Blue Jackets vs. FlyersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalXfinity Mobile Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonColumbus Blue Jackets to win −118
Why The Stanley Cup likes it: 2.44 goals scored per game for Columbus versus Philadelphia's 1.85 through 9 and 13 games, respectively.
The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-6 on this game · −74% return
- Total under 6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Internal-coherence edge: Pinnacle 5.5 total (-108/-104) implies about 5.7 expected goals; fitted Poisson puts under 6.5 near 66%.
- Total ladder is monotonic; confirmed starters are Cam Talbot and Dan Vladar.
- The model's roughly 34% chance of 7+ goals still leaves a substantial loss path.
- CBJ @ PHI under 1.5 first-period goals−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5.43 projected game goals from matchup scoring/allowance rates (CBJ 2.84, PHI 2.59).
- Nesting the 5.43 total against 6.16 baseline goals across periods plus empty-net/OT gives a first-period mean near 1.55.
- Team-rate sample is early and uneven: Columbus has 9 games, Philadelphia 13.
- Dan Vladar over 24.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Vladar's 31.51 shotsAgainst/60 is 3.23 above the blend, within the 4.0 sanity limit; his completeGamePct is 1.00.
- Partial coverage: PHI has 13 games, CBJ 9, and Vladar 6 starts; the shot-rate blend uses 2025-26 team baselines.
- Columbus Blue Jackets to win+85%Won
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
The Stanley CupUp 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2.44 goals scored per game for Columbus versus Philadelphia's 1.85 through 9 and 13 games, respectively.
- Combined 5v5 Corsi/Fenwick share: Columbus 48.9% versus Philadelphia's 42.1%; both components point the same way.
- Estimated fair price: -122; worst acceptable price: -120. Confirmed Talbot has .9255 even-strength SV% versus Vladar's .9119.
- Goalie signals are mixed: Talbot's overall SV% is .8899 versus Vladar's .9000, and Vladar's quality-start rate is 80% versus 75%.
- Zach Werenski over 3.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at +110 on BetMGM
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 7.07 individual Corsi For attempts per game across his nine recent games; that shot-attempt rate clears the 3.5 SOG line.
- 29.0 minutes per game and PP1 deployment (3.9 PP minutes/game) provide unusually high opportunity.
- Philadelphia allows 31.46 shots on goal per game, third-most in the league and a bottom-10 suppression profile.
- Nine games is a limited sample, and the 29-minute workload may not persist.
- Under 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's 5.5 total was Under -103 / Over -109; Novig Under 5.5 cost 49¢ at 3:27:51 PM PDT.
- Both starting goalies were confirmed: Cam Talbot and Dan Vladar; team scoring rates imply about 5.33 goals as a diagnostic mean, not a probability.
- The edge is only about 0.31 percentage points over cost; Pinnacle is the probability anchor, not an independent forecast.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total under 5.5−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed starters: Cam Talbot for Columbus and Dan Vladar for Philadelphia; goalie participation gate cleared.
- Season scoring/defense rates imply 2.84 Columbus goals plus 2.59 Philadelphia goals: 5.43 combined.
- Under 5.5 in 15 of 22 combined current-season team games; the two teams went under in 7 of their latest 10 games combined.
- Only 9 Columbus and 13 Philadelphia games inform the early-season scoring rates; the sample is small.
Questions
Who won Blue Jackets vs. Flyers?
The Blue Jackets won 4–3 on Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026.