Ducks vs. FlyersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalXfinity Mobile Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAnaheim Ducks to win 48¢
Why Scratch Shift likes it: Confirmed at 8:00 AM: Philadelphia loses Travis Konecny, Cam York, and Rasmus Ristolainen; Joseph Woll is confirmed.
Scratch ShiftDown 2% this season · 26 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-7 on this game · −54% return
- Anaheim Ducks to win+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsScratch Shift, Scratch TapeWhy 2 models like it
Scratch Shift- Confirmed at 8:00 AM: Philadelphia loses Travis Konecny, Cam York, and Rasmus Ristolainen; Joseph Woll is confirmed.
- Those absences represent 18 of Philadelphia's 261 shots (6.9%) and 14,880 of 213,644 skater seconds (7.0%) this season.
- Lukas Dostal is expected, not confirmed; a late Anaheim goalie change could erase the edge.
Scratch Tape- Ristolainen was in the NHL preview projection about 18 hours ago but is confirmed out in Philadelphia's 8:00 AM lineup update.
- He averages 18:17 per game this season, roughly 30.5% of a 60-minute game; I estimate his absence adds 0.20 expected Ducks goals.
- Ristolainen has only three games in the current sample, so the 0.20-goal estimate is uncertain.
- Joseph Woll over 23.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −104 on FanDuel
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days - 3-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at +34200
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX quoted this exact three-leg slip at +343 with a $500 maximum stake; the games begin at 10:00 AM, 12:30 PM, and 3:00 PM PT.
- Flyers have five listed absences and the Ducks' projected Lukas Dostal lineup was not confirmed.
- Philadelphia Flyers over 1.5 goal margin−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
Margin MathDown 105% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent five-game goal-difference gap is 2.8: Philadelphia +0.6, Anaheim -2.2.
- Last season Philadelphia won by 2+ in 31.7% of games versus Anaheim's 23.2%.
- Philadelphia is only a slight moneyline favorite near 52%, not a dominant season-long team.
- Anaheim Ducks under 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5.37 blended goal expectation: Anaheim scores 2.70/game and allows 3.30; Philadelphia scores 1.67 and allows 3.08.
- Joseph Woll is confirmed at .917 save percentage; his 2.64 GAA supports a lower Flyers-side scoring environment.
- My estimate is 55% for five or fewer goals versus a 48¢ executable Under price.
- Lukas Dostal is only expected, not confirmed; his .881 save percentage creates real late-goalie uncertainty.
- Philadelphia Flyers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- League-shrunk past-regulation context is near 22%: ANA/PHI combined games are 18.2% past regulation this season and 29.9% last season.
- No game-side contradiction: Philadelphia is at home and has the better recent form signal, while Anaheim enters 0-5 over its last five.
- Goalies remain expected/unconfirmed: Lukas Dostal and Joseph Woll could still change before puck drop.
Show all 8 picks
- Anaheim Ducks first-period under 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team-period rates imply a first-period mean near 1.59 goals after nesting to the 5.5-5.4 game-total range.
- A 1.59-goal Poisson baseline gives about 52.8% for 0-1 first-period goals.
- Under 1.5 is offered at 47¢, roughly 5.8 probability points below that estimate.
- Two first-period goals lose immediately; hockey scoring variance is substantial around a 1.5-goal threshold.
- Porter Martone under 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1 five-on-five point in 12 games (0.08 per game) is well below the 0.5-point threshold.
- Philadelphia averages only 1.67 goals per game, 32nd in the league, limiting scoring distribution.
- Martone is confirmed active on Philadelphia's 8:00am lineup and is priced by PrizePicks for this game.
- Five-on-five scoring omits power-play points and can understate his total offensive role.
Questions
Who won Ducks vs. Flyers?
The Ducks won 5–4 on Saturday, Oct 24, 2026.