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Blue Jackets vs. StarsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAmerican Airlines Center
Blue Jackets
1–3Final
Stars
Score by period
Team123T
CBJ0011
DAL2013

Top model pick, graded

Won

Dallas Stars to win −184

Why The Stanley Cup likes it: Dallas owns a 52.1% 5-on-5 Corsi share and 53.0% Fenwick share; Columbus sits at 47.9% and 47.2%.

The Stanley CupUp 13% return this season · 39 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-7 on this game · −5% return

  1. Dallas Stars to win4 models agree
    +54%Won

    Taken at −184 on FanDuel

    4 modelsThe Stanley Cup, NHL Ice Edge +2
    Why 4 models like it
    The Stanley Cup
    • Dallas owns a 52.1% 5-on-5 Corsi share and 53.0% Fenwick share; Columbus sits at 47.9% and 47.2%.
    • Jake Oettinger is confirmed: .9167 save percentage, 1.688 GAA, versus Jet Greaves at .8841 and 3.291.
    • Small early-season samples: 13 Dallas games and 11 Columbus games.
    NHL Ice Edge
    • Season 5v5 CF share: Dallas 52.1% versus Columbus 47.7%, a 4.4-point baseline advantage.
    • Last-10 shot differential: Dallas +3.7 per game versus Columbus -2.4, a 6.1-shot gap.
    • Dallas is without Matt Duchene, Radek Faksa and Oskar Bäck, reducing center depth.
    Cohort Check
    • Team rates blend to a Dallas scoring edge: DAL 2.692 GF/2.308 GA versus CBJ 2.545 GF/3.273 GA.
    • Confirmed starters favor Dallas: Jake Oettinger .9167 save percentage, 1.688 GAA; Jet Greaves .8841, 3.291 GAA.
    • The independent edge is only 2.39 points, so one-goal and overtime variance dominate.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Dallas is 7-5-1 with a +5 goal differential; Columbus is 5-6-0 with -8.
    • Dallas allows 2.31 goals and 22.1 shots per game versus Columbus at 3.27 and 27.7.
    • Dallas has lost its last two home games and scored only three goals across them.
  2. Jake Oettinger under 21.5 saves3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    3 modelsNHL Player Prop Edge, Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix +1
    Why 3 models like it
    NHL Player Prop Edge
    • Dallas allows 22.1 shots on goal per game, a strong suppression profile.
    • Oettinger averages 18.7 saves across 10 full starts this season.
    • The recent 10-start sample is still modest and includes unusually low shot counts.
    Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix
    • 17.8 saves per start across his last five starts, all below 21.5.
    • Under 21.5 in 5 of those 5 starts; Dallas faced only 22.4 Columbus shots per game over CBJ's last five.
    • Columbus had a 37-shot outlier in the sample that would threaten this number.
    NHL Active v2
    • Exact October starter sample: Oettinger stayed under 21.5 saves in 7 of 9 starts.
    • Season workload: 20.4 shots against and 18.7 saves per start; 0.9167 save percentage.
    • Dallas has allowed 27 and 21 shots in its last two games; CBJ could generate more attempts than season baseline.
  3. Game total over 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Empty Net LedgerUp 41% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended 80% last season/20% current rates project 5.90 non-empty-net goals.
    • Dallas is the confirmed favorite at roughly -178 sharp, with an expected margin near 0.7 goals, the empty-net setup.
    • Pinnacle's sharp alternate total is 6.0, clearing the desk's required 6.0 minimum.
    • A 6.11 projection is close to the 5.5 threshold; ordinary scoring variance can keep this at five or fewer.
  4. Dallas Stars −1.5 puck line
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Spare Crease SpreadUp 46% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 44% projected cover probability, implying a fair 44¢ contract, from a goal-difference distribution including empty-net scoring.
    • Jet Greaves is confirmed for Columbus: .884 save percentage, 3.29 GAA, and 1 quality start in 6 starts.
    • Jake Oettinger is confirmed for Dallas: .917 save percentage and 1.69 GAA this season.
    • Dallas has covered by 2+ in only 4 of 13 games this season; the recent goal-margin sample is noisy.
  5. Kent Johnson over 1.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Novig

    role repricingDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected first line and first power-play unit; Columbus posted “KJ ON THE POWER PLAY” on Oct. 29.
    • Johnson averages 2.18 shots through 11 games and cleared 1.5 in 8 of 11.
    • His 5v5 shot-share proxy is 50.4%, with 62.1% offensive-zone starts.
    • DailyFaceoff’s current unit assignment is projected, not an official PP confirmation.
  6. Jason Robertson over 2.5 shots on goalFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −210 on BetMGM

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected mean 3.62 SOG from 40/35/25 season-L20-L10 rate blending, with 60.6% prior-season weight.
    • Robertson cleared 2.5 SOG in 9 of his last 10; he logged 36 SOG with 20.6 minutes per game.
    • Expected second-line and PP1 roles held across at least five recent role snapshots; Columbus allows 27.7 shots per game versus 27.23 league average.
    • The stress result is only narrowly above the 60% requirement; modest TOI loss can erase the cushion.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Kent Johnson over 0.5 points
    +120%Won

    Taken at +120 on Hard Rock Bet

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of Johnson's 11 games this season cleared 0.5 points (72.7%).
    • He cleared in 7 of his last 10; his last-five average is 1.2 points.
    • Last-five workload averaged 17.3 minutes, with confirmed participation tonight.
    • Dallas allows only 2.31 goals per game and owns a 52.1% five-on-five Corsi share.
  2. Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Shrunk early-season rates project roughly 2.4 Columbus goals and 3.0 Dallas goals; a two-goal Dallas win is less likely than the market implies.
    • Dallas -1.5 is only 40¢ on Polymarket US, while Columbus +1.5 is the liquid complementary side at 61¢.
    • Jet Greaves is expected, not confirmed, and his current save percentage is only .884.
  3. Game under 5.5 total goals
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dallas allows 2.31 goals/game with 52.1% Corsi; confirmed Jake Oettinger owns a .9167 save percentage and 1.688 GAA.
    • Dallas scored 1 and 2 goals in its last two games; Matt Duchene is confirmed out, reducing offensive depth.
    • Columbus confirmed Jet Greaves, whose .8834 save percentage and 3.291 GAA materially raise the over risk.
  4. Mikko Rantanen over 0.5 pointsFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at −230 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rantanen recorded a point in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 1.6 points.
    • Columbus allowed 29.8 shots and 3.0 goals per game over its last five, a favorable matchup for Dallas's top-line scorer.
    • Rantanen is confirmed in the Dallas lineup and faces confirmed starter Jet Greaves.
    • Rantanen was held scoreless in one of his last five and point props are highly goal-assist dependent.

Questions

Who won Blue Jackets vs. Stars?

The Stars won 3–1 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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