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Maple Leafs vs. CanucksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRogers Arena
Maple Leafs
4–2Final
Canucks
Score by period
Team123T
TOR1214
VAN1012

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 5.5 total goals 65¢

Why Goal Ladder likes it: Pinnacle 6.5 total (-122/+109) fits to 6.90 expected goals.

Goal LadderUp 49% return this season · 51 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-5 on this game · −12% return

  1. Toronto Maple Leafs to win2 models agree
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsBETALAB 6.0, NHL Ice Edge
    Why 2 models like it
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Toronto owns the stronger 15-game profile: +5 goal differential versus Vancouver's -23.
    • Confirmed Anthony Stolarz has a .906 save percentage; Vancouver's expected Kevin Lankinen is at .8122 this season.
    • Lankinen remains expected/unconfirmed; a switch to Vancouver's stronger alternative goalie materially narrows the edge.
    NHL Ice Edge
    • Season 5v5 CF share: Toronto 46.8% versus Vancouver 42.5%, a 4.3-point baseline gap.
    • Last-10 shot differential: Toronto -1.5 per game versus Vancouver -12.5, an 11.0-shot matchup gap.
    • Kevin Lankinen remains projected/unconfirmed, so the goalie gate is not fully official.
  2. Over 5.5 total goalsFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Novig

    Goal LadderUp 58% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 6.5 total (-122/+109) fits to 6.90 expected goals.
    • Toronto averages 3.733 goals per game; Vancouver allows 4.533 through 15 games.
    • Kevin Lankinen is expected, not confirmed; this is sized 0.5u.
  3. William Nylander over 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.0 SOG/game over the last 10, exactly 0.5 above the 2.5 line; 3+ in 7 of 10.
    • Confirmed participant with projected first power-play unit and second forward line.
    • Vancouver allows 32.2 SOG/game this season and 31.83 over the last 15 days.
    • The 3.0 mean leaves little margin; one quiet shift pattern can lose at two SOG.
  4. Leevi Meriläinen over 26.5 goalie saves
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    NHL Player Prop EdgeUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Vancouver allowed 33.0 opponent shots/game over its last 10.
    • Toronto averages 28.1 shots on goal per game this season.
    • Meriläinen is the confirmed Vancouver starter; the FanDuel line is 26.5 at -106.
    • Toronto can convert early chances, reducing saves even if shot pressure is strong.
  5. Over 6.5 total goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.33 current matchup-rate baseline shrunk 50/50 toward 6.27 last-season baseline gives 6.80 goals.
    • Adding the 0.34-goal empty-net adjustment produces a 7.14 projected total, 0.64 above 6.5.
    • Toronto is a clear -176 favorite; 10 of its last 15 games finished within two goals, supporting a modest-margin lead script.
    • Kevin Lankinen is expected rather than confirmed; late goalie news could materially change the projection.
  6. Easton Cowan over 0.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cowan has scored in all five recent games: 1, 1, 1, 1, 3 points; 1.4 average versus a 0.5 line.
    • That recent average is 180% above the projection, clearing the 10% value trigger by a wide margin.
    • Vancouver allows 4.533 goals per game and its expected starter Kevin Lankinen owns an .8122 save percentage.
    • Cowan's five-game sample is small and point production can regress sharply.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Auston Matthews under 3.5 shots on goal
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Novig

    NHL Active v2Down 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matthews averaged 3.13 SOG and 5.33 individual shot attempts over the 15-game sample; attempts-to-SOG conversion was 58.8%.
    • Current role is top-line and expected PP1, but Vancouver allows 32.3 shots per game; the under is a role/sample read, not a matchup fade.
    • The 9-of-15 exact-line rate is an unvalidated conditional empirical reference, not a calibrated forecast.
  2. Elias Pettersson under 1.5 shots on goal
    +130%Won

    Taken at +130 on FanDuel

    NHL Player Prop EdgeUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 1.53 season SOG/game and 1.50 over his last 10 games.
    • 3.70 individual shots per 60 despite roughly 20.1 minutes per game.
    • Confirmed active in Vancouver's top nine; projected first power-play unit.
    • Toronto allows 29.33 shots per game, so this is not a suppression-led matchup.
  3. Toronto Maple Leafs −3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 15-game rates shrunk toward the 3.168 league average produce roughly 4.1 Toronto and 3.2 Vancouver goals.
    • Confirmed Anthony Stolarz (.907) and expected Kevin Lankinen (.812) create a meaningful projected goalie mismatch.
    • Poisson margin model gives Toronto roughly a 17% chance to win by four or more; the contract costs 15¢.
    • Lankinen is expected, not confirmed; a switch to Leevi Merilainen materially lowers Toronto's scoring projection.

Questions

Who won Maple Leafs vs. Canucks?

The Maple Leafs won 4–2 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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