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Senators vs. SharksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSAP Center at San Jose
Senators
5–1Final
Sharks
Score by period
Team123T
OTT1315
SJ1001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Alex Nedeljkovic over 24.5 total saves −110

Crease WorkloadUp 16% return this season · 87 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-9 on this game · −26% return

  1. San Jose Sharks to win4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +130 on DraftKings

    4 modelsShot Share Lag, Brewing NHL Ml 2.0 +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Shot Share Lag
    • OTT blended team_SAT .4845, PDO 1.0060, expected_pp .4659, pointPctg .6071, divergence +.1412; its record is ahead of process.
    • SJS blended team_SAT .4678, PDO .9841, expected_pp .4291, pointPctg .5357, divergence +.1067; the cold PDO supports regression upward.
    • Both teams have only 14 current-season games, so the model is 50/50 blended with prior-season coverage rather than full.
    Brewing NHL Ml 2.0
    • Alex Nedeljkovic confirmed by Sheng Peng at 10:43am PDT; San Jose has a .904 current save rate and .902 prior-season baseline.
    • San Jose owns the special-teams matchup: 24.5% power play and 83.0% penalty kill versus Ottawa's 13.6% and 76.9%.
    • Ottawa leads close-state SAT 47.8% to 46.4% and close-state USAT 48.9% to 45.9%; the process layer points against this side.
    Morning Puck
    • Model makes San Jose 49% after shrinking 14-game team rates toward the 3.168 league scoring average.
    • Samuel Ersson is the expected Ottawa starter: .849 save percentage and 4.47 GAA in six games.
    • Both starters are expected, not confirmed; a goalie change could remove most of the edge.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Confirmed Alex Nedeljkovic owns a .903 save percentage; confirmed Samuel Ersson is at .849 for Ottawa.
    • Ottawa is 8-5-1 with 3.14 goals per game versus San Jose's 7-6-1 and 2.86; the baseline favors the Senators.
  2. San Jose Sharks +1.5Favorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCohort Check, high-confidence main markets
    Why 2 models like it
    Cohort Check
    • Pinnacle devig is 64.7%; Samuel Ersson is confirmed at .849 save percentage versus Alex Nedeljkovic at .903.
    • Ottawa averages 3.143 goals and San Jose allows 3.357, but the confirmed goalie matchup limits confidence in an Ottawa margin.
    • Ersson's 4.47 goals-against average can create a multi-goal Ottawa win despite the protection.
    high-confidence main markets
    • 67% own cover probability versus 64.8% implied at -184; fair price about -203.
    • Confirmed Alex Nedeljkovic owns a .903 save percentage and 60% quality-start rate this season.
    • Ottawa has the better 14-game record, 8-5-1 versus San Jose 7-6-1, and a slight 5-on-5 Corsi edge.
  3. Alex Nedeljkovic over 24.5 total saves
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
  4. Game total over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's 6.5 total is -112 over / +100 under, devigging to 51.4% over as the sharp reference.
    • Samuel Ersson and Alex Nedeljkovic are confirmed; each is behind his team's higher-start goalie this season.
    • The backup-goalie adjustment is a heuristic, and both teams have only 14 games of current-season data.
  5. Game total over 5.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected total is about 6.9 after adding the +0.21 empty-net term.
    • Ottawa is the -155 market favorite with an estimated 0.4-goal margin; that is the required clear-favorite setup.
    • Both projected goalies are unconfirmed; Samuel Ersson's current .849 save rate makes the blend sensitive.
  6. Ottawa Senators −1.5
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ottawa covers by 2+ at 40%; implied fair price is 40¢.
    • San Jose confirmed backup Alex Nedeljkovic; Ottawa's current moneyline is -154 to -155 at US books.
    • Current 14-game rates imply Ottawa 3.14 GF/game versus San Jose allowing 3.36; the +0.3-goal backup allowance lifts the goal-difference distribution.
    • Ottawa also starts backup Samuel Ersson with Linus Ullmark out, reducing the net-goalie edge.
Show all 10 picks
  1. OTT-SJS under 1.5 first-period goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup rate blend is 6.25 expected goals versus the 6.5 full-game market line.
    • Nesting 6.25 through the league period means gives a first-period mean near 1.79.
    • The first-period ladder is monotone; this 1.5 rung is the only traded rung with both sides quoted cleanly.
    • Both projected starters are expected, not confirmed: Samuel Ersson and Yaroslav Askarov.
  2. Shane Pinto over 2.0 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 14 shots over Pinto's last five games equals 2.8 per game, 40% above the 2.0 line.
    • Pinto is confirmed in Ottawa's lineup; his 14-game season average is 2.0 shots, so the recent spike supplies the value.
    • The -137 PrizePicks price requires roughly 57.8% before accounting for any push at exactly two.
    • The 2.0 threshold pushes at exactly two; the over needs at least three shots.
  3. Alex Nedeljkovic over 24.5 saves
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nedeljkovic cleared 24.5 saves in 4 of 5 qualifying 2026 starts: 29, 31, 25, 32, 24 saves.
    • Ottawa averaged 29.0 shots in its last five versus 25.1 season-long; San Jose goalie workload is 29.85 shots against per 60.
    • Confirmed starter at 10:50am; season line is .903 save percentage with 3 quality starts in 5 starts.
    • Only five qualifying starts: 80% is an unvalidated conditional empirical reference, not a calibrated forecast.
  4. Under 6.5 total goals
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Cohort CheckDown 26% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The teams combine for 6.00 goals per game across 14 games, below the 6.5 threshold.
    • Sharp-book devig is 48.6% for the under; Nedeljkovic's confirmed .903 save percentage supports a modest downward adjustment.
    • Ersson is confirmed despite a .849 save percentage and 4.47 goals-against average, a major over catalyst.

Questions

Who won Senators vs. Sharks?

The Senators won 5–1 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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