Oilers vs. IslandersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUBS Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 6.5 55¢
Why Scratch Tape likes it: Official lineup data was confirmed at 9:50 AM PDT: Zach Hyman and Mathew Barzal are out; both are top-line forwards.
Scratch TapeDown 25% this season · 34 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-7 on this game · −18% return
- New York Islanders to win−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCohort Check, Shot Share LagWhy 2 models like it
Cohort Check- Model price: Islanders 52.5%, using team goal rates plus confirmed Sorokin (.915) versus Jarry (.889).
- Edmonton scores 4.308/game but New York allows only 2.692; Sorokin is the stronger confirmed starter.
- Edmonton's 4.308 goals per game is the matchup's largest offensive input and can overwhelm the goalie edge.
Shot Share Lag- Blended team_SAT: New York Islanders 0.521 versus Edmonton Oilers 0.508; the possession edge is with New York.
- Blended team_PDO: New York 0.999 versus Edmonton 1.013; Edmonton's hot PDO supports fading its inflated record.
- New York is on a back-to-back after playing Minnesota on October 29; the rest adjustment cuts its expected_pp by 0.030.
- Ilya Sorokin over 24.5 total saves−100%Lost
Taken at −120 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days - Brayden Schenn over 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Novig
role repricingDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mathew Barzal is confirmed out; Schenn is listed on the expected second line and first power-play unit.
- Schenn has 9 points in 13 games; his season rate is 0.692 points per game.
- Schenn averages 198.7 power-play seconds and 2.787 power-play points per 60 this season.
- The line combination is expected, not an official shift chart; Schenn's exact workload could remain unchanged.
- New York Islanders +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at −258 on DraftKings
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ilya Sorokin is confirmed at .915 save percentage and 5 quality starts in 9 starts; Tristan Jarry is at .889 and 3 quality starts in 6.
- Islanders lead five-on-five SAT share .5184 to Edmonton's .4765 and allow 2.615 goals per game versus Edmonton's 3.231.
- Confirmed goalies and current injury reports remove the primary personnel gate; spread movement favored Islanders +1.5 from -225 to -258.
- Edmonton scores 4.31 goals per game and has a 35.7% power play versus New York's 17.1%, creating multi-goal and empty-net risk.
- Game total under 6.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Official lineup data was confirmed at 9:50 AM PDT: Zach Hyman and Mathew Barzal are out; both are top-line forwards.
- Hyman averaged 20.0 minutes last season and Barzal 20.7; each represents about 6.7%, 6.9% of a team's 300 skater-minutes.
- Their prior-season goal rates imply roughly 0.77 combined goals per game before replacement-player credit; current team scoring projects near 6.7 combined goals before that subtraction.
- Replacement forwards can recover part of Hyman's and Barzal's offense, so the raw 0.77-goal subtraction overstates the true team impact.
- Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −160 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10 of 13 current-season games reached 3+ shots; 3.615 shots per game.
- Confirmed participation with 21.71 average minutes across 13 current-season games.
- Edmonton averages 26.1 shots per game; New York allows 26.2 shots per game.
- Sorokin is confirmed, with a .915 current-season save percentage and 2.34 goals-against average.
Show all 11 picks
- Connor McDavid over 1.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at +100 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10 of 13 current-season games reached 2+ points; 2.769 points per game.
- Confirmed participation and 23.49 average minutes across the 13-game sample.
- Edmonton averages 4.31 goals per game; Hyman’s absence concentrates elite-line opportunity.
- Three misses in the 13-game sample show meaningful scoring variance.
- Edmonton Oilers to win+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edmonton is 9-2-2 with 4.31 goals per game; New York is 7-4-2 with 3.08.
- Edmonton's 35.7% power play materially exceeds New York's 17.1% season rate.
- Research quality: 74/100; confirmed Tristan Jarry reduces the largest Edmonton availability uncertainty.
- Polymarket US's home probability moved from 45.5¢ to 49.5¢; market movement favors New York and conflicts with this estimate.
- Vasily Podkolzin over 0.5 points+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 8 points in his last 10 games (0.80 per game), 60% above the 0.5 line.
- Confirmed on Edmonton's top line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
- Edmonton averages 4.23 goals per game; Islanders allow 3.23, a favorable scoring environment.
- The 10-game point total does not establish the exact over-hit count; one-point variance is substantial.
- Under 5.5 total goals+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed starters are Tristan Jarry and Ilya Sorokin; Sorokin owns a .915 season save rate and 55.6% quality-start rate.
- Season form is mixed but defensive context supports restraint: NYI allow 26.2 shots/game and Edmonton's PP is 35.7%; key forwards are out on both sides.
- Recent five-game goal totals were high: Edmonton 7.6 and Islanders 6.6 per game, opposing the under.
- Edmonton Oilers two-way to win+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edmonton two-way +100 implies 50.0%; regulation +142 implies 41.3%; tie +310 implies 24.4%.
- REFERENCE only: Edmonton is 9-2-2 with 4.308 goals per game, and Tristan Jarry is confirmed.
- The three-way board has a 5.7% raw overround; the unadjusted reconciliation gap can overstate fair separation.
Questions
Who won Oilers vs. Islanders?
The Oilers won 4–0 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.