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Kings vs. CapitalsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCapital One Arena
Kings
5–2Final
Capitals
Score by period
Team123T
LAK2035
WSH2002

Top model pick, graded

Won

Goal in first 10 minutes 57¢

Why First Ten likes it: Model estimates 64%: Los Angeles 0.50 plus Washington 0.54 ten-minute scoring hazards.

First TenDown 13% this season · 21 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-5 on this game · −3% return

  1. Washington Capitals −1.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Novig

    3 modelsForm Gap, Form Gap +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Form Gap
    • Trailing-25 goal differential gap is 1.32 per game for Washington versus Los Angeles.
    • Washington is at home and is not on a back-to-back; model fair is 43% on -1.5.
    • The 1.32 gap uses a rolling 25-game sample that includes prior-season results in this early season.
    Form Gap
    • Trailing-25 goal difference: Washington +0.44 per game versus Los Angeles -0.88, a 1.32-goal gap clearing the 1.2 filter.
    • The qualifying form-gap bucket wins by 2+ about 42.7%; 36¢ is below the brief's roughly 43¢ fair estimate.
    • The 25-game samples are early-season blends with last season, so the 1.32-gap estimate has meaningful model uncertainty.
    Overtime Tax
    • 59% moneyline market probability for Washington; its -1.5 contract costs 37¢.
    • Using a 38, 43% one-goal rate, the moneyline-implied 2+ fair price is roughly 43%.
    • Early-season samples are only eight Washington and six Los Angeles games.
  2. Goal in first 10 minutes
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    First TenDown 22% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates 64%: Los Angeles 0.50 plus Washington 0.54 ten-minute scoring hazards.
    • Los Angeles averages 29.8 shots across six games; Washington averages 26.0 across eight.
    • Confirmed starters are Darcy Kuemper (.847 save percentage) and Logan Thompson (.910), a below-average pairing that raises early scoring risk.
    • Washington's Thompson is only mildly shaky by current form; Kuemper is the much larger weakness.
  3. Artemi Panarin over 2.5 shots on goal
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NB projection is 58% over 2.5 SOG versus roughly 50% devigged Pinnacle probability.
    • Panarin averages 3.17 SOG in six games and cleared 2.5 in 4 of his last 6.
    • Washington allows 29.75 shots per game; Los Angeles averages 29.83 shots per game.
    • Projected, not warmup-confirmed, lines and PP units cap conviction at medium.
  4. Los Angeles Kings–Washington Capitals over 5.5 total goals
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Attack/defense blend projects 6.33 goals; adding the 0.20 empty-net adjustment gives a 6.53 mean.
    • Washington is a -155 favorite with Pinnacle's sharp total at 6.0, a close-game profile rather than the -300 blowout screen.
    • At a 6.53 Poisson mean, the six-or-more tail is about 63%; positive team-goal correlation modestly supports the upper tail.
    • Washington has only eight games and Los Angeles six in the sample; a simple sum of team scoring rates plus the adjustment is only 5.70.
  5. Darcy Kuemper under 25.5 saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Grade B (74/100): Kings Insider says Kuemper will start; DFO confirmed Thompson for Washington.
    • Kuemper recorded 32 unders in 45 full 2025 starts at 25.5 saves; average was 23.47.
    • Washington averages 26.0 shots; Los Angeles allows 26.5, supporting approximately 23.1 projected saves.
    • Kuemper’s 2026 full-start sample is only three games: 25.67 saves and one under.
  6. First-period under 1.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted 5.5 game total nested through 1.76/6.16 period scoring means gives first-period mean about 1.57.
    • Current team offense combines to 5.5 goals per game: Los Angeles 2.0, Washington 3.5.
    • Defensive rates point higher: Los Angeles allows 4.17 goals per game and Washington 3.00.
Show all 8 picks
  1. Alex Ovechkin under 2.5 shots on goal
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 shots in his last five games: 1.6 per game versus a 2.5 line (36% below).
    • Ovechkin stayed under 2.5 SOG in all five of those games.
    • NHL.com's live game preview projects Ovechkin active in Washington's lineup; PrizePicks also lists him for this game.
    • Washington power-play opportunities or an early deficit could force extra Ovechkin usage.
  2. Los Angeles Kings–Washington Capitals over 6.5 total goals
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The attack/defense blend plus the required empty-net correction produces a 6.53 projected mean before the positive-correlation tail boost.
    • The sharp total is 6.0, satisfying the desk's maximum-line gate; Washington's -155 price keeps this outside the blowout profile.
    • The 6.5 rung is much more model-sensitive than 5.5; using only team scoring rates plus 0.20 gives a materially lower seven-plus probability.

Questions

Who won Kings vs. Capitals?

The Kings won 5–2 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.

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