Kraken vs. PanthersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalAmerant Bank Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| FLA | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSam Reinhart over 2.5 shots on goal +104
Why NHL Shot Volume Hunter likes it: 21.3 average TOI and 389 seconds average PP time per game sustain opportunity.
NHL Shot Volume HunterUp 14% return this season · 34 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −40% return
- Sam Reinhart over 2.5 shots on goal+104%Won
Taken at +104 on FanDuel
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 21.3 average TOI and 389 seconds average PP time per game sustain opportunity.
- Seattle allowed 31.9 SOG/game over the last 15 days, clearing the 31.0 vulnerability threshold.
- FanDuel's +104 is inside the required -135 to +115 price band.
- The official preview is a projected lineup, not a warmup confirmation; late scratch or role change remains possible.
- Seattle Kraken +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Skellam fit anchored to Pinnacle’s 0.633 Florida moneyline and 6.0 total gives Florida 2+ win probability near 35.5%.
- Florida is without Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand and Radko Gudas; Seattle’s expected goalie is Joey Daccord.
- Seattle’s eight-game rates are 4.00 GF and 2.88 GA per game versus Florida’s 2.75 GF and 2.75 GA.
- Florida has home ice and Jacob Markstrom is expected back in goal after missing two games.
- Seattle Kraken to win−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US
Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Own rate model makes Seattle 52%, versus 36.4% implied by Pinnacle's devigged reference.
- Seattle scores 4.00 goals per game through eight; Florida allows 2.75, while Florida scores 2.75 versus Seattle allowing 2.875.
- Joey Daccord is listed first among Seattle's starting goalies with a .913 save percentage; Jacob Markstrom is confirmed for Florida at .904.
- Florida owns the stronger 5-on-5 Corsi rate, 56.6% versus Seattle's 42.9%, and has home ice.
- Seattle Kraken @ Florida Panthers over 5.5 total+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model mean is 6.39 goals: team-rate blend 6.19 plus 0.20 empty-net adjustment.
- Florida is a -185 sharp-book favorite, within the required -150-or-shorter profile without a blowout price.
- Pinnacle's sharp total is 6.0; DraftKings -155 and FanDuel -150 on 5.5 are both worse than the exchange price.
- Seattle's eight-game 4.00 goals-per-game sample is early-season and noisy.
- Matthew Tkachuk shots on goal under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at +100 on FanDuel
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 15 shots in 8 games: 1.88 per game, with the under landing 7 times.
- Last five shot totals are 1, 1, 2, 4, 2; under 2.5 in four of five.
- Stable 20.4-minute season role and live FanDuel pricing confirms participation in this game.
- Eight-game sample is early-season and one four-shot outing breaks the recent pattern.
- Game total under 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 6.04 goals after early-season shrinkage toward a 3.13 league scoring average.
- Sharp main total is 6.0; the model and sharp line differ by only 0.04 goals, clearing the goalie-total gate.
- Florida starter Jacob Markstrom is confirmed at 2.03 GAA; Seattle probable Joey Daccord has a 2.73 GAA.
- Daccord remains unconfirmed; a late goalie change could alter the projection, so this is half size.
Show all 9 picks
- Seattle Kraken first-period spread −0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US
Square FrameUp 3% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- First-period -0.5 prices are Kraken 29¢ and Panthers 75¢, implying -4% tie mass instead of the 34.1% baseline.
- First-period under 0.5 is 20¢, near the 17% zero-goal benchmark; tie probability should be at least that, reinforcing the broken spread pair.
- The 29¢/75¢ inconsistency may be spread and fee mechanics rather than a genuine mispricing.
- Florida Panthers to win+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NHL.com game-day preview confirms Seattle will be without Brandon Montour (lower body), not a rumor.
- Montour averaged 1,348 seconds across 8 games: 22.5 minutes, about 7.5% of Seattle's 300 skater-minutes.
- Usage-scaled estimate: 7.5% of Seattle's 2.875 goals allowed per game implies roughly +0.22 Florida goals.
- The +0.22-goal estimate is a linear usage proxy, not a player-impact model; replacement quality is unknown.
- Seattle Kraken @ Florida Panthers first-period total under 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team-rate blend projects 6.19 full-game goals: SEA 3.38, FLA 2.81.
- Nesting 6.19 across the brief's period means gives a 1.77 first-period mean.
- Only eight games of current-season team data make the 1.77 mean noisy.
Questions
Who won Kraken vs. Panthers?
The Panthers won 8–3 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.