Blues vs. Red WingsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalLittle Caesars Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| DET | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSt. Louis Blues to win 49¢
Why Scratch Tape likes it: Dylan Larkin is confirmed out in Detroit's official preview; he had 21.7 minutes/game and 6 points in 10 games.
Scratch TapeDown 25% this season · 34 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −37% return
- St. Louis Blues to win+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dylan Larkin is confirmed out in Detroit's official preview; he had 21.7 minutes/game and 6 points in 10 games.
- That is 36.2% of a regulation clock, about 7.2% of Detroit's 300 skater-minutes; conservative offensive swing is approximately 0.30 goals.
- Polymarket US opened Blues around 49.5c and is now 49c, so essentially none of the absence's estimated win impact has been absorbed.
- Larkin's absence was known before the first captured Polymarket quote, so the timing read may overstate what remains unpriced.
- Lucas Raymond over 2.5 shots on goal+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 16 shots in his last five games: 3.2 per game, 28% above the 2.5 line.
- Raymond is in Detroit's confirmed lineup; PrizePicks -137 implies about 57.8%, below my 63% estimate.
- Raymond's projected second-line role and an unfavorable game script could reduce attempts.
- Detroit Red Wings to win−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Detroit averages 29.92 shots for and 25.31 against; St. Louis averages 27.38 for and 28.08 against.
- Joel Hofer is expected and unconfirmed (.923 save percentage); John Gibson is confirmed but only .875 this season.
- St. Louis Blues −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on ProphetX
Scratch ShiftDown 56% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NHL.com confirms top-line center Dylan Larkin is out; this is not a questionable tag.
- Larkin played 21.7 minutes per game before the absence; he has 2 of Detroit's 37 goals and 32 of 389 shots this season.
- Last season's larger role supports the impact: 34 goals and 20.2 minutes per game; the current rate is shrunk toward that baseline.
- The current-season player sample is only 10 games, so the exact win-probability swing is uncertain.
- Viktor Arvidsson over 0.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
role repricingDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 88% more power-play time than 2025: 223.8 versus 118.8 seconds per game.
- Arvidsson is projected on Detroit's first line and first power-play unit after Larkin, Kasper and Appleton absences.
- Current 5v5 rates: 0.984 goals/60 and 0.984 primary assists/60.
- The line and PP1 assignment are expected, not officially confirmed; warmup changes could reduce workload.
- St. Louis Blues −1.5 puck line−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX
Gap FavoriteDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Historical gap-favourite base rate is 42.7% to win by 2+, implying fair odds near +134; empty-net goals are included.
- The full spread ladder is monotone: St. Louis -2.5 is +385 and -3.5 is +1100; both sides are quoted at -1.5.
- John Gibson is confirmed for Detroit with a .874 current-season save percentage and 3 quality starts in 9 starts, clearing the non-elite-goalie gate.
- Joel Hofer is expected rather than confirmed for St. Louis; a late goalie change would materially alter the projection.
Questions
Who won Blues vs. Red Wings?
The Blues won 5–4 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.