four.
- Buffalo averages 27.3 shots per game; Montréal allows 28.4.
- Thompson is projected on Buffalo's first line and logged about 19:28 average ice time.
- Six-game sample is thin and provides no meaningful head-to-head evidence.
- Over 5.5 total goals+67%Won
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6.74 projected goals after hard-shrinking shot and finishing rates toward 2025 and adjusting for projected goalies.
- Montréal is the -155 sharp-book favorite; the model projects a 0.9-goal margin, creating the late one-goal empty-net setup.
- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is only listed as likely to start; a late goalie change materially shifts the estimate.
Questions
Who won Sabres vs. Canadiens?
The Canadiens won 4–3 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.