Senators vs. Golden KnightsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalT-Mobile Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VGK | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonVegas Golden Knights to win −160
Why The Stanley Cup likes it: Vegas has the stronger combined possession profile: 52.6% Corsi and 53.7% Fenwick; Ottawa is 46.8% and 49.2%.
The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −42% return
- Over 5.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on Novig
Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle’s -110/-103 at 6.5 de-vigs to 50.8% over; the fitted Poisson total is about 6.72 goals.
- Poisson is an approximation; empty-net goals, overtime and scoring dependence can distort the distribution.
- Vegas Golden Knights to win+63%Won
Taken at −160 on FanDuel
The Stanley CupUp 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Vegas has the stronger combined possession profile: 52.6% Corsi and 53.7% Fenwick; Ottawa is 46.8% and 49.2%.
- Vegas averages 29.8 shots for and allows 25.0; Ottawa averages 25.3 for and allows 25.9.
- Both starters are confirmed; Hill’s current-season .881 save rate and 40% quality-start rate edge Johansson’s .857 and 0% (one start).
- No xG/xGA data surfaced; possession is the proxy, so conviction is capped.
- Ottawa Senators +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 75¢ on ProphetX
Fair FenceUp 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- the <0.4 goal-differential-gap bucket saw favourites win by 3+ in 128 of 601 games; dog +2.5 fair ≈78.7% (about -370).
- Ottawa's goalie Jonas Johansson and Vegas's Adin Hill are both confirmed starters. Reference: NO REFERENCE for this alternate rung.
- The empirical bucket rate still gives about a 21% chance of a favourite winning by 3+; one lopsided game loses the ticket.
- Adin Hill over 21.5 total saves+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hill's .8819 savePct through 5 starts is 2.31 points below .905; the prescribed regression leans over.
- Ottawa's current 25.42 shots-for/G through 12 games is below the 28.91 prior-season rate used in the model.
- Ottawa Senators +1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 63¢ on Novig
NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Ottawa is 8-4 overall and 3-2 in its last five; Vegas is 8-4-1 and 1-2-1 in its last four.
- Both goalies confirmed; Ottawa's Johansson faced 29 shots in his lone current-season start.
- The 0.02-point probability cushion is effectively zero; a tiny market-input or execution change erases the calculated edge.
- Ottawa Senators to win−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- League-shrunk scoring rates (~3.0 Ottawa, ~3.3 Vegas) put Ottawa near 45.5% in a Poisson win estimate including overtime.
- Pinnacle -156/+140 devigs Ottawa to about 40.6%; the model is roughly 4.9 percentage points higher.
- Jonas Johansson is confirmed but his .857 save percentage and 4.03 GAA come from just one start; the sample is extremely thin.
Questions
Who won Senators vs. Golden Knights?
The Golden Knights won 4–1 on Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026.